نشریه آمایش سرزمین
سال یازدهم شماره 2 (پاییز و زمستان 1398)

Urban societies are complex landscapes that face unbalanced and exogenous growth and are rapidly changing as a result of population growth and urbanization. That is to say, non-urban, large swaths of land are consumed by cities and urban settlements, and over time they are fragmented into smaller pieces. Therefore, the present study was designed to detect and evaluate changes in the landscape structure of Tabriz metropolitan area and to evaluate the performance of landscape metrics in analyzing changes. To this end, first the land use maps for 1984, 2000 and 2018 were prepared using Landsat satellite imagery. Then, in order to analyze the changes, a combination of Landscape metrics including NP, CA, PLAND, LPI, ED, MPS, LSI, and COHESION was computed at two levels of land class and landscape using Fragstats4.2 software. The results showed that the lands used for urban settlement during this period have had the most changes and growth, in contrast to agricultural farms, gardens and green-space which have had a downward trend and have been converted to other uses. Also, the number and density of patches have increased over time, leading to the fragmentation of the landscape. On the other hand, the average size of patches belonging to constructed lands and agricultural and horticultural lands respectively increased and decreased, and caused more distortion and complexity of Tabriz city landscape through an increase in the landscape shape index. In general, the analysis of land use maps and landscape metrics clearly reveals the effects of human activities and urbanization on the surrounding environment, and the results indicate that the landscape of Tabriz has got more granular, more complex and geometrically more irregular. Then, with this decreasing connectivity, it has become more fragmented.

Foresight analysis in land-use planning lets decision makers overcome complexity and reduce uncertainty through a focus on key drivers. This study attempts to identify the most important drivers of change in land use/cover planning in Gorgan Township with the participation of managers and academic experts towards a desired future. The approach is normative and the required data were obtained through investigation of scientific literature and land-use planning documents of Golestan Province. Interviews and meetings with experts also inform the process. Following a literature review, 77 effective factors on the future of land use/cover in the Province were identified. Among these, 22 representative factors were selected according to expert opinions. Two groups, totaling 70 people, consisting of managers of organizations in Golestan Province with links to land use planning and academic experts were asked to answer an online or in-person questionnaire of the effective factors. The structural analysis and cross-impact matrix were applied to the data. According to the result, the factors “Imperative policies”, “Technology”, “Governmental Services” and “Transportation and energy infrastructure” are the key drivers of change in land use/cover and affect the implementation of land-use planning in Gorgan Township. Both groups approved the "Imperative policies" as the most significant key driver which can affect other factors.

Due to the consequences of globalization, regional development, which has always been highly important in macro planning, requires new approaches that are flexible about regional change. Among these consequences is the emergence of powerful regional economies with high GDP that have drawn the attention of many planners to the concept of competitiveness. Using recently proposed approaches and the important aspects of the global economy, this study set out to explore this concept at the area level. The purpose of this study was to analyze movements and structural-functional relationships in order to develop a local pattern of clusters in Tehran province. This study was a developmental-applied research project in terms of purpose and an analytic-descriptive one in terms of methodology. The data collection was based on document analysis and library studies and the data was collected through note taking, available statistics, and documenting. Data analysis was carried out using cluster analysis and specialized index methods, and the results were used in identifying activity clusters after examining the natural capability of each county. The results of the analysis show that the pattern of activity in Tehran province is the metropolis-dominated cluster pattern, and the counties which are located in the province can be identified in the form of 5 regional-local clusters. The above mentioned clusters of activities can provide the basis for regional development in Tehran province by joint and purposeful planning based on the priorities offered in this article.

The qualitative study of the urbanization process indicates that inappropriate development has caused a great deal of damage to the urban landscape structure. The problem solving tool is planning the ecological networks as matter and energy pathways. Planning natural elements of the structure, including green and open spots and corridors, will guide the researcher toward achieving research goals such as the conservation and restoration of natural resources and the improvement of cybernetic forces to enhance performance sustainability, structural equilibrium, and habitat variability. The methodological model of research in the Karaj metropolis identified flexible elements to strengthen ecological processes. Then, adopting the ecological-sociological approach and forming the urban habitat network, it was applied for sustainability. GIS software was used to map and digitize the data, RS to capture satellite images, and FRAGSTATE 4.2 to analyze the metrics changes in the years 2008 and 2018. The results of Bayer spot changes were -7.98% for CA, +5.79% for NP, and -1.5% for Cohesion, while residential spot changes were -24.15% for CA, +26.16% for NP, -3.96% for Cohesion, and green-space spot changes were -38.8%  for CA, +275.5% for NP increase, and -34.0% for Cohesion. These indicated increased discontinuity, decreased natural bedding connectivity, and decreased ecological performance along with its adverse effect on social structure. Thus, using a nature-based planning, we can witness the network dynamics of natural/man-made communication/isolation networks over time, and by establishing a holistic, bio-ethical culture, we can overcome social vacuum. This way, Karaj can move in the excellent sustainable development path.

The discussion of environmental change is currently one of the most important challenges which the international community faces. This issue comprises one of the most extensive scientific, economic, social, and even political debates at different global levels. Severe and sustained droughts have threatened many parts of the globe at different times and have led to rapid and profound changes at the economic and social development levels. The Middle East, especially Iran, has been no exception in this regard. The drying up of water resources, including lakes, is a prominent feature of these changes that has caused problems for the surrounding habitats. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the status of development indicators in 22 cities in Urmia Lake catchment area. In recent decades, water level has decreased significantly and drought level has increased in this lake. This study is an applied research project in terms of purpose and a descriptive-analytical one in terms of methodology. Data and information were collected from sources and documents of the Census Bureau for the years 2006 and 2016. Also, Vikor method and Moran's spatial autocorrelation index in Arc Gis software were used for the data analysis. The results of the statistical calculations showed that the development levels in the catchment area have transformed dramatically over the last 10 years, from the cluster distribution of 2006 to the dispersed distribution pattern of 2016. Moreover, the employment rate has declined and the unemployment rate has increased.Comparing the various statistics, one can clearly see the negative effects of the Lake water level decline on catchment area counties over the last 10 years. The gradual decline in the Lake water level (followed by a decrease in the employment rate and an increase in the unemployment rate) is the main reason for the imbalance in the development of the region.

Balancing the Spatial structure and determining the future urban network are the fundamental missions of spatial planning. As the main organizing elements of space, cities are organized within the urban network form. Urban network is assessed based on the agreement between form and function dimensions. The effectiveness of various models can be investigated through an analysis of their relationships. Accordingly, the study at hand has been carried out to analyze the urban morphology in order to accord the morphological and functional dimensions of Hormozgan province urban network. The study is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of methodology. The analytic indices of the study for Hormozgan province urban network morphology include road network, the distance between settlements, urban population, and types of services. The analytic instrument for the attainment of the purpose of the study is the Inward Distance Weighted (IDW) model within ARC GIS 10-4 software. The obtained results show that Hormozgan province urban network morphology follows four patterns, namely mono-centric, polycentric, linear and isolated. The location of these patterns in the province indicates the relationship between the location and the network morphology. As the large cities of the province are located near the sea, the mono-centric and polycentric patterns have been formed under the influence of the sea factor. However, the isolated and linear patterns are located in both the islands of the province and the mountainous areas or intermountain plateaus. Ultimately, the study shows that the lack of agreement between the form and the function weakens the connection and interaction of the interconnected areas. This lack of agreement reduces the fulfillment of the urban network’s use of neighboring opportunities and decreases the network effectiveness.

As the most essential element of life, water has long been regarded as an indicator of development because it is inextricably linked to the sustainability of human societies, especially the socio-economic function of rural settlements. The main purpose of this study is to explain and root out the causes of groundwater resource draw-down in relation to the socio-economic structure of rural areas. The main issue is that as population growth and demand have increased (to meet the needs of rural communities), excessive exploitation and pressure on groundwater resources have been on the rise. The research data were collected through document analysis and field study. Next, the longitudinal statistics of 40 observational wells (1984-2014) were combined with quantitative observations and interviews with subject matter experts. These were then analyzed through descriptive-analytical methods using inferential statistics and GIS software. Research findings show that the implementation of land reform program, the increase of number of farmers, deep well drilling, the development of irrigated area, and the change of production method had a relationship with unnecessary exploitation and draw-dawn in groundwater level in the research area. The result of the study illustrates the fact that as the population has increased threefold in the living space of the plains, the farms have been fragmented, and numerous deep wells have been drilled, the groundwater level in the aquifer has drawdown to -22 m.