- سال بیست و چهارم شماره 1 (بهار 1399)
- تاریخ انتشار: 1398/12/11
- تعداد عناوین: 7
پهنه بندی زراعی-بوم شناختی اراضی کشاورزی استان گلستان جهت کشت باقلا (Vicia faba L) با استفاده از میانگین وزنی مرتب (OWA)صفحات 1-19
لازمه ی تولید و مدیریت زراعی خوب، انتخاب گیاه و نیز مکان مناسب برای آن است. با مطالعه ی بوم شناختی، پتانسیل محیطی در مناطق مختلف مشخص و حداکثر بهره برداری از آن ها می شود. در این پژوهش، با استفاده از روش میانگین وزنی مرتب، مکان های مناسب برای کشت گیاه باقلا در شهرستان آق قلای استان گلستان انتخاب شده اند. برای این منظور، ابتدا نیازهای زراعی باقلا و متغیرهای اقلیمی و محیطی و برخی از عناصر خاک تعیین و باتوجه به آن ها نقشه های اولیه تهیه شد. سپس، برای استانداردسازی داده ها، روش فازی و برای وزن دهی به معیارها، روش تحلیل سلسله مراتبی (AHP) به کار رفت. با استفاده از روش میانگین وزنی مرتب در محیط نرم افزار IDRISI، نقشه ی تناسب اراضی باقلا تهیه شد. نتایج نشان داد که در وزن دهی معیارها با روش تحلیل سلسله مراتبی، دربین متغیرهای اقلیمی، بارندگی دوره ی رشد با مقدار 2876/0، متغیرهای محیطی برای شیب با مقدار 0/5396 و متغیرهای خاک EC با مقدار 0/3913، بیشترین ضرایب را کسب کردند. پهنه بندی کلی نشان داد که 55/78درصد از منطقه بسیار مستعد، 27/82درصد مستعد، 12/23درصد نیمه مستعد و تقریبا 4/15 درصد غیرمستعد هستند که درکل نشان می دهند که 83/67درصد شهرستان عوامل اقلیمی و فیزیوگرافی و عناصر خاک مناسب برای کشت باقلا را دارد.کلیدواژگان: توپوگرافی، روش تحلیل سلسله مراتبی، شهرستان آق قلا، میانگین وزنی مرتب
در سال های اخیر، ایران شاهد تغییرات اقلیمی است که بر بخش کشاورزی تاثیر زیادی گذاشته و به شکل خشکسالی نمایان شده است. یکی از استان های کشور که با این پدیده مواجه بوده، استان اصفهان است. بنابراین، در پژوهش حاضر، با استفاده از ماتریس سوات (SWOT)، نقاط قوت، ضعف، فرصتها و تهدیدهای پیش روی سازگاری کشاورزان کوچک مقیاس با شرایط خشکسالی در استان اصفهان شناسایی و برای بهبود مدیریت آن، راهبردهای مناسب تدوین و پیشنهاد داده می شود. جامعه ی آماری این پژوهش 110 کارشناس کشاورزی صاحب نظر در حوزه ی مدیریت خشکسالی در استان اصفهان بود که ازبین آن ها، 88 نفر به عنوان نمونه انتخاب شدند. ابزار اصلی این تحقیق پرسشنامه است که روایی محتوایی آن ازطریق استادان توسعه ی کشاورزی دانشگاه تهران و پایایی آن به روش آلفای کرونباخ تایید شد. در ابتدا، نقاط ضعف، قوت، فرصت و تهدید شناسایی شدند. در مرحله ی بعد، تحلیل فضای استراتژیک نتایج نشان داد که بیشترین وضعیت استقرارپذیری راهبردهای سازگاری با خشکسالی در ناحیه ی ST قرار میگیرد. با استفاده از ماتریس TOWS، راهبردهای سازگاری کشاورزی در شرایط خشکسالی نیز تدوین و معرفی شدند.کلیدواژگان: تاب آوری، سازگاری، تغییرات اقلیمی، خشکسالی، استان اصفهان
امروزه، تغییر کاربری اراضی و پوشش زمین به چالش مهمی در بسیاری از کشورها تبدیل شده است. این تغییرات تاثیر مستقیمی بر اجزای محیط زیست، ازجمله خاک، آب و اتمسفر، دارد. این موضوع باعث تغییر در پوشش سطح زمین و تبدیل عوارض طبیعی زمین، مانند خاک و پوشش گیاهی به بافت شهری می شود. باتوجه به اینکه شهر لاهیجان همانند بسیاری از شهرهای ایران در سال های اخیر با گسترش ساخت وسازها مواجه بوده، دچار تغییر و تحولات قابل توجهی درزمینه ی کاربری اراضی شده است. هدف پژوهش حاضر مدل سازی تغییرات کاربری اراضی با استفاده از پرسپترون چندلایه است. این مدل سازی با استفاده از یک سری متغیرهای مستقل که در محدوده ی موردمطالعه وجود دارد و نقشه های تغییرات که طی سال های مختلف تهیه شده اند، نقشه های پتانسیل انتقال را تهیه می کند. در این راستا، برای اجرای این مدل به منظور شناسایی مکان هایی که بیشترین پتانسیل را برای تغییر کاربری اراضی در آینده دارند، از نقشه های تغییرات کاربری بین سال های 1397-1389 به عنوان متغیر وابسته و چهار متغیر مستقل فاصله از جاده، فاصله از شالیزار، فاصله از جنگل و باغات و فاصله از اراضی ساخته شده به عنوان متغیرهای تاثیرگذار برای شبیه سازی تغییرات کاربری اراضی بهره گرفته شده است. نتایج حاصل از این پژوهش تولید نقشه های پتانسیل انتقال با شاخص ارزیابی صحت مدل 84.58 است که نشان می دهد متغیر فاصله از اراضی ساخته شده بیشترین تاثیر و فاصله از جاده کمترین تاثیر را بر تغییرات کاربری اراضی دارند.کلیدواژگان: تغییر کاربری اراضی، مدل سازی، پرسپترون چند لایه، لاهیجان
هرچند روستاهای پیرامون کلانشهرها در مسیر توسعه ی خود بسیار از رشد و گسترش شهر مرکزی و روابط با آن متاثر هستند، این تاثیر بیشتر به شکل افزایش جمعیت و گسترش کالبدی سکونتگاههای روستایی پیرامون شهرها تجلی مییابد و کمتر نشانی از توسعه ی اقتصادی و اجتماعی در چارچوب توسعه ی پایدار روستایی را با خود دارند. این روستاها معمولا گرفتار چالشهای متعدد اقتصادی، کالبدی، اجتماعی و زیست محیطی می شوند. در این راستا، یکی از راه حلهای مطرح شده برای مقابله با این نابسامانیها، بهرهگیری از الگوی «رشد هوشمند» است. درواقع، رشد هوشمند استراتژی عاقلانهای برای جهت دادن به پراکندگی به سمت پایداری و توسعه ی هدفمند است. روش تحقیق توصیفی-تحلیلی و شیوه ی جمعآوری اطلاعات مبتنیبر مطالعات اسنادی و مطالعات میدانی است. هدف مقاله ی حاضر، در گام نخست شناسایی و بومیسازی زیرمعیارهای رشد هوشمند براساس ماهیت روستاهای کشور و در گام دوم ارزیابی روستاهای پیرامون کلانشهر تهران براساس معیارهای رشد هوشمند است. بنابراین، با بهرهگیری ازنظر خبرگان حوزه ی مطالعات روستایی، 74 نماگر برای ارزیابی روستاها مشخص شد. نتایج به دست آمده از آزمون رادار نشان میدهد که براساس طیف پرسکات آلن، هیچ یک از روستاها در وضعیت رشد هوشمند نیستند و بیشتر در طیف رشد غیرهوشمند و رشد غیرهوشمند بالقوه قرار دارند. همچنین، ازنظر سطح رشد هوشمند، روستاهای موردمطالعه در چهار طبقه تقسیم می شوند. روستاهای لالان و امامه بالا در شمال تهران، باغ کمش و قلعه نو املاک در شرق و کردزار در غرب درمقایسه با سایر روستاها از وضعیت مطلوبتری برخوردارند.کلیدواژگان: رشد هوشمند، رشد پراکنده، روستاهای پیراشهری، کلانشهر تهران
در شرایط ایران، فرصت زمانی برای اصلاح جهت گیری های مدیریتی در حوزه ی محیط زیست محدود است و از طرفی، حتی دستگاه های ذی ربط اولویت های خود را به تفکیک نمی دانند و یا از ارتباط اولویت ها با سایر دستگاه ها و در سطح کلان طرح توسعه ی استان آگاه نیستند. در چنین شرایطی، معرفی پیشران های مهم در حوزه ی محیط زیست اولین و اساسی ترین گام برای هدایت بخشیدن به سناریوهای مدیریتی صحیح در آینده است. بدیهی است که باتوجه به جنبه های مختلف محیط زیست، پیشران های بسیار متنوعی نیز مطرح است که بررسی همه ی آن ها ممکن نیست. بنابراین، در این مطالعه، به غربالگری پیشران ها براساس میزان تاثیرگذاری و تاثیرپذیری از سایر پیشران ها، به عنوان پیشران های موثر، کلیدی و درعین حال مستقل از سایر پیشران ها در حوزه ی مدیریت محیط زیست در استان خراسان جنوبی توجه شد. روش به کار رفته در این پژوهش، غربالگری پیشران ها و تحلیل ساختاری MicMac است که برای انجام آن، از نظرات متخصصین دانشگاهی و دستگاه های اجرایی مرتبط استفاده شد. براساس نتایج، مهم ترین پیشران ها در اثرات مستقیم و غیرمستقیم و اثرات احتمالی که باتوجه به آن ها تحولات آینده کنترل می شود، پنج مورد بودند. این پیشران ها به ترتیب اهمیت عبارت اند از: ایجاد ضمانت اجرایی قوانین مربوطه، همکاری های بین دستگاهی، گردش آزاد اطلاعات، تغییر نگرش تصمیم گیران و جایگیری درست سازمان محیط زیست در تصمیم گیری ها. جمع اثرات مستقیم و غیرمستقیم و محتمل پیشران ها به ترتیب 3007، 2805، 2135، 1938 و 1572 برآورد شد. نرخ پرشدگی ماتریس اثرات 86/23 درصد است که شامل 153 عدد 1 (اثرات ضعیف)، 113 عدد 2 (اثرات متوسط)، 89 عدد 3 (اثرات قوی) و 8 حرف P (اثرات احتمالی) می شود. همچنین 9 پیشران با وابستگی زیاد و تاثیرگذاری کم (پیشران های پاسخ و یا خروجی) شناسایی و معرفی شدند که پایش وضعیت آن ها به عنوان معیاری برای سنجش میزان موفقیت مدیریت پیشنهاد داده می شود. نتایج این مطالعه ممکن است مورد توجه مدیران و تصمیم گیران برای اولویت بندی اهداف، سیاست ها و فعالیت ها قرار گیرد.کلیدواژگان: تحلیل ماتریس اثرات، اثرگذاری، تاثیرپذیری، مدیریت محیط زیست، استان خراسان جنوبی
هتل ها یکی از نیازهای اساسی گردشگران در هر سفر به شمار می روند و حدود نیمی از مخارج آنان صرف اقامت در مقصد می شود. هر هتل می تواند برای تعیین قیمت خود راهبردهای گوناگونی را به کار گیرد؛ به طور مثال یا محصول خود را با یک قیمت رقابتی پایین به بازار عرضه کند و یا با افزودن ویژگی ها و امکانات اضافی، میزان قیمت برای هر شب اقامت را بالا ببرد. هدف این مقاله مطالعه ی عوامل تاثیرگذار بر نرخ هتل و ارزش گذاری هتل ها براساس ویژگی های مازاد است. در این مقاله، برای شناخت واکنش گردشگران دربرابر ویژگی های مختلف هتل، از روش قیمت گذاری هدانیک استفاده شده است. فرضیه های این پژوهش ازطریق روش رگرسیونی حداقل مربعات معمولی و با استفاده از داده های جمع آوری شده از 265 هتل سنجیده شده اند. باتوجه به اطلاعات به دست آمده، وجود منابع فیزیکی مانند استخر، فضای سبز و پارکینگ هیچ مزیت رقابتی را برای هتل های ایران ایجاد نمی کند؛ درحالی که ساخت مجموعه ی ورزشی به متمایز شدن محصول عرضه شده ی هتل ها کمک می کند. طبق تابع تحقیق، 62 درصد از تغییرات متغیر وابسته، یعنی قیمت، توسط متغیرهای مستقل پژوهش تعیین می شود و قرارگیری در شهر تهران بیشترین ارزش رقابتی را درمقایسه با شهرهای موردبررسی دیگر ایجاد می کند.کلیدواژگان: گردشگری، مقصد گردشگری، هتل، راهبرد قیمتگذاری، روش قیمتگذاری هدانیک
دستیابی به مکان های سرزنده و پویا همواره یکی از دغدغه های مهم برنامه ریزان، طراحان و مدیران شهری بوده است. این مفهوم در محله های شهری که به دلیل تداوم حضور ساکنان، کیفیت روابط انسان-مکان و انسان-انسان در سطوح بالاتری شکل می گیرد، متاثر از عوامل مرتبط با پیوند انسان با مکان زیست خود، نظیر دلبستگی مکانی، است. این پژوهش تاثیر مفهوم چندبعدی دلبستگی مکانی و ابعاد آن بر سرزندگی محله های شهری را بررسی می کند. روش تحقیق آمیخته (کیفی-کمی) و ازنظر هدف کاربردی است. در بخش کیفی، ابزار گردآوری اطلاعات مصاحبه ی نیمه سازمان یافته و روش تحلیل کدگذاری و تقلیل چهارمرحله ای مفاهیم بوده است که درنتیجه، 17 مولفه و 5 بعد برای متغیر دلبستگی مکانی استخراج شد. در بخش کمی، داده ها ازطریق پرسشنامه گردآوری و تحلیل داده ها ازطریق نرم افزارSPSS و ترسیم معادله ی ساختاری روابط متغیرها در نرم افزارAmos Graphic انجام شده است. نتایج بخش کمی ضمن تایید برازش مدل طراحی شده ی متغیرهای اصلی پژوهش (مقدار =4/908 و RMSEA= 0/100)، اثر مستقیم و معنادار دلبستگی مکانی بر سرزندگی شهری را تایید می کند (ضریب استاندارد مسیر 806/0 و ضریب معناداری کمتر از 0/0001). همچنین، مدل اثرات مستقیم ابعاد پنج گانه ی دلبستگی مکانی بر سرزندگی شهری، اثر مستقیم ابعاد هویت مکانی، پیوندهای عاطفی شناختی و وابستگی مکانی بر سرزندگی محله های شهری را تایید می کند و نشان می دهد که هویت مکانی موثرترین بعد تاثیرگذار دلبستگی مکانی بر سرزندگی محله های شهری است.کلیدواژگان: دلبستگی مکانی، سرزندگی شهری، هویت مکانی، اهواز
Agroecological zoning of agricultural lands in Golestan province for Faba bean (Vicia faba L.) cultivation by ordered weighted average (OWA)Pages 1-19Introduction
Faba bean is one of the main winter crops in Golestan province (northeast Iran), with an estimated production of about 106,284 tons of green pods and 7256 tons of dry grain while the harvesting land area is about 1838 ha. Topographic characteristics, climatic conditions and the soil quality of an area are the most important parameters to evaluate land suitability. To develop successful cropping systems, it is necessary to understand how a crop such as faba bean responds to biological, chemical, physical, and climatic variables, and how this response can be influenced by management. Accordingly, farmers can improve their production in this district, and at the end of the study, the distribution and areas of land suitable for faba bean cultivation in Aq Qala were determined. In addition, this research provides information at a local level that could be used by farmers to select cropping patterns in accordance with suitability results.Materials and methods
The study areas of the research include agricultural lands and rangelands of Golestan province Using 1: 50,000 maps of the national cartographic center of Iran, we created a 20 m digital elevation model (DEM) with a topo-to-raster function. In this study, the first agro-ecological requirements of faba bean were determined according to scientific resources. Several parameters were considered in this study, including the annual average, minimum and maximum temperatures, annual precipitation, slope, elevation, and some soil properties such as organic matter, pH, EC, texture, phosphorus, potassium and calcium. The last 12-year climatic data were gathered from 4 meteorological stations and 21 rain gauge stations in the Golestan province. The mean temperatures were calculated from daily mean minimum and maximum temperature data. The rainfall and temperature data of the whole province were used to interpolate and draw map of annual rainfall, and annual average, maximum and minimum temperature by geostatistical and interpolation methods. The slope and elevation information was obtained from the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) using GIS software. The standardization of data was used from fuzzy method and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used for weighting the criteria. Finally, using ordered weighted average (OWA) in the IDRISI software, faba bean cultivation potential map was prepared.Results and Discussion
The results indicated that the most important variables, according to their specific weighting, were annual precipitation during the growing season (0.2876), slope (0.5396) and EC (0.3913). The digital environmental layers overlaid and integration in GIS media, then zoning of lands were carried out in 4 classes (highly suitable, suitable, less suitable and non-suitable). The study area includes different classes with diverse capacities for faba been cultivation comprising: a highly suitable potential, which constitutes 55.78% of the total area; a suitable class, 27.82%; a less suitable, 12.23%; and non-suitable, 4.17%. The final maps showed that more than 80% of agricultural lands of township are suitable for faba bean production. This research provides information at a local level that could be used by farmers and decision makers to select cropping patterns in accordance with their suitability. The topography, soil characteristics and climatic conditions were the most important determinant parameters of this evaluation. Our results revealed that 86.60% of the land area is suitable for faba bean cultivation. From the land suitability analysis, it was concluded that, in general, some nutrient contents of the soil are low or high for the study region. In addition, the research results indicated that the main limiting factors are high EC and low rainfall.Conclusion
In conclusion, a combination of GIS, AHP and OWA is a practical and applicable method for determining land suitability for faba bean crops. In this study, the time-saving during the development of the land suitability map for faba bean was considerable. This method is almost a new application in Iran for land suitability analysis. However, decision makers should consider the side effects of applying these methods in the determination of suitable areas for crop growing. The result in of this study indicated that the OWA is a valuable approach in land suitability assessment, therefore, we suggest that the OWA should be used with AHP in future land suitability evaluation. We recommend that similar studies should use other parameters such as relative humidity, wind speed, solar radiation and heavy soil metals.Keywords: Analytic Hierarchy Process, Aq Qala Township, Ordered weighted average, Topography
Formulating and analysis of adaptation strategies of farmers to drought conditions in Isfahan province using TOWS matrixPages 21-47Introduction
In recent years, the world has been witnessing climate change which is mostly due to socio-economic activities of man and in turn producing greenhouse gas emissions. These actions have been led to global warming, melting of glaciers and extreme variability of weather indicators such as rainfall and temperature. These changes in our country have also shown itself in phenomena like snowfall shortage, devastating floods and storms, terrible and out-of-season storms, and unprecedented summer heat. These Climate fluctuations have had significant effects on different sub-sectors of the economy, especially agriculture, and the phenomenon of climate change in agriculture has shown itself at the first step in different forms of drought. Increasing farmers' resilience and adaptability to climate change are the major strategies that many countries have taken into account to face and confront the negative consequences of drought. One of the provinces that are facing drought phenomenon in Isfahan Province. For example, conflicts among farmers on water shortages and water transfers from this province to the neighboring provinces and crisis in Zayandeh Rood River are just some proof showing the severity of the situation.
Based on the present study, the SWOT Matrix was used to identify the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats of small-scale farmers' adaptation to drought conditions in Isfahan province. Therefore, appropriate strategies were developed and proposed to achieve this objective. The statistical population of this research consisted of 110 experts working in the field of drought management in Isfahan province out of which, 88 people were selected on the basis of the Krejcie & Morgan table. The main instrument of this study was a questionnaire whose content validity was confirmed by the opinions of an expert panel in the Department of Agricultural Development and Management at the University of Tehran and its reliability was confirmed by Cronbach's alpha coefficients. In order to find appropriate strategies, the TOWS matrix was developed and used in this study. This method integrates scientific and theoretical opinions with application remarks. This method is innovative and provides lights to workable strategies based on a reasonable and appropriate framework.
Result and Discussion
Based on the results of study, the most important opportunities for the adaptation of small-scale farmers to drought condition were the "implementing rainwater harvesting programs", "improving urban potable and green-space water management " and "national support for all strategies related to adaptability to climate change in formulating appropriate policies and regulations" It is while the most important threats found to be "weak governmental administrative works for recognition and management of climate change consequences", "insufficient supportive credit for drought management" and "insufficient attention by government to extension education programs related to drought management", In terms of the internal environment, the most important strength was found to be "Increasing farmers assets and their productive power, “cooperation of farmers to manage drought" and "Strengthening farmers Organizations ". Besides, the most important weaknesses were identified as “the low willingness of farmers to apply technologies for reducing greenhouse gases emission", "high cost of irrigation equipment to reduce water consumption" and "decreasing farms resilience towards climate change".
Drought covers about 80% of Isfahan province and 22.5% of the province has been faced with severe drought. A survey of drought conditions over the past years indicates that most parts of Isfahan province are affected by drought. The drought has had many detrimental effects on different parts of the province, including agriculture, industry, services, the environment, public and cultural green spaces. Desertification, air pollution, and dust generation, relative humidity reduction, soil moisture depletion, rangeland wildfire, salinization and depletion of groundwater resources, damage to historic structures are some examples of the negative consequences drought in Isfahan province. In addition, the direct effects of water scarcity on agriculture and other socio-economic sectors are evident. Outbreaks of pests and plant and animal diseases, increased agricultural migration to cities, loss of productive livestock, reduced aquaculture, and the crisis of access to potable water and reduction of farm productivity in rural areas have been observed and reported as some of the effects of drought. Accordingly, the present study was conducted to find appropriate coping strategies. However, in analyzing the strategic space, the results showed that the most efficient and adaptive strategies in the Jihad Agriculture Organization of Isfahan Province are placed in the ST area. Moreover, using a TOWS matrix, some other agricultural adaptive strategies were formulated to be used in the drought conditions of the province. SO strategies recommend operations such as Diversification of Resistant Crops, Improving interaction between actors in the agricultural production chain and Proper management of floods through water harvesting projects. Under ST strategies operations such as paying attention to support programs and subsidizing drought management among farmers, Support diversification of livelihood investments for agriculture in times of drought crisis and strict monitoring of groundwater harvesting through the strengthening of aquifers are suggested. WO strategies focus on operations like Using modern irrigation equipment in agriculture through government support for water management projects, Improving specialized drought information for farmers by improving the efficiency of technical-engineering companies in providing services to farmers and Reduce farmers' migration by supporting livelihood adaptation strategies in government programs and projects. WT strategies also place its attention on operations such as Convergence of public and private sectors in implementing drought management programs and providing specialized information to farmers, Change the cropping pattern with the aim of developing drought-resistant varieties, Defining a clear role for farmers in drought management in agricultural development programs.Keywords: Resilience
Population growth and migration of (from or to) cities has led to the construction of unstructured and large changes in the spatial structure and expansion of cities. This causes changes in the surface of the earth and the conversion of natural effects of the earth such as soil and vegetation to the urban texture. So, the first consequence of the expansion of cities is land use change. Today, land use change and land cover have become a major challenge in many countries. Hence, the study of these changes plays a major role in the world's environmental studies. In order to better manage natural and human ecosystems and develop long-term planning, it is necessary to model land use changes and predict future changes.Methodology
The research method is applied in terms of purpose and the nature and method of descriptive-analytic research, and the method of data collection in this study is also a library research. In this study, for land use changes during the 29-year period, images were first provided from the website of the Geological Survey of the United States. Then, using ENVI software, the pre-processing operation was performed to apply atmospheric and radiometric corrections. Also, the specimens of educational and supervised classification of images for land use in four levels (lands, rice field, forests, gardens and Water zone) were studied. Then, in the IDRISI SELVA software, simulation was used to predict future changes using the perceptron neural network.Results and Discussion
Before the main analysis of the data and the extraction of the information, it is necessary to perform the pre-processing operation. Then several time satellite images used in the research after atmospheric and radiometric corrections were used to prepare the land use map and Maximum likelihood algorithm was used to classify the desired classes. The selection of effective variables in predicting urban growth is an important and useful information for the user to understand the desirability of land use change. Therefore, in the present study, distance variables from the road are considered as independent static variables, and distance from the landfill, distance from the land, and the distance from the forest and gardens are considered as independent variables were used. Among the models that are used in the simulation of land use change, neural networks are multilayered perceptron. Therefore, this model was used to simulate land use changes in this study. Finally, according to the Kramer coefficient, the distance from the road has the least effect and the distance variable of the land has the greatest impact on land use change and transmission potential modeling. Then, user-potential mapping maps were generated through multi-layer perceptron neural networks for an 8-year time span. Also, in the maps produced, regions with a warm color spectrum have the greatest potential for change, and are more vulnerable to areas with a cool color spectrum.Conclusion
Today, land use change and land cover have become a major challenge in many countries. These changes have a direct impact on environmental components such as soil, water and atmosphere. Which This causes changes in the surface of the earth and the conversion of natural effects of the earth such as soil and vegetation to the urban texture. Due to the fact that the city of Lahijan, like many other cities in Iran, has faced expansion of construction in recent years, so, today, the city has undergone significant changes in land use. The purpose of this study is to model and predict land use changes using the Multilayer Perceptron, . In this regard, in order to implement this model, Landsat classified satellite images for the four periods of 1989, 2000, 2010 and 2018, as well as four independent variables including distance from the road, distance from Shalizar, distance from the forest and gardens, And and distance from the land, were built to simulate land use changes. The study resulted in the generation of transmission potential mapping with the 84.58 accuracy index, which shows that the distance from the land constructed the greatest impact and the distance from the road has the least effect on land use change variations.Keywords: land use change, Modeling, Multilayer Perceptron, Lahijan
With the growth of urbanization and the expansion of cities, suburban villages are influenced by their central city. The size of agricultural land is reduced, will change to residential and industrial use, and will shift to urban features, though they still have many differences with the city. In fact, the Rural Space Organization is transforming, growing and developing in a way that retains some of its traditional features and embraces many of the characteristics of urbanization. In this context, it can be said that the suburban villages are strongly influenced by the growth and development of the cities and their relations with their development, but these effects are manifested mainly in the increase of population and physical expansion of the rural settlements around the cities, and they have little to do with economic and social development within the framework of sustainable rural development. These villages usually face numerous challenges such as environmental pollution, inadequate land use allocation, excessive use of cars, unnecessary exploitation of resources, shifting the economic structure from a production-based economy to a consumer-dependent economy, weakening of village cultural customs and collapse of longstanding traditions of rural cooperation and participation, that pose many problems in achieving sustainable development of rural settlements. The growth of suburban settlements in the metropolitan area of Tehran, rather than being the result of new rural migrants or natural population growth, is the result of redistribution and relocation of the urban population within the metropolitan area of Tehran. One of the forces driving such developments is the uncontrolled policies of urban growth. The existence of such a trend demonstrates the need to plan and formulate a proper pattern for the villages in the suburbs in order to avoid sporadic and unstable growth concequences and to achieve a quality of life. However, smart growth strategy is being considered as a solution to environmental, social, economic and physical problems.Methodology
The purpose of this study is to identify ten indices of smart growth based on the typology of rural areas of the country and to evaluate the villages around Tehran metropolis based on these indices. The general approach of this study is quantitative and data collection based on library-documentary data and field survey. Indicators of smart growth pattern matching the characteristics of rural areas of the country were identified by experts in the field of rural studies and the basis of questionnaire design was used as the main research tool in field studies. 74 indicators were finally accepted by experts in the form of ten smart growth criteria. Based on distance variables, population between 1000-1000, population growth rate above 3% and having a physical development plan, 15 villages were identified. Cronbach's alpha technique was used to measure the reliability of the research instrument and the value of 0.805 was obtained, which indicates appropriate reliability of the research instrument. To determine sample size, Cochran formula was used. Considering the size of the statistical population of the villages in the study area which is 41845 people, 378 heads of households were selected as sample population.Results and discussion
Radar test was used to assess the intelligence level of suburban villages of Tehran metropolis.
Radar test results based on Prescott Allen's five spectrum show that the villages are in two situations; 7 villages in non-intelligent growth potential and 8 villages in potential non-intelligent growth status, and none of the villages are in medium status or smart growth. The results of one-way analysis of variance showed that there was a significant difference between all villages in terms of smart growth pattern at alpha level of 0.05. Based on the Tukey test, it was found that the villages were divided into 4 floors. The villages of Zaman Abad, Ibrahim Abad and Sarbandan are on the first floor and tend to be sparse. Chehelghaz, Rye and Nouchman ghale villages are on the second floor; Abdul Abad Ghale, Qeshlagh Mallard and Mehrabad villages are on the third floor; Bagh Kamesh, Noamlak Ghale, Kordzar, Emameh Balah and Lalan are on the fourth floor; and in trendy condition, they are on the path to smart growth.Conclusion
Although the suburban rural areas are heavily influenced by the growth and expansion of cities and their relationships with their development path, this impact is more pronounced in terms of population growth and physical expansion of rural settlements around the cities, and less as a sign of economic and socioeconomic development. Within the framework of sustainable development, they have their own village. In this study, we tried to evaluate the suburban villages of Tehran metropolis based on the smart growth model principles. To this end, based on existing research literature on the evaluation and analysis of smart growth components with special emphasis on rural areas, 74 items in the form of 10 principles including hybrid land use, intensive development, quality housing, attractive housing, pedestrian, environmental quality, optimized transportation, internal development, social participation and economic investment were designed and analyzed.
It can be deduced from the results of radar test and Alcan Prescott intelligence levels segmentation, that the villages under study are in no way in the position of a smart growth and potential smart growth (good) model and the process of rural development is more sprawl and potential dispersed growth (weak). Therefore, it can be said that the smart growth paradigm in the study areas has not returned to its position as a spatial strategy in regional and local planning policies, and is more susceptible to change, unintended and dispersed growth due to Tehran metropolitan policies and programs
The growth of suburban settlements in the metropolitan area of Tehran, is the result of redistribution and relocation of the urban population rather than being the result of new rural migrants or natural population in this metorpolitan.Keywords: smart growth, sprawl growth, Tehran metropolis, peri-urban villages
Explanation of Effective Drivers in Environmental Management of South Khorasan Province Using Structural AnalysisExplanation of Effective Drivers in Environmental Management of South Khorasan Province Using Structural AnalysisPages 109-127Introduction
In Iran,time is limited and it is always too late to modify management attitudes in the fields of environment. On the one hand, the relevant agencies do not even know their priorities separately or are unaware relationship of their priorities with other agencies, while at the macro level, they are unaware of the province's development plan. So, important drivers in the field of environment are the first and most important steps in guiding scenarios of proper management.Methodology
First, a list of effective drivers of environmental management in the South Khorasan province was collected from some specialist and experts using Delphi, followed by two-dimensional matrices containing quantitative matrices to quantify the driver’s relationships and interpretations. The axes of influence and dependence are were used. Therefore, according to the position of each driver with these two criteria in the matrix, five types of drivers are defined. Drivers screening based on the degree of influence and dependence of other drivers as effective , key and independent drivers in the field of environmental management in South Khorasan province were studied. The method used was MicMac Structural Analysis, which was used by academic experts and related executives. In so doing, the team created a common language which will served them as the process continued. In most cases, it also allowed the team to redefine certain variables and refine the analysis of the system. Lastly, experience shows that the ideal percentage of the matrix to be filled-in is around 20%.
Comparing the rankings of the variables from the various classifications (direct, indirect and potential) is a rich source of information. It allows the team to confirm the importance of certain variables as well as to reveal those variables which play a dominant role in the system, and which would have remained undetected if they had only been compared directly. The information obtained by influence and dependence of each of the variables can be displayed in two-dimensional diagrams containing the vertical (affective) and horizontal (affective) axes. This method can identify the most effective drivers in the system and study the different roles played by these drivers (Godet & Durance, 2011).Results and discussion
By aggregating and analyzing the views of a panel of experts in the field who know the topic in MicMac 39 software, drivers were identified as key, effective, effective and dependence drivers. The comments were considered as MicMac inputs, with a filling rate of 23.86% including 153 one (weak influence), 113 two (moderate influence), 89 three (strong influence) and 8 to P (possible influence). The sum of direct and indirect and probable influence of drivers were estimated to be 3007, 2805, 2135, 1938 and 1572, respectively. This matrix has 100% stability with two replications which shows high validity of the questionnaire and its answers. The direct influence (a) and indirect (b) influence of the drivers on each other are shown in Fig. 1.
Driver 5 (D5: creating environmental law enforcement and warranties) and D1 (co-operation between related agencies to prevent any re-work) in four ways are among the most effective and determining factors. In the next step, the influence of the drivers of the free flow of information and sharing the results of studies of all environmental-related organizations to public or academic expertise (D33), changing the real attitude of decision-makers in embracing intellectual physical potential, and creative indigenous peoples of the region (D29) and the environmental agency's correct placement in decision making (before doing the project and any action not after it is finalized or completed!) (D6) were more influence drivers respectively.
Given that the distribution of drivers is in the axis of influence and dependency as L shape, the system under study is balanced and it is possible to make planning for such a system (Arcade et al., 1999; Erfani and Mircheraghkhani, 2018)Conclusion
Five main and key drivers of the system under study were identified, the first two of which relate to political and institutional domains that are in line with Erfani and Mircheraghkhani’s (2018) study. In this study, monitoring of nine identified response drivers is the main indicator for revealing the province’s environmental management status, which is recommended for future studies. These indicators can explain the environmental status of the province and can be considered as a criterion for determining the actual performance and efficiency of the agencies. It is also recommended to continue the present study and to complete four more steps from the LIPSOR School to identify conflicts of interest between relevant stakeholders, scenarios building and predict the future.
Each year, the performance statistics of the agencies are presented based on the indicators set by the agencies themselves and the overhead agencies, and they are more likely to be defined in a way that may not adequately represent the agencies’ performance, and thus make the agencies less judgmental to fall. For example, the index of mountain tenure has clearly increased over the last few years. Combating mountain tenure alone does not indicate management efficiency, but rather the absence of mountain tenure and the return of shifting areas given to conditions close to the baseline status is effective either. Therefore, change in decision makers' attitudes (D6) and efforts in problem solving have been introduced as one of the key drivers in this study (Fig. 1).Keywords: Analysis of Impacts Matrix, influence, dependence, South Khorasan Province, Environmental management
This study investigates the impact of a variety of attributes or ‘characteristics’ on the rates charged for hotel rooms in Iran. The aim of this paper is to provide information for tourist destinations through an analysis of the valuation of the location implicit in the price of accommodation. Using OLS model (that is, taking into account that demand valuation can vary along the hotel price distribution), the authors find that huge price differences between 5-star hotels and the rest, is coupled with practically of no difference between 1-star and 2-star hotels. Other attributes with a significant effect on price are towns. With regard to the valuation of location, a hotel in Tehran location is valued much more at higher percentiles.
The study of hotel-room pricing is complex because of seasonality, different price regimes (full-board, half-board, bed & breakfast), and discounts and supplements on various grounds (additional bed for children, single room, view of the sea, additional room equipment such as air-conditioning, television, or mini-bar).
The value of attributes and characteristics are unobserved, as they are not separately traded in any market. Only the overall prices of hotel rooms, including particular combinations of attributes are observed. Our analysis draws upon the hedonic-prices tradition of fitting statistical models to estimate the effect of attributes on price (early theoretical developments in hedonic prices are those of Lancaster 1966; Rosen, 1974.
Empirical applications in the tourist sector are found in Andersson, 2010; Chen and Rothschild, 2010; Castro and Ferreira, 2014; and Espinet, Coenders, and Fluvia 2003). The product a given hotel H is offering can be regarded as a set of attributes, which may consist of services (such as swimming pool, garden, television in the room), or characteristics (star category, town, year of first opening, number of rooms, etc):Hi = (qi1, qi2, qi3,…, qik,…, qim ) (1)
Where i= 1 … n represents the hotel and qik (k=1,…, m) each of its attributes.
Thus, the hedonic price function for each hotel is represented as:Pi = P(qi1, qi2, qi3,…,qik,…, qim ) (2)2.Methodology
This regression model offers us estimates of the homogeneous parameters between individuals and its application is justified by hedonic price theory. In the context of tourism, it is also easy to appreciate that the valuations individuals make of the physical characteristics (destination and time) of their accommodation differ according to their price. That is, it would be interesting to know the behavior of the explanatory variables along the price distribution. For this, an estimator is required that allows heterogeneous responses: the estimator stemming from the linear regression (βi). Furthermore, a median-based estimator is also attractive because it is less sensitive to outliers than a mean-based estimator. Therefore, the bias from unobserved characteristics (quality, renovation) should be smaller.
Dependent variable: Price
The per night price of a room in the case of hotels and of an entire unit in the case of hotel.
Explanatory variables:- Resort
Esfahan: a dummy variable that takes a value of one if the accommodation is located in Esfahan and zero otherwise.
Tabriz: a dummy variable that takes a value of one if the accommodation is located in Tabriz and zero otherwise.
Tehran: a dummy variable that takes a value of one if the accommodation is located in Tehran and zero otherwise.
Mashhad: a dummy variable that takes a value of one if the accommodation is located in Mashhad and zero otherwise, and etc.
One star: a dummy variable that takes a value of one if the hotel is one-star and zero otherwise.
Two stars: a dummy variable that takes a value of one if the hotel is two-star and zero otherwise, and etc.
- Type of room (Single, Double and Suite).
Rooms: number of hotel/apartment rooms.
- Swimming pool: a dummy variable that takes a value of one if the hotel has a swimming pool and zero otherwise.
- Car park: a dummy variable that takes a value of one if the hotel has a car park and zero otherwise.
- Garden/terrace: a dummy variable that takes a value of one if the hotel has a garden/terrace and zero otherwise.3.Results and Discussion
One of the most relevant characteristics ratios of a hotel to its price is star category. Figure 1 clearly shows that the greatest differences in price occur for 5-star hotels, while those with 1 and 2 stars hardly vary. Given the marked differences among the towns under study, the town in which the hotel is situated is another potentially very relevant variable.4.Conclusion
This article has identified some variables that affect the price paid by tourists in Iran hotels. The attributes or characteristics that allow hotels to increase price can also be seen as attributes that contribute to the differentiation of their offers.
The use of hedonic functions has allowed us to quantify the effects of each of the significant variables (town, star category, number of rooms, and availability of parking place) on price. Thus, hotel managers can make economic estimates of the impact of decisions concerning changes in these variables. This should make the results very useful to hotel managers, and to a lesser extent, to tour operators and public authoritiesKeywords: Tourism, Tourism Destination, Hotel, Pricing Strategy, Hedonic Pricing Method
Explaining the effectiveness of urban neighborhoods vitality among place attachment dimensions, Case study: Ahvaz cityPages 151-182Introduction
Achieving dynamic and vibrant locations has always been one of the major concerns of planners, designers and city managers. This concept in urban neighborhoods, formed at higher levels due to the continued presence of inhabitants as well as the quality of human-location and human-human relations, is influenced by the factors associated with human connection with its residential place, such as place attachment. This case study examines the effect of the multi-dimensional concept of place attachment and its dimension on the vitality of urban neighborhoods.
So the questions of research are:
What is the effect of place attachment of residents on vitality of Ahvaz city neighborhoods?
Which component of place attachment has more effect on vitality of Ahvaz city neighborhoods?Methodology
The method used in the study is a mixed research method (qualitative-quantitative) and practical in terms of purpose. In the qualitative section, the data gathering tool was a semi-organized interview with 26 people including 14 women and 12 men and a coding analysis method along with a four-step reduction of concepts. In the quantitative part, data was collected through a questionnaire, and data analysis was carried out using SPSS software and drawing the structural equation of variables’ relationships within Amos Graphic software. Statistical society was Ahvaz city residents and sample size was 392 respondents that had completed in selected neighborhood (Bagh-Sheykh and Kian-Abad) based on randomized population balancing method (respectively 101 and 291 questionnaire).Results and discussion
In the first step, qualitative semi-organized interview resulted in 17 components and 5 dimensions for the place attachment variable. Quantitative part of research shows that all 5 analyzed components of place attachment are greater than supposed average (3) and the lowest amount is for place dependence. Residents analysis of neighborhoods vitality is significantly greater than supposed average and in Bagh-Sheykh neighborhood, it is greater a little more than Kian-Abad, although this difference is in not statistically significant. While confirming the fit of the designed model of the main research variables (value χ^2⁄df =4.908 & RMSEA= 0.100), also, the results of the quantitative part supports the direct and significant impact of place attachment on urban vitality (the standard coefficient of the route is 0.806 and the significance coefficient is less than 0.0001). Also, the direct effects model of five-fold dimension of place attachment on urban vitality, confirms the direct effect of place identity dimensions, emotional-cognitive connection, and place dependence on the vitality of urban neighborhoods; showing that place identity is the most effective dimension of place attachment concerning urban vitality.Conclusion
This research confirmed the positive effect of place attachment of residents on vitality of Ahvaz city neighborhoods and showed that place identity is the most important effective component of place attachment on vitality of Ahvaz city neighborhoods. So, in general, since forming of vitality in urban neighborhoods is connected with place and affected by place-base communities, yet vitality is one of components of urban spaces qualities, so this concept is related with qualities of people-place links such as place attachment.Keywords: place attachment, urban vitality, place identity, Ahvaz