فصلنامه برنامه ریزی منطقه ای
پیاپی 37 (بهار 1399)

It is important for regional planners and policymakers to be aware of the unemployment rate of the provinces in specified time horizons. In this paper, clustering of time series based on their forecasting density to a specified horizon is investigated. In this algorithm, we use the bootstrap process to approximate the distribution of predictions. The differences between each pair of bootstrap densities generate a dissimilarity matrix that is used for clustering. For this purpose, seasonal unemployment data was used in the spring of 2005 to fall of 2017, and according to the forecasting density algorithm, we will cluster the unemployment rate of Iran's provinces for two horizons of 4 steps (one year) and 10 steps (two and a half years). The best situation will be in the 4 steps or 10 steps (two and a half years), the provinces of Semnan and Zanjan, and the worst situation in the provinces of Lorestan and Kermanshah. Also, in the two horizons studied, except for some provinces, the rest were fixed in their main clusters. The spatial distribution of unemployment in Iran, based on forecasting density clustering, shows that western and southwestern provinces will have the highest unemployment rates. Therefore, the need for regional planning and serious attention to the employment of these provinces is recommended. At the same time, the provinces that are in an unfavorable situation have high unemployment neighbors, and the provinces with low unemployment rate have predominantly neighborhoods with a low unemployment rate. In other words, there is a positive spatial correlation between the neighboring provinces and the unemployment rate.

The marriage geography, will pay the general behavior and patterns of marriage and the family system and changes of spatial - time. The purpose of the present research is to spatial analysis of distribution of marital status indicators in urban and rural areas of Iran. The present research is applied in terms purpose, and is descriptive-analytic in terms the method. In the library and documentary method has been used to collect information and the indexes of the paper is calculated based on raw data of general census of population and housing of the year 2016. In order to study the spatial characteristics of the marital status in urban and rural areas of Iran, has been used in indicators of the percentage of people with a spouse, the percentage of homeless people by death, the percentage of homeless people by divorce and the Percentage of people never married. For spatial analysis of marital status indices, has been used hot spots and spatial autocorrelation moran methods in the Arc Gis software environment. The results of the hot spots method show that the concentration of married people in the northern areas is far more than the southern areas of the country, but the concentration of the never married people has more values in the southern half of the country, especially in the south east, southwest and west, and has formed a stronger spatial cluster. Also, the concentration of homeless people by death in the northwest, northeast, center, and west areas and the concentration of homeless people by divorce in the north and northeast of the country was more than other areas of the country.

Quality of life is a multi-dimensional concept that shows the general social, economic, and environmental features of regions. In rural regions, this concept expresses the conditions that indicate the degrees of individual and social -utilization, access, well-being, and welfare. The present research studied factors preventing the achievement of a desirable quality of life in border villages in Sistan, Iran, using a combination of field and descriptive-analytic methods. In this research, first, according to the number of villages in the study area, 43 villages were selected as sample villages using the Cochran formula. Then, based on the number of households in the area and re-use of the Cochran formula, 362 households were selected as sample families to complete the questionnaire. Research questionnaires were designed at two levels of household and village. Their content validity has been confirmed by the opinion of professors and experts, and the reliability of the questionnaires has been confirmed by Cronbach's alpha coefficient of 0.86. Also, in analyzing the data, the limitations of achieving the optimal quality of life were investigated using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), spatial and statistical analyzes Expert Choice, SPSS and ArcGIS software. Based on the results of one-way ANOVA with repeated measures, there is a significant difference between the level of constraints in different dimensions of quality of life in the households, and the severity of the economic and environmental constraints of achieving the optimal quality of life, with a coefficient of 0.337 and 0.153, respectively, is more than the physical-skeletal and social constraints. In fact, the quality of life of the studied households depends on the border exchanges on the one hand and on the other on agriculture and its subdivisions, the former with the creation of the border wall and the closure of the border, and the other by a sharp decrease or stop continuously in the flow of water from Afghanistan, the drying up of the Hamoon wetland and the increase of the effects of sandy soils has reached a deadlock.

One of the important strategies for development is diversification into economic activities. Since the village is at the core of the formation of human societies, the issue of the stability of the rural economy is very important. Villages usually have a single-product economy, which causes the villages to retreat from development. So, we should look at ways in which rural economies could be transformed into a dynamic and powerful economy by diversifying the economic activities of rural households. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of diversification into economic activities on the welfare of rural households in the study area. To identify the variables of diversifying the economic activity (independent variable of the research) through theoretical foundations and research background as well as through the interview and guidance of the professors in this field. The statistical population of this study was 8956 rural households living in 11 villages in the district part of Kerman County. Out of these, 384 households were selected through Cochran sampling and 412 households were normalized to normalize the data. Data were collected through a researcher questionnaire. The validity of the questionnaire was confirmed by experts and its reliability was confirmed by Cronbach's alpha coefficient (.963). Data were analyzed by SPSS software using T-test single sample, regression and independent T-test. In the analysis, the villages of the study area were compared in terms of economic diversity and welfare. The results obtained from the hypothesis confirm the effect of the diversification into economic activities on the welfare of rural households. In fact, the results indicate that there is a significant difference between the households with and without the diversity of economic activities in terms of welfare. In other words, households with a variety of economic activities experience a higher level of welfare than non-diverse families.

Smuggling goods is one of the major components of economic corruption. Basically, smuggled goods are imported from the border areas and then distributed throughout the country, making borders very important in this regard. One of the hallmarks of a healthy economy is the lack of low-level trafficking. One of the most important economic impacts of border towns is the occurrence of smuggling phenomena in different cities. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to analyze the smuggling goods and its effective factors in the border town of Saravan. According to the purpose of the research, the hypothesis is as follows: Weak economic structures seem to be the most important cause of smuggling in villages of the border town of Saravan. The method of research was descriptive-analytical, the data were collected through documentary, and library, field and questionnaire sources, and data were analyzed using SPSS software (one sample t-test and multivariate regression). The results of the single-sample t-test show that the economic, social, security and environmental development structures are in very poor condition in the rural areas under study in the border town of Saravan.Also, the results of multivariate regression show that economic index with 0.413 beta has the most effect on smuggling in border villages of Saravan, the security variable with the beta of 0.380 and the social index with the beta of 0.344 are in the second and third place and the environmental variable with the beta of 0.263 has the least impact on the smuggling of goods in villages of the border County of Saravan.

Place identity indicates different senses, perceptions, and place attachment, as depending on the political system of residents, geographical places make different political activities. Political division of spaces is a process that divides political-spatial units structurally and functionally into homogeneous levels in order for optimally managing of national territories. Amongst the major indices of political division of space is considering place identity, which can negatively or positively affect arousing and quality of people’s feelings of space. The research was conducted using a descriptive analytical method for collecting the related data to answer the question: what is the role of place identity and feeling of space in political activities of apace division (regarding Kazerun as a case)? Finding indicated that amongst the causes of uncomfortability in Kazerun is the negligence of political decision makers over identity and spatial components of geographical spaces of this region. This showed the interactional effects of political decisions and changes in geographical spaces.

Nowadays, various factors and elements affect social damage and crime in the cities, informal settlement and informal settlement are one of the important challenges of cultural and economic poverty and the age of globalization, which is important in the heightening of social harm, so that it can be said that the marginalization and crime of the cause and Disabled are different. The purpose of this study was to investigate and analyze the factors affecting the occurrence of crimes in peripheral areas of Kashan. The research method is descriptive-analytic and has a practical nature. The sample size was estimated using Sample Power 160 questionnaire. For analyzing the descriptive and inferential statistics, t-test was used in SPSS software. Structural equation modeling in AMOS software was used to explain and model the effects. The results of single-sample t-test showed significant social, economic, cultural and physical effects of crime in marginalized neighborhoods. Analysis of the results of structural equation modeling shows that among the indexed indicators, the social index has the highest factor load with regression weight (0.87) (p value = 000 / p value =) in the occurrence of crimes.

The spatial distribution of facilities and services of a city is intimately connected with sustainable development based on social justice indices. because the equitable distribution of services and facilities can provide a basis for balanced development of regions of a city, to create social crises and complex spatial problems; Therefore, the city planning process should take strict attention to spatial and equitable distribution of facilities and services.The purpose of this research is to investigate and understand how and how to distribute services in the areas of Tabriz, determining the main criteria defining the level of development of social justice and presenting mobility programs to the process of social justice is one of the main goals of this research. is descriptive-analytical. Also, in order to identify the various dimensions of social justice in the urban areas of Tabriz, using the latest statistics and information for 2016, 32 different indicators have been studied in terms of 6 components of demographic, economy,physical, transportation, educational, health and medical, and among 10 regions, and the results It has been evaluated using the FA Analysis Model. In this paper, firstly, using FA analysis, the indexes were reduced and extracted the set of factors involved in the level of social justice, and then, using the standardized score rating method, Tabriz regions were ranked. show that the distribution of facilities and services in the areas of Tabriz is not balanced and coherent. As for regions 6, 3, 2, in terms of having all facilities and services, they are ranked 1 to 3 in comparison with other area.

Having expectation for improving socio-economic situations, rural migrants migrate from their main residence to other regions. The social mobility of migrants in purposive place is one of important debates in migration and social stratification. This research investigated the social mobility status of rural-migrants that entered to Yasouj and Madevan cities during 5 past years. Using survey method, self-administrated questionnaire was used for collecting data. The Krejcie and Morgan's sample table (1970), was used for sample size (364 cases) determination and clustering and snow-bulling methods were used for sample selection. Face validity and Cronbach Alpha (social capital= 0.90, social mobility= 0.88) were used for validity and reliability evaluation, respectively. Using SPSS software, multiple regression, Pearson Correlation, and ANOVA were used for data analysis. Findings showed that there is significant and direct relationship between social mobility and social capital of rural-urban migrant, and there is significant difference in social mobility according migrants' education. but there is significant and indirect relationship between social mobility and age of urban-rural migrants. Multiple regression showed that social capital, education level and age can explain 26.1% of the social mobility variance of rural-urban migrants. As a result, rural-urban migrants with more social capital and education level, especially youth migrants, have more upward vertical social mobility.

The environment refers to any environment in which humans are directly or indirectly dependent and a process that supports life. Healthy environment guarantees the health of all biologists and environmental protection is one of the most important concerns of contemporary humans. This cross-sectional and correlational study was conducted on all citizens over 18 years of age in Bushehr. The sample size was selected based on Morgan table. Finally, 397 correct questionnaires were used for final analysis. The sampling method was also randomly selected. SPSS 22 and Smart PLS 2 statistical software were used for data analysis. The results of the research findings for the moderating role hypothesis of path coefficient 0.163 and statistical t 2/938 (greater than 1.96) and the effect intensity of 0.05, for social interaction hypothesis path coefficient 0.408 and statistical t 34/000 (more For social trust hypothesis path coefficient 0.405 and statistical t 3232/717 (greater than 1.96) and for social participation hypothesis path coefficient 0.288 and statistical t 20/86/16 (greater than 1.96) So, there is a significant relationship between the hypothesis of moderation, social interaction, social trust and social participation, and the environmental behaviors of the citizens of Bushehr and this type of relationship is direct and positive

Less sustainable development refers to sustainable housing, but planners and policymakers in the housing sector need to consider and target sustainable housing in urban development. In this research, efforts have been made to identify the most important indicators of sustainable housing. The novel and its requirements in the framework of realization of the goals of sustainable urban development in the Atabak district of Tehran are to be tested. The general purpose of this research was to design a sustainable housing realization model in the Atabak neighborhood, from the viewpoint of urban managers and land and housing experts. A survey was carried out using a questionnaire. The statistical population of this research is the managers of the National Land and Housing Organization and the institutions of the District 15 and Atabak District (1279: N). For data collection, stratified sampling method with proportional assignment was used. Using the Cochran formula, the sample size of the research (223: n) was determined. The research tool was approved by a number of experts in the field of urban planning of the faculty. The reliability of the questionnaire was obtained by using Cronbach's alpha = α = 82, for analysis of data, software Spss19, Amos22, Lisrel8.8 was used. The results of the structural equation analysis tests fit the research model to the optimal level and have a positive and significant impact on physical requirements, economic requirements, environmental requirements, technical and managerial requirements, and the realization of sustainable housing in the Atabak neighborhood. The results obtained from the coefficients The paths showed that physical requirements are the most effective hidden variable for sustainable urban development with a path coefficient of 0.803, and after that, managerial and engineering requirements with a path coefficient of 0.70 have the greatest effect on the dependent variable. Also, environmental requirements with a coefficient of 0.62 have affected sustainable urban development. Finally, economic requirements with a coefficient of 0.630 pathway have shown a great deal of influence on the dependent variable. Based on this, the researcher outlines solutions and suggestions for sustainable housing development within the scope of the study And the city of Tehran, in particular, the specific conditions of urban wastewater.

Underground dams are considered as a modern solution for the conservation of underground water resources. The location of underground dams is based on the morphological and hydrological conditions that is necessary for construction. In this study, Bayez plain which is located in Fars province, is investigated. First of all, 6 information layers as land use, lithology, slope, topography, streams density and lineaments density were chosen. Each layer is also classified in substrates and each one has assigned the appropriate weight by using AHP and considering their qualitative effects. The final integration map was obtained by combining the layers of information in Arc map. This map shows the proper and inappropriate areas in Bayez Plain for constructing underground dams. The results showed that the weights of canal density, lithology, slope, land use, topography and line density were 44.8, 23.4, 15, 8.8, 5 and 3 respectively. At last, three locations were proposed for the construction of underground dams by monitoring the final map, by considering the factors of the upstream conditions and the location of the dam axis. Among these locations, the upstream area of Mansh, known as Tang Bang, had better conditions for the construction of an underground dam. Underground dams in these areas, in addition of creating new sustainable water resources, also prevents flood and helped to feed the aquifers.

This research uses a descriptive-analytical approach by field and library methods. 22 sport places were selected in the Shiraz city area and the research process started according to preliminary studies from September 2019. Information was collected using two methods, including location-based GIS by GPS and non-location-based methods by referring to the National Statistics Center and then analyzed in ArcGIS. Attribution of Weighting Factors was done with the AHP model in EXPERT CHOSE. Our results according to location-based analysis showed that among the most of the existing sport places in the area are approximately in 5% relatively inappropriate, 5% moderate condition, 45% relatively appropriate condition, and 45% appropriate condition with regard to adaptation and safety criteria; and with regard to accessibility criteria are approximately in 5% moderate condition, 9% relatively appropriate condition, 86% appropriate condition; and with regard to population density criteria are approximately in 72% inappropriate condition , 23% relatively inappropriate condition, 5% moderate condition; and also according to fuzzy overlap map of appropriate locations accomplished utilizing Geographic Information System GIS by Gamma method 0.9 for construction applications, about 23% of lands are inappropriate and 38% of lands are moderate and 39% of lands are appropriate. However, a more appropriate locating place requires a proper organizational and management structure, a hierarchy planning and designing activities in line with sustainable standards, such a way that all citizens can use sports facilities and services with spending the least cost and time.