مجله مدیریت مخاطرات محیطی
سال دوم شماره 2 (تابستان 1394)

Hazards in different areas have different effects and consequences. Nowadays considering industries vital conditions, it seems necessary to boost organizations confronting uncertainties and risks. One solution for reducing these risks, is increasing agility, stability and flexibility in production process. This study tries to increase organization capabilities in supply chain hazards handing, using integration of production and transportation planning, shared transportation navigation and Multi-site manufacturing to minimize total tardiness in supplying required raw material and parts for a manufacturer. Considering that it is a NP-hard problem it is not possible to solve it in a reasonable time using exact methods. Hence, a genetic algorithm named dynamic genetic algorithm (DGA) is proposed to solve it. After that, results in single-site and multi-site problems are compared. The results show that multi-site manufacturing caused less tardiness than single-site manufacturing in reality. Also, increasing the number of suppliers, the number of vehicles and reducing the number of orders, the value of process times and transportation times causes tardiness reduction in a supply chain.

The Ahar-Varzaghan double earthquakes happened in August 11, 2012 in north-west of Iran. There were two main tremors, the first with 6.2 happened only eleven minutes before the second one with 6.3 in the Richter scale. More than 300 people lost their lives and 3000 got injured. Although there is no way to prevent the negative consequences of an earthquake at the moment, however, reducing the impact of the damages is possible through disaster management. In reverse, it has been proved that in the absence of disaster management, which basically also depends on accurate dissemination of information, the damage can increase and result in secondary environmental effects such as social disorders, objections and chaos. In this regard, dissemination of information during disasters and broadcasting accurate, thorough and transparent news about an earthquake and its impact in the first hours after an event has a crucial role in the process of disaster management and preventing its disastrous consequences.
In this paper, the information has been gathered through library search as well as interviews with responsible officials after the twin Ahar-Varzaghan earthquakes. The way mass media reported the information, especially, Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB), as the national and official media, is evaluated. In this regard, two main factors have been considered, that is “information about the earthquake and its characteristics” and “dissemination of information about the effects of an earthquake”.
The results show that quick and on time information dissemination regarding the effects of Ahar-Varzaghan earthquakes have been weak and reveals that a quick system for estimating the casualties and damages need to be reinforced. It also shows that media specially broadcasting media has not paid much attention to the accuracy of the disseminated news. The broadcasting of news is immediate, but its accuracy is under question. Also, with regard to the experience of twin Ahar-Varzaghan earthquakes and comparing the process of information dissemination between national and local networks, the latter showed a quicker and more effective performance than the national networks.

The increase of food production in various fields is one of the causes which has affected the growth of human population over time. The importance of food in human lives especially in economy and their health is undeniable. Due to the increasing demand for food around the world, some individuals- inadvertently or deliberately- cause the illness and death among fellow humans, by producing, distributing, importing and exporting of spoiled and contaminated food. The importance of this matter will be more vital when we remind that if lack of food safety- as one of the potential hazards- occurs and becomes a real risk, would cause to immediate response of the body and poisoning, however in most of the cases the symptoms would express themselves over time and mostly in later adulthood and it would lead to chronic diseases. Other consequences of occurring this kind of hazards are financial losses, reduced food trade, decline in tourism, increase in medical and economic costs and etc. In the present study, library research methods have been used and in some cases the suggestions of the experts has been considered. Identifying the causes of involvement in spoiled and contaminated food, from a criminological perspective, can help preventing such crimes and therefore can decrease the threshold of such hazards. The risk factors of involvement in spoiled and contaminated food include lack of adequate monitoring, regulatory deficiencies, violating laws and regulations by some of the health inspectors, economic fluctuation, the prevailing organizational culture of food industry.

Human beings through history have made a big deal of attempts to get to know their hazardous surroundings. People and societies have always construed all events and phenomenon as having meaningful relations, which has been mostly interpreted according to feelings and mental images. In the recent paper the relation and coordination between mystical knowledge and hazardous phenomenon has been considered. The main question here is why divers cultures have adopted diverse approaches and interpretations towards human and natural hazards. Mystical approach is distinct from scientific or intellectual one in that it is based on the past history and stories, or notion based on them. However, such an approach is not past itself and the modern world has its own myths which like those of the past are shaped according to our humane wishes, desires and anxieties.

Remote sensing techniques made it possible to study thermal anomalies prior to major earthquakes regardless of complications in comprehending earthquake mechanisms. Thermal pre-cursors are one the main resources for earthquake prediction. In this article, land surface temperature, atmospheric temperature, surface latent heat flux and outgoing long-wave radiation have been studied to detect anomalies prior to Varzaghan (August 11, 2012), Boushehr (April 9, 2013) and Saravan (April 16, 2013) earthquakes.
To detect earthquake related anomalies, time series of each pre-cursor has been produced within the period of earthquake, land surface temperature and atmospheric temperature were acquired from MODIS products, surface latent heat flux from GLDAS library and outgoing long-wave radiation from AIRS products. These time series were predicted by an artificial neural network with ant colony optimization training method. The results of this study were compared with artificial neural network with Levenberg-Marquardt training algorithm. It has been shown that 10 to 13 days before Varzaghan earthquake, anomalies has appeared in all of the mentioned precursors, in case of Boushehr earthquake 6 to 9 days before the event, anomalies appeared in atmospheric temperature and outgoing long-wave radiation and also a strong anomaly appeared in surface latent heat flux 2 days prior to earthquake and in Saravan earthquakes anomalies have been detected 5 to 8 days before the earthquake in all of the studied thermal pre-cursors.

Landslide is one of the natural hazards in mountainous regions that results in huge losses every year. Alashtar Doab watershed with mountainous terrains, uplands and different natural conditions has the potential for landslide. The purpose of this study is to compare the ANN[1] model with AHP to evaluate landslide in Alashtar Doab watershed.
In order to preparing the map, first of all parameters of the landslide were extracted and then the layers were prepared and after that a landslide distribution map that was occurred in the basin was prepared and then by combining landslide influencing factors with landslide distribution map, the impact of each of these factors such as slope, aspect, elevation, lithology, rainfall, land use, distance from fault and stream in ArcGIS software were measured. In this study, in order to landslide hazard zoning in Alashtar Doab watershed, the ANN and AHP[2] were used. Back propagation algorithm and sigmoid activation function were used in ANN. The final structure of the network consisted of eight neurons in the input layer, eleven neurons in the hidden layer and one neuron in the output layer. After optimization of the network structure, all area information was imported to the network and finally, landslide hazard zoning map was prepared according to output weight. In AHP method, after paired comparisons and extracting of the weight of parameters, the potential landslide area was obtained by combining them.
The kappa statistic factor was used for assessment and classification output results of model that were used to estimate of landslide hazard. The result shows that the ANN model with 0.9 kappa coefficient is more efficient

This research quantitatively evaluates the role of active tectonic in the development of landforms and zoning of tectonic vulnerability in Kamyaran County, south of Kurdistan Province. Study area, includes two basins called Sirwan and Razavar. The extracted data from topographic and geologic maps, satellite imagery and field work, were analyzed by means of Arc GIS and Excel software. For quantitative assessment of the role of active tectonic in the evolution of landforms, the morphsotectonic indexes ( river longitudinal gradient, mountain- front sinuosity, the ratio of valley floor width to valley height, and asymmetric index of watershed) were used and the results were presented as the relative index of tectonic activity (Iat). For providing tectonic vulnerability zoning, the maps of natural variables (slope, water table, lithological resistant, distance from faults) were overlaid and data was analyzed using AHP model in Arc GIS software. The results indicate that due to geographical position of the county in both Sanandaj-Sirjan and High Zagros zones, variety of lithology and existence of faults, geographically and geologically is of great importance. The results of morphometric parameters in both basins indicate that the area tectonically is active. Based on the Iat index, both northern and southern basins are in the class of intense tectonic activity. According to the vulnerability map of AHP model, highest relative risk areas are located in the north, south west and some parts of north east of the area. The central parts of the northern and southern basins have a moderate vulnerability. Most of the study area is rated as the more vulnerable and the lowest relative.