مجله مدیریت مخاطرات محیطی
سال سوم شماره 1 (بهار 1395)

A Forest fire is one of the hazardous that associated with atmospheric conditions. By studying atmospheric conditions during the fire event can realized this connection. The aim of this study is to analyze synoptic-dynamic natural hazards West Gilan forest fire on July 21, 2016 with a view to the Environmental circulation. For this purpose, the data of the upper atmosphere, sea level pressure, geopotential, vertical velocity atmosphere, wind zonal and meridional atmospheric levels of 2 meters above the ground, atmospheric levels of temperature and Maximum 2 meters surface of Earth and high radiation flux of Above the atmosphere and land surface with using GRADS software drew maps and analyzed. Atmospheric maps analysis results indicate that the establishment of a secondary low pressure center on the western side of the Persian Gulf and its expansion to the northwest of the country And in the middle of subtropical high altitude to 500 hp power package with the geo potential 5960 m Under his thick hot air subsidence for adiabatic heat combined with low pressure at ground level is of the Persian Gulf. Atmosphere's vertical velocity and vorticity maps based on high-altitude subtropical climate of the western half of the country on negative values indicates that confirmed the stability of Atmosphere and fall to the ground is warm from the upper levels. Advection maps analysis at the level of 1000 to 500 hPa temperature showed that the source of heat entering the western half of the country Advection of warm, dry air from the land of Saudi Arabia, North Africa, Iraq and the northern half of the Persian Gulf's warm waters That makes it the hottest day of the summer event and massive fires in large areas of forests have been Gilan West.

Thunderstorm and flood in July 2015 in Tehran, at the same time covered 10 provinces. So not a local phenomenon occurred on a large scale and synoptic rooted in the general circulation atmosphere and large-scale phenomena such as changes in the polar vortex. In the warm season convection and provides synchronization of the dynamic conditions the atmosphere can provide the potential for thunderstorms. In this study, using maps prediction, station information upper atmosphere, conditions Synoptic and indicators of thermodynamics, such as PW, CAPE, SWEAT, LI, TT, K happening thunderstorms dated 19 July 2015 in Tehran were analyzed to evaluate Predictability. The results showed that the synoptic conditions and thermodynamic parameters of the upper atmosphere at Tehran's Mehrabad Airport stations have shown to predict potential flood risk at moderate to high risk. Therefore, access and timely monitoring and information upper air and maps prediction and also early warning system to inform, thunderstorms, especially storms are associated with rainfall, predictable and reduce the damage caused by them is possible.

Enhancing product and service quality and reducing vulnerability and costs have a direct relationship. Therefore, considering that recently organizations managing focused on Total Management(TM), the survival of Total Quality Management(TQM) can’t be ignore in organizations.

The purpose of this study is identification and review obstacles of the successful implementation of TQM in the banking industry in order to reduce vulnerability and risks. For this purpose, Tejarat Bank as one of the largest private banks in Iran with more than 2,400 active branches is selected as an example for this study. There were 47 society branches and Morgan Sample Size(MSS) cases is intended 42 samples that are covered 62 persons of managers and supervisors. Research tools are general questionnaire (personal information) and dedicated questionnaire(With five main components of the cultural and employees, infrastructure, managers, competitiveness and organizational characteristics). Statistical software SPSS.16 and Excel is used to data analysis.

Factors affecting on unsuccessful implementation of TQM and the impact of these components and factors is asset, ranked, and result is discussed. Respectively organizational, infrastructure, cultural and employees and managers aspects had the greatest impact on unsuccessful implementation of TQM.

Due to the direct impact of successful implementation of TQM on the quality and a direct impact of vulnerability reduction on increasing quality, quality not only should be as a target but also as a hazard-less progress and by controlling the obstacles of successful implementation of TQM, vulnerability for this industry can reduced, cost control, growth and continuous improvement.

Ethical risk in economics and banking refers to any economic operation in which ethical criteria have been ignored. In order to render our research manageable, we only deal with two ethical concerns that are found to be most basic and prevalent, namely “moral hazard” and “adverse selection”, as they relate to operations of the usury-free banking system in Iran.
The best way to measure ethical risk is to review outcomes of existing procedures. For example we know that ethical risks in banking are reflected in overdue claims of banks. In the present study we thus evaluate the extent of non-performing loans as a measure of ethical risk.
In banking operations, we normally associate adverse selection with misallocation of bank resources, and moral hazard is defined as the borrower not abiding by his contract with the bank regarding how he uses the loan. The latter typically leads to non-performing loans.
Our study discovers the highest degree of ethical risks amongst private banks and the lowest level of ethical risks amongst specialized public sector banks. Among the different facilities provided, interest free loans are found to have the least ethical risk.

In scientific publishing, the researchers make a new way of research for others and find more ways to improve their researches. The necessity of entrusting the essay to a journal by a researcher makes the journal to join to a publisher to promote and present itself in scientific world. This review essay is tried to describe three university publishers: The University of Chicago Press, Oxford University Press, and The University of Tehran Press. The aim of this research is to identify the role of publisher in scientific journals publishing. University of Tehran Press can reach to international grades, if it changes its approach from official business to publisher business.

Ghare Sou basin is one of the sub-basins of Karkeh River located in Kermanshah, West of Iran. In spite of not being a flood-prone area in terms of physiography, severe floods have occurred in this region. The main aim of the present study is to present an overview of thermodynamicand synopticconditions affecting precipitations causing extreme flows. Accordingly, two databases were made use of: a) data including discharge and daily precipitation measured at the basin area covering the period of 1389-1351 and b) data including air temperature, air pressure, geopotential height, zonal and meridional wind speed, specific and relative humidity related to the levels of 1000, 850, 700, 500, 600, 400, 300, 250, 150, and 100 hPa provided on the NCEP / NCAR for each six-hour monitoring. Then, with application of the probability distribution method, the ultimate limit of type I with a ten thousand-year return period of 02/247 cubic meters per second per day discharge threshold was specified as diagnostic criteria for exceptional flows. Finally, five floods were extracted for explanation, among which one sample was analyzed. The obtained results revealed that during rainy days, blocking systems such as Rex, Omega, cut-off low, and high-pressure stack systems in the middle levels of the atmosphere were dominant over Mediterranean and Middle East region; the mentioned patterns revealed disruption of normal atmosphere. Moreover, analyses of the indexes and thermodynamic charts were indicative of non-modular arithmetic of maximum indexes and maximum conditional instability with maximum precipitation. Hence, acquaintance with synoptic conditions of systems leading to floods can be of great significance in presenting flood warnings before occurrence of any crises.