مجله مدیریت مخاطرات محیطی
سال سوم شماره 4 (زمستان 1395)

Construction industry is a key element of sustainable development and the productive economy of any country is directly or indirectly in the form of individuals, organizations and institutions involved with the many. Facilities and social infrastructure, are basic criterion in shaping sustainable communities. Construction Industry comprises essential of the economic system have a significant impact on the environment. Construction processes, operation and demolition of buildings is one of the most important factors in the effects of humans on the environment, either directly (via consumption of materials and energy, emissions and losses caused by it) and indirectly (through pressure on infrastructure, inefficient and employment) is. Risks such as increased consumption and waste of natural resources through projects delayed, lawsuits, reduced motivation and efficiency of the human factors involved in the project, reducing the investors to invest and the risks resulting economic and economic-social results from it, are all of the factors that have forced researchers to design more effective patterns for project monitoring. During the process of project control, even using the best and most popular software available in this field, project progress are measured through the simple and trivial ideas which are based on judgments of individual users; judgments that may be infected with the subjective and mental conditions of user and incorrect judgment. Assessment process in proposed methodology of the study is established on the basis of the theorem in physics as "the principle of heat transfer". In my opinion, any time progress of the project is similar to uniform transfer of thermal energy in a conductive solid and financial progress is like non-uniform transfer of thermal energy in a semiconductor. Assuming, benchmarks the criteria for measuring progress, was designed based on this principle. Introduction It is clear that in project procedure, after decision-making and design, efficient design can provide satisfactory results regarding purposes and hypotheses of the study. However, can modern techniques, methods, accurate design, and prediction of various factors lead to the ultimate goal? Of course the answer is negative, because the mental and physical efforts can lead to efficient results when it is possible to show everything in practice. The accuracy and efficiency of planning should be indicated in practice; otherwise, all of them will lead to failure. Therefore, in addition to accurate planning and design, we should attempt to find a way to measure the results and find a solution to deal with problems and deviations. No system can work and achieve its highest capacity without control. All of us are familiar with chaos and delay resulted from lack of control in traffic system. Uncontrolled water or electricity network systems can cause problems or decrease efficiency. If a building system is efficiently designed but progresses without any control, it may lead to delays or replacement. This study aims to utilize theoretical models and methods in practice to achieve new methodology in project progress measurement. Then, important points in this regard are taken into considerations and finally, theoretical foundations of methodology design are presented. Materials and Method In this study, using project control principles, it will be attempted to create suitable flowchart and algorithm (based on Fourier Heat Transfer theorem) to determine priorities for measurement, conditions, and criteria for deviations, measuring deviations, filtering minor deviations, and relationship between allocated resources and after case studies, the software package will be prepared. Conclusion The necessities to have effective control over project consist of accurate criteria for measurement and by popular software, it is easy to understand activity progress measurement is simple. Therefore, in most of software packages, the user is asked to insert a number between 0 and 100 and the software considers inaccurate number as the basis for future calculations. Since for each activity, time and cost resources are consumed, the progress level should be measured with respect to resources and time consumptions. Therefore, we need to design a fundamental method to calculate activity progress with high accuracy. In this study, first, foundations and the necessity to control project were proposed and new algorithms were presented to measure the progress of projects. In this algorithm, some stages are predicted that include determination of measurement relationships, limitations of deviations, discovering significant deviations, and identifying problems. In order to define the relationships based on simulation of project environment that is known as heat conduction theorem, some formulas are suggested to measure activity progress in terms of time and cost and it is expected to investigate all factors in activity procedure. In these formulas, activity time progress procedure is considered as heat conduction in steady state and capital injection and financial progress are similar to unsteady state heat conduction.

Flood is one of the phenomenons which bring about considerable damages each year and it has been attracted greatly by hydrologists. The factors such as physiography, geomorphology and human factors can accelerate this phenomenon in the basins. Estimating of flood in the basins without any climatological and hydrometric stations can be important. Germi basin is one of the basins with lack of any statistics in this field, so the regional analysis was used to achieve the flood hydrograph in this basin. In this research flood potential of Germi basin was studied by using of SCS method. Basin Hydrograph dimensions calculated by using of 24-hour rainfall, time of concentration, Curve Number, rainfall excess, time to peak and peak discharge. Then Hydrograph for basins was calculated in 2, 5,10,25,50,100 period times. Results showed ability of Germi basin for making flood due to physiography and morphology of the basin.

 Eighty percent of the fatalities caused by the earthquake were in six Countries-China, Iran, Peru, the former Soviet Union, Guatemala, and Turkey. Shiraz as one of the metropolitan cities of Iran, located in the seismic zone of Zagros mountain with high seismic and continual potential. Studies show that once every 20 years after 1925, earthquakes had occurred with magnitude 5.5 - 7.5 in the region.

 This research had done with the purpose to assess the students' knowledge for encountering the earthquake hazard. Case studies included the students of Shiraz schools and data collection tool was a self-administered questionnaire. According to Cochran formula, the sample size was 380 students. 400 questionnaires were distributed by Stratified Random Sampling method. The research method was descriptive and SPSS software was used to analyze the data. The research questions were answered by means of the t-test, one-way ANOVA, repeated measurements ANOVA.

 The findings had shown that 22.1% 0f the students had scored between 0.20 - 0.40, 53.3% had scored between 0.40 - 0.60 and 25.1% had scored between 0.60 - 0.80. This level of knowledge with regard to the serious risk of an earthquake was lower than standard. The students’ knowledge about emergency measures during an earthquake was higher than other measures. The mean score of knowledge was 0.50 (from 1.00 points).

 In the last decades, natural hazards have burdened many economic and physical losses to the countries. After hazard, the level of capital stock decreases strongly and household assets will be at risk seriously, and by decreasing the amount of income and saving, it will lead to lower the levels of welfare. After hazard happened, government’s expenditure will increase for helping victims and reconstruction. While by an accurate programming to reduce risks before the hazard, the loss will decline dramatically. Developed countries also apply the approach of prevention as a solution to lower the loss. The amount of capital in the building sector in comparison with the whole investment is high in Iran. Earthquake is the major reason for buildings to be destroyed, therefore finding an appropriate solution to save the national wealth seems necessary. After studying the history of earthquake insurance in the U.S.A. and Japan as the best samples of insurance industry, the insurance industry of Iran will be studied. Then, by presenting a conceptual method which can be considered as the innovation of the paper, the most effective solutions for facing with losses of hazards, and especially earthquake, will be introduced. In developed countries insurance is used as a most important and most effective way for natural hazards risk management to share risk to the policy holders. By using legal requirements, appropriate and justly pricing for premium and government supports of some groups of the society, the shortage of demand for the earthquake insurance must be solved and by increasing in the liquidity, the insurance industry will cause to development. And also, in the long run, earthquake insurance will lead to reinforced and standard building that will lower the losses down as much as possible.  

Natural hazards are shocks that impose high amounts of financial loss to the societies. How society face with these kinds of hazards, depends on the level of development (Emamgholipour, 1393). Because Iran is located on the Alp- Himalayan earthquake band, it experiences earthquakes, repeatedly. Severe earthquakes can lead to severe social problems that cost government highly. According to the statistics, in developed countries more than half of the loss has been paid by insurance companies, while in developing countries very low amount of the losses has been paid by the insurance companies. The high ratio of capital formation in building sector to the whole investment of Iran shows the necessity of looking for a way to save this national wealth from the earthquake (Amkachi, 1372). In this paper the role of insurance as a way to compensate and reduce the effects of natural hazard is studied, with the approach that by developing and improving insurance industry, in the case of similar hazards, the physical and financial loss will be minimized. Theory Earthquake is a kind of natural hazards that have both direct and indirect consequences on the area and its residents. Besides the immediate and short run, it has long run effects too. Hence, for reducing the short run and long run negative effects, it is also important to find a way to manage hazards correctly. This paper uses an applicable method to study and define a conceptual model of the most effective solutions for facing with earthquakes and show how it can solve the problem in short and long terms and manage the crisis. Discussion In table below the time line consequences of earthquake are presented.

Table1: the time line consequences of earthquake Direct losses Indirect losses Immediate consequences Short run consequences Long run consequences Physical injury of residents Trading becomes lower Unemployment Reducing the human capital because many people died Increasing in the government expenditures Change in the pattern of investment Pollution of the water resources as a result of destroying some structures (e.g. refineries, powerhouse, …) Increasing in the demand of loan for consuming reasons and not for investment immigration Damage to the structures and infrastructures Unwilling increasing in investment Changing in the value of lands and assets Many people being homeless Depression in industries and business Losing in the level of income, capital and private savings In figure 1 the conceptual model illustrates how natural hazard insurance affects the sectors and improve the country’s situation ability to face with hazards.

Figure 1: the conceptual model   

in the case of earthquake, household loses its assets, incomes and almost always becomes unemployed. While by powerful, developed insurance companies there will be no worries about the wealth and declining in the level of welfare. Government: in the current situation that the role of earthquake insurance is trimmed, government interferes after the earthquake to help victims, therefore, its expenditure will increased explosively. If insurance companies act strongly, the role of government will be as a reinsurer and support insurance companies. Government can also support low-income groups to pay their premium. Standardization construction of buildings: in the long run the earthquake insurance will lead to standard construction, because by considering higher premium for unsecure structures construction engineers will be forced to build standard and safe building. Crisis management: for managing crisis, it is essential to have accurate planning beforehand. Building safe structures is the indirect impact of insurance that can lead to good crisis management. Evolution in the building technology: many factors such as the location of structures, age of the building, quality of supervision and material’s quality can introduce how much vulnerable the structure is against earthquake. Therefore, insurance experts will force the engineers to build the structures safe and far from faults that end to the secured buildings.  

In order to studying the behavior of sectors for making appropriate suggestions, it is useful to separate demand and supply sides. In the demand side, household and business, should be encouraged to buy policies by giving them information about the risk of earthquake on their wealth and lives. The other solution is regulating rules for compulsory insurance similar to the third party insurance of cars. In the supply side, low liquidity and cash flow is the reason for undeveloped insurance industry. To make the industry more effective, problems such as statistics and pricing, adverse selection, risk distribution and estimating the exact loss which was caused by the quake should be solved. By compulsory insurance the cash flow will be pumped in to the insurance industry and the number of skilled experts working in the industry will increase to make evolution and the industry will be developed. As a result of a developed insurance industry, before earthquake happens, the structures will be built due to standard instructions and the amount of loss will decrease defiantly.

As annual frost and chilling cause damage to horticultural crops in West Azerbaijan Province, the first early fall, late spring frost date, severity and continuation of frost were investigated for a 10-year period (2003-2012). The main goal of this study was to know different types of frosts and chilling (radiative,  convective and combination), to give advices for reduction of damages on horticultural crops. The analysis was carried out only for Orumieh, Salmas and Miandoab regions due to availability of data and their importance for fruit production viz., apple, grape and walnut over the Province. In order to  analyse harmful frost and chilling, they were divided into the early fall and late spring frosts. In the next step, the first early fall and late spring frost date were found and according to Julian day, the best probability distribution function was fitted on data and probability of 25, 50, 75 and 95 percentages were worked out. The results showed that crop damages were mainly due to frost temperatures (minimum temperature below zero) rather than chilling temperatures (minimum temperature more than zero and below 4 degree Celsius) in the months of November, March and April. The results also indicated that the most damaged frost for three crops of the year was happened in 2011 with the loss of 2403.7, 501, and 1363.3 hectares in Orumiyeh, Salmas and Miandoab regions, respectively. According to crop growth stages, the threshold temperature to damage Grape was happened when minimum temperature falls below -6oC during the months of October and November (harvest time) and the most losses of apple and walnut occurred when minimum temperature falls below -5oC during the months of March and April (at bud stage). It is suggested that the frost study could be carried out with the help of  upper air data (specially 850 mb level) along with statistical analysis for a precise distinguish between frost types.

Zoning flood in the rivers and watercourses within different return periods and identifying and introducing areas at risk of flooding are non-structural, important measures in the flood management discussion. The aim of this study was to identify natural areas prone to flooding in the region and to review the hazards and consequences of its occurrence in order to identify floodgate lands at the river bed. In this study, the HEC-RAS model, HEC-GEORAS appendix, and ArcGIS software were used to simulate the river flow, and to calculate and determine water surface profiles and other hydraulic characteristics of flows. According to the results of the floodgate zone, it can be said that the area of land at risk of flooding has increased at the entire study area due to the increase of return period and has also dramatically changed at different study region due to the geomorphological conditions of the area. So that, if we consider the area of the floodgate zone with a 25-year return as our basis, 3607/43 hectares are at risk of flooding in all the regions, of which 2129/69 hectares are in the region 3.The region 3 can be introduced as the most critical region of floodgate, so that the largest area of arable lands, garden areas and residential areas of this region are at the risk of flooding in the river bed. The average maximum power of the river in the returns course 1.5-100 years old has the highest value in the region 2 (573/7 watt per square meter). So this region, the harmful effects and damages are taken into consideration rather than the power of the river, which can be considered as the most critical region of erosion.