مجله مدیریت مخاطرات محیطی
سال ششم شماره 4 (زمستان1398)

Climate systems are complex, yet organized, systems that, in some years, exhibit definitive behavior and in others, random behavior. In the meantime, the subtropical high-pressure system, by shifting its location, creates occasional and sometimes random environmental events (droughts or wetlands, etc.) in one area. These environmental events are at different levels of balance, threshold and risk. In this article, in response to this issue, namely, identifying the behavior of tropical high-pressure systems from equilibrium to hazard, it was attempted to identify and evaluate this process in the form of systematic thinking. Since in the behavior of climatic systems, quantitative and qualitative studies interaction is essential. For this purpose, the research method in this study consists of two main parts: In the statistical research method, the data of 500 hPa pressure during the period 1948-2018 and the monthly precipitation data of 84 meteorological stations were analyzed and analyzed. Also, in the qualitative research method, the types of equilibrium, thresholds, hazards and environmental disasters in the behavior of high-pressure systems as well as its management type were studied. The results showed that in the warmest months of the study, the most significant impact on Iran has revealed several levels of equilibrium, in particular static, instantaneous, dynamic and transient equilibrium, which in some years face a threshold effect, which threatens to initiate risks. Is the environment (severe and very severe droughts). Which will be subject to environmental disasters if disturbed and drought-prone behavior is managed. Therefore, it can be said that combining quantitative and qualitative perspectives (in the form of active management) can be effective as a practical approach in the field of environmental management and predicting the behavior of systems to reduce risks.

Landslides are natural disasters that cause a lot of financial and life losses in the country, annually. Identifying high risk areas can reduce the damages and be effective on land development policies. The aim of this study was to spatial prediction of landslide hazard in Sanandaj-Kamyaran main road in Kurdistan province. In current study, landslide hazard mapping were performed using advanced data mining algorithms including weights of evidence (WOE), and evidential belief function (EBF). Firstly, 79 landslides location were obtained from field surveys. Then, these landslides were randomly categorized into two groups of training (70%, 55 locations) and validation (30%, 24 locations). In the current study according to previous studies and geography conditions, fourteen conditioning factors including slope, aspect, curvature, elevation, distance to fault, lithology, SPI, TWI, soil type, density of river, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), distance to river, distance to road, the slope angle, and land use were determined to landslide hazard potential mapping. Also, in this research, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the area under the curve (AUC) were used for validation of the two achieved landslide susceptibility maps. The AUC results introduced the success rates of 0.89 and 0.79 for WOE and EBF, respectively. Therefore, WOE model, having the highest AUC, was the most accurate method for spatial prediction of landslide hazard in the study area. In addition, the results of the study showed that advanced data mining algorithms based on their structure have sufficient accuracy to spatial prediction of landslide in the study area.

The construction industry has an enormous impact on the environment, and the processes involved in construction projects are one of the most important factors affecting the environment. The present study examines key indicators in the effectiveness of project portfolio management as a strategy to reduce environmental hazards in construction industry projects. Project portfolio management (PPM) is used in many organizations as an approach to coordinate a portfolio of projects or programs to achieve specific organization goals. A common goal of PPM is to ensure that an organization is doing the right thing, rather than just doing things right. The effectiveness of project portfolio management in organizations has an important role that if it would neglect can lead to widespread environmental hazards. Several factors are effective in the effectiveness of project portfolio management. This research focuses on identifying the most important of these factors. The research approach is qualitative-quantitative (mixed) and uses a descriptive research approach. The statistical population used is construction companies that use the concept of project portfolio management in their organization and the data were collected through interviews and questionnaires. Experts identified the key indicators of project portfolio management success and effectiveness in seven groups and then, using a questionnaire and quantitative analysis, identified three groups of strategic, operational and organizational structure among the most important indicators. Based on the findings, organizations can improve their context in order to make more effective use of project portfolio management, with the aim of reducing biological hazards during the implementation of construction projects.

One of the most important issues and challenges facing mankind is the phenomenon of climate change and its effects on different systems. given the great importance of industries and industrial infrastructures in Iran and Khuzestan province and the potential impacts of major natural disasters, it is necessary to consider risk management against crises and appropriate management strategies to reduce the vulnerability of facilities. the purpose of this study was to investigate the vulnerability of infrastructure in southern regions of Khuzestan province to climate change. two elements of trend analysis tests, namely the Sensor Slope Estimator Trend Analysis and the Mann-Kendall Process Analysis Test of 32-year time series trend of these elements during the baseline statistical period (1985-2017), were investigated. during the climate change under the two scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8, the fifth climate change report, CMIP5, simulated the climate characteristics of the region. using the AHP algorithm, a pairwise comparative matrix of climatic hazards was developed. After determining the weight of each factor, in ArcGIS software these weights were applied to the layers of each climate factor and 4 climatic damage zones were identified. based on the final weight obtained from the pairwise comparison matrix, floods, dusts and then hot waves with the final weights of 0.17, 0.16 and 0.15 had the highest role in climate damage for various regional infrastructures, respectively have had. high hazard zone that is found in the northern and central parts of the study area. the class with low climatic damage corresponds to the westernmost part of the study area. the heat stress caused by the hot and humid waves in the area is less severe, but dust and heavy rainfall are causing significant flooding in the area.

Following the devastating and irreversible effects of oil and gas industry activities around the world, as well as the increasing use of fossil fuels that have brought widespread risks to the environment and human health, governments and the international community are seeking solutions for Cope with this environmental challenge. Although one of the solutions seems to be criminal suppressive measures, but considering the lack of impact of the penalties on the recovery of some previous injuries, the importance of preventive non-criminal measures that prior to the occurrence of such hazards is a strategic priority. Given that Iran is one of the major countries in the extraction and extraction of hydrocarbon resources, the feasibility of such non-criminal measures makes the preventive study of special importance. Failure to comply with the scientific rules for the extraction and extraction of these resources can contaminate the soil, aquatic and aerial environments and may pose immense challenges to the environment as well as the various organisms present in the environment. The occurrence of some destructive effects such as air pollution, respiratory problems, destruction and environmental pollution, etc. in some areas of Iran, especially the oil wells and gas resources in the south of the country, is an undeniable problem. The main reasons for such risks from oil and gas pollution can be attributed to the lack of scientific rules regarding the production and refining and utilization of oil and gas hydrocarbon resources as well as the mismanagement and lack of reducing and controlling strategies of these activities. Non-criminal confrontation has the capability of design. The key question of this paper is therefore, what are the non-criminal strategies for preventing and confronting environmental hazards in the oil and gas industry and what is the impact of these strategies on preventing environmental degradation? Obliging to maintain standards for oil and gas extraction compliance with standards, as well as frequent monitoring of the health of activities and permissions in issuing instructions, can have a significant impact on risk reduction. In addition, since non-criminal measures are the basis for effective pre-emptive control and oversight, it can be possible to enhance the effectiveness of non-criminal strategies by enhancing the participatory activity of NGOs. On this basis, risk knowledge, while combining the study of the adverse effects of the past as well as paying attention to the future full of risks arising from the activities of the oil and gas industry, gives non-criminal measures a more practical application.

Precipitation, as one of the most important elements of the hydrological cycle, is affected by climate change and this can lead to new conditions in water resources.In the present study, to monitor and simulation of Precipitation conditions in the southern coast of the Caspian Sea (Gilan and Mazandaran provinces), daily precipitation data of Astara, Rasht, Bandar Anzali, Ramsar, Gharakhil, Noshahr and Babolsar synoptic stations for base period 1986- 2015 from the Meteorological Organization and daily data for CanECM2 model with three scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 from the Canadian Climatological Site was obtained. SDSM version 3.5 was used to simulate precipitation changes over the future period (2021-2050). After doing model calibration and validation, the downscaling of precipitation data was performed for the future period (2021-2050). Then, intensity, duration and frequency extreme indices of precipitation for the base and future periods were calculated. The results of three scenarios showed that the average annual precipitation in the study area increased, on average, by 20 to 70 mm as compared to base period (1986-2015). In addition, the results of analysis of precipitation indices showed an increase of precipitation with more than one mm in all weather stations and an increase of precipitation with more than 10 mm in most of the weather stations, excluding Babolsar and Gharakhil, in the future period 2021-2050 in comparison with the base period. However, the precipitation more than 20 mm was similar in the future and base period with a little change. The results revealed that a decrease in R95p and R99p indices at Ramsar and Nowshahr stations and an increase in the western and eastern parts will occurred in the future. Moreover, a decrease in the dry period length will happened in the future as compared to the base period. The extreme precipitation values are expected to be high for the region, which will increase the average annual precipitation.