فصلنامه مدلسازی اقتصادی
سال سیزدهم شماره 4 (پیاپی 48، زمستان 1398)

The purpose of this study is to analyze the nonlinear behavior of monetary policy at the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran in uncertainty condition. To achieve this goal, the nonlinear behavior of the central bank's reaction function to the inflation uncertainty in the form of smooth Transition Regression model (STR) is estimated using seasonal data during the 1997:1-2015:3 periods. The results of this study indicate that the variable behavior and regime change in monetary policy of the central bank of Iran in the various conditions of inflation. By passing the uncertainty of inflation from a threshold level, the behavior of monetary policy has been changed so that the coefficients of the model are consistent with the Taylor rule. Based on the results of the present study, it is suggested to consider the economic uncertainty index in order to determine the optimal monetary policy.

In this paper, within the framework of the theory of "new economic geography”(NEG), we evaluated  the effect of  sectoral tariffs on the geographic distribution of agricultural downstream industries in the provinces of Iran.Midelfart-Knarviket et al.(2000) approach was usedto test the research hypothesis.In this approach, the perspective of industrial activity location is determined by the multifactor interactions between regional and industrial characteristics.Accordingly, the econometric model by fixed effects method has been estimated using the industrial and regional data of 33 agricultural downstream  industries 4-digit code of ISIC classification during the period of 2004-2014 in 28 provinces of Iran.The results show that sectoral tariffs have a significant effect on the industrial location pattern in agricultral downstream industries of Iran; This means that the implementation of supportive policies has led to an increase in the agglomeration in some provinces and the formation of a core-periphery pattern in Iran.

The main goal of the present study is to evaluate the total energy productivity and the effective factors on 134 manufacturing industries in Iran with a four digit code and also ISIC international classification among 1385 to 1394. To do this, with data envelopment analysis and Malmquist method the technical, technological efficiency and the total energy productivity are calculated on the manufacturing industries in Iran. And then by fixed effects method and generalized method of moments  (GMM),the effect factors on the total Energy Productivity was calculated. The results of the model showed that the total Manufacturing Industries experiences a technological positive growth, but some have been technically efficient. In all, the findings showed the growth of the total energy productivity in the manufacturing industries. The findings based on the model showed that variables such as skills, information communication technologies (ICT), research and development, physical capital and machinery and equipment , export and time are meaningful effect and just variable education is meaningless effect on the total energy productivity. Based on the results, reviewing the work style, improving managerial skills ,Government subsidized support of production and investment, imports tariff reduction of capital equipment and machinery of the industries with less energy consumption is recommended.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the position of rapeseed and soybean oils in optimal cultivation pattern of Mazandaran province in two social and market conditions. For this purpose, the calibrated linear programming model has been used to reduce environmental pollution based on data from the year 1396-97. The results of the market model showed that the use of water, machinery and capital for production of crops in the province, in particular, oilseeds were more than needed and the same amounts of production could be obtained by using smaller amounts of these inputs. Gained. Also, given the limitations and available resources, soybean cultivation should be reduced by 45% and canola cultivation by 18% to achieve the optimal model. The results of the social model showed that the production of oilseeds in the province would only be possible with government support for the agricultural sector. The results suggest that instead of focusing on subsidies for fertilizers and chemical pesticides, other areas such as technical knowledge promotion, insurance, warehousing, transportation, commodity exchange, standardization, export, package Classify and grade these supports.

The main purpose is to explain the impact of financing through public-private partnerships with government funding on development. For this purpose, the system of simultaneous equations was used based on Iranian Registry data from 1976 to 1978. Estimated coefficients for the effect of financing through public-private partnerships and government funding on development were tested. The results showed that public-private partnership financing was about four times more likely to affect development than government funding. This difference is not rejected at the 98% level. It is proposed to increase the share of financing through public-private partnerships rather than through government funding to further the development goals.This move, in addition to freeing up government funding for other development goals, allows for increased private sector participation.

The weak economic performance of resource-rich countries results in the economic studies’ great concentration on the role of institutions in resource curse literature and employment of theoretical or empirical approaches to determine the cause of this phenomenon . In this paper, we argue that the two independent variables of political institutions and natural resources influence the economic institutions which are endogenous variables; by applying a descriptive-analytical approach and making distinction between function of “economic institutions” and “political institutions” . Political institutions form the political power structure to specify the elites’ scope of power in the establishment of favorable economic institutions, which aim at distributing the resources among the affiliated groups . We also use the empirical approach to show that natural resources do not have any significant effect on the quality of economic institutions by controlling the effect of political institutions . In contrast, the better quality of political institutions results in the better quality of economic institutions .