نشریه مدیریت آب
سال ششم شماره 4 (پیاپی 19، زمستان 1398)

To discover and pre-test of pattern of "micro conflict resolution over groundwater resources", at first, the Darian Plain area was divided into 10 management zones. The study population included 852 owners of agricultural water wells. In a randomized classified sample, 100 wells were selected in the mentioned areas and 20 micro groups of wells,that each containing 5 exploiters of the owner of the well neighboring to each other, were formed and tested. The pre-test was conducted with the help of exploratory interviews with 42 operators between of the same 100 operators and field surveys of the farm area and neighboring wells. The results of the pre-tests showed that the formation of the structure of the water management unit based on the formation of microgroups of wells, creates a legal and administrative platform to reduce incompatibility over groundwater resources through self-control in operation and protection of groundwater resources in Daryoun Plain.

Series modeling involves four general phases when relying on data analysis: diagnosis, analysis, composition, and validation. Unfortunate judgment in each of the four phases will lead to a less optimal model. In the analysis of a time series, there are five general components, that all of which may be present in a time series or vice versa. Three components can be described as systematic: long-term, periodic, and cyclical trends. Episodic events and random changes are components that reflect sources of non-systematic change. In each case, a practical example is provided. For example, the use of this modeling to predict the annual peak of discharges for the northwestern branch of the Anakostia river in Hitcheville, Maryland for water years 1939 to 1988, showed that the logistics model may be a reasonable model to show the middle section of the trend of long-term.