فصلنامه راهبرد اقتصادی
پیاپی 31 (زمستان 1398)

Exchange rate volatility and its resulting uncertainty affects many macro variables, activities, economic conditions as well as economic welfare. This paper attempts to investigate the effect of exchange rate volatility on economic welfare using a macro-econometric model. Since measuring GDP does not always mean a higher welfare for the society, first a more appropriate index for measuring welfare is introduced, then the effect of exchange rate volatility on economic welfare is calculated using the designed macro-econometric model. With the assumption of no exchange rate volatility, economic welfare again is measured and the results are compared. Our findings show that exchange rate volatility results in lower economic welfare, which means ignoring it in the model would mis-specify it and therefore dis-array its findinings. At the end, the effects of implementing two different monetary policy rules in order to improve the declined economic welfare, due to exchange rate volatility, is examined and compared. The findings show that implementing the stability of banking profit rates in the era of exchange rate volatility is a better monetary policy.

Due to the importance of varying degrees of disturtion of different tax bases, the need to identify and prioritize different tax bases in Influencing macroeconomic variables is essential.Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of (direct) and (indirect) tax shocks on macroeconomic variables (GDP and inflation rate) in the Iranian economy using quarterly data over the period 2004-2017. For this purpose, the Structural Vector Regression (SVAR) model based on Blanchard and Protti's (2002) has been used. In this study, it is necessary to use quarterly data due to tax collection lag with annual data which makes the calculated elasticities different. In order to determine the elasticities using Giverno's (1995) method, first the direct and indirect tax elasticities of production are calculated and then from the constraints obtained as an instrumental variable in the Direct and indirect tax elasticity estimation on production and inflation. After determining the constraints and residuals of the VAR reduced form, structural impulses of tax policies were identified and then impulse-response functions were extract. The results of the Impulse Response Functions show that direct and indirect tax shocks have different effects on the macroeconomic variables of GDP and inflation. Based on the results and the analysis of the the Impulse Response Function, it can be said that the positive Shock on direct taxes reduces the level of production and the level of inflation. On the other hand, the positive Shock on indirect taxes does not have a significant effect on the level of production and the level of inflation.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of the Iranian central bank intervention policy on the macroeconomic variables. Foreign exchange intervention is every buying and selling foreign assets against domestic assets in the exchange market. This intervention is not limited to a single monetary regime and can be implemented in all monetary regimes. But the form of intervention depends on the state of the monetary and exchange regime of a country. To investigate the effects of the intervention policy on the macroeconomic variables, the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model has been used, based on seasonal frequency data from 1989-2017. According to the results of the shocks from the exchange rate and foreign exchange reserves, the variables of economic growth, consumption, investment decreased in a short run but inflation rate variables, final production costs and nominal interest rates increased. In other words, the intervention of the central bank in the exchange market has higher costs of the macro economy.

Despite borrowing constraint and incomplete financial markets in Iran economy, grasping how economic agents behave in these situations is very crucial. This paper attempts to investigate saving behavior in Iran by solving Ayagari heterogeneous agent model numerically. The paper concludes that precautionary saving increases in uncertain environment and in extreme uncertain cases it reaches 30 percent of total saving of Iran economy. These huge resources that go to real asset markets like exchange or real estate as a speculative attack decreases household consumption from golden rule consumption level and cause fluctuations in market prices.

Today, in many parts of the world, local taxes are considered to be a just and stable tax base because of their efficiency and benefits. Local tax is a tax that is determined by local authorities at a rate or base, and its role is to provide credit for services whose collective benefits are exploited by local residents. This tax, like national taxes, covers income distribution issues. Similar to national taxes, it involves the problem of income distribution. Given the importance of this issue and in pursuit of rational economic policies to balance income distribution, the main purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of local income tax and local sales tax on income distribution with emphasis on macroeconomic variables.. In this study, econometric-based analysis using GMM method, 12 selected OECD countries include Austria, Denmark, Finland, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Turkey, the United Kingdom. Locally they have been studied from 2004 to 2014. The results show that with the increase in local income tax and GDP growth, the Gini coefficient decreases as a result of income inequality, but with the increase in local sales tax and inflation, the Gini coefficient increases and income inequality increases.

One of the most important institutional factors determining the effectiveness of monetary policy is trust in the monetary authority. Trust in the monetary authority from the perspective of economic policy in the short run will lower inflation expectations and in the long run will lead to long-term structural reforms that will increase economic growth and reduce inflation. In this regard, this study attempts to model the effect of trust in monetary authority on macroeconomic variables by modeling a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. The results of the model show that improvement in trust to monetary authority by affecting the expectations of economic agents and lowering the (price) expectations increases investment and employment and provides economic growth. Also, by Scenario in the model and considering different levels of trust, it was found that improving the level of trust enhances the impact of shocks on economic variables. In other words, increasing in trust to the monetary authority reduces the response of economic agents to the risk and thus makes money more attractive to the productive sector, thereby enhancing the effect of shocks such as monetary shocks on economic growth. Therefore, policymakers' efforts to rebuild and raise trust in monetary authority can help improve economic conditions.