فصلنامه برنامه ریزی فضایی (جغرافیا)
سال دهم شماره 2 (پیاپی 37، تابستان 1399)

One of the most important issues of sustainable urban development is the study and forecast of land use change patterns that are directly related to climate pollution, soil erosion and demographic and economic changes. The city of tomorrow is the result of today's decisions. Therefore, it cannot be prepared for future issues and future challenges, notably in the field of land use in metropolises, irrespective of future and futures studies. Therefore, this research with the approach of future study sought to investigate and identify the factors affecting land use change in Tabriz metropolitan area from 2018 (1397 AH) to 2028 (1407AH). The research method was an exploratory analytical type. The required information was collected from a survey of documents and a researcher-made questionnaire. To analyze the results, Cross Impact Analysis technique has been used in MicMac software. The results indicated that urban development, economic dependence, dominant economic role of the city, urban development plans, housing market development, manufacturing relations, capital accumulation, urban change, economic reconstruction, land prices, and migration respectively had the most effect on land use changes in Tabriz metropolitan area.

The continuation of natural hazards and the vulnerability of the city of Ghaenat has caused these hazards to become disastrous every year, given that management status has a significant role in controlling and transforming natural hazards into crises. In this regard, it is necessary to consider and analyze the situation of crisis management of the city on the one hand, and the factors affecting their performance status on the other hand.

To improve the situation of crisis management and reduce vulnerability by moving towards new management of natural disasters.
Research

The research was an applied one based on a descriptive-analytical method. The approach of this research was quantitative-qualitative, which, accordingly, after collecting the theoretical content by documentary method and developing indices and optimal crisis management variables, 100 structured questionnaires were distributed among academic experts, NGOs, rural dignitaries, informers and managers of government agencies related to control and crisis management who were selected based on purposive sampling. The current status of city crisis management, based on their knowledge, skills and performance status, was assessed through one-sample t-test. Subsequently, through purposeful semi-structured interviews with 26 members of these groups, the causes and factors affecting this situation were identified by open coding and then distributed among the members of the mentioned groups (100 persons) by the factor analysis method. These factors were confirmed by the method. The face and content validity of the distributed questionnaires were confirmed by the pre-test and experts’ approval. The construct validity was confirmed by factor analysis and reliability test by the Cronbach's alpha coefficient of 0.71.

The situation of crisis management in Ghaenat city with an average value of 2.67 was not satisfactory. The causes of this situation were four main factors of weakness in planning, implementation and supervision of city crisis management, social deficiencies, weakness in legislation and policy, and weakness in education and practical skills which were summarized based on 32 indicators. Correspondingly, crisis management of the environmental hazards in the region was based on a traditional approach (passive, reactive, specialist, non-participatory, emphasis on relief and recovery).
Innovation: A structural and comprehensive approach to identify factors influencing the regional crisis management situation and to demonstrate the role of inefficient management and social failures in increasing vulnerability to crises.

 In the present era, planners are required to adopt appropriate policies for the proper deployment of land uses in the form of principles of sustainable land management. In this regard, the necessity of locating site of major commercial centers is to a great extent considered as one of the influencing factors on cities economic success.

Shopping auto mall centers require proper site selection in order to prevent the dispersion of their service centers due to the widespread provision of services and the growing need of citizens for cars. Therefore, the present study aimed to locate the construction site of an auto mall shopping center in Gaz-e-Borkhar.

The research method is based on spatial data analysis based on comparative studies and field evaluations. The selected criteria included access to services and communication ways, hazards in terms of privacy and flooding, landscape and climate form whose digital layers were prepared based on spatial maps and data, and were analyzed in ArcGIS software environment. To determine the relative weight of the parameters, quantitative analysis was performed and prioritized by pairwise comparison. Finally, by combining the layers based on their weights through weighted means method, the zoning map of the area was prepared for optimal regions to create a shopping auto mall center.

The results of the research categorized the study area into five zones ranging from very appropriate to very inappropriate to construct a shopping auto mall center. Zones 1 to 3 due to low land use, and Zone 4 due to intersection with the agricultural lands were not ranked as optimal. But, the 5th zone (very suitable) because of the intersection with the residential areas and the existing aqueducts, was classified into 4 sites from south to southeast of Gaz-e- Borkhar. Respectively, Site 1 was very desirable (82.593 hectares), Site 2 strongly desirable (56.359 hectares), Site 3 desirable (21.158 hectares) and Site 4 with low desirability (11.346 hectares) were prioritized, respectively, as suitable places for constructing a shopping auto mall center. The first place (site 1) has the highest function and performance.

The present study has presented a spatial graphical representation of  Gaz-e-Borkhar city in the form of capable zones for constructing a shopping auto mall center that can be a comprehensive guide and scientific document for managers and planners to make the constructive decisions and to implement developmental policies.

The decline of the quality of urban life as a result of the formation of complex problems in different economic, social, environmental, physical, and institutional dimensions has made the importance of using a good urban governance model to promote livability essential.

The purpose of this study was to analyze the spatial effects of good urban governance on the livability of crime hot spots in the central part of Tehran.

This study was an applied and descriptive-analytic research in terms of purpose and method. In order to collect the required research data, two methods of documentary and survey analysis have been used. The research tool was a questionnaire. The statistical population of the study was the residents of 11th and 12th regions of central part of Tehran, in a crime center with a population of 529604 people, 400 of whom were selected as sample size. Based on the documented results, good urban governance and urban livability indices were analyzed by One Sample T-test, Pearson correlation coefficient, and multivariate regression.

The results showed that the status of good urban and livability indices in the crime hot spots of central part of Tehran was undesirable. There was also a weak to moderate relationship between good urban governance and urban livability. The results of multivariate regression also showed the moderate and significant effect of good urban governance indicators on the livability of crime hot spots in the central part of Tehran. Among the eight criteria of good urban governance, the indicators of justice, efficiency, and effectiveness, and legality with beta coefficients of 0.530, 0.496 and 0.427 had the highest impact on the livability of crime hot spots in the central part of Tehran.

The innovation of this research was in methodology. Using spatial data of crimes, crime hot spots were identified, and by using the spatial questionnaire, the effects of favorable urban governance on the livability of crime hot spots in central part of Tehran were analyzed.

Urban parks are an essential part of city's landscapes and their existence is necessary for citizen's health. Therefore, achieving spatial justice requires urban planners to allocate sufficient amounts of these spaces for cities and provide equal access of all residences to the parks.

The purpose of this study was to analyze the availability of urban parks, distribution of these spaces and their accessibility in the city of Ilam. Research

The research is applied in nature and has analytical-evaluation method. The research data were documentary and included GIS shape files of Ilam land use and statistical blocks of 2016 population censuses. Descriptive statistics and buffering techniques in GIS were used for data analysis.

Findings showed that Ilam is much lower than the set standards so that only 2% of its surface area is covered with parks and per capita urban park is only 2-5 m2. Also, the distribution of these spaces in the city is not balanced so that the concentration of these spaces in the northern half of the city is far greater than the south and the center of the city. While one-third of the city's area and one-third of the city's population, which are mainly in the southern parts of the city, are not in the coverage area of parks, they are overlapping in some northern parts to even nine coverage areas. The difference in ‘per capita access to parks’ across the city is about 10 times.

The index of ‘per capita access’ in analyzing accessibility is a new method that it has not been used in research in Iran so far.

 Land use is a dynamic phenomenon whose temporal and spatial changes are caused by human pressures and development. Knowledge of how to use user changes and their causes and factors over a period of time can be of great interest to planners and managers. The present study seeks to evaluate and extend eight sample villages in Mashhad during 2001-2019 and then predict changes to 2031 and 2046.

The research method is descriptive-analytical and it is applied in terms of the purpose. The required data were obtained through the documentary method; and Landsat 7 ETM + satellites (2001 and 2007) and Landsat 8 OLI satellites (2013 and 2019) were used to map land use and survey changes in the study area. After supervised classification of images with maximum similarity algorithm, Markov chain model was used to investigate land use changes in sample villages. Also, the CA Markov model and the Kappa index were used to predict the trend of changes up to 2031 and 2046 for confidence in classification.

The results showed that most of the user change occurred in the built ranges, and land use has increased sharply, and land and garden land use has fallen sharply, with 1008.67 hectares (241.57%) and 32.28 hectares of unused lands and 1060.55 hectares of fields and orchards, respectively. These changes were more frequent in the villages of Hossein Abad Gharqi, Georgian Sefli and Ghale Siah (Black Castle). According to Markov’s Model, the built area in 2031 and 2046 will change by 110.77% and 113.18%, respectively. Therefore, it is necessary to prevent unauthorized expansion of Mashhad and surrounding villages to gardens and agricultural lands with proper planning.

For the first time, the process of land use changes in rural settlements, especially peri-urban settlements, is studied and predicted by satellite imagery.