فهرست مطالب

جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی - پیاپی 71 (بهار 1399)
  • پیاپی 71 (بهار 1399)
  • تاریخ انتشار: 1399/02/01
  • تعداد عناوین: 18
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  • نیر آقابیگی، ابوذر اسماعیلی عوری*، رئوف مصطفی زاده، محمد گلشن صفحات 1-21

    برآورد رسوب دهی رودخانه ها به دلیل تاثیرگذاری عوامل مختلف دارای پیچیدگی بالایی می باشد. استفاده از منحنی های سنجه رسوب و رابطه توانی برازش داده شده بین داده های دبی و غلظت رسوب معلق یکی از متداولترین روش های تعیین میزان غلظت رسوب معلق است. هدف پژوهش حاضر به دست آوردن تغییرات رسوب طی دهه آینده (2030-2011) با استفاده از معادله سنجه رسوب می باشد. برای این منظور از مدل هیدرولوژیکی IHACRES و مدل اقلیمی LARS-WG استفاده شد. مدل IHACRES ابتدا برای 7 ایستگاه هیدرومتری واسنجی و اعتبارسنجی شد سپس با به کارگیری مدل LARS-WG میزان تغییرات درجه حرارت حداقل، حداکثر و بارندگی برای دوره آینده به دست آمدند. این تغییرات به مدل IHACRES اعمال شدند و میزان دبی جریان دوره آتی تخمین زده شد. با استفاده از داده های دبی و رسوب مشاهداتی منحنی سنجه رسوب تهیه و مقادیر دبی رسوب معلق برای دوره آتی محاسبه شد. نتایج نشان داد مقدار بارندگی 68/3 درصد کاهش یافته و دمای حداقل 48/16 و دمای حداکثر نیز 39/5 درصد افزایش یافته است، که به طورکلی منجر به کاهش 16 درصدی رواناب شده است. همچنین تعداد رخدادهای دبی اوج افزایش یافته که بیش ترین افزایش مربوط به ایستگاه هیدرومتری یامچی با دبی متوسط 09/2 و 16 رخداد دبی اوج بالای 6 مترمکعب برثانیه می باشد. این تغییرات اقلیمی به طور متوسط منجر به کاهش 47 درصدی بار معلق رسوب در ایستگاه های مطالعاتی شده است. نتایج پژوهش نشان دهنده تاثیر قابل توجه تغییر اقلیم بر حوزه های آبخیز استان اردبیل می باشد و با توجه به اثرات زیست محیطی تغییر اقلیم لازم است راهکارهایی جهت مدیریت مناسب حوزه های آبخیز اتخاذ شود.

    کلیدواژگان: سنجه رسوب، تغییر اقلیم، Lars-WG، دبی، IHACRES
  • سیده پرستو باهرنیا، حسین نظم فر*، بلال محسن زاده صفحات 23-43

    مقاله حاضر با هدف بررسی تاثیر معیارهای کاربری مسکونی در کاهش جرم خیزی در کلانشهر تبریز انجام شد. روش تحقیق به صورت توصیفی- تحلیلی و جامعه آماری شامل کارشناسان در حوزه الگوهای مسکن در کاهش جرم خیزی در سال 1396 بود که با استناد از دادگستری تبریز 60 نفر بصورت تصادفی انتخاب و مورد مطالعه قرار گرفتند. چارچوب نظری تحقیق نظریه انجمن بین المللی CPTED به سرپرستی گرگوری ساویل بود. ابزار اندازه گیری پرسشنامه محقق ساخته در قالب سه نوع اقدامات طراحی شد. جهت سنجش روایی پرسشنامه از اعتبار محتوایی و جهت سنجش پایایی از آلفای کرونباخ استفاده شد که مورد تایید قرار گرفتند. نتایج آزمون t تک نمونه ای نشان داد؛ شاخصهای اقدامات کالبدی، اقدامات اجتماعی و اقدامات امنیتی کاربری مسکونی و در کاهش وقوع جرم در الگوهای مسکن تاثیر دارند. نتایج آزمون رتبه بندی فریدمن نشان داد؛ از بین ده شاخص شناسایی شده در کاهش جرم؛ پیاده سازی برنامه امنیت گستری کاربری مسکونی با 98/6 در اولویت اول، ترغیب ساکنین برای مشارکت کاربری مسکونی با 66/6 در اولویت دوم، نظارت امنیتی کاربری مسکونی با 51/6 در اولویت سوم، کنترل دسترسی کاربری مسکونی با 97/5 در اولویت چهارم، نظارت طبیعی کاربری مسکونی با 48/5 در اولویت پنجم، همبستگی اجتماعی کاربری مسکونی با 17/5 با در اولویت ششم، کیفیت محیطی کاربری مسکونی با 06/5 در اولویت هفتم، نظارت جمعی کاربری مسکونی با 89/4 در اولویت هشتم، قلمروبندی کاربری مسکونی با 18/4 در اولویت نهم و در نهایت آستانه ظرفیت کاربری مسکونی با 11/4 در اولویت دهم در کاهش جرم خیزی در آپارتمانهای بلند مرتبه در شهر تبریز تاثیر دارند که معیار اقدامات امنیتی در رتبه اول؛ معیار اقدامات کالبدی در رتبه دوم و معیار اقدامات اجتماعی در رتبه سوم می باشند. قاله حاضر با هدف بررسی تاثیر معیارهای کاربری مسکونی در کاهش جرم خیزی در کلانشهر تبریز انجام شد. روش تحقیق به صورت توصیفی- تحلیلی و جامعه آماری شامل کارشناسان در حوزه الگوهای مسکن در کاهش جرم خیزی در سال 1396 بود که با استناد از دادگستری تبریز60 نفر بصورت تصادفی انتخاب و مورد مطالعه قرار گرفتند. چارچوب نظری تحقیق نظریه انجمن بین المللی CPTED به سرپرستی گرگوری ساویل بود. ابزار اندازه گیری پرسشنامه محقق ساخته در قالب سه نوع اقدامات طراحی شد. جهت سنجش روایی پرسشنامه از اعتبار محتوایی و جهت سنجش پایایی از آلفای کرونباخ استفاده شد که مورد تایید قرار گرفتند. نتایج آزمون t تک نمونه ای نشان داد؛ شاخصهای اقدامات کالبدی، اقدامات اجتماعی و اقدامات امنیتی کاربری مسکونی و در کاهش وقوع جرم در الگوهای مسکن تاثیر دارند. نتایج آزمون رتبه بندی فریدمن نشان داد؛ از بین ده شاخص شناسایی شده در کاهش جرم؛ پیاده سازی برنامه امنیت گستری کاربری مسکونی با 98/6 در اولویت اول، ترغیب ساکنین برای مشارکت کاربری مسکونی با 66/6 در اولویت دوم، نظارت امنیتی کاربری مسکونی با 51/6 در اولویت سوم، کنترل دسترسی کاربری مسکونی با 97/5 در اولویت چهارم، نظارت طبیعی کاربری مسکونی با 48/5 در اولویت پنجم، همبستگی اجتماعی کاربری مسکونی با 17/5 با در اولویت ششم، کیفیت محیطی کاربری مسکونی با 06/5 در اولویت هفتم، نظارت جمعی کاربری مسکونی با 89/4 در اولویت هشتم، قلمروبندی کاربری مسکونی با 18/4 در اولویت نهم و در نهایت آستانه ظرفیت کاربری مسکونی با 11/4 در اولویت دهم در کاهش جرم خیزی در آپارتمانهای بلند مرتبه در شهر تبریز تاثیر دارند که معیار اقدامات امنیتی در رتبه اول؛ معیار اقدامات کالبدی در رتبه دوم و معیار اقدامات اجتماعی در رتبه سوم می باشند.

    کلیدواژگان: معیارهای کاربری مسکن، اقدامات کالبدی کاربری مسکونی، اقدامات اجتماعی کاربری مسکونی، اقدامات امنیتی کاربری مسکونی
  • علی محمد خورشیددوست، کاوه محمدپور*، سید اسعد حسینی صفحات 45-66

    پیش بینی تعداد افراد مراجعه کننده به بیمارستان ها در ارتباط با پارامترهای اقلیمی از موضوعات قابل بحت و تامل است که با تغییرات اقلیمی و گسترش شهرنشینی و آلودگی هوا در دهه های اخیر دامن گیر بسیاری از جوامع بشری شده است. استفاده از مدل های پیش بینی می تواند بعنوان ابزاری کارآمد در مدیریت و کنترل بیماری ها، کاهش مرگ و میر و برنامه ریزی ها مورد توجه قرار گیرد که در این پژوهش دو مدل شبکه عصبی مصنوعی و رگرسیون لوجستیک (لاجیت) به عنوان ابزاری کارآمد در پیش بینی فرآیندهای غیرخطی و پیچیده جهت پیش بینی میزان مراجعه کنندگان بیماری آسم در شهر سنندج در ارتباط با پارامترهای اقلیمی مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. داده های مورد بررسی در بازه زمانی 8 ساله (2008-2001) از ایستگاه هواشناسی سینوپتیک سنندج و بیمارستان های توحید و بعثت در سطح شهر سنندج اخذ گردید. سپس، پارامترهای اقلیمی به عنوان ورودی و میزان مراجعه کنندگان بیماری آسم بعنوان خروجی مدل ها در نظر گرفته شدند. نتایج حاصل از بررسی نشان داد که مدل شبکه عصبی با ورود پارامترهای متوسط فشار QFE و میانگین های حداقل و حداکثر دمای ماهانه و همچنین میانگین دمای ماهانه با دقت قابل قبولی میزان مراجعه کنندگان بیماری آسم را پیش بینی می کند به طوری که ضریب همبستگی داده های واقعی و پیش بینی شده برابر با 99/0 است که در سطح 01/0 معنی دار هستند. پارامترهای ورودی در روش لاجیت نیز نشان می دهد که میزان مراجعه کنندگان بیماری آسم از پارامترهای میانگین حداقل دما، متوسط فشار QFF و متوسط سرعت باد (نات) تاثیر  می پذیرند. نسبت لگاریتمی هر کدام از پارامترهای فوق بر روی تعداد مراجعه کننده به ترتیب با ضریب بتای 517/0-، 734/0- و 977/0- معنی دارند و از میان پارامترهای اقلیمی نیز عنصر باد به مراتب بیشتر از سایر پارامترها بر روی میزان تعداد افراد مراجعه کننده به بیمارستان تاثیر گذار است. در مجموع از بین دو مدل غیرخطی مورد بررسی، مدل شبکه عصبی مصنوعی، قابلیت و دقت بیشتری را نسبت به مدل لاجیت نشان داد.

    کلیدواژگان: آسم، اقلیم، شبکه عصبی مصنوعی، رگرسیون لوجستیک، سنندج
  • اکبر رحیمی* صفحات 67-82

    رشد و توسعه شهرنشینی در چند دهه اخیر و در کنار آن تغییرات کاربری اراضی  پیرامون شهرها و مخصوصا شهرهای بزرگ بعنوان یکی از اساسی ترین چالشهای مهم توسعه پایدار جهانی مطرح بوده است. افزایش تمایل به شهرنشینی و مهاجرتهای روستا- شهری و مدیریت نامناسب در توسعه شهری باعث گردیده است که فضاهای سبز و باغات پیرامون و داخل شهرها به کاربریهای سودآور شهری و عمدتا جهت سکونت تغییر کاربری یابند. در این تحقیق شهر تبریز بعنوان یکی از شهرهای بزرگ کشور برای بررسی این تغییرات انتخاب گردیده است و تغییرات فضاهای سبز شهری تبریز در طی دهه های گذشته مورد تحلیل و بررسی قرار گرفته است. برای ارزیابی این تغییرات از تصاویر ماهواره ای لندست استفاده گردیده است که پس از زمین مرجع کردن و تصحیحات لازم تصاویر، طبقه بندی کلاس های کاربری در نرم افزار  Erdas imaging 2014، انجام گردید و نهایتا نقشه کاربری فضاهای سبز در دوره های مختلف بررسی، تهیه گردید. برای پیش بینی تغییرات فضاهای سبز در شهر تبریز برای سال 1405 از شبکه های عصبی مصنوعی (ANN) استفاده گردید. بررسی نتایج به دست آمده نشانگر این بوده است که با گسترش شهر به پیرامون و عمدتا بر روی فضاهای سبز و باغات شهر، تغییرات عمده ای در میزان برخورداری از  فضاهای سبزصورت گرفته است. بطوریکه مساحت 5916.53 هکتاری فضای سبز شهر در سال 1355  به 4373.96 هکتار در سال 1385، کاهش یافته است که تا حدودی این تغییرات آهنگی آهسته تر داشته است. ولی شدت تخریب فضاهای سبز در دهه گذشته بسیار فراتر رفته و در سال 1395، به 1709.02 هکتار کاهش یافته است که 6.73 درصد از کل محدوده بیست و پنج هزار هکتاری تبریز را به خود اختصاص داده است. پیش بینی فضاهای سبز تبریز با استفاده از ANN تا سال 1410 براساس ادامه روند گذشته، نشانگر تخریب گسترده فضاهای سبز شهری و تشدید وضعیت اکولوژیکی ناپایدار در تبریز خواهد شد. بطوریکه در این سالها نیز تبریز 1070 هکتار از مساحت فضاهای سبز را از دست خواهد داد. بنابراین نتایج نمایانگر این است که عدم برنامه ریزی مناسب توسعه شهری تبریز در نیم قرن اخیر و مخصوصا در دهه گذشته  صدمات جبران ناپذیری به فضاهای سبز شهری تبریز وارد ساخته و ادامه این روند در سالهای آتی توسعه پایدار شهری و تعادل اکولوژیکی شهر تبریز را تهدید خواهد کرد.

    کلیدواژگان: تصاویر ماهواره ای، فضاهای سبز شهری، توسعه پایدار، شبکه های عصبی، تبریز
  • رسول قربانی، مهدیه طاهونی*، ناصر قادری صفحات 83-103

    محدوده ی موردمطالعه در این پژوهش شهر سردرود هست نوع تحقیق کاربردی - توسعه ای و روش تحقیق تحلیلی - تطبیقی است که داده ها و اطلاعات موردنیاز به صورت اسنادی و میدانی تهیه گردیده است. در این تحقیق که باهدف ارزیابی تاثیرات کلانشهر تبریز بر ساختار فضایی-کالبدی شهر سردرود هست، از مدل های کمی در جهت تحول فرم فضایی-کالبدی شهر استفاده شده است. بر اساس دیاگرام بوژوگارنیه نقش شهر سردرود در سال 1375 صنعتی بوده درحالی که در سال 1390-1385 نقش بازرگانی را برعهده گرفته است. با مقایسه جایگاه بخش های مختلف اقتصادی شهر سردرود نسبت به استان آذربایجان شرقی با استفاده از مدل تغییر سهم، نرخ رشد کل اقتصاد مرجع برای سال های 1385-1375 برابر 6/1 و ساختار اقتصادی استان در طی دوره مذکور همواره منفی و دارای روند نزولی بوده است و ضریب اشتغال در بخش های کشاورزی برابر 12/0، صنعت 04/0- خدمات معادل 1/1 هست؛ و با بررسی تغییرات بخش های اقتصادی شهر سردرود بر اساس مدل ایزارد تنها بخش خدمات در سطح شهر در مقایسه با ضریب مشابه آن در سطح استان بالاتر 6/252 در مقابل 3/137 درصد است؛ و نتایج به دست آمده از اندازه گیری مدل های فضایی - کالبدی نشان دهنده این است که فرم شهر به سمت پراکنش شهری پیش رفته و می رود و مقادیر شاخص ها در سال 1378 و 1390 به ترتیب بدین صورت است: (آنتروپی نسبی =85/0، جینی= 35/0، موران =03/0، گری =05/0) و (آنتروپی نسبی =91/0، جینی= 36/0، موران =01/0، گری =99/1)؛ که موجب از بین رفتن زمین های کشاورزی و باغات شده است به طوری که در شهر سردرود در سال 1378 سهم باغات و اراضی کشاورزی 2/65 بوده و در سال 1390 به 35/26 درصد رسیده است و نتایج تحلیل مسیر با مقدار 223/0= 2R نشان می دهد که مهاجرت (44/0)، رشد طبیعی (29/0)، نزدیکی به کلانشهر تبریز (31/0)، شرایط و وضعیت خود مکان برابر با (37/0) و درنهایت عوامل اقتصادی (67/0) درصد در تحولات فضایی - کالبدی شهر تاثیرگذار هستند.

    کلیدواژگان: ارزیابی_فرم کالبدی - فضایی_مدل های کمی_کلانشهر تبریز_سردرود
  • مجید رضایی بنفشه، فاطمه جعفری شندی*، فرشته حسینعلی پور جزی صفحات 105-123

    ماهیت بارش سنگین و پیامدهای ناشی از آن سبب شده که این پدیده اهمیت ویژه ای در برنامه ریزی های محیطی و مدیریت منابع آب داشته باشد. در این پژوهش به منظور واکاوی سامانه ی بلاکینگ موثر بر بارش های سنگین تبریز در 1379 مورد روز بارشی، نقشه های فشار تراز دریا، ارتفاع ژیوپتانسیل تراز 500 هکتوپاسکال، مولفه های باد، همگرایی شار رطوبت مورد تجزیه و تحلیل قرار گرفت. با استفاده از نقشه های همدیدی و جابجایی سیستم های جوی همچون ناوه ها، سامانه های کم فشار و پرفشار سطح زمین بررسی شد. داده های بارش روزانه برای ایستگاه تبریز با استفاده از رویکرد محیطی به گردشی طی سال های 2013-1951 تجزیه و تحلیل شد. نتایج پژوهش نشان داد که سه الگوی اصلی فشار تراز دریا در ایجاد این بارش ها موثر بوده و استقرار سردچال در غرب پهنه ی مطالعاتی و همراهی سطح زمین، شرایط را برای ایجاد بارش سنگین فراهم کرده است.

    کلیدواژگان: بارش سنگین، بلاکینگ، رویکرد محیطی به گردشی، همدید
  • شهرام روستایی*، داود مختاری کشکی، زهرا اشرفی فینی صفحات 125-150

    هدف از تحقیق حاضر اولویت بندی عوامل موثر بر وقوع زمین لغزش با استفاده از شاخص آنتروپی شانون و تهیه نقشه خطر پذیری حوضه با استفاده از روش اولویت بندی می باشد.به این منظور با استفاده از تصاویر ماهواره ای ASAR از سنجنده ENVISAT در سال های 2003 الی 2009 و بازدیدهای صحرایی 17 پهنه لغزشی به صورت انتخابی شناسایی و نقشه پراکنش زمین لغزش های منطقه مورد مطالعه در محیط نرم افزار ARCgis تهیه گردید. لایه های اطلاعاتی شیب، جهت شیب، هیپسومتری، نسبت مساحت سطح (ASR)، شاخص موقعیت توپوگرافی (TPI)، شاخص طول شیب (ALS)، شاخص رطوبت (TWI)، زمین شناسی، کاربری اراضی، شاخص پوشش گیاهی نرمال شده (NDVI)، فاصله از گسل، فاصله از رودخانه و فاصله از جاده به عنوان عوامل موثر بر وقوع زمین لغزش شناسایی و نقشه های مذکور در محیط سامانه اطلاعات جغرافیایی تهیه ورقومی گردید.اولویت بندی عوامل موثر با استفاده از شاخص آنتروپی شانون نشان داد که لایه های جهت شیب دامنه، کاربری اراضی، ارتفاع، شیب، شاخص پوشش گیاهی نرمال شده و فاصله از رودخانه بیشترین تاثیر را بر وقوع زمین لغزش حوضه و عوامل شاخص رطوبت، زمین شناسی و شاخص موقعیت توپوگرافی کمترین تاثیر را داشته اند. همچنین تهیه نقشه خطر زمین لغزش با استفاده از مدل آنتروپی و جمع نقشه های وزنی در محیط GIS بدست آمده است. راساس نقشه پهنه بندی خطر زمین لغزش، مناطق واقع در شمال شرق برخی مناطق مرکزی و جنوب غرب دارای خطر بسیار کم تا کم می باشند، در حالیکه بیشتر مناطق مورد مطالعه دارای خطر متوسط تا بسیار زیاد می باشد.

    کلیدواژگان: خطر زمین لغزش، شاخص آنتروپی شانون، سامانه اطلاعات جغرافیایی، حوضه طالقان
  • شهریور روستایی، شیوا علیزاده یوالاری* صفحات 151-171

    یکی از مهم ترین پیامدهای رشد شتابان شهرنشینی در دهه های اخیر از هم پاشیدگی نظام توزیع مراکز خدمات شهری بوده که زمینه ساز نابرابری اجتماعی شهروندان در برخورداری از این خدمات شده است. در این میان، موضوع خدمات رسانی و برخورداری نامناسب و گاه متناقض مناطق مختلف شهرها از خدمات عمومی، با مفهوم عدالت فضایی در تضاد است، به طوری که کاستی های موجود در این خدمات از اساسی ترین چالش های موجود در شهرهای جهان به ویژه شهرهای کشورهای در حال توسعه است.رویکرد حاکم براین پژوهش، توصیفی، تحلیلی است و ماهیت آن می تواند کاربردی باشد بدین منظور داده های آماری مورد نظر، از سازمان های مربوطه تهیه شده است با توجه به این که بسیاری از زیر ساخت های اقتصادی و سرمایه گذاری ها در شهرستان های بزرگ استان صورت گرفته و باعث جمعیت پذیری شهرستان های کاملا برخوردار می شود  این امر باعث توزیع نابرابر خدمات و امکانات در سطح استان است در این تحلیل سطح توسعه یافتگی   شهرستان های استان آذربایجان غربی در 5 دسته از برخوردار تا عدم برخورداری تقسیم بندی گردید. از این رو پژوهش حاضر با توجه به مفهوم عدالت فضایی، به تحلیل برخورداری ساکنین شهرستان های مختلف استان آذربایجان غربی از خدمات عمومی پرداخته است. به این منظور41شاخص فرم سازی، انتخاب و با استفاده از روش تحلیل عاملی به تجزیه و تحلیل شاخص ها پرداخته و آن ها را در 10عامل معنی دار دسته بندی کرده است و رتبه بندی شهرستان ها بر مبنای این 10عامل انجام شده است. بر اساس این نتایج شهرستان های ارومیه، خوی، نقده به ترتیب در رتبه های اول تا سوم و شهرستان های پیرانشهر، تکاب، بوکان به ترتیب در رتبه های آخر قرارگرفته اند.لذا وجود این تفاوت در سطح استان، لزوم اجرای برنامه ها و طرح های هدفمند را جهت تعدیل نابرابری ها را ایجاد می کند.

    کلیدواژگان: عدالت فضایی، خدمات عمومی، نابرابری، تحلیل عاملی
  • عطاءالله زرفشان*، محمدرضا پورمحمدی، اسماعیل نصیری، سید مهدی موسی کاظمی صفحات 173-199

    تحولات شهرنشینی پس از انقلاب صنعتی و ظهور مدرنیسم در شهرسازی موجب از بین رفتن عناصر و ساختارهای سنتی شهرها گردیده و منطقه بندی عملکردی جای نظام ارگانیک و تنوع عملکردی شهرها و محلات شهری را گرفت. اما از نیمه دوم قرن بیستم با انتقاد از شهرسازی مدرن، رویکر پست- مدرن ظهور کرد که اعتقاد به بازگشت به آنچه که از نظر مدرنیست ها کهنه و قدیمی بود، داشت. محله یکی از عناصر شهری بوده که دچار این تغییر و دگرگونی شده است. امروزه شواهد روشنی از ارج نهادن مجدد به محله به عنوان یک واحد موجه ساخت شهری دیده می شود. اکثر نظریاتی که از دو دهه پایانی قرن بیستم مطرح شده اند، براین عنصر شهری تاکید می کنند و بازگشت به محلات انسان محور که از پیاده روی و تنوع عملکردی برخوردارند را جزء اصول شهرسازی انسان محور قلمداد می کنند. این تحقیق با ارزیابی این دو مولفه اصلی در محلات بافت های سه گانه (سنتی، مدرن و خودرو) کلانشهر تبریز به این نتیجه رسید که اولا با استفاده از شاخص های آنتروپی و آتکینسون مشخص شد که میزان اختلاط کاربری در محلات سنتی نسبت به محلات بافت های مدرن و خودرو بیشتر است، دوما بین میزان کاربری مختلط و تمایل به دسترسی پیاده به کاربری های دیگر در محلات سنتی همبستگی بسیار بالایی وجود دارد. از اینرو محلات سنتی با وجود مشکلاتی که دارند، به دلیل تنوع عملکردی و دسترسی پیاده ساکنان به نیازهای خود از عملکرد نسبتا مطلوب محله ای برخوردارند.

    کلیدواژگان: محله، پیاده محوری، اختلاط کاربری اراضی، شهر تبریز
  • محمدحسین قلی زاده*، سمیرا حمیدی صفحات 197-217

    این پژوهش به منظور ارزیابی تغییرپذیری تداوم بارش در استان کردستان انجام گرفت. یک پایگاه داده در ابعاد 8×9620 با استفاده از داده های روزانه ی بارش ایستگاه های همدید استان کردستان در بازه زمانی 1/1/1989 تا 31/12/2014 تهیه شد و به کمک آزمون ناپارامتریک من کندال در سطوح اطمینان 90، 95 و 99 درصد، معناداری روند داده ها ارزیابی شده است.  تخمین گر شیب سن برای برآورد شیب و آزمون انحرافات تجمعی و بیشینه ورسلی برای شناسایی سال جهش در سری زمانی مقادیر بارش ماهانه استفاده شده است. همچنین معناداری تفاوت در میانگین سری زمانی، قبل و بعد از سال جهش به کمک آزمون من ویتنی بررسی گردید. یافته ها نشان دهنده کاهش تداوم بارش هادر ماه های پربارش و افزایش آن در ماه های خشک استان کردستان است. نرخ تداوم بارش ها در ماه های فصل زمستان در اغلب ایستگاه ها کاسته شده و بیشترین کاهش این فصل در ماه مارس بوده است. نتایج در سطح اطمینان 95 درصد نشان داد به ازای هر دهه یک روز از تدوام بارش در ماه ژانویه کاسته شده است. در فصل بهار نیز تداوم بارش در اغلب ایستگاه ها کاهش یافته است. به طوری که نرخ کاهش تداوم بارش در ماه می، به طور متوسط  5/0 روز در هر دهه است. اما در فصل تابستان در سطح اطمینان 99 درصد تداوم بارش در اغلب ایستگاه ها 2/0 روز در هر دهه افزایش داشته است. در ماه اکتبر، بیشینه روند افزایشی تداوم بارش در سطح اطمینان 99 درصد، 8/0 روز در هر دهه به دست آمد. در دیگر ماه های فصل پاییز از تدوام بارش ها کاسته شده است. نتایج حاصل از آزمون من ویتنی نشان داد که در اغلب ایستگاه ها طی دهه اخیر، تداوم بارش جهش معناداری داشته است. به طور کلی تداوم بارش در ماه های جولای، اوت، سپتامبر و اکتبر روند افزایشی و در سایر ماه های سال در محدوده مورد مطالعه روند کاهشی داشته است.

    کلیدواژگان: استان کردستان، تداوم بارش، جهش، روند
  • عاطفه شاهمحمدی، علی بیات*، سعید مشهدی زاده ملکی صفحات 201-219

    آلودگی هوا یکی از مهم ترین مشکلات شهرهای بزرگ است که می تواند برای سلامت انسان ها و محیط زیست زیان آور باشد. دی اکسید نیتروژن، یکی از آلاینده های مهم آلودگی هوا است که با استفاده از ایستگاه های زمینی و برآورد های ماهواره ای پایش می شود. در این مطالعه، داده های دی اکسید نیتروژن برآورد شده توسط سنجنده امی و داده های باد، دمای سطحی و دید افقی   اندازه گیری شده توسط ایستگاه سینوپتیک شهر تبریز طی سال های 2004 تا 2016 جهت بررسی آلودگی هوای شهر تبریز مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. مقدار میانگین دی اکسید نیتروژن در   فصل های بهار، تابستان، پاییز و زمستان به ترتیب برابر 142.13ا—1015"> ، 141.90ا—1015"> ، 143.88ا—1015">  و 14 5.36ا—1015">  و مقدار میانگین آن برابر 14 ">   142.84ا—1015">  مولکول بر سانتی متر مربع در بازه اندازه گیری است. همچنین بیشترین مقدار انحراف معیار دی اکسید نیتروژن در فصل زمستان، 144.10ا—1015">  و کمترین مقدار آن در فصل تابستان، 140.97ا—1015">  رخ داده است. ضریب همبستگی دی اکسید نیتروژن با باد و دما به ترتیب 14-0.49">  و 14-0.32">  بدست آمد که اهمیت بیشتر باد را در تغییرات این آلاینده نشان می دهد. با استفاده از آنالیز طیفی کمترین مربعات دوره های تناوب چهار، شش و دوازده ماهه مشاهده شد که از نظر آماری نیز معنی دار شناخته شدند. پس از حذف مولفه های معنی دار از سری زمانی میانگین ماهانه دی اکسید نیتروژن، مقدار روند دی اکسید نیتروژن در هر سال برای شهر تبریز 141.05ا—1014">  مولکول بر سانتی متر مربع بدست آمد.

    کلیدواژگان: آب و هواشناسی_برنامه ریزی شهری
  • نگین عالی*، معصومه رجبی، میراسدالله حجازی، شهرام روستایی صفحات 221-243

    پارامترهای طبیعی از عوامل اصلی و تعیین کننده جهات توسعه ی فیزیکی شهرهای کوهستانی نظیر مریوان محسوب می شوند. بنابراین شناسایی و ارزیابی عوامل تاثیرگذاربر توسعه فیزیکی این شهر از اهمیت بسزایی برخوردار است. برای این کار از  شاخص های پهنه بندی ارتفاعی، شیب و جهت شیب، گسل، نقاط کانونی وقوع زلزله، فرسایش و آبراهه های اصلی و فرعی استفاده شده است. تحقیق کاربردی و روش انجام آن توصیفی_ تحلیلی می باشد برای ارزیابی و مدل سازی نواحی مناسب توسعه از مدل منطق فازی استفاده شده است. به طوری که هرکدام از لایه ها با توجه به توابع عضویتی فازی در محیط GIS فازی سازی شده اند و سپس عملگر ضرب، جمع و مقادیر مختلف گامای فازی، روی این لایه ها اجراشده است. پس از روی هم گذاری و ضرب لایه های فازی شده، نقشه پهنه بندی مسیر مناسب توسعه شهر تهیه گردید و در 5 کلاس کاملا مناسب، نسبتا مناسب، مناسب، نامناسب و کاملا نامناسب برای توسعه تقسیم بندی گردید. نتایج نشان داد مناسب ترین مسیر برای توسعه آتی شهر مریوان سمت شرقی و تا حدی جنوب شرقی این شهر  می باشد.

    کلیدواژگان: عوامل ژئومورفولوژیکی، منطق فازی، مکان یابی، توسعه شهری، مریوان
  • مهدی عبدالله زاده*، محمدرحیم رهنما، محمد اجزاء شکوهی صفحات 245-271

    آگاهی از فرم فضایی و شکل شهر یکی از عوامل مهم تاثیرگذار در میزان موفقیت برنامه ریزان و دست اندرکاران شهری می باشد و به بهبود محیط های شهری کمک شایانی می نماید. در پژوهش حاضر، در تلاشیم تا با استفاده از روش های کمی، الگوی رشد فضایی- کالبدی کلانشهر تبریز را ارزیابی کنیم. پژوهش حاضر، از نظر ماهیت و روش، دارای رویکرد توصیفی-  تحلیلی و کاربردی است. بطوری که، ابتدا با استفاده از مطالعات میدانی، اسنادی و کتابخانه ای به بررسی و استخراج اطلاعات مورد نیاز پرداخته و سپس فرم کالبدی- فضایی رشد شهر تبریز را با استفاده از روش های کمی (اندازه متروپل، تراکم، درجه تجمع، توزیع متعادل) محاسبه کرده است؛ نتایج پژوهش نشان می دهد که کلانشهر تبریز با روند توسعه ناموزونی روبه روست؛ لذا، عدم تعادلی میان رشد وسعت شهر و رشد جمعیت به وجود آمده که سبب شده شهر در سطحی وسیعتر از آنچه باید باشد، شکل گیرد. لذا، الگوی رشد در کلانشهر تبریز، پراکنده می باشد؛ اما، این الگو با توجه به نتایج محاسبه شده برای سال 1390، بیانگر این واقعیت است که گرایش به الگوی تصادفی دارد. با توجه به پیامدهای پراکنش شهری و در راستای دست یابی به شکل پایدار شهری در کلانشهر تبریز، نیازمند اجرای سیاست های متراکم سازی و فشرده سازی می باشیم.

    کلیدواژگان: درجه تجمع، توزیع متعادل، رشد فضایی، کلانشهر تبریز
  • سمیه علیپور، ابوالفضل مشکینی*، محسن احدنژاد روشتی صفحات 273-295

    مفهوم مسکن مناسب را نه تنها در ابعاد فیزیکی و کالبدی، بلکه در قالب نیازهای زیستی، فرهنگی، اجتماعی، اقتصادی و امنیتی آن باید جستجو نمود. نیاز به مسکن دو بعد کمی و کیفی دارد، در بعد کمی؛ شناخت پدیده ها و اموری که به فقدان سرپناه و دسترسی مربوط بوده در بعد کیفی نیز با بی مسکنی و تنگ مسکنی مرتبط می باشد. هدف پژوهش بررسی شاخص های کمی و کیفی مسکن شهر کرج منطبق با شاخص های استاندارد و رتبه بندی محلات کلان شهر کرج می باشد. پژوهش از نوع کاربردی توسعه ای و روش آن توصیفی تحلیلی است. گردآوری اطلاعات با بررسی منابع و اطلاعات تفصیلی سرشماری نفوس و مسکن مرکز آمار به خصوص بخش مسکن سال 1390 می باشد. جامعه آماری مورد بررسی نیز 120 محله از مجموع 138 محله شهر کرج می باشد. ابزار اندازه گیری و تجزیه و تحلیل اطلاعات به دست آمده در این مقاله با استفاده از مدل نوین و کارآمد به ویژه در حوزه مسکن یعنی مدل تصمیم گیری و رتبه بندی ELECTRE III با بهره گیری از سیستم نرم افزاری SANNA و به صورت تلفیق 36 زیر شاخص در غالب دو شاخص کمی و کیفی می باشد. نتایج تحقیق نشان می دهد که محله 4 از منطقه 5، محله 5 از منطقه 5 و محله 2 از منطقه 2 در رتبه های برتر و محله 2 از منطقه 11 آخرین رتبه می باشد. اختلاف مناطق و محلات شهر نشان از تلفیق مسکن های مناسب و نامناسب در کنار یکدیگر و یکدست نبودن شهر به لحاظ شاخص های مسکن می باشد.

    کلیدواژگان: شاخص های کمی و کیفی_محلات_کرج_مدل های MCDM_مدل ELECTRE III
  • سکینه کدخدایی*، سعید جهانبخش اصل، خلیل ولیزاده کامران صفحات 319-337

    ذخایر برفی حوضه های کوهستانی از منابع آبی مهم کشور محسوب می شوند که شناخت دقیق کمیت این منابع به لحاظ ارزش روزافزون آب شیرین و هم به دلیل بهره برداری بهینه از منابع آب ضروری است. در این پژوهش از تصاویر سطح برف MODIS (MOD 10 A2) و تغییرات سطح پوشش برف در سال 90- 1389 برای شبیه سازی رواناب حاصل از ذوب برف در حوضه آبریز سهزاب (از زیر حوضه های قسمت جنوبی سبلان) با به کارگیری مدل SRM، استفاده شد. ارزیابی مدل SRM با استفاده از دو شاخص ضریب همبستگی و تفاضل حجمی به ترتیب برابر با 81 و 3/2 درصد می باشد. شاخص ضریب همبستگی ازنظر قابل قبول بودن بستگی به کیفیت داده ها دارد و ممکن است با داشتن داده های کافی مقدار 85% هم قابل قبول نباشد ولی در حوضه ای با داده های کم و بی کیفیت مقادیر پایین تر هم قابل قبول می باشند. با توجه به کمبود داده های هواشناسی و زمینی در حوضه آبریز سهزاب، نتیجه به دست آمده برای حوضه مذکور قابل قبول می باشد. استفاده از مدل های هیدرولوژیکی و تصاویر ماهواره ای به همراه داده های زمینی قوی می توانند به عنوان ابزاری برای برنامه ریزی و مدیریت منابع آب مخصوصا در حوضه هایی که ذوب برف یکی از فاکتورهای ایجاد رواناب است، مورداستفاده قرار گیرد.

    کلیدواژگان: برف، تصاویر MODIS، مدل SRM، حوضه سهزاب، سبلان
  • صدیقه کیانی سلمی*، سعید عباسیان صفحات 339-367

    هدف از تحقیق بررسی نقش گردشگری در توانمندسازی ساکنان روستاهای بخش مرکزی شهرستان نطنز است. پژوهش بر اساس هدف کاربردی و بر اساس روش، توصیفی - تحلیلی است. ابزار جمع آوری اطلاعات، پرسشنامه محقق ساخته با 85 سوال است که روایی آن به روش صوری و ساختاری و پایایی آن با ضریب آلفای کرونباخ تایید شد. جامعه آماری 4046 نفر است که حجم نمونه با جدول مورگان 354 نفر برآورد گردید. برای انجام تحلیل های آماری از نرم افزار SPSS استفاده شده است. نتایج میانگین توانمندی در روستاهای گردشگرپذیر با مقدار 34/3 آن را در جایگاه بالاتری از روستاهای غیر گردشگر پذیر با میانگین 15/3 قرار داده است. نتایج آزمون تی، اثر گردشگری بر توانمندسازی فرهنگی و اجتماعی را در سطح اطمینان 95 درصد مورد تایید قرار می دهد. وجود سطح معناداری 155/0 اثر گردشگری بر توانمندی اقتصادی را رد نموده است. مقدار آماره مقایسه توانمندسازی در قالب ابعاد سه گانه بین روستاهای گردشگر پذیر و غیرگردشگر پذیر در آزمون فیشر با درجات آزادی 1 و 298 برابر با 967/5 شده است. به این صورت اختلاف بین توانمندسازی کل در روستاهای گردش پذیر و غیر گردش پذیر معنادار است. مقادیر صفر سطح معناداری برای آزمون ویلکاکسون بین ابعاد توانمندسازی، نشان می دهد که این ابعاد دو به دو با هم دارای اختلاف معنادار هستند. به این ترتیب توانمندسازی فرهنگی با میانگین 48/3 در بالاترین سطح و توانمندسازی اقتصادی با میانگین 98/2 در پایین ترین سطح قرار دارند. نتایج حاصل از خوشه بندی متغیرها نیز حاکی از آن است که ابعاد فرهنگی و اجتماعی بر اساس درونمایه مفهومی به مراتب، به هم نزدیکتر هستند.

    کلیدواژگان: توانمندسازی فرهنگی، توانمندسازی اقتصادی، توانمندسازی اجتماعی، جامعه محلی، بخش مرکزی شهرستان نطنز
  • شبنم محمودی*، داود مختاری، محمدحسین رضایی مقدم، عباس مرادی صفحات 369-390

    احداث تاسیسات و تعیین حاشیه امن ساحلی، بدون آگاهی از رفتار خط ساحلی امکانپذیر نیست و اتلاف هزینه و مخاطرات زیادی را بدنبال دارد. هدف این پژوهش، بررسی تغییرات خط ساحلی بخشی از ساحل شهر جاسک، واقع در شرق استان هرمزگان است. در این تحقیق به منظور تفسیر بصری از تصاویر لندست متعلق به 16 می 2016 و 15 می،1989، ترکیب رنگی کاذب ساخته شد. و مرز بین خشکی و آب با استفاده از عملگرهای طیفی در محیط Arc Map مشخص گردید سپس میزان تغییرات خطوط ساحلی در دو مقطع زمانی با استفاده از پلی گون تغییرات برآورد شد. از تصاویر ماهواره ای گوگل ارث برای بررسی و نشان دادن بخش هایی از ساحل استفاده گردید. بر اساس نتایج این پژوهش، در ساحل شرقی مساحت مناطق دارای پیشروی بیش از پسروی است اما در ساحل غربی عکس این مسیله دیده می شود. در مجموع تغییرات در ساحل شرقی بیش از ساحل غربی است علت تغییرات بیشتر، در ساحل شرقی می تواند نتیجه ساخت سه اسکله جدید دارای موج شکن باشد که بعد از سال 2006 سال ساخته شده است. بالا آمدگی سواحل به علت فرورانش صفحه عمان نیز می تواند از عوامل طبیعی تغییرات خط ساحلی باشد.

    کلیدواژگان: مدلسازی خط ساحلی_RS & GIS_بندرجاسک_دریای عمان
  • عامر نیک پور*، مرتضی رضازاده، فاطمه الهقلی تبار نشلی صفحات 391-418

    امروزه تلاش جهت تحقق توسعه انسانی، سنجش و تعیین فقر شهری موضوعی است که در سیاستگزاری و مدیریت توسعه انسانی در بسیاری از کشورهای مواجه با آن دنبال می شود و این امر نیازمند اتخاذ روش های علمی به ویژه در تعیین جغرافیایی پهنه های فقیرنشین شهری از طریق کاربرد روش های آماری و تعریف شاخص های مناسب جهت تعیین ابعاد متفاوت فقر شهری است. نوع تحقیق حاضر کاربردی می باشد و در تدوین این تحقیق از روش های توصیفی-تحلیلی و اسنادی-پیمایشی استفاده شده است. داده های مورد استفاده از بلوک های آماری سال 1390 مرکز آمار ایران به دست آمده است. برای استخراج و طبقه بندی داده های این پژوهش از نرم افزار GIS و از ابزارHot Spot Analysis برای تحلیل الگوهای فقر استفاده شده است. شاخص های مورد استفاده در این پژوهش در سه بعد اقتصادی، اجتماعی و کالبدی بررسی شده است. نتایج یافته ها در بعد اقتصادی نشان داد که محدوده های شمالی غربی و جنوب شرقی شهر از فقر گسترده ای رنج می برند. در این مناطق بیش از 23 درصد جمعیت شهر در شرایط فقر نسبی و 7/1 درصد جمعیت در شرایط فقر مطلق هستند. در بعد اجتماعی بیش از 36 درصد از مساحت شهر در فقرنسبی و مطلق هستند که حدود 9/29 درصد از جمعیت شهر در این مناطق زندگی می کنند. در بعد کالبدی فقر حاشیه های جنوبی و شمال شرقی شهر همچون ابعاد اقتصادی و اجتماعی در شرایط نامساعد کالبدی قرار دارند. از نظر فضایی غالب محلات 19، 18 و 11 در شرایط فقرکالبدی هستند. در الگوی نهایی فقر نتایج نشان داد پهنه های فقر در شهر بابل جمعیتی بالغ بر 47140 نفر را در خود جای داده اند که 2/35 درصد از جمعیت کل شهر را تشکیل می دهد این پهنه ها غالبا در محدوده های حاشیه ای شمال شرقی و جنوبی شهر قرار دارند.

    کلیدواژگان: الگوی فضایی، پهنه بندی، ابعاد فقر، فقرشهری، بابل
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  • Nayer Aghabeigi, Abazar Esmali Ouri *, Raoof Mostafazadeh, Mohammad Golshan Pages 1-21
    Introduction

    Estimation of the rivers sediment load has high complexity due to effecting different parameters in this aspect. Regarding the power relationship between discharge data and suspended sediment load use of sediment rating curves is one of the most common methods for determining the sediment yield in ungauged watersheds. Sediment condition shows the upstream characters and using the obtained data makes a relationship between erosion and sediment load. The different parameters such as climate, land use, data accuracy, and the applied methods have an effect on the sediment rating curve shape. Agriculture activities such as tillage in the direction of slope lead to accelerated erosion in the watersheds, especially in the Mediterranean area. These decades many studies assessing the effects of climate changes in the future period and it affects runoff. In this study, the main objective is to obtain sediment changes during the future decade (2011-2030) using the curve rating in sediment estimating. For this purpose, the IHACRES hydrologic model and the LARS_WG climate model were used.

    Material and Methode

    The IHACRES model for seven hydrometric stations was calibrated and validated. This model is rainfall and runoff erosion that require a little data for running including minimum and maximum temperature, rainfall, discharge and study are. This model defined as a lumped model and highly common in watersheds with scarce data. With running this model in all of the models the model parameters were calibrated. Also, the LARS_WG model was used for determining the weather changes that are occurring in the Samian watershed. This watershed has near to 4 thousand square kilometers that have many sub-watersheds. In this study, the watersheds in the west of the Samian watershed were selected for modeling. The average of rainfall in this area is between 220 and 457 mm, and the weather temperature changes in this region are high and that is between -32 to 34 C°. The results of LARS_WG showed the weather changes in each part of the hydrological model inputs that these changes were applied to the IHACRES model and the discharge flow rate was estimated for the future. On the other hand, using the observed discharge and sediment yield were calculated the sediment curve rate. By changes in flow discharge at the study stations, were calculated the suspended sediment discharges for the future period.

    results and discussion

    The results of the LARS_WG model showed that the amount of precipitation decreased to 3.68 percent and the minimum and the maximum temperature increased by 16.48 and 5.39 percent, respectively. Decreasing the input precipitation in most parts of the world particularly in Iran watersheds mentioned in many studies. One of the other the most important effect of climate change in this area is minimum and maximum temperature increase that leads to evapotranspiration increasing and soil moisture loss. The results of the IHACRES model showed that this model has a suitable capability for simulation runoff in the study area, therefore, it was used for estimating the future runoff regarding climate changes. The model output showed that during the next decades the average flow rate in the hydrometric stations will decrease by a total of 16 percent and the number of peak flood events will increase, that the highest increase between the study watersheds observed in the Yamchi hydrometric station with a mean of 2.09 m3s-1 and 16 peak events with over 6 m3s-1. Using the obtained results of the climatic model, hydrological model and the sediment rating curve the suspend sediment changes were estimated for the future period. The result shows that these climatic changes will lead to a 47 percent reduction in the average suspended sediment load at study stations.

    Conclusion

    The consequences of climate change have a significant effect on water resources quality and quantity. The aims of this study were to calculate the weather changes and it's ruling on discharge and sediment yield changed. the results of this study indicate the effect of climate change on the Ardabil province watersheds is remarkable. Considering the environmental impacts of climate change and dependence on human life on the environment it is necessary to implement an appropriate approach for decent management in Watersheds.

    Keywords: Rating curve, Climate Change, Lars-WG, Discharge, IHACRES
  • Seyedeh Parastoo Bahernia, Hossein Nazmfar *, Belal Mohsenzadeh Pages 23-43
    Introduction

    Developments and growth of urbanization and uncontrolled growth of non-standard textures and unbalanced spatial and physical growth of urban neighborhoods have caused many problems in all fields and the occurrence of various crimes caused by urban design disorders and inappropriate textures of urban neighborhoods. One of the major problems in urban planning, given the population growth and physical development of cities, is the guidance of urban settlements in accordance with the principles of location. Today, with the increasing expansion of various criteria and criteria of urban planning, there is a need to use models and software that can consider all these criteria and according to a combination of them, meet the various needs of urban managers. Research shows that criminals are often rational in their choice of crime scene and are looking for the least dangerous and appropriate opportunities for crime. Thus, in the city limits, centers are formed that have more criminal opportunities and targets, and consequently higher crime rates. Attention to the space, as a direct factor in the occurrence of crime, in comparison with individual or structural factors, makes it possible to think of more practical solutions to prevent crime. As a result, the aim of the present study was to determine the effect of residential use criteria on crime reduction in Tabriz metropolis. The need to conduct this research with the aim of changing and modifying some uses and more control over residential uses with complex physical elements that are vulnerable to crime and achieving measures to reduce crime rates in Tabriz and help to improve safety and security in society Was. The result of the question that in this research, considering the problems raised in Tabriz metropolis, made the researcher's mind investigate; It was a crime among the citizens.

    Methodology

    The present study is applied in terms of purpose and analytical-descriptive in terms of the nature and method of data collection. The statistical population included experts in the field of housing patterns in reducing crime in Tabriz metropolis in 1396. According to the Tabriz Judicial Statistics Department, 60 experts were randomly selected and answered the questionnaire on the impact of residential use metrics in Tabriz metropolis with ten regions. The measurement tool was designed as a researcher-made questionnaire that includes 48 items in a 5-item Likert scale for the identified indicators using crime prevention approaches in residential patterns, which in the factor analysis confirm the removal of 3 items and finally with 45 items were designed.

    Results and discussion

    The present article was conducted with the aim of influencing residential use criteria in reducing crime in Tabriz metropolis. The results showed that planning and physical actions, planning and social measures and planning and security measures of high-rise residential uses have an effect on reducing crime in Tabriz metropolis with different values. The second and social indicators are the last priority. As a result, paying attention to the environment and residential patterns in crime prevention can be fruitful. Most theories have focused on physical actions and planning for residential use patterns in crime. However, with the rise of buildings and the lack of control and access to units and residents, theorists turned their attention to social measures and planning in these places and benefiting from the interaction and cooperation of residents in increasing control in such places. Security was considered. Therefore, in the present study, the three criteria of physical, social and security measures and plans and their indicators in reducing crime have been identified and evaluated by residential and criminology experts.

    Conclusion

    Based on the results of the present study on the effect of planned and social and security planning and residential measures on residential use reduction patterns in such places and in line with the theories and results of the mentioned research, it can be understood that due to population expansion And the lack of land to build residential areas in metropolitan areas, along with changing people's lifestyles and the increase in apartment living due to the consequences of modernity, as well as the advancement of technology and construction of towers and skyscrapers in metropolitan areas; For the construction of such residential premises in addition to construction and Legal instruments and attention to building strength and safety; in consultation with environmental criminologists and exchanging views with them, it is necessary to provide expert expertise in physical dimensions such as access control - environmental quality - natural monitoring and domination; social such as threshold capacity and social solidarity between Residents should consider preventing and preventing the occurrence of crime in such units. But these plans can be partially effective in reducing crime in these places. Residents also have responsibilities to improve the security of the building. As a result, paying attention to security in and around the building and neighborhood, along with physical and social planning, as a complement and catalyst can play a decisive role in reducing crime in such residential areas. One of the most important and effective interactions is mass monitoring as well as encouraging residents to participate.

    Keywords: Housing use criteria, physical use of residential use, social measures of residential use, security measures of residential use
  • Ali Mohammad Khorshiddoust, Kaveh Mohammadpour *, Seyyed Asaad Hosseini Pages 45-66
    Introduction

    Prediction of hospital admissions related to climatic parameters is discussed matters that in recent decades in result from climate change, urbanization and air pollution has triggered widespread in many societies. Fluctuations in climatic parameters, in turn, can have a significant impact on mortality and mortality, and the use of predictive models can be used to identify fluctuations in climatic parameters affecting disease and their prevalence and planning and Compatibility with the environment to be effective.

    Methodology

    Using of predictive models can be consider as an effective tool in managing and controlling the diseases, reducing mortality and planning. Recent study used from Artificial Neural Networks and Logistic Regression models as an effective tool in the prediction of nonlinear processes to predict the rate of asthma admissions related to Climatic parameters in Sanandaj/Sine city. Used data during period of 8-years (2001-2008) collected from synoptic station and Toheid and Beasat hospitals in the Sanandaj/Sine city. Then, the climatic parameters and rate of asthma admissions considered as an input and output data of models, respectively.

    Result and Discussion

    The results of the output of two nonlinear models of artificial neural network and Logit in examining the effect of climatic parameters on the number of the asthma patients in Sanandaj/Sine showed that the monthly average parameters with high coefficient of determination (R2=0.98) of temperature (average, minimum, maximum) and QFE pressure in the artificial neural network model and The monthly average minimum temperature, QFF pressure and wind speed (in Knot) in the Logit model have had the greatest impact on the rate of asthma admissions in the city. As the wind speed in the Logit model is more effective than other climatic parameters, that it is clear with the logarithmic superiority (-0.977) and the Wald coefficient (85.616). In general, air pressure, temperature and wind speed are the most effective climatic parameters on the number of asthma patients visiting the hospital. Therefore, depending on the accuracy of the models, the above argument means that among the parameters examined, the elements are more important than other parameters in the city. As the climatic elements have a more effective role in the admission patients to the hospital, and their fluctuations will be more significant in patients' fluctuations. The effects of environmental parameters (climate and pollutants) on diseases have previously been investigated as well, so that the results of previous logistic regression have display a increase respiratory disease, vulnerability of children to asthma and an increase in allergies; In the present study, the results of Logit model (69.5%) also indicate that decrease in the average minimum temperature lead to a decrease in the number of the asthma patients, it means that the rate of asthma is more less in temperatures close to zero or higher and vice versa, the admission more higher in the colder temperature (below zero); in the other words, the more balanced the temperature has the lower the rate, and in the colder the ambient temperature has the highest the number of asthma patients. Thus, comparison the present results and previous studies show that admissions change depending on climate, geographic position and the fluctuation of the elements and then the specific geographical location and the different climatic types of a region will play a decisive role in the number of asthma visitors to hospital.

    Conclusion

    The results indicated that Artificial Neural Network model predicted the asthma admissions related to monthly minimum, maximum and average temperatures with considerable accuracy, so that the correlation between actual and predicted data is significant with 0.01 coefficient and 0.99 confidence. Also, Input parameters in the Logit method shows that the rate of asthma admissions affected by parameters of average minimum temperature, average pressure QFF and average wind speed (in knot). In other words, the logarithmic ratio of each of cited parameters is significant with β-coefficients (-0.517), (-0.734) and (-0.977), respectively, that throughout of studied parameters is wind element of effective in asthma admissions then others to the hospital. In general, Artificial Neural Network model showed more sufficiency and accuracy than Logit model. As a result, both Logistic Regression and the Artificial Neural Network methods show that climatic parameters have a greater than 50% effect on the number of asthma patients referred to the hospital (the accuracy models: 69.5 and 98, respectively). In the Artificial Neural Network model, the most accurate possible result shows the more effective role of climatic parameters of temperature and air pressure on the asthma patients. Also, filtering the parameters examined at the output of the Logistic model showed the most possible coefficients for minimum temperature, QFF air pressure and wind speed (knot), among which wind speed was the most important element. Finally, the accuracy of the models showed that the Artificial Neural Network model has a higher accuracy depending on the coefficient of determination and highest correlation. Thus, Artificial Neural Network and Logit as nonlinear methods could well predict the relationship between climatic parameters and the number of the asthma patients. Also, according to the appropriate selection of input parameters and determination of different structures in the neural network is possible to design different models with the highest efficiency and can be considered as an effective and powerful tool in estimating similar studies.

    Keywords: Asthma, Artificial neural network, Climate, Logit, Logistic Regression, Sanandaj, Sine
  • Akbar Rahimi * Pages 67-82
    Introduction

     In recent decades, research on land use/land cover change has become an important aspect of global change, or global warming studies, since land use/land cover change is a major factor for global change because of its interactions with climate, ecosystem processes, biogeochemical cycles, biodiversity, and, even more important, human activities.Dynamic urban change processes, especially the tremendous worldwide expansion of urban population and urbanized area, affect natural and human systems at all geographic scales. Todays, the rapid growth of urban areas has led to complex problems, including traffic congestion, environmental pollution, reduced open space, the deterioration of old downtown centers, and unplanned or poorly planned land development. Urbanization both in population and spatial extent, transforms the landscape from the natural cover types to impervious urban lands. This phenomenon is one of the most important factors that changes land surface leading to modification of receiving environments which are usually composed of natural cover. Rapid urbanization in recent decades and land use changes in urban periphery especially in big cities are the fundamental challenges of sustainable development in the world.   Increasing of urbanization tendency and rural – urban migration, unsuitable management of urban development caused that the green spaces and gardens in urban periphery and in inner areas changed to urban profitable land use and especially residential areas. In this research urban expansion and rapid urbanized areas and effect of these challenges in urban green spaces are analyzed.

    Methodology

     To address these urban problems and to identify approaches for sustainable development, many researchers have focused on evaluation urban land-use changes. In this research, we selected Tabriz City for analyzing as a case study. Urban green spaces changes in Tabriz analyzed using Landsat satellite images for past decades. Satellite remote sensing provides an important source of land use/land cover data and can be utilized to monitor the changes in these data efficiently. In the first, we were made geo reference and necessary correction for satellite images and then we classified images using Erdas imaging 2014 software. For Quantitative assessment, the maps export to Arc GIS 10. 3.1 Software and finally, the green spaces land use maps and tables are produced. For analyzing green areas in future, green spaces changings in 1410 are modeled using Artificial Neural Network (ANN) base of past changes pattern. Artificial neural networks are able to approximate accurately complicated nonlinear input–output relationships. Like their physics-based numerical model counterparts, ANNs require training or calibration. After training, each application of the trained ANN is an estimation of a simple algebraic expression with known coefficients and is executed practically instantaneously. The ANN technique is flexible enough to accommodate additional constraints that may arise in the application.

    Results and discussion

     Result show that, urban expansions to per-urban and especially in green areas and orchards have been made major changes in urban green spaces. Evaluation of green space areas from 1355 to 1385 show that the green areas are decreased from 5916.53 to 4373.96 hectares. In 30 years periods, 1542 hectares of green areas destroyed and percent of green areas in Tabriz limit, reduced from 23.31 to 17.23. The land use changing in this period has been slowly. But, the green rate damages, in last decade is too fast and urban green areas in 1395 is 1709.02 hectares that contain 6.73 percent of city limit (25000 hectares city limit). In last decade,  2664 hectares in Tabriz green spaces, change to other land use and especially in 1385 to 1390 the rate of changing was faster and most of 50 percent of green areas in this period are demolished. In ANN modeling results, Tabriz will lose 1076 hectares of green areas from 1395 to 1410.

    Conclusions

     Therefore, the results indicate that the lack of proper planning of Tabriz's urban development in the last half century and especially in the past decade has caused irreparable damage to the green spaces of Tabriz, and will continue the trend in the coming years will threaten sustainable urban development and ecological balance of Tabriz city

    Keywords: Satellite images, urban green spaces, Sustainable development, Neural network, Tabriz
  • Rasoul Ghorbani, Mahdieh Tahooni *, Naser Ghaderi Pages 83-103
    Introduction

    The study of statistics related to Sardroud city shows the changes in population growth and the stages of growth and development of the city, so that the population during the 35-year period (1976-2011) has doubled and the area of ​​the city has doubled Increasing industries near Tabriz metropolis, which is located in Sardroud city, plays an important role in changes. As a result, population growth and industrial growth in Sardroud led to unplanned constructions and many changes in the spatial-physical structure of the city, the destruction of agricultural lands so that the area of ​​agricultural lands and gardens in 1999 was 6382180 square meters (65.2%) per year. 2011, 3252635 (26.35%) and the occurrence of various spatial-physical, environmental, social and economic problems in Sardroud city. Therefore, this study evaluated the spatial-physical effects of Tabriz metropolis on Sardroud city with the explanation that the factors affecting change The physical-spatial form of the city informs us of the logical understanding of these factors and of understanding the root of its problems. Each and every logical and correct confrontation with the problems as well as the thoughtful and thoughtful design of the future development of the city helped. Considering the above issues, the questions are as follows: - Has the proximity to Tabriz caused changes in the demographic structure of Sardroud city?- Has the spatial-physical developments of Sardroud city been affected by the expansion of industrial-workshop activities?

    Methodology

    In the present study, the method of analytical-comparative research is the type of applied-developmental research. Relevant information from comprehensive study studies and other relevant sources are obtained and classified according to the research needs. Then, the statistical indicators of the research are extracted from the mentioned data based on statistical relations. Quantitative models have been used to analyze the information, which are as follows: Study and analysis of demographic changes using population estimates based on statistics of fertility rates and mortality in Sardroud city through people software, calculation of economic activity diversity index using From the Gibbs-Martin model, comparing the position of different economic sectors of the city with respect to the province using the share change model and the Izard model and measuring the physical-spatial form of the city using quantitative relative entropy models, Gini coefficient, Muran, Gary, and Gary adjustment.

    Results and discussion

    In this study few models have been used. According to Bozhugarnia's diagram, the role of Sardroud city in 1996 was industrial, while in 2006-2011 it has taken on a commercial role. Comparing the position of different economic sectors of Sardroud city compared to East Azarbaijan province using the share change model, the growth rate of the total reference economy for 1996-2005 was equal to 1.6 and the economic structure of the province during this period has always been negative and declining. And the employment rate in agricultural sectors is -0.12, industry -0.04 and services are equal to 1.1; and by examining the changes in the economic sectors of Sardroud city based on the Izard model, the only service sector in the city compared to its similar coefficient in the level. The higher province is 252.6 against 137.3 percent, and the results obtained from the measurement of spatial-physical models indicate this. The form of the city is moving towards urban distribution and the values of the indicators in 1999 and 2011 are as follows: (relative entropy = 0.85, Gini = 0.35, Moran = 0.03, Gary = 0.05) And (relative entropy = 0.91, Gini = 0.36, Muran = 0.01, Gary = 1.99). Which has caused the destruction of agricultural lands and orchards, so that in the city of Sardroud in 1378 the share of orchards and agricultural lands was 65.2 and in 1390 it has reached 26.35%.

    Conclusion

    Considering that Sardroud city has the most impact from Tabriz metropolis, the development of urban infrastructure of Sardroud city should be considered in line with Tabriz metropolis so that the lack of infrastructure does not lead to marginal growth and inappropriate spatial-physical changes. And in areas where marginalization has taken place, urban renewal and rehabilitation measures and empowerment measures should be taken. Examining the changes in the economic sectors of Sardroud city in the field of industry, private sector investment should be activated and private sector investment in various economic fields should be invested in government economic policies, increasing the amount of investment from city credits, equipping and further development of Shahid Rajaei industrial town. It depends on the carpet weaving and carpet industry in the city.The spatial-physical structure of the city of Sardroud is a pattern of urban dispersion. Due to the need to guide the development of the city towards greater sustainability, the need to change it and the use of strategies for greater compression of the city is felt.- In order to prevent inappropriate urban-physical spatial development towards vulnerable and ecological areas, it is necessary to mention suggestions for improving urban development. Due to the poor growth of the city and its builders, it is necessary for the municipality to exercise strict supervision according to the existing laws and regulations, or for a specific organization or unit to do so under the supervision of the governorates or municipalities.

    Keywords: evaluation, physical-spatial form, Tabriz metropolis, Sardroud
  • Majid Rezai Banafsheh, Fatemeh Jafari Shendi *, Fereshteh Hossien Alipour Jazi Pages 105-123
    Introduction

    In this study, to analyze the effect blocking system on the precipitation during 1379 Sample rain, the weather maps of mean sea level pressure, geopotential height at 500 hpa level, wind components, moisture flux convergence and were analyzed. The data of daily precipitation were analyzed for meteorological stations by using Environmental approachto circulation during 1951 to 2013.The results suggest that three patterns have been effective in a rain storm and the establishment of Scutoff low in the Wast North West Iran and its associated trough displacement and ground accompaniment, which have provided the conditions for the creation of heavy rainfall.Because heavy rainfall is a type of atmospheric anomaly, many researchers are looking at how it occurs in abnormal weather patterns, including blocking patterns and other unusual synoptic patterns. Systems that are cut from the main west turn are called blocking systems (Habibi, 2006: 70). Researchers who have studied blocking systems such as Silman (2008) using the atmospheric-ocean output model, Kumar et al. (2008) using the air forecasting model, Timevios et al. (2010) using the Self Orgnizing Map (SOM), Caspar and Muller (2010) used the clustering method of hierarchy and Hang et al. and Yarahmadi and Marijanji (2011) by studying the low pressure system on the earth's surface, the atmosphere of the mid-atmosphere and the rise of cold weather And Gavidel (2014) have studied blocking system with the occurrence of blocking at 500, 600 and 700 hectopascal levels.

    Methodology

    In this study, High-level atmospheric data for rainfall analysis of days that have been rainy for more than 1 day include altitude geopolitical data of 500 HPL (meter potential), Uwind and Vwind (meters per second) and special humidity (grams per kilogram). These data are from 00:00, 06:00, 12:00 and 18:00 Greenwich Mean Time in the range of 0 to 80 degrees north and 0 to 120 degrees east with a spatial resolution of 2.5 × 2.5 degrees. It has been extracted from a database (NCEP / NCAR) affiliated with the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. First in the form of an environmental approach to circulation, Rainfall of more than one day in the spring during 62 years of statistics, which is 1379 days, was extracted. From these 1379 rainy days, based on the base index of 99th percentile, precipitation of more than 25.88 mm was selected. Therefore, 58 days of precipitation became the basis for the study of heavy spring rains. Because the purpose of the work is to check the blocking, the period of precipitation should be more than one day to determine the cause of heavy precipitation based on blocking or other systems. Then, using cluster analysis, the clustering of these 58 rainy days was studied. The results showed that three pressure patterns are effective in creating rainfall in Tabriz. For each of the patterns, a representative day with a correlation threshold of 95% was calculated and analyzed.

    Results and discussion

    At the time of pressure pattern 1, the Siberian high-pressure range stretched from 45 to 55 degrees north latitude to the west to the northern latitudes of Iran, and with low pressure on Turkey, provided thermal gradient. At the pressure pattern 2, a strong high-pressure nucleus with about 1032 HPL was formed in northern Mongolia. The tabs on this core, along with the high-pressure tabs of Siberia, have created extremely stressful conditions at the site of the low-pressure collision on northwestern Iran and Turkey. At the time of the establishment of the pressure pattern 3, tabs of the high-pressure system of the Scandinavian islands were drawn from the Black Sea to northwestern Iran. On the other hand, the whole of Iran is covered by the low pressure spread by Saudi Arabia. These conditions have led to an increase in the temperature and the provision of fronts and instability in Tabriz. In this way, the heavy rainfall that can be seen in the depths of the heart of this instability can be justified.

    Conclusion

    The results of synoptic analysis of pressure patterns related to blocking effective on the occurrence of heavy rainfall in Tabriz area indicate the formation of blocking phenomenon of high pressure type on the region. This system stops the movement of air circulation patterns, during which the patterns governing the atmosphere remain in place for several days. In the face of this system, the waves of the western winds are divided into two branches, north and south. This allows the waves to travel further north or south.

    Keywords: Heavy rain, Blocking, Environmental approach to circulation, Synoptic
  • Shahram Roustaie *, Davoud Mokhtari Kashki, Zahar Ashrafi Fini Pages 125-150
    Introduction

    Landslide is one of the most important and disastrous natural hazards which can bring many financial losses and heavy casualties worldwide every year.  Entropy means a quantity of disorder between causes, results or decisions taken in different situations, it can be highly effective particularly in geomorphological studies such as landslide, where existing data are confused with uncertainties.

    Material and Methods

    Topographic maps 1: 25000 scaled, geological map of Makran and Marzanabad scale map 1: 100000 and ASAR images from ENVISAT since 2003 till 2009 in the region were used as the main data in this model. Active landslide also detected in the basin. Then, 17 zones were selected via field visiting and Google earth software images. Also location of landslides recorded using GPS. Analyzing the data and providing the required maps were done using Arc Gis10 and SAGA. A total number of 13 effective parameters were selected based on condition of studied areas for next step. Then slide layer, slide direction, elevation, geology, land use, distance to fault, distance from the river and distance from the road obtained by Arc Gis10 analysis, vegetation layer (NDVI) measured by ENVI4.2 software and the layers of surface area ratio (ASR), topography index (TPI), Topographic Wetness Index (TWI) and slide length index (SLS ) were analyzed by SAGA software. After providing the information layers and importing the landslide locations, the properties of each slip extracted due to the mentioned layers and scoring was regarding to the role of each factor in the occurrence of slide. And the primary matrix was formed according to the entropy method. The decision matrix contains information which can be evaluated by entropy as a criterion. Then by calculating the entropy matrix and weight of 13 factors (WJ), the (HI) index will be obtained as landslide risk hazard

    Results and discussions

    At first due to the characteristics of the occurred landslide, each class was scored from the information layers which were obtained by examining the region after two field visits, study of aerial photographs and satellite imagery and identification of the affecting factors and their roles to create slip. Then the information layers used in the research were categorized and scored as a raster data and utilized as the main data in the formation of an entropy matrix for further analysis. To convert qualitative values into quantitative a bipolar scale is used. The bipolar interval scale is a general method for ranking quantitative and qualitative indexes. Measurement in this technique is based on a 10-point scale so that zero specifies the lowest possible value which is practically comprehensible and ten represents the maximum possible value of the intended index. The middle point is also the point of dividing the scale into favorable and unfavorable data.

    Conclusion

    Prioritizing the effective factors using the Shannon entropy index indicates that data layers such as slides direction, land use, elevation, slope, normalized vegetation index and the distance from the river had the greatest effect on the landslide occurrence in the area. And the topography, moisture index, geology, distance from fault and road, and the rest of the information layers had the least effect. Based on landslide hazard map of Taleghan watershed, very low to low risks regions are some areas in the northeast, central and southwest regions, while most of the studied areas have a moderate to very high risks. In general, site locations which could be at risk in the event of a landslide are limited to residential areas, roads, rivers, lakes and power lines. There are various land use in the region and Residential and demographic areas are at the top of the priority list. One the other hand there is Taleghan dam which can create a much greater potential risk if landslide happens at its location.

    Keywords: Landslide hazard, Shannon Entropy Index, GIS, Taleghan watershed
  • Shahrivar Rostaei, Shiva Alizadeh * Pages 151-171
    Introduction

    Spatial and regional inequalities are rooted in many issues, including; Implementing wrong policies by the center in the direction of zoning, Budget distribution and facilities, Improper administrative and political divisions and inconsistencies between different organizations to provide better services and perform assigned tasks, The concentration of population and facilities and immigration has increased in some places, which causes polarization and reduces facilities, Lack of optimal allocation of resources and credits and lack of proper regional policy in this field and finally these discrepancies and differences in different regions have eliminated sufficient integration and coherence for the evolution of development and it has highlighted the existing divisions and differences in all areas of development, and this trend has a definite and inevitable effect on the city, region and province. And it automatically transforms development policies, albeit correctly, and provides barriers to sustainable development. In this study, considering that in the province of West Azerbaijan, there is inequality and lack of optimal distribution of facilities and resources with the focus on facilities and services in the first dominant city, divergence and development gap between regions. It tries to collect various indicators and metrics in the fields of economics, social, physical, health-treatment and services to determine the extent to which the cities of West Azerbaijan province have convenience, facilities, etc.And with the help of common techniques for analyzing regional inequality to achieve balanced development, efforts are being made to determine which facilities and convenience are available in which cities, and in which cities these facilities and conveniences are scarce. The purpose of this article is to measure spatial justice in the distribution of public services among the cities of West Azerbaijan Province. To achieve the goal of the research, the main question is whether there is inequality between 17 cities of West Azerbaijan province in terms of spatial distribution of services? And we are trying to answer this question.

    Methodology

    The research method used in this paper is based on descriptive-analytical method. Various documentary-library methods have been used to gather information.In order to achieve the objectives of this research, it extracted raw data from the statistical yearbook of 1392 and then converted the raw data into an index, which finally added 41 indicators to the SPSS software to explain the measurement of spatial justice. And after analyzing 41 indicators, 10 factors have finally emerged. Population, educational, cultural, health, religious, medical services, services (telephone, electricity), education (for exceptional children), health (laboratory), socio-cultural, social and welfare are divided into demographic factors. In this article, the statistical population are 17 cities of West Azerbaijan. To analyze the data using the factor analysis method used, in factor analysis, it is argued that whenever a number of variables are correlated with the subject under study, they are also correlated with each other. If the correlation between the variables is low, they do not appear to be contributing factors.

    Results and discussion

    Educational agents for Boukan, Naqadeh and Urmia counties are ranked 1 to 3, respectively. And demographic factors for Urmia, Miandoab and Khoy counties are ranked 1 to 3, respectively. Health-cultural factor that Poldasht, Makovarumieh counties are ranked 1 to 3, respectively. Religious factor for Chaypareh, Miandoab and Shahin Dej counties are ranked 1-3 respectively. The ratio of registered religious delegations and the reliance on operational factors are at a high level, ie they are at a high level of significance, which is why this factor has been named as a religious factor. Therapeutic services for Mako, Chaldoran, Salmas counties are ranked 1 to 3, respectively. The ratios of active medical institutions, general practitioners, and rehabilitation centers are at a high level. This means that they are at a high level of significance, which is why this factor has been named as a factor in medical services. Service agent for Sardasht, Takab, Chaypareh counties are ranked 1 to 3, respectively. Educational agent for exceptional students for Piranshahr, Chaipareh and Oshnoyeh counties are ranked 1 to 3, respectively.Laboratory agents for Shahin Dej, Khoy and Chaldoran counties are ranked 1 to 3, respectively. The socio-cultural factors of Urmia, Oshnavieh and Boukan counties are ranked 1 to 3, respectively, and the social and welfare factors of Urmia, Chaypareh and Chaldoran counties are ranked 1 to 3, respectively.

    Conclusion

    The leveling results of the cities showed that the cities of West Azerbaijan province were in unbalanced conditions; And since this leveling has been done in relation to the population and the area, we find that there is a significant relationship between the population of the cities and the area and level of public services. According to these results, the cities of Urmia, Khoy, Naghadeh are ranked first to third, respectively, and the cities of Piranshahr, Takab, and Buchan are ranked the last, respectively.

    Keywords: Spatial Justice, public services, Inequality, Factor analysis
  • Ataallah Zarafshan *, MohammadReza Pourmohamadi, Esmail Nasiri, Seyyed Mahdi Moasa Kazemi Pages 173-199
    Introduction

    Changes in urbanization after the Industrial Revolution and the emergence of modernism in urban planning have destroyed the traditional elements and structures of cities, and functional zoning has replaced the organic system and functional diversity of cities and urban neighborhoods. Based on this division, a special space was provided for each of the city's functions so that their performance did not interfere with each other and did not disturb each other. Because cities are complex, complex, and multifunctional systems, limiting them to four functions and separating them through segregation and zoning has reduced the efficiency of cities and thus imposed many problems on cities. Following the criticism of this model, postmodern urbanism was introduced, in which a kind of nostalgia for the past, lost truth, and the search for the lost meaning can be seen. Postmodernists are interested in mixing urban lands to enliven urban neighborhoods, emphasizing pluralism. Today, land use - the immediate vicinity of homes, places of activity and services in buildings, neighborhoods of mixed use and urban areas - has become an important principle for the good urban shape in the 21st century. In Iran, with the beginning of developments in the second half of the twentieth century, the city went out of its traditional form and took a step towards renewal and expansion. In the meantime, the city of Tabriz, as one of the most important historical cities in the country, has not been deprived of these developments. In this city, in addition to the traditional textures that have undergone changes, new areas have also been built around the criteria of modern urban designs. Poverty zones have also been added to the city without any plans. At present, it seems inevitable to return to the traditional concept of a neighborhood in order to achieve a sustainable and sustainable human city. Given the importance of this issue, this research firstly wants to measure the level of land use mix in different residential areas of Tabriz in the current situation and secondly it wants to know whether mixing land use in urban areas can be an incentive for pedestrians be on top of most residents?

    Methodology

    The type of research in this paper is practical and its review method is analytical-comparative. The data collection method has been performed both in the library and in the field. To measure the mixing of land uses, first, urban land uses in the study areas were classified into six categories: 1) residential land uses, 2) commercial land uses, 3) administrative and law enforcement land uses, 4) Cultural uses and leisure, 5) General uses such as educational use, health use and 6) Other uses. Then, through the entropy index and the Atkinson index, the amount of mixing in each of the three tissue tissues was calculated. Also, 588 people were selected using the Cochran's formula and the necessary information was collected through a questionnaire to collect the level of desire to access each user on foot in the neighborhoods of the study areas. The instrument for measuring the questionnaire was a 7-item questionnaire that included a five-item Likert scale that assessed respondents' views on how much they wanted to access different uses on foot. Finally, the relationship between the degree of desire to access pedestrians and the level of mixing of users through Pearson correlation coefficient was evaluated.

    Results and discussion

    Based on the two main components of this research, namely pedestrian and mixed use, the neighborhoods of traditional, modern and unplanned textures in Tabriz metropolitan area were compared, the results of which revealed many differences between different neighborhoods. According to the calculation of the Entropy index and the Atkinson index, the average land use mixed in traditional texture neighborhoods is 0.673 and 0.588, respectively; This indicates that land use mixed is more common in traditional neighborhoods than in modern and unplanned textile neighborhoods. Of course, there is a large gap between the use of mixed among the neighborhoods of traditional textures. The difference between the Entropy Index and the Atkinson Index in calculating the mixing rate is that the Atkinson Index shows a gap between the higher availability and changes in the ranking of some neighborhoods. In examining the relationship between the tendency of pedestrians to access the required land uses and the level of mixing of land uses in different contexts, different results were obtained. The result was a very high correlation between the two variables of mixed use and the tendency to access pedestrians in traditional tissue neighborhoods, but this correlation is less common between modern tissue and unplanned neighborhoods. Thus, neighborhoods of traditional textures, despite their physical problems (such as wear and tear, lack of proper infrastructure), are still considered human-oriented neighborhoods where the human scale prevails.

    Conclusion

    The results of this study are in line with most of the research conducted in this field, with the exception of one case mentioned in the background of the research. Jun and Hur believe that despite the strengthening of the centralized sidewalk with increasing land use mixing, other variables such as the prevailing social and economic conditions, such as poverty and insecurity, could affect the relationship between land use mix and the central sidewalk. In general, it can be noted that this research can have a small but important contribution to the impact of physical elements on the social environment. However, according to the dimensions of the study area, its findings cannot be generalized. Because multiple and complex factors can affect the level of social behavior of neighborhood residents. Therefore, various variables such as social, economic, and political factors can be studied in relation to the effect of the physical environment on the social behavior of citizens

    Keywords: Human-oriented neighborhoods, Walkability, Mixed land use, Tabriz
  • MohammadHosein Gholizadeh *, Samira Hamidi Pages 197-217
    Introduction

    The consequences of climate change, changes in precipitation characters, including the amount, time and it’s duration are expected. Considering that the rain provides the water resources on the planet, change in regime, amount and duration of rainfall, caused a disturbance in the ecosystem of the Earth. It also affects the environmental conditions. Kurdistan province has an agricultural economy, thus variation in the rainfall duration can affect agricultural activity and other activities. To achieve success in the environmental management planning and efficient use of water resources over an area, it is essential to have information about rainfall variation.An important parameter of atmospher is precipitation.It has a lot of changes over the time and space. It is a basic element in the formation of the activities and prospects of the environment. Several studies have done by researchers on the properties of precipitation in the different regions of the world and also in Iran. In general, precipitation showed a negative trend in many regions (Gorgio,2002: 675). For example, an assessment of summer rainfall in eastern China showed a positive and a negative trend in the north (Gemmer et al, 2004: 39; Gong et al, 2004: 771).Annual rainfall has decreased in southern parts of Italy and the decrease in winter precipitation was larger (Marco et al, 2004: 907). An increase in summer rainfall, especially, in June and July has been reported in the Yangtze River basin (Tong et al, 2007: 1016). A decrease in winter rainfall and an increas for other seasons has been showed in Turkey (Kahya and Partal, 2007: 43). Evaluation of maximum daily rainfall at the global scale showed an increasing trend in rainfall (Sethwestra et al. 2013: 3904). Negative anomalies of precipitation was reported for the most stations in southern west Ethiopia (Girma et al. 2016: 3037). Based on Iran's annual rainfall, positive and negative trends in annual rainfall have been showed (Asgari and Rahimzadeh, 2006: 67). A decrease in rainfall, especially in the decade of 1995-2005 revealed in Iran using annual rainfall (Asakereh and Razmi,2012: 159). Assessment of changes in seasonal patterns of rainfall in Hamedan, showed that the beginning of the rain tend to the summer and the end of winter (Movahedi et al.,2013: 23). The results of precipitation extreme indices on Iran showed a positive trend in  the west and the south west and a negative trend in the north (Masoodian and Darand, 2013: 239).

    Methodology

    For this study, the daily precipitation obseravtions obtained from synoptic stations in Kurdistan province during 01.01.1989 to 31.12.2014 were anlayzed. A database with dimensions of 9526 * 8 was created. The time was set on rows (9526 days) and the rainfall was set on columns. Homogeneous and heterogeneous monthly rainfall data were assessed by apply cumulative deviations test and Vercelli maximum of likness. Mann-Kendall approach was implemented to extraxt the trend at the significant level of 90%, 95%, and 99 %. The significant differences in the mean of time series data before and after a mutation year by Mann-Whitney test were evaluated. The statistical calculations were done in the Matlab software.       

    Results and Discussion

    The results showed that during the study period, duration of rainfall for autumn, winter and spring, in most of the stations, has been reduced. The results indicated that the rainfall duration for summer showes an increases in rainfall.Which is in line with the result of many previous studies.The reduction in the rainfall in the rainy season and an increase in rainfall in summer were obsorved. As a result the duration rainfall also has been  changed. Annual rainfall has decreased in southern Italy and decrease in precipitation in winter is more (Marco et al, 2004: 907). Movahedi et al. 2013, By studying the seasonal rainfall in Hamadan, They found that the rainfall began to ward the winter and their end to the summer have changed.

    Conclusion

     Evaluation of duration time series of rainfall over different months of the year showed that in the rainy months of autumn, winter and spring rainfall duration has decreased. For example, Baneh station showed a decline of 0.3 day in December, and Marivan showed a decline of 0.6 day in January. The average rate of decline in rainfall duration in March for the Qorveh station was 0.4 day per decade. In addition, a decline in spring rainfall duration was observed as well. Bijar station showed a decline of 0.2 day in May. However the rainfall duration in summer showed an increase. For example, Zarinah station obtained an increase of 0.2 day per decade in August.

    Keywords: Trend, Precipitation duration, Entropy, Kurdistan province
  • Atefeh Shahmohammadi, Ali Bayat *, Saeed Mashhadizadeh Maleki Pages 201-219
    Introduction

     Today, the unfavorable weather conditions are one of the critical problems in the world's major cities, which have many harms to humans and the environment. Nitrogen monoxide and nitrogen dioxide are important air pollutants. Nitrogen dioxide is a reddish-brown gas with a pungent odor. The most important human resources producing this pollutant are car exhaust and fixed sources such as fossil fuels, power plants, incinerators, and home heating appliances. In addition to human resources, nitrogen oxides are also produced by bacteria, volcanoes, and lightning. The city of Tabriz is one of the metropolises of Iran, and the increase in the population of the city, motor vehicles, consumption of fossil fuels, industrial activities, and improper use of heating devices and the existence of industrial factories has increased energy consumption in this city and many problems. It has created an environment for the residents of this city. The purpose of this paper is to study the trend of nitrogen dioxide as an indicator of air pollution from OMI data using linear fit after eliminating significant rotation periods on the time series of the average monthly nitrogen dioxide for the city of Tabriz.

    Methodology

     In this study, the nitrogen dioxide data measured by the OMI satellite sensor and the wind data, the surface temperature and the horizontal visibility measured with the synoptic station during the years 2004 to 2016, contaminated with airborne nitrogen dioxide emissions in Tabriz city is being investigated. The seasonal mean and nitrogen dioxide, temperature, wind, and horizontal visibility, as well as the correlation between nitrogen dioxide and meteorological data, have been investigated to better understand the changes in air pollution. To understand the properties and behavior of the functions, they can be examined in frequency space. Least square spectral analysis can be used to investigate non-distant time series. Statistical tests can also be performed until the periodic intervals obtained from the spectral analysis are statistically validated. After the formation of the time series, the average monthly nitrogen dioxide level between the 2004 to 2016 intervals was observed using spectral analysis of least squares of periods of four, six, and twelve months, which were also statistically significant. To calculate the nitrogen dioxide trend, significant components are eliminated from the time series. After eliminating the significant components of the four, six, and twelve months of the nitrogen dioxide time series, the trend is calculated using linear fit on the remaining time series.

    Results and discussion

     The results showed that the highest amount of nitrogen dioxide occurs in cold season and the lowest amount in hot seasons. The average nitrogen dioxide content in the spring, summer, autumn and winter seasons was equal to 2.13, 1.90 ×, 3.88 × and 5.36 × molecules per cm2 and its mean value was calculated at 2.84 × molecules per centimeter square. Also, the highest amount of standard deviation of nitrogen dioxide occurs in winter, 10.4  and its lowest value in summer, 0.97 The study of temporal, wind, and horizontal visibility of Tabriz city for the measurement period 2004 to 2016 shows that nitrogen dioxide and temperature have a relationship. So that nitrogen dioxide has the highest amount in the early and the late months of the year when it is cold, and vice versa. 96 percent of the winds of the city of Tabriz have a speed of less than 0.5 meters per second, so called quiet winds and the prevailing winds of the eastern and northeastern cities. The correlation coefficient of nitrogen dioxide with wind and temperature was -0.49 and -0.32, respectively, indicating a greater significance of wind in the variation of this pollutant. One of the simplest ways to check the air quality is horizontal visibility. The correlation coefficient of nitrogen dioxide with horizontal visibility for Tabriz city is -0.09 and its value has not been significantly different during the year. The amount of nitrogen dioxide in each year for Tabriz was 1.05 × molecules per cm2.

    Conclusion

     Paying attention to the quality of life and environmental issues in the city of Tabriz is very important due to population growth and increasing urban life.  Air pollution caused by nitrogen dioxide in the cold seasons of the year was mostly due to temperature inversion. As a result, what plays a significant role in air pollution in this city is the increase in urbanization, the development of factories, and the excessive use of fossil fuels, power plants, and motor vehicles. Therefore, adequate measures must be taken to reduce air pollution in order to maintain the health of citizens and the environment. One of the factors reducing air pollution is green space, and the city of Tabriz does not have a great green space, so the lack of green space in this area is strongly felt and is very small compared to international standards.

    Keywords: Nitrogen dioxide, Least square spectral analysis, OMI Sensor, Wind, Surface temperature, Horizontal Visibility, Tabriz
  • Negin Aali *, Masoome Rajabi, MirAsadolah Hejazi, Shahram Roostaei Pages 221-243
    Introduction

    Natural parameters are the main and determining factors in the physical development of mountainous cities. One of the mountainous cities of Iran, which has physically developed due to these parameters, is the city of Marivan. Marivan is located in the west of Kurdistan province, near the western borders of the country, at a distance of 16 km from Iraq, between 25 degrees and 21 minutes to 35 degrees and 48 minutes north latitude and 45 degrees and 58 minutes to 46 degrees and 45 minutes east longitude. According to the last population and housing census conducted in 2016, it has a population of 151188. The city is located at the starting point of the Marivan-Esfandeghe geological region and is located in the geological-morphological structure of the young Zagros. Therefore, identifying and evaluating the factors influencing the physical development of this city is really important. To do this, the characteristics of elevation, slope and direction of slope, fault, focal points of earthquake occurrence, main and secondary waterways have been used.With regard to its location in northwestern Iran after the eight-year Iran-Iraq war, the study city has experienced significant physical growth and development due to its unique and pristine vital and natural location, which led to the development of this city. Regardless of geological constraints. At present, the city has the potential to benefit from high potentials in the fields of natural and cultural tourism, including (Zarivar Natural Lake, Bashmakh Regional Area, and Border Market, Bilo Plain, Garan Dam, Oramanat and Bazaar for supplying foreign supplies and products. It has become one of the dynamic and active economic-tourism hubs in the west of the country and there is a growing growth and development in the city; therefore, it is inevitable to pay attention to geomorphological factors and determine optimal directions for the development of this city.

    Methodology

    According to the National Physical Plan of Region 5, the city is in a relatively high risk of earthquakes, and with respect to available and cited maps, there are 7 sub-faults in the northern part of Marivan and 2 main faults in the western part of the city. For this reason, the physical development of the city is subject to certain restrictions. Marivan is also in a relatively high risk of earthquakes in terms of location in relation to natural hazards.It is an applied research and the method of work is descriptive-analytical and also the fuzzy logic model has been used to evaluate and model suitable areas for development so that each layer is fuzzy according to fuzzy membership functions in GIS environment. And then multiplication and addition operations and different values of fuzzy gamma have been performed on these layers. After overlapping and multiplying the fuzzy layers, a zoning map of the appropriate development route of the city was prepared and divided into 5 classes including completely suitable, relatively appropriate, appropriate, inappropriate and completely inappropriate for the physical development of the city.In the study, library methods, documentary and field studies have been used to collect the desired information and data. To evaluate the optimal development of urban lands, slope indicators, slope direction, fault zoning, main and secondary waterways, erosion, earthquake-prone points in and around the area have been used. The fuzzy and hierarchical analysis process (AHP) was used.

    Results and discussion

    In order to evaluate and weigh the information layers and to determine and score the impact factor of geomorphological indicators affecting urban development while extracting and reviewing the criteria examined in various valid researches and articles, scientific opinions and views of ten experts and specialists were counted and monitored. In order to determine the importance of each of the studied indicators on the location and physical development of Marivan city, the opinions and views of the experts were given based on the superiority of one factor over another and based on expert judgment, scores between 1 and 9 were given. The equivalence of expert scores based on fuzzy method was done by the authors of the article with the help of AHP & FUZZY software.Since 1996, due to the increasing growth and development of the city and the formation of informal settlements, the development of the city has taken place without considering geomorphological considerations, and this has caused the spatial-physical development of Marivan in the northern parts near the existing faults. The development of the city has taken place at relatively high risk.

    Conclusion

    Summarizing the research, it has been determined that the southern lands of this city have less proportion to the development of the city due to its proximity to Zarivar Lake and its location along the main and secondary waterways and its proximity to the earthquake centers. And to some extent, the East enjoys a higher level of development.

    Keywords: Geomorphologic factors, Fuzzy logic, Location, urban development, Marivan
  • Mahdi Abdoalahzadeh*, MohammadRahim Rahnoma, Mohammad Ajzae Shokohi Pages 245-271
    Introduction

    Having knowledge about spatial form of city is one of the important factors affecting the success rate of urban planners and practitioners, and it helps improving urban environment. In the present research, we are trying to evaluate spatial – physical growth pattern of Tabriz metropolis using quantitative methods.

    Methodology

     The current research is descriptive – analytical and practical approach in terms of nature and method, so that, using survey, documentary and library studies, data were firstly gathered and studied, and then physical – spatial form of Tabriz city growth was calculated using quantitative methods (metropolis size, density, aggregation degree and balanced distribution).

    Results and Discussion

    The results of the research show that Tabriz metropolis is facing an imbalanced growth pattern.

    Conclusion

    lack of balance was created between the increase of city area and population growth which caused the city to be formed greater than what it is determined to be.

    Keywords: Aggregation degree, Balanced distribution, Spatial growth, Tabriz metropolis
  • Somayeh Alipour, Abolfazl Meshkini *, Mohsen Ahadnejad Roshti Pages 273-295
    Introduction

    Housing is not just a shelter, but a set of physical elements and human values for life. Housing and shelter are the cornerstone of building human communities because they are the main building blocks of cities. The concept of suitable housing should be sought not only in physical and physical dimensions, but also in terms of its biological, cultural, social, security and economic needs. The issue of housing is one of the challenges and problems that urbanization has long been facing and is not only as a basic human need, or because of its strong link with other aspects of life but also due to its complexity and multifaceted nature, the center of attention is a variety of scientific disciplines. After food and clothing, housing is the third most important need of the community, which is important for the preservation of the individual and society. It is one of the most important human needs in the stage of responding to the basic needs of society and one of the most essential needs of a person and somehow one of the rights The primary is the human being that is planning to meet this basic need of citizens from the tasks that governments have put in place. Housing relative to other goods due to characteristics such as the inalienability of being capital, durable, costly and immovable cannot be a major factor in inequality and yet social solidarity. Housing ownership is a clear indication of the improvement of living standards.

    Methodology

    The type of research, applied-development, and according to the research objectives, is the analytical -descriptive nature. The statistical population of the research is Karaj city and its 120 neighborhoods. Data collection is also done by reviewing the available resources and articles and the detailed information of the Population and Housing Census of the Statistics Center, especially the data of the housing sector in 2011. Quantitative and qualitative indicators of housing in Karaj city were extracted from raw data and then comparative comparisons were made with global standard indicators (Hebiate). Integrated indexes were also obtained from the data and analyzed in the process of work. Data analysis and analysis has also been performed using a multi-criteria decision making model to select or prioritize. In this process, the multi-criteria decision making models and SANNA-based system for prioritizing or ranking 120 neighborhoods based on quantitative indices And a qualitative analysis that has been adapted to the status of the study area. A decision with multiple criteria for MCDM is a topic that addresses decision-making processes in the presence of different and sometimes contradictory criteria. Despite the widespread use of those common concepts, there are all issues. Each issue can have multiple goals or multiple criteria. Criteria may conflict with each other. Different goals and criteria may also vary in measuring scales. This method is capable of handling discrete criteria of both quantitative and qualitative in nature and provides complete ordering of the alternatives.

    Results and discussion

    In this part of the study, the findings are presented, as well as their evaluation and evaluation. The findings of the research on housing information in 120 neighborhoods of Karaj with qualitative and quantitative indicators of the global governor and in line with the study area were carried out by survey of population and housing census statistics for 2011 in Karaj. Indicators of the indicators include: household size, population density in residential unit, number of household densities in residential unit, average density of room in residential unit, density in room, average density of room in unit, average room of each household and area. Qualitative indicators such as property type, low housing, leasing, ownership, infrastructure, facilities, facilities, and type of building structure. After selecting the indicators, they are ranked in order of importance and using the opinions of the experts in the field of housing and the importance of each of the following criteria is determined according to the subject of the research. In the following, using a ranking model that has the ability to integrate a large number of criteria with each other, the model used is the ELECTRE III model, one of the MCDM models based on SANNA software.

    Conclusion

    The analysis and analysis of the findings with the model process and the ranking of 120 neighborhoods finally showed that the neighborhood 4 of the 5th zone is ranked first in terms of quantitative and qualitative indicators. In the next ranking, the neighborhood 5 is from the 5th district and the third rank 2 is the 2nd area. Which ranked first to third. At the end of the ranking, neighborhood 2 is also from area 11. In a general conclusion, it can be said that in the ranking of each neighborhoods and the regional integration of the district 5 in the first place and the first and second regions with a small difference in the next rank in terms of quantitative and qualitative indicators. Also, the findings show that there is a significant difference between neighborhoods of Karaj city and neighborhoods in a region, which indicates that the neighborhoods with appropriate and inappropriate analgesics are in line with each other in terms of the indicators. Since Karaj is a migratory metropolis and is growing every day without planning, we are witnessing the setting up of weedy or weaved textiles of very low quality near the neighborhoods with the principles of engineering construction, which requires serious attention to this area. And balancing between neighborhoods. In this regard, suggestions are made: Residential land supply with respect to urban plans, support for the restoration of worn-out housing, the application of decentralization policies and the prevention of inadequate growth and preparation policies as a fundamental approach and in providing housing for different classes. People, adopting optimal technologies for professional construction, etc., which can be a good way to get out of housing problems.

    Keywords: Quantitative, qualitative indicators, neighborhood, Karaj, MCDM models, ELECTRE III model
  • Sakineh Kadkhodaei *, Saeed Jahanbakhsh Asl, Valizadeh Kamran Khalil Pages 319-337
    Introuduction

    Snow reserves of mountain areas considered as one of the most important water resources of country which accurately recognition of quantity of these resources are essential due to the increasing value of freshwater and optimal utilization of resources. Sabalan mountain are one of the important basins of country that the water from melting snow which has fallen in winter, provide water for agriculture and surrounding areas drinking in spring and summer.  In this study for simulations runoff from snowmelt in the Sahzab catchment, (of sub-basin in the southern part of Sabalan) from mod 10a2 product and changes in snow cover of 2010-2011, using SRM model(based on degree-day method), has conducted. Results suggest during the statistical period, the greatest and lowest amounts of snow coverage are for February and may, respectively.

    Methodology

     The Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) as the most frequently used model in model in prognosticating and simulating runoff in mountainous basins using snow covered areas as an input, was employed in current study to simulate the runoff produced from snowmelt. The S factor (snow cover area) was extracted using 8 day images of MODIS sensor (combining bands number 6 and 4), NDSI index (with the necessary thresholds) ENVI and GIS software. In order to achieve the desired objectives, ground data such as temperature , rainfall and debit were also used.

    Results and discussion

    Evaluation of SRM model using correlation coefficient and volume subtracting indicator are 81 and 2/3 percent, respectively. R-value indicator acceptability depends on the quality of data and may not be acceptable even by having enough data of 85% value but in a catchment with inappropriate and low data, lower value also is acceptable. With respect to shortage of meteorological and terrestrial data in Sahzab catchment, the SRM results of this study showed acceptable simulations for runoff simulation that was caused by snow melting in sahzab catchment.

    Conclusion

    Using of hydrological models and satellite images combined with powerful ground-based data can be used as a tool for planning and management of water resources, particularly in the area where snow melting is one of the factors leading to runoff. If studies on snowcovered area, snowmelt and its effects are considered on small scale such as riverside tributaries extraction of snow cover maps for each of the catchment basins, careful planning can be done for each region which will be in line with sustainable development.

  • Sedighe Kiani Salmai *, Saeed Abbasian Pages 339-367
    Introduction

    In rural areas, tourism as one of the most popular forms of tourism can, lead to economic growth and the diversification of rural activities, on the other hand, by attracting human resource surpluses, to create employment and generate income for villagers, thus giving them an opportunity to develop All-round. In recent years and in line with tourism development in rural districts, study of the effect and action of rural tourism has been a productive domain for interdisciplinary research. One of the subjects is investigating the tourism effects on empowerment of rural societies. Accordingly, aim of the study is to investigate the role and the effect of rural tourism on empowering of local society in social, cultural and economic aspects in villages of central district of Natanz.

    Methodology

     The study is an applied research and from the point of view of the method and nature, it is a descriptive-analytic one. The method of collecting the data was a combination of library and field methods. Data collecting tool is a researcher made questionnaire including 85 general and special questions. Validity of the tool is face validity and was confirmed by experts and also was structural by means of factor analysis and its reliability was set by Cronbach’s Alpha about 0.854. Statistical population of the study were the rural inhabitants of central district of Natanz (N=4046). The sample size was 354 people according to Morgan table. Statistical analyses were conducted by SPSS software, Binominal tests, chi-square, Mann-Whitney, Wilcoxon, T student, Fisher, Manova, Anova, factor analysis and cluster analysis. The Maps was made by ArcGIS software.

    Results and discussion

     The results show that the average of general empowerment in tourism villages with amount of 3.34 is in a higher place than non-tourism villages with general empowerment average of 3.15. The results of T-test, according to the average amounts of the sample 3.48 and 3.34 for cultural empowerment and social empowerment respectively and high amounts of T student 11.574 and 8.280 which were the result in zero for the assumed significant level of zero, confirm the effect of tourism on cultural and social empowerment in level of 0.05. Level of significant of 0.155 for tourism effect on economic empowerment aspect, has denied the effect of tourism on this aspect. Also, the statistical amount of empowerment comparison in Fisher test is 5.967 with freedom degrees of 1 and 298 in form of triple aspects among tourism and non-tourism villages. Hence, the difference between general empowerment among tourism and non-tourism villages is significant. Zero amounts of significant level for Wilcoxon tests among empowerment aspects show that these aspects have significant differences two by two. Consequently, cultural empowerment with average of 3.484 is in the highest level and economic empowerment with average of 2.98 is in the lowest level. The results of clustering the variables demonstrate that cultural and social aspects are closer to each other based on conceptual theme.

    Conclusion

    According to the findings, empowerment status is better in tourist villages. In general, cultural empowerment is most and economic empowerment is the least. It seems that the situation with regard to economic empowerment seems not to be favorable; especially the investment empowerment has a bad situation. In fact, the presence of the tourist, although beneficial in terms of employment and income, was not as effective in the field of investment (as a more radical variable).The lack of meaningful economic effects of tourism on the part of the local community is due to the fact that the villagers expected to receive direct and tangible income from tourism and less attention to its multiplier effects. In any case, social and cultural empowerment in both types of villages is at a higher level than economic empowerment.According to the results of the research, setting up and providing legal support for private sector investment in tourism development in the studied villages, Development of basic skills for employment in the tourism sector in cooperation with the technical and vocational organization with the aim of creating job opportunities and income generation, Training on entrepreneurial skills with a native-oriented approach, Teaching social and communication skills to communicate with tourists and influential institutions in tourism, Recognizing and introducing the attractions of rural tourism using mass media, social networks, Cyberspace and interaction with tourism agencies, supporting cultural and local patterns and values as the main capital for tourism development, Increasing the knowledge and knowledge about tourism and holding local and regional ceremonies and celebrations with a tourist attraction approach can deepen the tourism impacts of the study in the study area and lead to rural development.

    Keywords: cultural empowerment, economic empowerment, social empowerment, local society, central district of Natanz
  • Shabnam Mahmoudi *, Davod Mokhtari, MohamadHossein Rezai Moghadam, Abbas Moradi Pages 369-390
    Introduction

    Erosion involves the retreat or advancement of the coastline, is the one of the recent problems of communities along the coast and the existing infrastructure located near the estuary system. Environmentally, coastal areas are of great importance and value due to their sensitive and productive ecosystems. Short-term or long-term coastline changes are important in the situation and geometry of coastlines and coastal management. Awareness of coastline behavior helps to manage beaches when designing and constructing coastal facilities and determining the safe margin of the coast. This article tries to modeling the changes in the coastline of East and West Bandar jask(southern Iran) in a timespan, a step towards coastal management for the planning and operation of facilities of Jask Port, which can be follow the future development of the area.

     Methodology

    The study area is part of the coast of Jask city located in Jask county in southern Iran. For this purpose, the extent of coastline changes to determine the boundary line between land and water was examined. To be more precise, spectral operators were used in the Arc map environment and Landsat satellite imagery; the next step was to polygonize the shoreline according to the fixed landline on land. In addition, Google Earth satellite imagery was used to examine and mark some case-by-case changes, such as cape changes in the western part of the port of Jask and so on.

     Results and Discussion

    The dynamics of coastlines and their variability (affected by lithology and wave activity), the shape of coastlines and their effect on erosion and location of coastal sediments, resources and location of sediment accumulation and hydrodynamics of areas close to coastlines, the intensity of seasonal winds and its role in transmission Sediment transfer and erosion mechanisms, and ultimately, human activities, are among the factors influencing coastline changes. The shape of the shores was examined using the Hausdorff-Pesikovtch method. Accordingly, the rate of change in the area of polygons on the east coast (progress) is higher than on the west coast (retrograde). The reason for the progress on the East Coast could be the construction of new piers, tidal performance, the shape of the beach and how it is positioned against the waves. Overall, Oman's beaches are uplifted, which could be the reason for the retrograde; however, the drying up of the coast in order to build piers and breakwaters has led to the advance of the coast.

     conclusion

    Prove the existence of progress on the east coast due to the construction of three new piers (after 2006) and the presence of retrograde on the west coast due to the existing natural mechanisms of the region such as the uplift of Oman coast, is the most important finding of this study. The shape of the beach and the way it escapes from the waves due to the prevailing wind direction (from the southeast) on the east coast has intensified the effect of the human factor.

    Keywords: Coastline changes, Spectral operators, remote sensing, Bandar Jask, Southern Iran
  • Amer Nikpour *, Morteza Rezazadeh, Fatemeh Allahgholitabar Nesheli Pages 391-418
    Introduction

    One of the most important urban problems is the formation of a phenomenon called urban poverty. Urban poverty is a multidimensional phenomenon, and urban dwellers suffer from many disadvantages, including lack of access to employment opportunities, housing and infrastructure, lack of social security, and access to personal health, education, and security, urban poverty is not limited to these characteristics and refers to unstable conditions, which can lead to vulnerabilities and disability. Living in impoverished cities means an economy that is produced to survive. Urban poverty is the transmission of a huge economic shock that usually occurs through the labor market and job loss. Poverty scope should be defined as the spatial representation of poverty in urban areas. Today, in trying to achieve human development, measuring and determining urban poverty is an issue that is pursued in policy-making and human development management in many countries, and this requires the adoption of scientific methods, especially in the geographical determination of urban slums and it’s through the use of statistical methods and the definition of appropriate indexes to determine the different dimensions of urban poverty.Therefore, in this study, while trying to define urban poverty and its main dimensions, we try to obtain an accurate knowledge of the geographical features of urban poverty and its dimensions in the study area.

    Methodology

    The present type of research is applied and in compiling this research, documentary method, library study to collect existing views, theories and experiences and descriptive-analytical method to study the spatial pattern of poverty in Babol have been used. The data used from the statistical blocks of 1390 were obtained from the Statistics Center of Iran. GIS software has been used to extract and classify the data of this research. In this study, 25 indexes related to urban poverty have been used in two levels of neighborhoods and urban blocks. The indexes used in this study are examined in three economic, social and physical dimensions. In order to identify poverty zones, the desired indexes were first calculated at the level of statistical blocks. Then, all statistical blocks were examined according to the desired field through Hot Spot Analysis tool from Spatial Statistics Tools and based on it, spatial analysis of urban poverty indexes was performed on the scale of statistical blocks.

    Results and discussion

    Spatial analysis of urban poverty:The economic dimension of poverty .The results of spatial analysis showed that the spatial distribution of the city did not have a specific order. The central part of the city, especially neighborhoods 6, 16 and the western part of the city (neighborhood 15) are in the most favorable conditions in terms of economic welfare. In contrast, the north-west and southeast of the city suffer from widespread poverty. The findings also show that more than 23% of the city's population is in relative poverty and 1.7% is in absolute poverty, with a population of 19,5880 in 19.4% of the city's area. In general, the population living in poor economic conditions and experiencing some form of poverty is slightly higher than those in relative or absolute welfare.The social dimension of poverty The findings show that more than 36 percent of the city's area is socially poor and relatively poor, accounting for about 29.9 percent of the city's population. Spatially, this amount of population often resides on the northeastern, southern and southwestern margins of Babol. Like the economic dimension of poverty, in the social dimension, the central districts of the city are in a better position than in other areas; In contrast, neighborhoods No. 22, 19, 18 and 5 (Map No. 3) are among the neighborhoods with high poverty rates.The physical dimension of poverty.The results showed that the southern and northeastern margins of the city, such as economic and social dimensions, are in unfavorable conditions. In terms of spatial dominance, neighborhoods 19, 18 and 11 are in poor physical condition. In contrast, neighborhoods 6, 8, 16 and 13, which are located in the central part of the city, are in relatively good condition. On a city scale, more than 35 percent of the city's population lives in areas of the city that have relative or absolute physical poverty. This population lives in 45.4% of the city's area. The final pattern of urban poverty.The final model of poverty to identify the main areas of poverty in the city of Babol is the result of spatial integration of 25 indexes in the three dimensions of economic, social and physical. The results showed that small areas of poverty can be seen in the northern and northwestern areas of the city, but the main areas of poverty can be seen in the northeastern, southeastern and western areas. Poverty in the city of Babol has a population of 47,140, ​​or 35.2% of the total population. In terms of area, these areas cover more than 43% of the total area of ​​the city. In contrast, most of the city's central areas, such as neighborhoods 6, 8, and 16, are in good economic, social, and physical condition. It should be noted that only 28.3% of the city's population and 21.34% of the city's area are in good condition, which indicates that most of the city's space is facing many problems in various economic, social and physical fields.

    Conclusion

    The complexity of urban systems and the relationships and interactions between them lead to the formation of various phenomena in urban and metropolitan areas. Spatial inequality is one of these urban phenomena, examples of which are urban poverty. This article identifies the spatial pattern of different dimensions of poverty in the city of Babol. The results of spatial analysis of urban poverty indexes in the city of Babol showed most of the city of Babol is facing many problems in various economic, social and physical fields.

    Keywords: Spatial pattern, Zoning, Dimensions of poverty, Urban poverty, Babol