فصلنامه مطالعات بنیادین و کاربردی جهان اسلام
پیاپی 2 (زمستان 1398)

 The present era in the Muslim world can be called the age of the confrontation of two major currents "secularism" and "Salafism." Due to a lack of a local political system based on religious foundations and in accordance with the conditions, needs and necessities of the present era, Muslim countries, especially the active elite groups, young people and political and social strata have joined two main currents to legitimize their political systems. They voice their demands through the two currents of extreme Salafism which includes diverse political, religious, social and cultural spectrum, and the west-oriented extreme perspective that manifests in the form of secularism and laicism models that has influenced diverse spectra including the youth, the educated, women etc. The present paper mainly deals with explaining religious democracy as a fundamental legal solution for the accomplishment of the religious and worldly objectives of Islamic countries.

 Using the a descriptive-analytic method, the present paper aims to answer the question as to what are the capacities of the "religious democracy" model and how does it carries out its mission.
The research hypothesis is that, considering the requirements of the Muslim world   and the authentic Islamic approaches, none of these two currents are suitable or ideal solutions, because on the other hand, combining these two political currents while preserving their core elements is not possible, and on the other hand, full unconditional acceptance of each of these currents has led to a permanent confrontation with the opposing current. and ultimately results in war, bloodshed, and the threat to peace and global and regional security.

 Based on the principles governing religious democracy, participation of people in    social affairs and management of society is a rare value in human societies. According to these principles, God's rule will only be realized if people also accept such a rule. The relationship between government and people in religious democracy pushes the rulers towards a sincere attitude towards the value of people's participation. They do not regard the interference of the people as obstructive, but consider it as recommended in religious teachings. In religious democracy, the presence and participation of people continues after the formation of the government. After voting for the government, they continue to play an active role in the governance of the country and do not have to just obey the orders of the leaders. With close attention to different Quranic, traditional and rational references, we find that the people's demands have a major role not only in the establishment of the government, but also in its survival and continuity. In religious democracy, people's vote, their participation and their presence in different areas are respected and two types of majority votes are valid: one in execution and practice, and the other in the recognition of the divine law presented by religion. Intellectuals believe in the priority of the majority vote, and the divine law does not reject this foundation of intellectuals.

Since its advent, the Muslim world has been facing numerous political currents. The formation of these currents has largely been due to a deviation from the original Islam and attention to the elements of ethnicity, nationality and capriciousness among Muslims, and the penetration of imported and borrowed thoughts in their united ranks. In the present age, the current and common models among Islamic countries, especially in the field of governance and political system are not based on the pure Islamic thoughts. Rather, they are influenced either by the Western world model or the deviant Takfiri thoughts. The dominant political-social currents in the Muslim world, especially after the Arab Spring Movement (Islamic Awakening) is divided into two major currents: extreme fundamentalist current, including Salafi and Takfiri groups with vast religious, political and social spectra and the extreme west-oriented secularism covering vast cultural, political, social spectra, especially the youth and women.Facing these two extreme currents is the authentic Islamic current (religious democracy), which holds that the revivalism in Muslim world and protecting the dignity, honor, and independence, religious Brotherhood and Islamic unity are possible through reforms which are based on the inherent and authentic Islamic foundations. The legal solution is considering both prevailing currents, interpreting and revising their pillars and combining their congruent elements, and ultimately reaching a result that will be different from both currents. Islam does not acknowledge democracy as the main pillar of political thought, but accepts many of its elements, such as freedom, equality, the right of people to determine their destiny, the and rule of law; it implements the strategies of democracy, such as autonomy of forces, constitution, elections, civil institutions, etc. and is different from any of the extreme currents. This process eventually leads to religious democracy, which is based on the political pillars and issues such as freedom and equality based on Islamic justice and national sovereignty within the framework of the Council and the Islamic Parliament, and uses mechanisms of democracy such as elections with the characteristics of Islamic allegiance and parties in the form of. In religious democracy, the rule of law has sanctity because of the divinity of Islamic commandments.

Beginning in the twentieth century and up to now, Islam has been viewed by both state and non-state actors as an increasingly important political force, whether in the sense of reinforcing alternative revolutionary models, rejecting current government rule, reforming social activities, women's rights, or reforming social rights, Phobia Islam (which is pursued by Western powers for the purpose of executing a strategy of disorder in the Islamic world as well as for creating panic in the public opinion of the world) in the form of kidnapping of foreigners, mistreatment of religious minorities or suicide bombings Is. While Islam has always endorsed politics as a clergyman, many writers have argued that in the twentieth century, the rise of Islam as a widespread political force to change, reform and even revolutionize the practice of responding to Westernization. Colonialism, the struggle for independence, as well as the establishment of a nation-state of our own have preceded the colonial period. The rooting of geopolitical crises requires investigating the historical course of crisis development and identifying factors influencing the occurrence of geopolitical crises, analyzing the role of governments and inter-regional political actors, recognizing the role of governments and interregional interfering actors, identifying and examining the role of religious, political and cultural elites, Is social. Summing up the views of the authors, it is believed that the crises of the Islamic world have at least two sources, both domestic and foreign. Thus, within the Muslim world and among Muslims, a complete lack of understanding of Islamic principles and teachings on the one hand and distortion of religion and instrumental use of religious concepts and principles by some intellectuals and power on the other hand lead to the creation of ideological beliefs and attitudes. There was a change in the Islamic world, and the Muslims became a sect and a group accordingly. This situation came to a critical point when dogmatism, self-centeredness among the followers of each sect was created and they considered themselves absolute rights and accused the followers of other groups of exaggeration. Over time, this ideological challenge was not only resolved but also intensified by the intervention of other actors, especially what is termed the "geopolitical competition of Islam and the West". There is also a divergence of opinion and religious-religious conflict not only among the Muslim people but also in the current conditions of the Muslim world, extending to political levels at the local, national, and regional scales. At the grassroots level, we see the clash of political groups and parties with ideological origins, and nationally, unfortunately, sectarian strife of religious and ethnic origin is mounting in the Muslim world, and at the most important level in terms of acting power, Muslim states and governments. These conflicts are at their highest levels, to the detriment of Muslim nations and nations, and to the benefit of non-Muslims. The present research was pursued to achieve the main objective of the research, which is to rank the influential components and indicators in the geopolitical crises of the Islamic world by using a mixed research method, a combination of two working methods. And verbal interviews with experts, study of the theoretical literature of research, interviews and obtaining point of view were done to explore the factors and then to describe the variables in order to identify the dimensions, components and related indicators in the model. Data analysis was done using Delphi method. Finally, the theoretical framework was elaborated and quantified (by designing a questionnaire and calculating the validity and reliability of data collection). Therefore, the research approach was mixed in terms of the type of data collected and in terms of development-purpose. Firstly, by using descriptive analysis, The collected data were summarized and categorized by descriptive statistics indices that were analyzed by mean, fashion, median, variance. Then, using inferential analysis method, correlation relations between components and indices were extracted and standardized by SPSS software. Finally, the researchers conclude that the Muslim world in the West Asian region is experiencing various geopolitical crises, such as the emergence of Takfiri groups, rivalry between neighboring countries, ideological rivalries, ethnic and cultural disruptions. Kurdish. In the short term, the crisis has caused the crisis of war, homelessness and the growth of terrorist currents, and will have far-reaching consequences in the long run, leading to the breakup and disintegration of Islamic countries into smaller and smaller areas and geopolitical changes in the West Asian region. Can be. The cause of these crises is the control, intervention and capture of one or more values ​​such as location, space, location, water, resources, territory, ethnic minority, export market, freight route, energy, island, gorge, boundary line, religious location, and the like. It is. In the present study, after examining the factors affecting the ratings crisis, according to Friedman test, it was found that the political factor and the human factor have the highest rank in the crisis, respectively. And the economic, military and human factors are ranked between these two factors.

Many researchers in the field of international relations return the history of using energy carriers as a component of Political supremacy to the Ramadan War(1973) between the Arab governments and Zionist regime.The 1973 war and the two major oil shocks after that, plus the boycott of oil sales to Israel, not only increased the price of this energy carrier in the world, but also influenced international political relations and entered a new concept in the field of political literature. Petro Islam, or the use of oil from Islamic countries to advance their goals is The general concept that especially in the area power of Salman bin Abdul Aziz and his younger crown prince Mohammed bin Salman has become more specific.In other words, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is today the only state that is seeking to expand its political influence in other parts of the world by Petro Islam. The present study examines the evolution of the theoretical concept of Petro Islam in the course of time to determine how the Saudi government, by focusing on the concept of Petroleum, seeks to dominate the Islamic world and to what extent this powerful instrument will shape the regional action of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia on the horizon of 2035 .

The word petro-islam, as stated by Sandra Mackey, Middle East policy researcher and author of " The Saudis: Inside the Desert Kingdom" was first expressed by Fouad Ajami, a professor at Johns Hopkins University and deputy Minister at the US Department of Defense.After Fouad Ajami and Sandra Mackey, Giles kepel is one of the most important thinkers who has published a separate chapter describing the rise of political Islam in the new millennium, with the publication of Jihad: The Trail of Political Islam, Seeks to prove that Saudi empowerment is largely due to its petro-Islamic investment in the Muslim world. In fact, in terms of the modernity of the concept of Petro-Islam, rarely can a coherent book or writing be found that has a detailed description of the concept of Petro-Islam And so in the case of the research literature formed around the Petro-Islam, only the above documentation and, of course, the scattered articles and viewpoints can be mentioned.

The research method of this article is descriptive-analytical. library resources and other content sources, such as articles and dissertations, have been used as the main tools of this research.

After the rise of Salman bin Abdulaziz and the monopoly of power in the hands of his son and crown prince, Muhammad bin Salman, the Saudis have interfered with the widespread use of petro islam tools throughout the region and in the islamic world. The examples of the Yemeni war, the siege of Qatar, the arming of terrorist groups in Syria, the capture of the Lebanese Prime Minister, and the assassination of Jamal Khashoghchi at the Saudi embassy in Turkey are just obvious examples of a heightened trend showing how the new Saudi rulers are behaving inappropriately.  On this basis, Saudi Arabia, which was highly regarded by Sunni governments, is now viewed as an aggressive state.

As noted above, it seems that changing Saudi Arabia's regional policies and turning its a priori policies into aggressive policies and increasingly emphasizing the use of oil and religious ideology to expand power in recent years are among the most important elements to consider. in the horizon of 2035, the most likely scenario for Saudi Arabia's regional policies under the rule of Mohammed bin Salman is the collapse of alliances and coalitions that, since 1981 under the auspices of the GCC led by Saudi Arabia, have coordinated the policies of the Arab Gulf states. Because of its geographical and ethnic proximity to Saudi Arabia and its rich financial resources, the circle of GCC countries is of great importance to Saudi politicians, and the failure of this alliance could be a major blow to Saudi soft power in the Muslim world and in West Asia. On the other hand in 2035 even if the regional structures and legitimizing institutions of the saudi emain, islamic world is likely to be governed by a concert of members rather than being ruled by a hegemonic power

The societies development depends on the maximum participation of all segments of society and the status of women as half of human society has an important and PLAY important role in developing countries. However, women in many countries around world face various threats to life, health and employment, and the lack of social and political influence and decision-making power, has increased their challenges in face of above issues. Women's education is seen as a climax in development process, The development of education at various levels by using sufficient facilities, makes it possible to make the most appropriate use of this social human capital in process of socio-economic development. Therefore, this indicator is on high priority. Education is one of the most important tools that enhance women’s society position and empower them, directly or indirectly. It is important to address the issue of development in Islamic countries as they account for more than 2.5 billion people and 20% of all world's population and on other hand geographical distribution and more importantly, strategic and geostrategic location. Review of Literature:Various approaches have focused on the role of women in development, which is Mamsen divided into three categories:"women in development " "women and development " “gender and development” Women in development, which emerged in the early seventies and provided a framework for the modernization of development models. This model accepted the negative consequences of development for women, and outlines the ways in which women can strive to be more secure and gain access to education, labor markets and material resources. And believes that women's individual efforts and the shift in technology access, credibility and outsourced services, ensure women's development and empowerment. (Momsen, 2003: 12-13). Women and development fit into the model of dependency theory and emphasizes that women need to pursue their own projects to break free from male market domination. (Heinz, 2011: 293). Gender and development emerged in the 1980s and emphasized the re-examination of social, political, economic structures as well as development policies from the perspective of gender relations. This view emphasizes the differences and limitations that men and women are facing. In this study, we used the Gidden's Structural Theory for research Framework. According to Giddens's theory, individuals are the constructors of community culture, and the culture of society also shapes individuals' thoughts and there is a dialectical relationship between them. In Islamic countries, religious values ​​of Islam can be seen as a structure and religious beliefs of individuals as agents, and the process of development must be analyzed accordingly. The more religious reading in an Islamic country facilitates the presence of women in the public arena, the role of women in development is greater.

The research method of this research was documentary by analyzing those documents which contain information about the phenomena we intend to study (Bailey 1994). after gathering the data and categorizing them, the research community of Islamic countries and the statistical sample of women in selected Islamic countries was compared.

It is wrong if the process of development in Islamic countries is analyzed by Western standards. In the meantime, some Islamic countries that have adopted Western secularist and liberalist values ​​in line with Islamic values ​​and have created a specific blend of their own society have largely come close to Western development based largely on material prosperity. Turkey and the United Arab Emirates are among those countries. Iran in some indicators, such as women's education, especially at higher levels, even with Western development criteria ranked higher than most countries. In an effort to provide a definition of Islamic development, "Continuously improving the cultural, social, economic, political and human capacities of countries and their relationship to promoting justice, quality of life and human perfection." Dr. Panahi said. Islam teaches men and women to be different in nature and biology, but the difference is in the form of proportion, not the flaws and perfection of men and women complementary and accelerating progress.

Gender Gap Index, examines the social, economic, political, and legal opportunities available to societies and their impact on women. This indicator expresses the number of country opportunities for development are evenly distributed between two sexes. This index will pay in case of ​​economic and opportunity participation of women in labor force participation, wage and salary equity, attendance in managerial, legislative and professional positions. In field of ​​education, it has focused on literacy rates, graduation rates, and attendance at top government jobs, and in the field of ​​health refers to gender at birth and life expectancy. in terms of gender gap index, Iran is higher than Yemen, Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan in Islamic countries. But according to World Bank statistics, it is lower than Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman. In terms of participation and economic opportunity, is lower than Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Finally, despite the fact that women in Iran are in a good position compared to the Islamic countries in terms of health and education in particular, they are far behind in favor of other indicators that lead to policy and decision making and macro decisions. It needs to be legally executed for pathological review.
 

Multiparty space and multilateralism, the entry of regional and global powers into the power or discourse coalition game, and their attempt to rebuild and gain a greater share in the future international order, suggests that the world in this historical twist is pregnant with fluid orderly formation and It is witnessing changes in the transition from the Westphalian international system to the post-Westphalian era. With the decline of world powers and the hegemony of the West, and especially of the United States in recent years and the rise of regional powers on the other hand, changes in international power relations have emerged and multilateralism is emerging and signs of emergence. The new multi-faceted system versus the one-sided system of domination is now prominent. Located in the Southwest of Asia, the Islamic world is a civilization that enjoys tremendous geostrategic, ecocultural, geopolitical and geo-economics capacities that can put it in a good position in international equations and relations and enhance its status Give. Therefore, it has been attempted to examine the various capacities of the Islamic world and the research sought to answer the question of what sources of power the Islamic world possesses that can influence the promotion and development of its power and give rise to the colorful role of the Islamic world in equations Become global.
The Islamic world has the qualities and capacities that have promoted it as an influential force in the global system and the shaping of international equations. Some scholars believe that the world after the collapse of the bipolar system based on powerful political units has given way to civilizational units and that civilizations or cultures have become major players in international politics. On this basis, it can be concluded that Islamic civilization has a special place in the modern world system. To this end, an examination of the capacities of the Muslim world will reveal its position in the international system.

Islamic civilization is a religious civilization with many of its components centered on the religion of Islam. Because of this rich extension, it is both time-bound and meaningful, on the one hand, because its beginnings are almost certain, and on the other, it has a great deal of conceptual and subject matter that encompasses all the intricacies, subtleties, and universalities of the Islamic religion as It has a divine religion. The transition from state-based geopolitics to civilization-based geoculture in the 21st century is increasingly reflecting the reality of international relations in today's world. Traditional geopolitical theories such as Hartland and Remeland can be traced back to today's geoculture in an evolutionary direction, extending along a geopolitical geopolitical trajectory from MacIntyre to Huntington and Brzezinski. Geopolitical theory and maritime power have been used to better explain the capabilities of the Muslim world and to describe its geographical location. It is noteworthy that the Islamic world is overshadowed by such capacities that can enhance Islamic civilization within the dominant international. system.Extensive studies have been conducted in the various fields of the Islamic world, and institutions have sporadically studied and researched some of the issues of the Islamic world. But the Institute for the Future of the Islamic World, in particular, has studied numerous issues in the Islamic world with the aim of creating unity and convergence between the countries concerned.

The research sought to answer the question of what sources of power the Islamic world possesses that can influence its promotion and development and give rise to the colorful role of the Islamic world in global equations. When defining the concepts used, the data was collected mainly through the library and database method.

The adult Islamic world covers one fifth of the land area, establishing the link between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean Sea, and the presence of Albania in the Adriatic Sea Port, as well as the Persian Gulf and Oman Sea, the only access to free and warm waters. And Bangladesh at the head of the Bay of Bengal, as well as the position of the Maldives and Lacdio Islands in the Indian Ocean, which has made them a natural observation of much of the ocean, could all be reasons for the strategic importance of Islamic countries. If the Islamic countries understand their geographical location in the world, they will be able to foster convergence and solidarity among the Islamic world by adhering to the geo-strategic and geo-economics factor and setting the stage for becoming an effective global power.In the whole of the Islamic world, in addition to the geopolitical power and strategic regional depth of Iran, the economies of Malaysia, Indonesia and Turkey are good backers for empowering the Muslim world. Inter-civilization structures such as the Arab League, the Gulf Cooperation Council, Echo, the Organization of Islamic Unity plus Pakistan's nuclear and military capabilities in the civilian dimension, the role of the Hajj and Saudi oil, the regional soft power of Egypt, and a vast array of world scientists and capital Many Islamic countries, especially oil clubs in the Western world, are also among the components of the power of this complex. Different poles around the world, in terms of different abilities, are aligned and have a more or less close influence in organizing the international system. One of the poles that has a role in the future international system is the Islamic world civilization complex, which, based on the cultural, economic, strategic and geopolitical capabilities of the member states, has the capacity to acquire an independent polarity in the future system.

In the post-Cold War years, the security environment in the Islamic world has not been very favorable, and the region has witnessed crisis, conflict and geopolitical confrontation. This period has also witnessed the emergence of conflicting identities. The emergence of these conflicting identities has been a function of the action of social forces and their ideological process in regional competition. The result of this process has been the formation of new regional wars and geopolitical instability in the Islamic world. On the other hand, these regional wars themselves have led to an increase in the security and strategic role of the great powers in the regional environment, which in turn has exacerbated the scope of the conflict. In fact, when it comes to new wars in the security environment and geopolitical areas of the Islamic world, it shows that the role of regional actors has significantly increased, and the conflict has become part of the realities of the world's security environment. Islam has become and the future of the Islamic world will be affected by these conflicts and the identification of identity forces in the space of conflict. The main reason is the polarization of political and identity rivalries in the Islamic world. In other words, many actors in the security environment of the Islamic world, including Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt, have conflicting identity and geopolitical approaches, and in such circumstances, the ground is prepared for the reproduction of domestic, regional and international competition. The great powers will also try to use various mechanisms, including the reproduction of conflicting identities, fragile rivalries, regional wars, and strategic divisions. Therefore, given this fact, the main question is what will be the geopolitical formation of Southwest Asia and the countries of the Islamic world in the future? The argument is that identity, as well as being a correlational factor, will be considered a factor in the spread of social and cultural gaps. In such a situation, conflicts become cultural or quasi-cultural in nature and are linked to structural components. The link between identity and structural components is one of the main factors in the spread of regional crises. The reality is that the structural shaping of the international system and the needs of the global economy will affect the future of politics and the security of the Islamic world. This process will lead to several factors that could affect the geopolitical formation of the Islamic world. These factors include the emergence and proliferation of proxy wars in the Islamic world, the increase in asymmetric threats in the Islamic world, identity erosion wars in the Islamic world, asymmetric mixed wars in the Islamic world, and the transnational coalition of actors in the Islamic world. The confrontation between Saudi Arabia and Egypt with the resistance forces in the Islamic world, the confrontation of the Saudi identity and the Salafi world with Iran, the spread of chaos in the geopolitics of the Islamic world. But the next question is what will be the scenarios of Iran's strategic action in the future of the Islamic world. In this case too, it is argued that Iran's strategic scenarios in the Islamic world will be based on signs of normative balance and trust. continuation of identity conflicts provides the basis for the role of trans-regional actors and turbulent countries in the regional environment. In this regard, it is necessary to mention the mechanisms related to cooperation patterns and scenarios that promote Iran's constructive role in the regional environment. Each of these mechanisms can be considered as part of the security needs of the future of the Islamic world. One of these mechanisms is the need for regional balance in Iran's strategic policy. Another mechanism is Iran's tactical coalition in the Islamic world. Other mechanisms include building trust in Iran's regional policy, avoiding surprises in conditions of ambiguity and uncertainty, regional balance and friction control, countering proxy wars in a strategic environment of uncertainty, preparing to control future regional conflicts, and reproducing the policy of preservation, that noted the current situation, crisis management and chaos control in the face of security ambiguity. The suggestion of such mechanisms is based on research future and this research has tried to achieve them by using scenario writing method. Scenarios and future research emphasize signs of uncertainty. Scenario writing is one of the main mechanisms of future research in regional environments. In other words, it can be said that the scenario is the ideal product of future research, because it is based on a deep and creative approach to the future. A method that carries the risk of encountering astonishing forces. The descriptive scenario is not simple and time-consuming, but the scenarios will depict future probabilities and analyze and recognize complex environmental variables. Scenarios as a way of foresight are tools to help us make far-sighted decisions with high uncertainty that make it possible to integrate medium- and long-term futures with short-term and medium-term strategic planning. A scenario is not only a prediction of a particular future, but also a description of all the probabilities of a possible future. In fact, the scenario is a tool for studying the future by analyzing policies and recognizing the conditions, threats, opportunities, needs and values ​​of the future of the future. choosing the most probable image is not possible, but drawing all possible images of the future. Scenario forecasting is not the future, because in designing scenarios, all possible futures are depicted, some of which may not be realized. In addition, screenwriting based on evidence, data, and information reconstructs and represents past and present events and trends, emphasizing actors and actors and their priorities, strategies, and capabilities.