فصلنامه پژوهش های سیاستگذاری و برنامه ریزی انرژی
سال پنجم شماره 4 (زمستان 1398)

The real exchange rate indicates the ratio of the price of tradable goods to the price of non-tradable goods and is one of the key indicators in the Iranian economy that has undergone significant leaps in recent years. In the present study, the effects of real exchange rate shocks on energy intensity (as one of the important economic-environmental indicators) of Iran's economy is investigated with recognising four mechanisms: price effect (relative energy price change), scale effect (change in economic volume), composite effect (change in mix of economic activities) and technical effect (change in productivity). By modelling the empirical model by Structural Vector Autoregressive method with data from 1974-2016 period, the results show that increasing the real exchange rate reduces energy intensity from the price effect and the scale effect channel, while its technical effect increases the energy intensity. Also, there is no significant composite effect. Finally, due to the dominant positive technical effect, the impact of the real exchange rate on the energy intensity was positive during the sample period, and as an outcome, the energy intensity would increase by decreasing the real value of the rial, ceteris paribus. This result can be due to the increase in the relative price of energy-efficient equipment and technologies (which are mainly imported goods, for both consumers and producers), as well as the increase in energy smuggling, which lead to increase the energy intensity.

Optimum depletion of oil reservoirs has been emphasized many times by Iranian supreme laws. To promote the effectiveness of the older version of Iranian Petroleum Contract (Buyback), Islamic Republic of Iran's Petroleum Ministry is allowed by law to design a new type of petroleum contract. Recently, new contract, so called IPC, is unveiled. Dorood oil field is one of the field which has been developed under Buyback contract. Many experts believe that, in this case, Buyback could not fulfill field's optimum production targets planned by NIOC. According to this claims and to evaluate how effective is IPC regarding to fulfilling optimum production, here, we tried to compare optimum production in neutral state (NIOC view) and what is expected to come out under IPC contractual limitations (IOC view). In the first step, optimum production paths were modeled and calculated using Dynamic Optimization Method under three different scenarios (reference, attractive and strict) and later data were analyzed. Results clearly show IPC's distortionary effect which means there is separation between NIOC and IOC's optimal production paths. So as a result, under IPC limitations contractor could not meet the production profile which NIOC targeted. IPC could not motivate the contractor to use EOR method in the field to promote the production as well. In all scenarios, contractor prefer to choose no injection or injection of a limited level of fluid into the reservoir as the optimum scenario.

In this paper, the integrated unit commitment problem and gas network operation in which in the presence of renewable wind and solar power plants is modeled. Both wind and solar energy are variable sources of energy, but because solar energy is only available at certain times of the day, it has caused the load curve behavior to change. This change in load curve, known as the "duck curve, has raised concerns that the power system can provide ramps needed to make full use of solar energy. The use of gas power plants to support the rapid ramp required by the network causes major fluctuations and changes in the gas flow in the gas network. Moreover, change in solar power requires a significant increase in gas power plants’ flexibility. In this paper, we focus on the impact of renewable energy sources on the gas network and vice versa. The use of electricity and gas storage systems, line pack gas network capability as well as the use of PtG technology can be proper solutions to reduce the effects of fluctuations for the safe operation of both electricity and gas networks. In this paper, a convex mixed-integer interval model will be presented for modeling the integrated unit commitment problem and the gas network with high solar penetration condition, gas and electricity storages, line-pack and PtG technology. The proposed model is solved by the Benders decomposition and tested on a modified IEEE 24-Bus test system and Belgian 20-node gas system. According to the results, maximizing the penetration of solar power plants may lead to security alerts in both power and gas systems including sudden pressure drop in the gas system or steep load ramps in the electricity system. While because of the capabilities of the gas system for storing gas and delivering it to gas fired power plants in specific time schedules, joint operation of these two systems can certify secure operation of both gas and electricity systems. Regarding I. R. of Iran vision for expanding solar power plants and considering the role of gas fired power plants as the main source of flexibility in Iran electricity system, it is required to establish a level of cooperation between operators of gas and electricity system to achieve safe operation of both systems while maximizing solar power generation.

Strategy at the level of multidisciplinary companies or holding strategy has been faced with much attention in the area of strategic planning recently. Multidisciplinary companies have different subsidiaries that operate in different environments with different conditions, So it is not possible to use the same strategy approach for all of them. The main question is; what’s the effective factors in formulation of strategy in multidisciplinary companies and how to choose the type of interaction by designing a system model? The main purpose is designing a holding organization with expert management system interacting with subsidiaries to improve performance and value creation. In this study, after extracting the primary decision variables, the final variables were selected through fuzzy Delphi method by using the experts group in the largest multidisciplinary company in the Gas field of Iran. The final input variables are organizational performance and the life span of the subsidiaries. The output of the model comprise value creation strategies such as strategic planning, strategic control and financial control. After extracting the decision variables, a three-level decision model was designed and validated using fuzzy expert system modeling. The results of the study on 10 subsidiaries in Iranian Gas Engineering and Development Company show that strategy control is one of the most important factors in the management of subsidiaries based on their organizational characteristics and performance.

Energy literacy enhancement and empowerment of citizens to adopt energy-saving behaviors lie among the most effective strategies for reforming energy consumption patterns. The present study aims to investigate the status of energy literacy in the northwest of Iran and model factors affecting it, with an emphasis on economic and financial literacy. To this end, using the survey approach and questionnaire tools, economic and financial literacy index and energy literacy index were measured and then an empirical model of research was fitted with censored econometric models (Tobit estimator). The statistical population of the study consisted of staff and professors of the universities of East Azerbaijan, West Azerbaijan, and Ardabil provinces. After sampling, 500 questionnaires were completed and analyzed. The results showed that financial and economic literacy has a positive and significant effect on two cognitive and emotional dimensions of energy literacy, while carrying insignificant effect on its behavioral dimension. Therefore, the hypothesis of the energy efficiency gap is confirmed among the statistical sample of the study. Households’ income level also influences the energy’s cognitive literacy significantly and negatively, and decreases energy-saving behaviors with increasing area of the house.

In addition to the building properties effect on energy consumption, it is important to consider occupant’s energy behavior and their interaction with building systems in energy calculations. According to studies, energy retrofit regardless of considering this factor, has a lower effect on reducing the energy consumption. This study investigates the impact of energy retrofit in two (retrofitted and non-retrofitted) university dormitories, on occupants’ comfort and the buildings’ energy consumption. Research methodology is based on filed studies and dynamic simulations. The results of filed studies showed that, the implemented improvements have minor effects on occupant’s comfort inside the building. Simulations also indicates that despite of 63% reduction of energy consumption in the new building, discomfort hours have increased 9.5%, compared to the other studied case.

Electricity consumption has been rising with an average annual growth of 7% in Iran and the imbalance in production and consumption has caused power outage crisis and economic losses. More than 50% of peak electricity demand is related to the household sector, so the household sector can be considered as the most effective component of the electricity crisis. Investment costs for the construction of power plants, transmission, distribution networks are increasing every year. In order to manage peak electricity demand in the short term, four main solutions are proposed: customer relationship management, electricity tariff reform, quotas and voluntary reductions in electricity consumption, and the replacement of low efficiency electrical equipments with high efficiency appliances. These policies have not been much successful. The failure of these policies can be attributed to inadequate social recognition of policymakers from the community. The tools and insights of behavioral economics are, in fact, a lost circle that can promote the implementation of such policies.