فصلنامه پژوهش های پولی - بانکی
پیاپی 41 (پاییز 1398)

This paper addresses the link between payment systems development and Economic growth and also investigates the role of technological growth and especially digital adoption status in this relationship. In this order, we use cross country data to compare Iranian payment systems situation with other countries in different aspects. Data analysis shows that Iran's payment systems are weaker in some respects, such as the dominant role of the old settlement systems in large-value payments, the integration of sales terminals, and the small share of new payment instruments (such as the Internet and mobile banking) in transactions. We apply this panel database to estimate the effect of infrastructure development in payment systems on economic growth.  Based on the estimation results, robust evidence confirms the positive impact of payment system development on economic growth. Although the role of digital adoption in this relationship induces the payment system development positively affects real sector activities only in countries with high or medium digital adoption. Moreover, the impact is stronger in the group of countries categorized at a high level of digital adoption.

Given the limitations of the existing performance evaluation models for organizations with dynamic internal and external conditions, this study aims to provide a flexible performance evaluation model with adaptability to intra- and extra-organizational changes. The present study first forms a database of criteria related to banking activities. After gathering the experts' opinions, we select 25 general concepts. By using a Fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) and weighted by the Fuzzy Analytic Network Process (FANP), we identify nine effective criteria. Creating organizational justice for all colleagues, meeting customer needs as soon as possible, emphasizing proper employee ethics with the customer, and doing research and developing for products and services are the most important criteria. The results show that the proposed flexible model can be used as a tool to extract performance evaluation criteria in accordance with the organization's requirements and utilized in the performance appraisal process. The novelties of the present study are updating the existing criteria in the database based on the results of evaluations and management decisions and changing strategies, using this model to select appropriate criteria in each period of performance evaluation based on organizational conditions.

The main challenge facing the country's banking system is credit default or the possibility of defaulting borrowers from fulfilling their obligations to the banking system, known as credit risk. Therefore to control credit risk, the factors influencing this type of risk must be identified. Several factors affect credit default in the non-government sector. This study examines the asymmetric effects of macroeconomic factors using Markov-switching and ARDL methods in the quarterly period of 2000 to 2017 on credit default. The results show that inflation, exchange rate, unemployment rate, and credit growth rate in Wilson's linear model have a negative effect on the default rate and the economic growth rate does not have a significant effect on the default rate. According to the nonlinear model, during the recession, rising economic growth rate, inflation rate, and unemployment rate reduce the credit default rate and increase the exchange rate and credit growth rate on the default rate, while during inflation, economic growth rate and inflation rate. It has no significant effect on the default rate, and the exchange rate and the growth rate of reverse communication credits and the unemployment rate are directly related to the default rate during inflation.

The conditions in which the financial system can continuously provide the necessary services for the proper functioning of the economy is called “financial stability”. In this study, using global experience and Iranian data from 1990 to 2016, an aggregate index of financial stability for Iran has been constructed under the four dimensions of "deposit taker institutions", "macroeconomics", "foreign sector", and "institutional quality". After this, the most effective indicators in the "fluctuations" and "average value" of the aggregate index of financial stability have been identified. The results show that of the 48 existing indicators, after the "spread rate" and the "ratio of foreign exchange reserves to short-term foreign debt of the government" which have had the most destructive effects on financial stability due to short-term shocks, the indicator "ratio of capital account to GDP", which is one of the main indicators of "external power" in the "institutional quality" dimension, has had the most negative effect on the "fluctuations" and "average value" of the aggregate financial stability index. The main reason for the destructiveness of this indicator was the high "fluctuations" and the long-term "downward trend" of "net changes in debt and short-term assets of the non-governmental sector (banks and others)".

In Basel III regulations, high risk coefficients are considered for banks investments. In terms of capital adequacy restrictions, the regulations state that if a bank makes a major investment in the non-financial sector, it must deduct the same amount of capital. This study examines the effect of banks' investment on borrowing by considering the role of capital adequacy, and also the impact that it can have on this relationship. To conduct this research, the data of 18 ranian private banks that were active in the period of 1396-1387 were used, which were investigated by panel data method and dynamic regression method (GMM). To achieve more accurate results, the model was estimated in three groups: private banks, privatized banks, and total banks. The results showed that the capital adequacy has a positive effect but the amount of investment of banks has a negative effect on their debt. Based on the results, we can say if banks can have a suitable capital adequacy ratio(at least 8%) then not only the effect of investment on lending is not negative but also by increase in investment banks can increase their lending.

The increasingly expansion credit risk in the form of non-current debts reduces the bank's financial ability to provide facilities and profitability, and could ends up in monetary & financial crisis through its externalities from banking sector to other economic sectors. Therefore, controlling this risk by focusing on the factors that influence its creation is important. Although various variables affect credit risk formation, this study emphasizes the characteristics of audit reporting and non-financial variables of credit risk default and occurrence of credit risk, which are less considered. To this end, the audit features and non-financial variables from 635 of Sepah Bank's legal customers' facilities were extracted for the period 2006-2017 and were predicted by logistic regression, credit risk and default probability. The findings indicated the key role of audit variables including ambiguity in continuity of activity, number of explanatory clauses, and auditor tenure, along with non-financial variables, on credit risk.