فصلنامه اقتصاد مقداری
سال هفدهم شماره 2 (پیاپی 65، تابستان 1399)

While bank functions can be complex and various, a bank is operationally defined as an institute whose current actions are mainly limited to giving loans to and taking deposits from people. It also plays an important role in the allocation of economic capital. A financial system with a developed level of efficiency can considerably facilitate allocation of appropriate sources to household consumptions as well as appropriate physical capital to productive sections in society. Thus, it is highly expected that efficient and profitable banks pave the way for the construction of an influencing financial system. In other words, the efficiency of the banks can lead to economic growth and development in their home country. The potential of banks to hold a highly efficient function determines their sustainability.  In Iran, the banking industry plays a pivotal role in providing financial resources due to the lack of a capital market. That is why any shortage in the structure and function of banks might have an adverse effect on other sections. Thus, gaining deep insights into the policies of the banks in Iran seems essential. Also, with the removal of imposed sanctions after the adoption of JCPOA, the Iranian banks are supposed to have the required level of efficiency compatible with a global level. Since providing financial resources in Iran significantly depends on banks and any malfunctions in banks lead to negative impacts on the economic conditions of the country, bank managers and policy makers should pay adequate attention to the efficiency of the banking industry. The high efficiency in the banking system in Iran can also bring them international benefits. To reach this aim, the determining factors influencing the efficiency of the banking system in Iran need to be explored. Many studies have already investigated the decisive factors in the efficiency of banks in Iran. However, the interpretation of the findings of these studies is sensitive to their sample. To control this sample-dependence interpretation, in this study we have taken advantage of two-stage efficiency analysis of Simar and Wilson (2007). To do so, in the first stage, we examined the efficiency of banks via bootstrap method in the period between 1384 and 1394. In the second stage, via bootstrapping regression, we examined the weight of the influencing factors in the efficiency of the banks. The findings of the first-stage analysis helped us to distinguish between efficient and inefficient banks. They also showed that the efficiency of the banks significantly increased in the given period of time. Furthermore, the second-stage analysis indicated that some factors such as investment, size of banks, credit risk, interest rate, operating costs, and the virtual variable influence the efficiency of banks in Iran.

Price stability and sustainable economic growth are conventionally considered as key goals of monetary policy. Financial stability is also recognized as the third pillar in the monetary policy objective function after the financial crisis of 2007. Although financial stability “as the third target in the monetary policy objective functions” is evidently inconsistent with the twin conventional monetary policy goals, it mitigates the side effects of financial turmoil impact on the price and growth instability in the macrocosmic environment in the medium term. Financial crises, which have historically created large deviations in the monetary policy goals, necessitate empowering the conventional policy instruments (policy interest rate, monetary aggregate and rate of requirement ratio) with unconventional policy instruments. In this context, unconventional supplementary monetary policy instruments streamline monetary transmission mechanism to achieve asymmetrically triple monetary policy goals through expanding open market operations to non-governmental bonds, facilitating banks’ overnight financing in the payment system, and initiating zero bound interest rate policy. In this research, a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model (DSGE-Gertler and Karadi, 2011) is technically utilized to estimate the impact of conventional (interest rate) and unconventional (credit lines) monetary policy instruments on the macroeconomic variables (inflation, output growth, exchange rate and stock market price index), while simulating the macroeconomic variables response to financial instability. The simulation evaluates monetary policy impulse response function based on optimization approach in the context of crisis scenario. Monetary policy rules basically assessed in this paper are introduced in the context of optimization and non-optimization, which include Taylor interest rate rule without financial stability, simple optimization interest rate rule with financial stability, and unconventional monetary policy rule. In this context, Central banks’ line of credits as unconventional tool, which is influenced by the policy maker decisions, injects directly to banking network flow of funds. Central banks, which had sold the public bonds to the families in the form of risk-free investment in the first step, accumulate financial resources in the balance sheet. Accumulated financial resources lend simultaneously to the firms in the second step in the context of unconventional expansionary monetary policy in order to increase banking network leverage ratio, which streamlines credit operations and develops private sector investment. Presumably, central bank intervention is empirically considered inefficient compared to the private sector in the financial intermediaries due to CBs cost inefficiency to find and allocate to the key economic sectors. The DSGE parameters are statistically estimated by the Bayesian approach through using time series for some macroeconomic variables including consumption, private investment, inflation, government expenditure, change in outstanding loan, commercial banks leverage ratio, and stock market return. Given the fact that the Bayesian estimation is technically required to introduce the distribution of parameters as priors, priors are determined through numerical analysis as well as through previous research. The estimation log data density mounted at about 399 and the robustness of estimated parameters has been verified based on test of Brooks and Gelman (1988). In this study, rapid reduction in the quality of capital is considered financial crises shock indicator which influence key macroeconomic variables. Simulation results indicate that unconventional monetary policy affects efficiently real sector sustainability while mitigating financial instability (assets market) in the macroeconomic environment. In this regard, financial stability is evidently accompanied by the lower nominal interest rate and inflation in line with Gertler and Karadi (2011). In other words, although unconventional rather than conventional monetary policy instruments were limitedly utilized amid financial turmoil in Iranian economy, they create sustainable growth along with lower interest rate and inflation in the medium term accompanied by higher household welfare. Utilization of unconventional monetary policy instruments diversifies policy tools and reduces the deviation of conventional policy instruments and target variables (price, output growth and financial stability) in the Iran macroeconomic environment.

For the United Nations, the overriding goal is to improve the quality of human life. Accordingly, the Human Development Index has been introduced by this organization as a measure of quality of life. The Human Development Index is a pure composite index that measures the average success of a country on three basic benchmarks of development: health, health, education and economic welfare. In this paper, the human development index (without oil) for the provinces of Iran in 2005, 2010 and 2015 based on the United Nations method. According to the results, the highest and lowest human development indices of provinces in 2005, 2010 and 2015 were 0.733, 0.751 and 0.769 for Tehran province and 0.595, 0.539 and 0.631 for Sistan and Balochistan province, respectively. After Sistan and Baluchistan, the provinces of Kurdistan, North Khorasan, Kohgiluyeh and Boyer Ahmad, and Lorestan have the lowest human development index among Iran’s provinces. The data show that the average human development of provinces in the country has increased by 3% between 2005 and 2010, while it has decreased to 0.5% between 2010 and 2015. Another result of this study is the impact of human development on the economic growth of provinces using Fuzzy Mamdani method. Implementation of the second and third laws of the fuzzy rules has shown the positive impact of human development index on economic growth as the output of the provinces fuzzy system. An examination of the components of human development indicators shows that the most important factor in the slowdown in human development is the negative growth of provincial per capita income between 2005 and 2015. In the meantime, the per capita income of the provinces has fallen by an average of about 20%. Careful examination of the findings shows that the provincial education index is a strong point of provincial human development index as it has increased from 0.577 in 2005 to 0.736 in 2015, which indicates that good developments have taken place in recent years and that education has been constantly improving. Given that the pace of improvement in human development has been modest in the years 2010-2015, it is necessary for national planners to focus on investing in education and health, which are important components of development. Also, to improve the living conditions of the provinces with low human development indexes and more poverty and deprivation, more attention should be paid to investing in education and health in these areas to increase per capita income and employment, which would reduce poverty and deprivation measures that can ultimately lessen regional and inter-provincial inequality in the country. It is also conceivable that during the past three decades the government and development planners have identified various underprivileged and underdeveloped areas in line with the findings of this paper. However, despite the authorities' attention to these areas, no significant change has been observed in the socio-economic status of these provinces, perhaps due to a one-dimensional look at the issue of development and making blind investments in these areas. Another result of this study is the impact of human development on the economic growth of provinces using Fuzzy Mamdani method. According to fuzzy rules designed in MATLAB software, the impact of human development index on economic growth of provinces is determined. Implementation of the second and third laws of fuzzy rules has shown the positive impact of human development index on economic growth as the output of the provinces fuzzy system. Careful examination of the findings shows that there is little to no relationship between human development and economic growth prior to the level of human development, while there is clearly a positive relationship afterwards

Non-realization of socio-economic rights and the severe poverty affecting the human society at global, regional, national and local levels stem from the lack of optimal economic decision-making. Accordingly, this issue has been raised in the United Nation's Chart implying that the achievement of economic and social development needs international community measures. In this regard, the economic model known as Medium Term Expenditure Framework has been proposed by the World Bank, as one of the international organizations active in the field of economic policy, which, based on its own goals and the UN Charter's objectives, pursues economic, social and financial rights and development of countries through financial management reform of the public sector considering that based on international human rights instruments economic and social rights are included in "positive", "cost-effective", "opportunity-dependent", "gradual" and "programmatic" commitments. Since the way it is realized requires "planning" and "allocation of financial resources", the implementation of this right is made operational through the "government's financial program" mechanisms. This model has been implemented with the support of the World Bank in more than 130 countries around the world. The purpose of the present study is, first, to determine which international law sources this economic model corresponds with, and, second, to explain the results from the implementation of this model in developed and developing countries and the realization of economic and social rights in form of a descriptive analysis method using library resources. The results of the study indicate that legally considered, the World Bank's economic model (Medium Term Expenditure Framework) can be evaluated as an embodiment of "Soft  Law" within the framework of the UN Declaration on Right to Development. However, governments are obliged to respect it based on the normative order of human rights as poverty is contrary to human rights and it violates human dignity. To realize this, several preconditions should be met, which include adopting sound and transparent economic policies, appropriate public investment and comprehensive development, especially in matters related to education, health, infrastructure, agricultural development, creation of more opportunities for decent work, proper management of administrative affairs, etc., all of which are dependent on governments to properly manage public resources. Medium Term Expenditure Framework has also been focused by countries as a tool to improve financial performance. In the meantime, this economic model creates a communicative framework between the two components of policy and planning with the "government financial plan", while most of the models presented in relation to the government's financial plan do not have this communication system. Therefore, the implementation of this model by countries results in the systematization of political power in directing public resources, on the one hand, and achieving good governance, on the other hand, in line with ultimate international law, thereby providing for the excellent objectives of human rights documents with respect to economic and social rights.

The MGARCH approach is an important factor for the capital market and the investors. The main goal of investors is to get a maximum profit from the output of their investment. Financial assets must be greater than other options in order to encourage the investors to invest in them (Mehrani & Bahramfar, 2004). The implementation of efficient market economy theory by governors in the recent years has partially increased the capital market's share of money in financing firms. Qualitative and quantitative development of the capital market and Islamic financial affairs as the main sources of financing in the last two decades, formulation of accounting and auditing standards required for economic entities, and other corrective actions have turned the exchange market into one of the best options for investment. According to the latest statistics, more than ten million Iranians have stock code and have invested part of their resources in the exchange market. Considering the importance of the matter, this essay aims to study and survey the effect of financial sustainability on monetary policy transfer mechanisms. The correlation between investor confidence in the markets, money growth and macroeconomic growth without oil is going to be analyzed alongside their fluctuations.   The practical research in the developed markets has shown that any change in macroeconomic variables brings about subsequent changes in stock prices; therefore, it is expected that there is a strong relationship between stock prices and macroeconomic variables. The stock price index is the most important factor influencing investor decision making in the stock market, and we need to be aware of the factors that influence stock price. The process of monetary policy transfer begins from the asset market because the costs of information and transaction for most assets are lower than the costs of changing the production or adjusting consumption or investment of durable goods, especially when there is uncertainty whether policies are permanent or temporary.   The asset market responds very quickly, and thus assets prices play an important role in the money transfer mechanism. Using the MGARCH estimator, this study reveals the relationships between investors' confidence ratios, real money growth, and economic activity without crude oil exports and their fluctuations.   Using this estimator helps estimation of uncertainties and produces perfectly consistent criteria. In this essay, the PEG index of price-earnings to earnings growth for a variable of investor confidence is used, which is a better indicator than PE. It should be put into consideration that the potential growth of the companies can reflect the life of the investors as it uses several revenue generating factors such as brand, human capital and expectations and barriers to entry.  This study investigates the effect of financial sustainability on monetary policy transfer mechanisms in Iran. The correlation between investor confidence in markets, money growth and economic growth without Iranian crude exports is analyzed along with their volatility. We particularly consider the heterogeneity of error variances in an MGARCH framework to obtain the estimated uncertainty criteria endogenously.   In this paper, seasonal data of variables from the beginning of 1991 to the end of 2016 are considered. The results have shown that there is a positive correlation between macroeconomic volatility without oil and PEG investor confidence.  The M2 cash flow fluctuation has negative effects on PEG. The results also indicate a bilateral Grange impact between macroeconomic volatility without crude oil exports and liquidity volume. Other results of the study are:- Monetary policy can only directly affect investor confidence and its fluctuations in a long term. There is no significant Granger relationship between macroeconomic without oil and GDP growth. - The results show the negative impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on oil noilGDP growth and the cause of the negative effect between production growth and its medium- and long-term volatility. - If monetary policy can directly control the capital market and its sustainability, given the correlation with the noilGDP and its fluctuations, production consolidation and asset price seem to be sufficient goals. Of course, having a smooth economic cycle can relatively and satisfactorily stabilize the market.   However, the analysis shows the importance of monetary policy, which reflects the strong negative correlation between currency fluctuations and macroeconomic stability without oil and assets.

The purpose of this paper is to define and calculate Iran's budgeting system resilience index. Iran’s economy is among those with low resilience and high vulnerability. Economic resilience which means enduring the effects of economic shocks and recovering quickly from them to return to the pre-crisis functioning, can help make the economy more flexible. In the literature of economic resistance, the concept of economic resilience has been introduced as a comprehensive measure in the literature of economic stabilization. Economic resilience is the result of predicted policies, while economic vulnerability is one of the inherent characteristics of the economy. On the other hand, areas that reduce the ability to resist exogenous shocks and that cause the government budget sectors to be exposed to shocks and to be affected and lose their resistance recovery are referred to as areas of vulnerability. Because different markets are related to this sector in various ways, in the event of a crisis or external shock and instability in this sector (as was the case with UN Security Council sanctions and US sanctions) other sectors are affected as well. This makes the need to pay more attention to the stability of the sector and, to a greater degree, its resilience apparent. Since the estimation of the resilience index for Iran economy has been done in the macro studies in the past, identifying the resilience categories and the vulnerability of the budgeting system sectors and estimating the related index are innovations of this study. In order to calculate the budgeting system resiliency index, its constituents must be defined and identified. Grounded theory (GT) is used for this purpose. Accordingly, categories affecting resiliency components are studied and a conceptual model is presented to summarize the results. In order to quantify the concept of government budget resilience, a variable corresponding to the resilience concept is considered. By using Bayesian Model Averaging approach, the most important variables are identified and the normalized average of these variables is used to construct the index. The topics of government budget resilience were divided into four general categories: (1) budget provision; (2) budget allocation; (3) social, political, and economical institutions; (4) policy making and policy rules. A category-related variable is considered to represent the effects of that variable to illustrate the impact of that concept on the resilience of the government budget sector. For this purpose, Bayesian Model Averaging was used to identify unfragile variables (in terms of maintaining influence in the presence of other variables). The calculations were performed using 320,000 regressions and sampling. Four variables including oil revenue to total government revenue ratio, budget deficit to GDP ratio, inflation rate and current budget to development budget ratio were calculated. In the two steps of calculations, unfragile variables were calculated. To construct the index, the variables were normalized and averaged. The time series of government budget sector resilience index were calculated for the years 1973 to 2016. Four variables, as unfragile variables (this means that it retains its work as an effective factor in the resilience of the government budget sector in the presence of other variables and is meaningful), were identified in the presence of 18 variables, which shows that these variables should be emphasized more than others in assessing the effect of government budget sector. In this regard, decreased dependence of the budget on oil revenues, minimized government size and increased sensitivity in budget allocation are recommended to reduce the vulnerability. The sharp fall in the index after 2009 compared to its limited fluctuation between 1997 and 2008, the impact of economic uncertainty and external shocks such as oil revenue constraints (specifies the economy of Iran) indicates high vulnerability and low resilience to external shocks and internal crises.