نشریه اقتصاد و تجارت نوین
سال چهاردهم شماره 3 (پیاپی 44، پاییز 1398)

The effect of exchange rate fluctuations on foreign trade has always been the focus of economists and economic policymakers. It should be noted that different and sometimes contradictory theories and conclusions have been raised. This study examined the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on Iran's trade balance with Germany and Turkey. The results have been reviewed and compared. These results using NARDL model show the long-run relationship and the asymmetric effects of exchange rate fluctuations on Iran's trade balance with respect to both countries. The J curve has been approved in relation to Turkey, but this phenomenon is not confirmed in relation to Germany. Therefore, considering the economic conditions of Iran, the devaluation policy alone cannot be considered as a policy to improve the balance of trade. The dependence of the domestic sector on the import of primary goods and final products and the low elasticity of non-oil imports and exports are the problems which need to be addressed in economic policies.

Innovation diffusion is one of the most significant determinants affecting competitiveness, development and economic growth. Thus, investigating factors that affect this variable is important to stimulate the development process. One of the most prominent factors which affect innovation is the government’s policies. In this article, we attempt to look into the importance of governments' demand-side policies in developing countries on innovation growth over the period 2011-2015. Therefore, monetary, fiscal, commercial and currency policy effects on innovation growth are investigated. The outcomes of the GMM model show that the increase in interest rate, government spending, and tariff rate have a positive and statistically significant effect on innovation, while the impact of the under-valued exchange rate is negative and statistically significant. Hence, demand-side policies should be coordinated with supply-side policies to boost demand for domestic innovation.

International financial integration is a process of reducing financial frictions that lead to formation of free capital flows. Joining the international financial flow influences the volatility of economic variables from different channels and hence, it is important to examine the conditions that key variables are less responsive to shocks despite the capital account transfers. One of the issues that is being considered in this regard is the choice of the currency regime. Hence, in this paper, in assistance with a general dynamic stochastic equilibrium model with price rigidity, at first, a channel was designed to simulate the financial integration scenario in line with the characteristics of the Iranian economy and then the model performance in two modes of floating and managed float exchange rate regime in response to government spending and oil shocks has been investigated. The results show that, in response to government spending shocks, the floating exchange rate will lead to less fluctuations in key variables such as production, consumption, inflation and real exchange rate and in response to the oil shocks, managed float exchange rate will lead to less fluctuations in production, consumption, inflation and real exchange rate.

The purpose of this study is to introduce a pre-crisis warning pattern in Iran during the years 1981-2016 using Logit and Markov switching approaches. This study use a combination of exchange rate changes, foreign reserves and bank profit to calculate the adjusted currency crisis index. In this regard, to investigate the factors affecting the probability of currency crisis was used to Logit approach and  to investigate the effect of early warning variables on the currency crisis the Markov switching approach was used. The results of the Logit approach indicate that the increase in the variables of the ratio of government deficit to GDP, current account deficit to GDP ratio and inflation rate had a positive effect on the probability of a currency crisis. On the other hand, an increase in GDP growth and oil prices has reduced the likelihood of a currency crisis. The results of the Markov Switching approach also show that variables of the ratio of government deficit to GDP, current account deficit to GDP ratio and inflation rate have increased the occurrence of currency crisis. Also, the increase in explanatory variables of oil price and GDP growth rate will reduce the occurrence of currency crisis.

In the present study surveyed the affecting factors on changes in energy consumption in the forms of energy intensity, structural and activity effects (in terms of million barrels of crude oil equivalent) by using Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) approach with additive method in form of chain-linked decomposition analysis, in two economic sectors including industry and transportation for the period of 2006-2014 in Iran. Also, by using the decoupling index, the analysis of the relationship between GDP growth and energy consumption in the total of the two sectors of industry and transport and energy consumption in the total of these two sections is discussed. The results show that energy consumption has increased during the study period in these two sections and these two sections experienced three states of non-decoupling, weak decoupling and negative decoupling. The structural effect of explaining changes in energy consumption and explaining the decoupling of energy consumption from GDP growth has the largest share, and this result indicates that the use of high energy industries has a greater share in changing energy consumption than other factors.