فهرست مطالب

جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی - پیاپی 72 (تابستان 1399)
  • پیاپی 72 (تابستان 1399)
  • تاریخ انتشار: 1399/04/29
  • تعداد عناوین: 18
|
  • سید رضا آزاده، جمال محمدی سیداحمدیانی*، حمیدطاهر نشاط دوست صفحات 1-33

    هدف اصلی از انجام این پژوهش، بررسی رابطه متقابل شاخص های کمی مسکن و سلامت روانی شهروندان است. در این راستا متغیرهای مستقل ش65 امل انواع الگوهای مسکن، تراکم ساختمانی، سرانه مسکن، تراکم خانوار در واحد مسکونی و تراکم نفر در اتاق است. افسردگی و استرس درک شده نیز متغیرهای وابسته پژوهش هستند. برای سنجش میزان استرس افراد، از پرسشنامه استرس ادراک شدهکوهن و همکاران (1983) و برای سنجش میزان افسردگی، از ویرایش دوم پرسشنامه افسردگی بک و همکاراناستفاده شده است. در این پژوهش جامعه آماری، خانوارهای ساکن در محله مرداویج کلانشهر اصفهان است. براساس آمارنامه جمعیتی کلانشهر اصفهان، در سال 1395 تعداد خانوارهای ساکن در این محله برابر با 5691 خانوار گزارش شده است. با استفاده از فرمول کوکران، اندازه نمونه در این تحقیق برابر با 250 خانوار است. از این رو، تعداد 250 پرسشنامه در بین خانوارها توزیع و نهایتا 231 پرسشنامه کامل و بدون خطا جمع آوری شد. نتایج تحلیل های آماری نشان داد، تمام متغیرهای مستقل پژوهش به عبارتی شاخص های کمی مسکن رابطه معناداری با شاخص های سلامت روان یعنی افسردگی و استرس دارند. بنابراین این فرضیه در پژوهش حاضر در توافق با بسیاری از پژوهش ها اثبات شد که میان شاخص های کمی مسکن و شاخص های سلامت روان رابطه معنادار وجود دارد. نتایج در زمینه استرس درک شده نشان داد که برای تغییرات این شاخص، می توان یک مدل براساس شاخص تراکم ساختمانی پیشنهاد داد. به این معنا که از میان چهار شاخص مستقل، شاخص تراکم ساختمانی بیشترین تاثیرگذاری بر استرس درک شده را دارد. در نهایت براساس مدل پیشنهادی، تراکم ساختمانی قادر است 47 درصد از تغییرات استرس درک شده  را پیش بینی کند. براساس مدل های پیشنهادی، دو شاخص تراکم ساختمانی و تراکم نفر در اتاق به عنوان متغیرهای پیش بین برای شاخص افسردگی معرفی می شوند. در مدل اول تراکم ساختمانی تنها شاخص پیش بین است که 9/51 درصد از تغییرات افسردگی را پیش بینی می کند. در مدل دوم دو شاخص تراکم ساختمانی و تراکم نفر در اتاق به ترتیب قادر هستند 6/42 و 7/16 درصد از تغییرات افسردگی را پیش بینی نمایند. نتیجه نهایی پژوهش آن است که بیش از گذشته باید رابطه میان متخصصان برنامه ریزی مسکن و روانشناسان تقویت شود تا تاثیر منفی افزایش تراکم بر شاخص های سلامت روان کنترل شود.

    کلیدواژگان: مسکن، تراکم مسکونی، سلامت روانی، استرس، افسردگی. محله مرداویج، اصفهان
  • احمد اسدی*، محمدرضا پورمحمدی صفحات 35-59

    در دهه های اخیر با ظهور انگاره های جدید، رشد و توسعه شهری به صورت هوشمند مطرح شده است و توسعه میان افزا جزیی از آن به شمار می آید. توجه به راهبرد توسعه میان افزا باعث رونق بافت های فرسوده و ناکارآمد شهری می شود. هدف این مطالعه بررسی تاثیر راهبرد توسعه میان افزا بر مولفه های سرزندگیو مطلوبیت اجتماعی می باشد. پژوهش حاضر از نظر ماهیت، از نوع تحقیقات کاربردی و از لحاظ روش تحقیق، از نوع روش های اسنادی- تحلیلی است. اطلاعات مورد نظر از طریق روش های کتابخانه ای و میدانی جمع آوری شده است. حجم نمونه 382 عدد پرسشنامه می باشد که از جامعه آماری بافت فرسوده شهر زنجان با استفاده از فرمول کوکران انتخاب شده است. یافته های تحقیق نشان م ی دهد که توسعه میان افزا تاثیر مثبتی در ارتقاء سرزندگی و مطلوبیت اجتماعی در بافت های فرسوده دارد و بین توسعه میان افزا با متغیرهای سرزندگی و مطلوبیت اجتماعی ارتباط معنی داری وجود دارد. بنابراین می توان گفت که سرزندگی و مطلوبیت اجتماعی به تفکیک توسعه میان افزا (کمتر، متوسط، بالا) دارای تفاوت معنی داری می باشد.

    کلیدواژگان: توسعه میان افزا، سرزندگی شهری، مطلوبیت اجتماعی، بافت فرسوده، شهر زنجان
  • رضا افروشه، علی اکبر رسولی*، داود مختاری، طاهره جلالی صفحات 61-80

    به منظور تحلیل رفتار دنباله توزیع و فراوانی رویداد دماهای حدی در استان کرمانشاه طی دوره مطالعاتی (2016-1961) ابتدا روند تغییرات مقادیر حدی با استفاده از آزمون های نا پارامتریک بررسی گردید. سپس با استفاده از مدل بلوک ماکزیما، توزیع GEV به سری داده های موردنظر برازش داده شد و مقادیر چندک متغیرها به ازای دوره های بازگشت مختلف تخمین زده شد. پارامترهای توزیع با استفاده از سه روش گشتاورها، گشتاورهای احتمالی وزن دار و حداکثر درست نمایی برآورد گردید. همچنین به منظور ارزیابی صحت مدل GEV برازش داده شده به رویدادهای حدی، نمودارهای چندک- چندک (Q-Q) برای ایستگاه کرمانشاه ترسیم گردید. نتایج بررسی ها نشان داد که در بین سه روش موردبررسی مقدار خطای استاندارد روش حداکثر درست نمایی کمتر از دو روش دیگر می باشد. با توجه به مقدار پارامتر شکل (ξ) و فاصله اطمینان 95% آن، در هر سه روش موردبررسی، پارامتر شکل در مورد دماهای حدی سرد، صفر را در برمی گیرد لذا تبعیت داده ها از نوع GEV نوع اول یا گامبل است. توزیع سری زمانی دماهای حدی گرم در ایستگاه کرمانشاه چوله به چپ بوده و تبعیت داده ها از توزیع GEV نوع سوم یا ویبول می باشد. با توجه به یافته های تحقیق تابع توزیع GEV قابلیت زیادی در برازش سری داده های حدی دارد.

    کلیدواژگان: توزیع مقادیر حدی تعمیم یافته، رویدادهای حدی، دماهای حدی، دوره بازگشت، کرمانشاه
  • رحمت بهرامی* صفحات 81-103

    مقاله به بحث درباره نقش صنایع روستایی بر توسعه اقتصادی و اشتغال زایی جامعه روستایی شهرستان سنندج در راستای برنامه ششم توسعه کشور می پردازد. توسعه پایدار روستایی فرآیندی چند بعدی است که موضوع آن بر بهبود و ارتقاء کیفیت زندگی اقشار آسیب پذیر جامعه روستایی تاکید دارد. راهبردهای متفاوت اقتصادی جهت ارتقاء سطح کیفیت زندگی روستاییان وجود دارد، یکی ازآن ها راهبرد توسعه صنایع روستایی است که از این طریق نه تنها بستر اشتغال زایی فراهم می گردد بلکه به عنوان منبع درامدی برای روستاییان محسوب می گردد. پژوهش توصیفی- تحلیلی و میدانی است، جامعه آماری شامل9آبادی شهرستان سنندج که 115خانوار به فعالیت صنایع روستایی اشتغال دارند. پرسشنامه ای در ابعاد اقتصادی و اجتماعی با 42متغیر تکمیل و از طریق نرم افزار Spss21 مورد تحلیل قرار گرفت. برای تجزیه وتحلیل، از روش میانگین،انحراف معیار و ضریب تغییرات استفاده شد. برای تبیین ضریب تاثیر متغیرها، شاخص ها را به سه گروه تاثیر زیاد،متوسط و کم تقسیم بندی و براساس روش میانگین متغیرها رتبه بندی شدند. یافته ها نشان داد بین توسعه صنایع روستایی و توسعه اقتصادی و اشتغال زایی خانوارهای روستایی رابطه معنی داری وجود دارد. به طوری که توسعه صنایع روستایی موجب افزایش سطح درآمد، اشتغال زایی و کاهش سطح بیکاری در روستاهای مورد نظر شده است. بیشترین تاثیر توسعه صنایع روستایی مربوط به شاخص اقتصادی با ضریب تاثیر زیاد01/54 درشاخص اجتماعی ضریب تاثیرزیاد برابر با 12/45 درصد بوده است. بنابراین راهبرد توسعه صنایع روستایی ضمن توسعه اقتصاد محلی از طریق اشتغال زایی و درآمد زایی، می تواند به عنوان یک راهبرد توسعه ای برای تحرک اقتصاد روستا تلقی گردد.

    کلیدواژگان: روستا، صنایع روستایی، توسعه اقتصادی، اشتغال زایی، سنندج
  • سعید جهانبخش، علی محمد خورشیددوست، حمید میرهاشمی* صفحات 105-128

    دامنه بادپناه کوهستان های میان مقیاس و بزرگ مقیاس مکان های مناسبی برای چرخندزایی بادپناه محسوب می شوند. این پژوهش با توجه به هندسه، جهت گیری و موقعیت کوهستان زاگرس، جهت بررسی گونه ای از چرخندزایی در بادپناه آن انجام گرفته است. بدین منظور از متغیرهای دما، ارتفاع ژیوپتانسیل، سرعت باد در راستای مداری و نصف النهاری، تاوایی پتانسیل و رطوبت ویژه نگاشته شده در مرکز  ECMWFاستفاده شد. بررسی ها نشان داد که وجود یک چرخند اولیه در پیش باد زاگرس برای ایجاد چرخندزایی در بادپناه آن ضرورت دارد. در این خصوص مشخص شد که چرخندهای اولیه با احتساب به جریان‎های شمال غربی و جنوب غربی تراز میانه جو، در دو شرایط همدید متفاوت به زاگرس نزدیک شده و در فرایند چرخندزایی بادپناهی دخالت می کنند. به عبارتی بر حسب عرض جغرافیایی چرخند اولیه و چگونگی آرایش پشته ناوه تراز 500 هکتوپاسکال، مسیر چرخندهای نزدیک شونده به زاگرس متفاوت هستند. در نهایت نتایج نشان دادند که چنین چرخندزایی در زاگرس براساس تیوری تعدیل اروگرافیکی کژفشاری ناپایدار قابل تبیین است.

    کلیدواژگان: چرخندزایی بادپناه، جبهه بندآمده، تاوایی پتانسیل، همشاری، واشاری
  • سید اسدالله حجازی*، معصومه رجبی، اسماء شعرباف بهتاش صفحات 129-150

    اکوتوریسم به عنوان یکی از شاخه های گردشگری، امروزه مورد توجه فراوانی قرار گرفته است. شناسایی و انتخاب مناطق مناسب اکوتوریسم در برنامه ریزی و مدیریت آن از اهمیت بالایی برخوردار است. دامنه های شمالی رشته کوه بزقوش در استان آذربایجان شرقی با دارا بودن انواع جاذبه های طبیعی یکی از مقاصد هدف گردشگران محسوب می شود. لذا در پژوهش حاضر شناسایی و اولویت بندی پهنه های مستعد اکوتوریسم دامنه های شمالی بزقوش مدنظر قرار گرفت. روش تحقیق در این پژوهش توصیفی- تحلیلی و از نوع هدف، کاربردی بود. برای دستیابی به اهداف پژوهش ابتدا با استفاده از مطالعات کتابخانه ای و نظرسنجی از کارشناسان، مهمترین معیارهای تاثیرگذار بر مکان یابی فعالیت های کوهنوردی، دامنه نوردی و اسکی شناسایی و سپس با استفاده از فرآیند تحلیل سلسله مراتبی (AHP) وزن معیارها تعیین شد. در ادامه نیز برای تلفیق لایه ها در سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی از تکنیک ویکور استفاده شد. در نهایت با همپوشانی نقشه های کوهنوردی، دامنه نوردی و اسکی، پهنه های مستعد اکوتوریسم منطقه مشخص شد. نتایج نشان دهنده این بود که 43/15 درصد منطقه از لحاظ توانمندی های اکوتوریسم در وضعیت بسیار مناسب، 52/35 درصد مناسب، 91/39 درصد متوسط و 14/9 درصد در وضعیت نامناسب است. پهنه بسیار مناسب محدوده های اطراف چشمه های آبگرم اسبفروشان و الله حق و همچنین روستاهای جلده باخان و اردها را شامل می شود.

    کلیدواژگان: اکوتوریسم، مکانیابی، فرآیند تحلیل سلسله مراتبی (AHP)، ویکور، دامنه های شمالی بزقوش
  • فرنوش خراسانی زاده، حمید صابری*، مهدی مومنی، میرنجف موسوی صفحات 151-181

    رزندگی در حقیقت تمایل شهروندان به حضور فعال و پویا در محیط های شهری گفته  می شود که باعث پر رونق و شلوغ تر شدن فضاهای شهری و افزایش حضور شهروندان در فضاهای عمومی شهر می شود. هدف از انجام این پژوهش بررسی عوامل موثر بر سرزندگی در فضاهای عمومی شهری از دیدگاه شهروندان و گردشگران در مناطق شهری(1و3و5و6) اصفهان می باشد. روش تحقیق از لحاظ هدف کاربردی و از لحاظ ماهیت و روش توصیفی تحلیلی می باشد . تعداد کل نمونه آماری بر اساس فرمول کوکران  با سطح اطمینان 95 در صد 584 نفر برآورد گردید. از این تعداد نیمی از شهروندان و نیمی از گردشگران  بالای 15 سال در چهار منطقه اصفهان در بازه زمانی دی ماه 96 تا خرداد 97 می باشد. برای اندازه گیری عوامل موثر در سرزندگی از چهار مفهوم امنیت، هویت، جذابیت کالبدی به عنوان  متغییر وابسته و شاخص سرزندگی به عنوان متغییر مستقل استفاده گردید. نتایج حاصل از مدل معادلات ساختاری  نشان داد که تاثیر امنیت بر سرزندگی برابر با 221/0 و این ضریب تاثیر معنی داری دارد (ضریب  t بیشتر از 96/1) این امر به این معنی می باشد که با بهبود امنیت، سرزندگی نیز بهبود می یابد. اثر هویت بر سرزندگی برابر با 854/0 و اثر جذابیت کالبدی بر سرزندگی برابر با 170/0 و این ضریب تاثیر معنی داری دارد .

    کلیدواژگان: سرزندگی، فضاهای عمومی، گردشگران، شهر اصفهان، شهروندان
  • مهسا خوش سیمای سردرود*، اکبر اصغری زمانی، شهریور روستایی صفحات 183-204

    شهرهای جدید لجام گسیخته در گوشه و کنار شهرهای بزرگ ایجاد می شوند. این امر باعث توسعه پراکنده، افزایش هزینه های شهری و در نهایت بزرگی بی حد و حصر شهری شده و مدیریت شهری را با پیچیدگی و مشکل مواجه می سازد، و ایجاد شهرهای جدید نه تنها به مهم ترین هدف خود که جذب سرریز جمعیت مادر شهرها هستند، دست نمی یابند، بلکه در اغلب موارد بعد از چند سال هنوز به مرحله بهره برداری نرسیده اند. توجه به این موضوع باید در دستور کار مدیران و مسیولین شهری باشد تا به جای توسعه پراکنده شهری، از بافت های ناکارآمد موجود (بافت های فرسوده) بهره جویند. بنابراین استفاده از توسعه میان افزا و بهره گیری از ظرفیت های موجود و کمک به حل مشکلات موجود هم از نظر فرسودگی مساکن و کاربری های جانبی و هم برطرف ساختن کمبود خدمات زیربنایی و روبنایی می تواند به توسعه شهری بی قواره انتظام بخشد. بدین منظور در این مقاله با بررسی نقش توسعه میان افزا در اصلاح بافت فرسوده محله حکم آباد تبریز با استفاده از روش تحلیل فضایی پرداخته شده است. که با استخراج شاخص های توسعه میان افزا (وجود اراضی قهوه ای و قطعات خالی، تعداد طبقات و...) و بافت فرسوده (کیفیت ابنیه، عمر ابنیه، مصالح بکارفته، اندازه قطعات، دسترسی قطعات و...) و نقشه های مربوطه و نهایتا نقشه نهایی میزان توسعه میان افزا محله مربوطه، که با استفاده از همپوشانی لایه های تراکم جمعیت، اراضی قهوه ای، نقشه عمر ابنیه، مصالح بکاررفته و... استخراج گردیده است بیش از 95 درصد استعداد توسعه درونی وجود دارد. لازم بذکر، است که در زمینه شبکه معابر موجود موانعی جهت توسعه وجود دارد که در آن زمینه هم شبکه معابر جدید و تعریض برخی معابر موجود پیشنهاد گردیده است، تا از حالت فرسودگی بیرون آمده و مانند گذشته حیات خود را بازیابد.

    کلیدواژگان: بافت های فرسوده، توسعه میان افزا، تحلیل فضایی، محله حکم آباد تبریز
  • حبیبه نقی زاده*، علی محمد خورشید دوست، رشید سعیدآبادی، محمدسعید نجفی صفحات 205-224
    در این تحقیق، به بررسی الگوهای سینوپتیکی حاکم بر وارونگی دمای شهر تبریز با استفاده از اطلاعات رادیوسوند، طی دوره زمانی 2010-2001 پرداخته شد. برای شناسایی و استخراج الگوهای همدید، از داده های رقومی فشار تراز دریا به صورت میانگین روزانه از سری داده های بازکاوی شده NCEP/NCAR در محدوده 10 تا 60 درجه طول شرقی و 10 تا 90 درجه عرض شمالی در 651 یاخته 2.5 ×  2.5 درجه استفاده گردید. با انجام تحلیل مولفه های مبنا بر روی داده های فشار تراز دریا در روزهای همراه با وارونگی دما، حجم آنها را کاهش داده و با انجام تحلیل خوشه ای بر روی مولفه های به دست آمده، مهم ترین الگوهای جوی شناسایی شدند و نقشه هر الگو به دست آمد. بر اساس نتایج چهار الگوی همدید اصلی در ایجاد وارونگی دما در شهرستان تبریز موثرند. در بیشتر الگوها، سامانه های پرفشار حاکم بوده است. در این الگوها هوای سرد به سبب حضور سامانه های پرفشار در سطح زمین به روی منطقه گسترش یافته، با استقرار سمت چپ یک ناوه عمیق بر روی منطقه؛ هوای سرد پشت آن از عرض های بالاتر بر روی تبریز فرارفت شده و پایداری شدیدی در ستون قایم جو ایجاد شده است. در الگوهایی که کم فشار شمالی به همراه پرفشار مهاجر اروپا عامل فرافت هوای سرد به روی منطقه  بوده است، هوای گرم عرض های پایین تر با استیلای یک پشته عمیق به روی منطقه بر روی هوای سرد سطح زمین قرار گرفته؛ به این ترتیب بر شدت پایداری هوای مجاور سطح زمین افزوده شده و وارونگی های شدید دمایی شکل گرفته است.
    کلیدواژگان: الگوی هوا، تحلیل مولفه های اصلی، خوشه بندی، وارونگی هوا، تبریز
  • هاشم رستم زاده، علی اکبر رسولی، مجید وظیفه دوست، ناصر ملکی* صفحات 225-245

    در این پژوهش با استفاده از محصولات ماهواره متیوست و TRMM نقش هر یک از خصوصیات فیزیکی ابر در میزان بارش مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفت. برای بررسی از سه مدل GPR ، TDوMLPBR استفاده شد. محصولات مورد استفاده در این پژوهش از ماهواره متیوست(MSG) عبارتند از : فشار قله ابر ، دمای قله ابر ، عمق نوری ابر ، فاز ترمودینامیکی ابر ، میزان حجم آب موجود در ابر ، شعاع موثر قطرات ابر  و نوع ابر. ابتدا محصولات در محیط نرم افزار متلب استخراج گردید و در مرحله بعد محاسبات با محصول بارش ماهواره TRMM انجام گرفت و ضریب خطا و ضریب تعیین بدست آمد. سرانجام میزان اثر بخشی هریک از مولفه های خصوصیات فیزیکی ابر در میزان بارش در غرب ایران از طریق روش آنالیز حساسیت محاسبه و مشخص شد. نتایج نشان می دهد که در بین مولفه های خصوصیات فیزیکی ابر نوع ابر بیشترین اثر بخشی را داشته و سپس شعاع موثر قطرات ابر و عمق نوری ابر به ترتیب در جایگاه دوم و سوم قرار دارند. در بین خصوصیات فیزیکی مورد بررسی کمترین اثر مربوط به فاز ابر می باشد.

    کلیدواژگان: ماهواره متئوست، TRMM، MSG، خصوصیات فیزیکی ابر، شبکه عصبی مصنوعی، غرب ایران
  • محمد امیدفر* صفحات 247-266

    با توجه به معضل کاهش مستمر حجم آب دریاچه ارومیه، شناسایی دقیق توزیع زمانی مکانی بارش های محدوده حوضه آبریزدریاچه ارومیه از نقطه نظرهای اقلیم شناسی و هیدرولوژیکی، از اهمیت ویژه ای برخوردار است. رادارهای داپلر یکی از فناوری های جدید سنجش از دورفعال است که در سال های اخیر اطلاعات با ارزشی از ویژ گی های ابر (نمایه سه بعدی، اندازه و نوع ذرات) و انواع بارش های ناشی از آن ارایه می دهد. هدف از پژوهش حاضر ارزیابی کارایی و مزایای کاربردی استفاده از رادارهای داپلری در مطالعه و تحلیل بارش های شدید حوضه دریاچه ارومیه می باشد. برای این کار، به عنوان نمونه خروجی محصول برآورد بارش تجمعی رادار تبریز، با داده های اندازه گیری شده ایستگاه های سینوپتیک، در روزهای 29-22 مهر ماه 1393مورد مقایسه و ارزیابی قرار    گرفته است. نتایج مطالعه نشان داد رادار داپلر می تواند با دقت نسبتا بالا و دید وسیع، ابزار مناسبی در جهت برآورد بارش باشد، اما در مناطق کوهستانی و مرتفع (مانند منطقه مورد مطالعه)، با توجه به اثر مسدود کنندگی امواج، در برخی نواحی مقدار خطا حتی تا100درصد نیز افزایش می یابد. البته این مشکل را می توان با استفاده از روش های درونیابی فضایی، به کمک اطلاعات سایر نقاطی که دارای دقت برآورد قابل قبول هستند مرتفع نموده و اطلاعات بدست آمده را به عنوان جایگزین مناسبی برای نقاط صعب العبور و فاقد ایستگاه، در مطالعات مدیریت منابع آب استفاده نمود.

    کلیدواژگان: بارش شدید، رادار داپلر، ارزیابی، حوضه دریاچه ارومیه، اثر مسدودشدگی امواج
  • وحید ریاحی*، فرهاد عزیزپور، زری قاسمیان صفحات 267-291

    حقیق حاضر به بررسی عوامل موثر بر تهیه برنامه چشم انداز توسعه در ناحیه روستایی هزارجریب می پردازد. این تحقیق به لحاظ هدف کاربردی و بر اساس روش، توصیفی - تحلیلی است. جامعه آماری مورد مطالعه، خبرگان ناحیه روستایی هزارجریب و خبرگان دستگاه های اجرایی مرتبط با امور روستایی هستند. خبرگان محلی(دهیاران و شوراها) 152 روستا به تعداد 152 نفر و خبرگان دستگاه های اجرایی  35 نفر هستند که با روش تعیین حجم نمونه با جامعه نامعلوم تعیین شده اند. برای انتخاب نمونه ها از روش نمونه گیری هدفمند استفاده شده است. برای جمع آوری داده ها واطلاعات از روش کتابخانه ای و میدانی، از فن پرسشگری و ابزار پرسشنامه استفاده شده است. در تجزیه و تحلیل داده ها از آزمون های دوربین واتسون(بررسی استقلال خطاها از یکدیگر)، رگرسیون، تحلیل مسیر و همبستگی پیرسون در نرم افزار SPSS بهره گیری شده است. مبتنی بر یافته های پژوهش این نتیجه حاصل شده است که عوامل موثر در تهیه برنامه چشم انداز توسعه روستایی در دو گروه ظرفیت ها و موانع شناسایی شدند که ظرفیت ها شامل جاذبه های گردشگری روستایی، توانمندی های بخش کشاورزی و سرمایه انسانی و موانع شامل محدودیت های ساختاری و برنامه ریزی، ناکارآمدی نهادی، ضعف مدیریت محلی و سازمانی، ضعف قوانین، غفلت از بخش کشاورزی، مشکلات اقتصادی و اجتماعی می باشند. با تعمق در ماهیت این عوامل و روابط مستقیم و غیر مستقیم، این نکته کلیدی مشخص شده است که محدودیت های ساختاری برنامه ریزی، ناکارآمدی نهادی، ضعف مدیریت محلی سازمانی و ضعف قوانین، موانع کلیدی تهیه برنامه چشم انداز توسعه در ناحیه روستایی هزار جریب می باشند.

    کلیدواژگان: ناحیه روستایی، برنامه، چشم انداز توسعه، شرق مازندران، ناحیه هزارجریب
  • میرستار صدرموسوی، حسین کریم زاده، محسن آقایاری هیر، عقیل خالقی* صفحات 293-317

    توسعه و عمران روستایی دارای جایگاه متفاوت در برنامه های توسعه (قبل و پس از انقلاب اسلامی) بوده و لذا جوامع روستایی، اغلب از آسیب های برنامه ریزی توسعه متاثر بوده که شهرستان ورزقان نیز از این قاعده مستثنی نبوده و بر همین اساس، تحقیق حاضر به تحلیل ترکیبی موانع اثربخشی برنامه های توسعه روستایی و آسیب شناسی آن پرداخته است. جامعه آماری شامل کارشناسان محلی است که در بخش کمی از پرسشنامه محقق ساخته (برای 132 نفر پاسخگو) و در بخش کیفی از مشاهده و مصاحبه نیمه ساختار یافته (51 نفر مصاحبه شونده در دو مرحله) استفاده شده است. نتایج کمی نشان می دهد «ضعف ساختار اطلاعاتی، نظام آماری و اطلاعاتی نامناسب» در پیش نیازهای برنامه توسعه؛ «مشارکت نگرفتن ذینفعان در برنامه های توسعه» در تدوین برنامه های توسعه؛ «کلی و تفسیر بردار بودن برخی مواد و تفصیلی بودن افراطی برخی» در محتوای برنامه توسعه؛ و «ابهامات در نحوه ارایه گزارش ها» در اجرای برنامه توسعه از مهم ترین موانع اثربخشی برنامه های توسعه در محدوده موردمطالعه می باشند؛ همچنین نتایج کیفی نشان می دهد: کاهش و افزایش قیمت ها، عدم هماهنگی بین دستگاه ها، متفاوت بودن تصمیمات دولت ها، چشم پوشی از ظرفیت های منطقه، ضعف سیستم اداری، چشم پوشی از دانش، اطلاعات و تجربه و به خصوص خواست های ذینفعان، توجه نکردن به توسعه پایدار روستایی، عدم توجه به کشاورزی خرده مالکان، استفاده از امکانات منطقه به سود مناطق مرکزی، تخریب منابع و معادن منطقه به نفع بالادست و عدم توجه به آینده منطقه و توجه بیشتر به شهر، توجه ناکافی به روستاها و مناطق محروم و دورافتاده، نقش متفاوت نمایندگان مجلس در همراهی با دولت و استفاده از نیروهای غیربومی در کارهای عمرانی از شرایط علی هستند که راهبردهای: به مشارکت گرفتن روستاییان در تعیین سرنوشت خویش، تعریف تفکری صحیح درباره روستا، تعریف استراتژی مشخص در زمینه توسعه روستایی، تعریف مدیریت واحد روستایی و اتخاذ روند پایین به بالا را طلب می کند. مقایسه نتایج هر دو روش کمی و کیفی نشان دهنده نتایج مشترک کمی و کیفی از دید کارشناسان محلی و افراد مطلع محلی می باشد.

    کلیدواژگان: توسعه، برنامه ریزی توسعه روستایی، روش آمیخته، ورزقان
  • ابوالفضل قنبری* صفحات 319-356

    تبیین تاب آوری در برابر تهدیدات، در واقع شناخت نحوه تاثیرگذاری ظرفیت های اجتماعی، اقتصادی، نهادی، سیاسی و اجرایی در افزایش تاب آوری و شناسایی ابعاد مختلف تاب آوری در جوامع انسانی است. در این میان نوع نگرش به مقوله تاب آوری و نحوه تحلیل آن، از یک طرف در چگونگی شناخت تاب آوری وضع موجود و علل آن نقش کلیدی دارد و از طرف دیگر در کاربست سیاست ها و اقدامات کاهش خطر می تواند نقش اساسی داشته باشد. در این مطالعه منطقه کرانه شرقی دریاچه ارومیه شامل 8 شهرستان آذرشهر، اسکو، بناب، تبریز، شبستر، عجب شیر، مراغه و ملکان به عنوان محدوده مطالعاتی به منظور تدوین طرح تاب آوری منطقه ای انتخاب گردید. روش پژوهش توصیفی- تحلیلی و ماهیت هدف آن در نظام برنامه ریزی محلی و توسعه روستایی، کاربردی است. با بررسی مبانی نظری، رویکردی بدیع با تلفیق روش های کمی شاخص مبنا و GIS در تبیین ارتباط بین آسیب پذیری ناشی از مخاطرات محیطی و تاب آوری منطقه ای ارایه گردید. بر همین اساس دو شاخص آسیب پذیری محیطی (EVI) با کاربست 8 معیار تبیین کننده مخاطرات محیطی و شاخص کلی تاب آوری منطقه ای(RRI) با استفاده از 19 معیار در سه بعد اجتماعی، دسترسی به زیرساخت ها و همچنین بعد استحکام بنا در نواحی روستایی ارایه گردید. نتایج بدست آمده نشان داد که  62 درصد از مساحت محدوده مطالعاتی در وضعیت آسیب پذیری زیاد قرار گرفته است که الگوی توزیع فضایی آن عمدتا در مرکز منطقه و در محدوده شهرستان های آذرشهر، عجب شیر و اسکو است. در مقابل 43 درصد از مساحت منطقه دارای ظرفیت بالای تاب آوری و 27 درصد از مساحت کل منطقه در وضعیت تاب آوری پایین قرار گرفته است. علاوه بر این، در پهنه های شناسایی شده با ظرفیت پایین تاب آوری در مجموع 168 نقطه روستایی استقرار یافته است. از این تعداد، 7 کانون بزرگ روستایی با جمعیت بیش از 3500 نفر قرار دارند که مجموعا 31081 نفر جمعیت دارند. با توجه به اهمیت منطقه مورد مطالعه در استان آذربایجان شرقی، ضرورت توجه به رویکرد تاب آوری در نظام برنامه ریزی محلی و همچنین ترویج رویه های ارتقاء تاب آوری منطقه ای بویژه در مناطق روستایی از ملاحظات و پیشنهادات اصلی پژوهش می باشد.

    کلیدواژگان: تاب آوری، منطقه، کرانه، شرقی، دریاچه، ارومیه
  • ابراهیم مسگری، تقی طاوسی*، پیمان محمودی صفحات 357-383

    خبندان یکی از پدیده های مهم مورد مطالعه در اقلیم شناسی است که وقوع ناگهانی آن در ابتدا و انتهای فصل سرما، می تواند بسیار خطرزا برای بخش کشاورزی باشد. لذا برای مدل سازی و پهنه بندی شاخص های آماری یخبندان ها در استان کردستان، داده های مربوط به دمای حداقل روزانه 6 ایستگاه همدید برای یک دوره 16 ساله (2016 - 2001) از سازمان هواشناسی ایران اخذ گردیدند. در ادامه با استفاده از مدل های رگرسیونی چند متغییره رابطه بین پنج شاخص آماری یخبندان ها یعنی متوسط تاریخ آغاز یخبندان، متوسط تاریخ خاتمه یخبندان، متوسط تعداد سالانه روزهای یخبندان، متوسط طول فصل یخبندان و متوسط طول فصل رشد با سه عامل ارتفاع، طول و عرض جغرافیایی مدل سازی گردید. در ادامه بر اساس مدل های رگرسیونی به دست آمده برای هر شاخص، نقشه های پهنه بندی آنها برای استان کردستان تهیه شدند. نتایج حاصل از مدلسازی رگرسیونی بین شاخص های مختلف یخبندان با سه عامل ارتفاع، عرض و طول جغرافیایی در استان کردستان نشان داد که این سه عامل به ترتیب می توانند 95، 90، 88، 80 و 72 درصد تغییرات مربوط به طول دوره رشد، وقوع اولین روز یخبندان، طول دوره یخبندان، فراوانی وقوع روزهای یخبندان و وقوع آخرین روز یخبندان را تبیین کنند. آرایش فضایی شاخص های مختلف یخبندان در استان کردستان نیز نشان از یک آرایش غربی به شرقی در مقادیر شاخص های مختلف یخبندان دارد. یعنی هر چه از جانب غرب به سمت شرق حرکت می کنیم تعداد فراوانی روزهای یخبندان و همچنین طول دوره یخبندان کاهش پیدا می کند و متعاقب آن فصل رشد افزایش پیدا می کند. متناسب با این تغییرات وقوع اولین روز و آخرین روز یخبندان نیز با تاخیرهای زیادی در بین نیمه شرقی و غربی این استان قابل مشاهده است.

    کلیدواژگان: یخبندان، رگرسیون چندمتغیره، استان کردستان، پهنه بندی، مدل سازی
  • مهدی نارنگی فرد*، مهران فاطمی، عبدالعلی کمانه، محمدصادق طالبی صفحات 385-403

    هدف از این پژوهش بررسی ساختار مقاطع مختلف زمانی بارش در ایستگاه همدید شیراز برای شناخت تغییرات و تعیین موقعیت فضایی ساختار بارش در بازه پایداری و ناپایداری، بوده است. در این راستا ساختار حاکم بر فراسنج آب و هوایی بارش در بازه زمانی 58 ساله (1956-2013) در مقاطع سه گانه زمانی مختلف (سه دوره 20 ساله) بارش روزانه با رویکرد فراکتالی مورد واکاوی و بررسی جداگانه قرار گرفت. برای انجام این پژوهش پس از هم مرجع سازی ریاضی فراسنج بارش با اعمال ساختار مثلثاتی فراکتالی بر روی داده های بدست آمده به مقایسه نتایج حاصله با هندسه کلاسیک فراکتالی پرداخته شد. بر اساس یافته های این پژوهش، در مقطع زمانی نخست از 1 ژانویه سال 1956 تا 7065 روز پس از آن با اعمال ساختارهای جبری فراکتالی، نشان داد که این مقطع زمانی از منطق فراکتالی پیروی نمی نماید. همچنین در مقطع زمانی دوم نیز همانند بازه نخست ساختار بارش از منطق فراکتالی پیروی نمی کند. به بیان دیگر منطق حاکم بر ساختار فراسنج بارش در مقاطع زمانی نخست و دوم از حالت تعادل به ناتعادلی است. اما برخلاف دو بازه زمانی گذشته، در بازه زمانی سوم، از منطق فراکتالی پیروی می نماید، که این یافته بیانگر گذار دینامیک این مقطع زمانی از حالت ناتعادلی به عدم تعادل می باشد؛ بنابراین با توجه به سه بازه زمانی دینامیک تعادلی ساختار بارش روزانه از آشوب به سمت فراکتال میل می کند.

    کلیدواژگان: شیراز، آشوب، برخال، تعادل، بارش
  • ناصر منصوری درخشان، بهلول علیجانی*، مجید آزادی، مهری اکبری صفحات 405-426

    غلب بارش های شدید در عرض های میانی با جبهه ها همراه هستند. با توجه به استقرار ایران در این نواحی، شناسایی و بررسی جبهه ها بسیار ضروری می باشد. از طرفی مطالعات اقلیمی جبهه ها با استفاده از نتایج روش جبهه گذاری دستی که اغلب دارای نتایج متفاوتی نیز می باشد، بسیار زمان بر و پرهزینه بوده و عملا غیر ممکن است. لذا در این تحقیق برای نخستین بار در داخل کشور به جبهه گذاری خودکار و عددی پرداخته شده است. ابتدا داده های منظم شبکه ای با وضوح 75/0×75/0درجه شامل دما، ارتفاع ژیوپتانسیلی، رطوبت نسبی، باد مداری و نصف النهاری در   تراز های مناسب از مرکز ECMWF اخذ گردید. سپس به کمک برنامه نویسی کامپیوتری، تابع شناسایی جبهه، محاسبه و با تعیین آستانه های مناسب برای مقادیر گرادیان دمایی و پارامتر دمایی جبهه (TFP)، جبهه های سامانه چرخندی در تراز hPa700 شناسایی و رسم شدند. در ادامه، جهت صحت سنجی جبهه های شناسایی شده، تابع جبهه زایی با استفاده از داده های مرکز داده NCEP/NCAR با وضوح شبکه ای 5/2×5/2 درجه و در همان تراز محاسبه و ترسیم گردید. بررسی و مقایسه جبهه های ماشینی با خروجی تابع جبهه زایی و تصاویر ماهواره، نشان دهنده صحت روش شناسایی عددی جبهه می باشد. مقایسه نتایج جبهه زایی در جبهه های سرد و گرم، نشان دهنده واداشت مقادیر مثبت بیشینه جبهه زایی توسط جبهه های سرد نسبت به جبهه های گرم می باشد. همچنین بررسی موقعیت جبهه های سرد و گرم در سامانه چرخندی نشان داد که این جبهه ها، اغلب در پایین دست ناوه و بالا دست پشته سطوح فوقانی یافت می شوند و در مواجهه با ارتفاعات غربی ایران پسروی نموده و تغییر شکل داده اند. نتایج نشان دهنده نقش بارزتر جبهه های سرد در شکل گیری و تحول سامانه چرخندی می باشند.

    کلیدواژگان: تابع شناسایی جبهه، TFP، آستانه، تابع جبهه زایی، جبهه سرد، سامانه چرخندی
  • خلیل ولیزاده کامران*، سودابه نامداری صفحات 427-446

    در سال های اخیر به دلیل خشک شدن تدریجی بخش هایی از دریاچه ارومیه، کانون های متعددی از ریزگردهای نمکی در این مناطق تشکیل شده و منجر به پراکنش حجم عظیمی از ذرات نمک به مناطق اطراف خود شده است. نمک آزاد شده در اتمسفر به عنوان یکی از انواع مهم ریزگرد های اتمسفری سلامت عموم، کیفیت هوا، توزان انرژی زمین و چرخه هیدرولوژی را تحت تاثیر قرار می دهد. بنابراین با توجه به اهمیت آثار منفی ریزگردهای نمکی و همچنین روند روبه افزایش حضور این ریزگردها در منطقه آگاهی از توزیع زمانی- مکانی ریزگردها برای کمی کردن این اثرات بسیار مهم می باشد. در این مطالعه تلاش شده است تغییرات غلظت ریزگردها در حوضه تحت نفوذ ریزگردهای دریاچه ارومیه ،با استفاده از داده های ماهانه  AOD سنجنده MODIS  ارزیابی شود. برای رسیدن به این هدف نمودار روند تغییرات AOD در طول سال های 2000 تا 2015 به تفکیک محدوده استان های آذربایجان شرقی و آذربایجان غربی استخراج شد. نتایج این پژوهش نشان داد نمودارها در استان های آذربایجان شرقی و آذربایجان غربی روند مشابهی داشته اند و علی رغم وجود نوسانات سال به سال، روند افزایش کلی در غلظت ریزگردها دیده می شود. تغییرات افزایشی ریزگردها در اواخر فصل گرم و اوایل فصل سرد (آگوست، سپتامبر، اکتبر و نوامبر) بسیار بارزتر می باشد و به نظر می رسد با افزایش بارش های فصل سرد و بارش های بهاره شیب تغییرات افزایشی AOD نیز کمتر شده است. همچنین با توجه به نقشه های میانگین سالانه توزیع مکانی AOD، دریاچه ارومیه تا سال 2008 با جذب ریزگردها تاثیر زیادی در کاهش ریزگردهای وارد شده از جنوب غربی منطقه به استان آذربایجان شرقی داشته است، این در حالی است که از سال 2009 در محدوده دریاچه ارومیه افزایش نسبی ریزگرد نسبت به سایر مناطق در استان های آذربایجان شرقی و آذربایجان غربی وجود داشته است.

    کلیدواژگان: ریزگرد های نمکی، دریاچه ارومیه، تغییرات زمانی، مکانی، تصاویر ماهواره ای، AOD
|
  • Seyed Reza Azadeh, Jamal Mohammadi *, Hamid Taher Neshat Dost Pages 1-33
    Introduction 

    In the present world and with the development of cities and urbanization, citizens’ mental health is at risk. In other words, rapid growth of the cities can be considered as one of the threats to the environment which influence the residents of the cities i.e. humans by devastating effects on their soul and body. Studies have shown that the quality of the constructed life environments and urban neighborhoods affects the citizens’ mental health. If we accept that the quality of the constructed environments affects the mental health, in this physical environment housing plays an important role in the indicators of mental health, because people spend much of their time at home and their residential environment. With this approach, this research is mainly aimed at investigating the mutual relationship of different patterns of residential densities on the indicators of the citizens’ mental health in Mardavich neighborhood, Isfahan.

    Methodology

    The main goal of this research is investigating the mutual relationship between quantitative indicators of housing and the citizens’ mental health. In this regards, independent variables include different types of housing patterns, household density in the residential unit, and density of peoples living in a room. Depression and perceived stress are dependant variables of the research. For measuring people’s stress, perceived stress scale by Cohen et al. (1983) was used and for measuring depression, the second edition of depression questionnaire by Beck et al. (BDI-II) was used. The research population includes the households living in Mardavich neighborhood. Regarding the fact that no precise statistics were available, for filling the questionnaires, 250 questionnaires were distributed among the households and at the end, 231 correctly filled questionnaires were gathered.

    Results and Discussion

    One of the independent variables of the research is housing pattern. In this research, the respondents’ homes were analyzed in three classes including house, apartment, and high-rise residential complexes. The results showed that the average depression and perceived stress in houses and apartments are much lower than high-rise residential complexes. Statistically, there is an almost strong relationship between different housing patterns and mental health indicators. The second independent variable of the research is building density. The results of the present research showed that with the increase of building density, the average scores of depression and perceived stress also increase. Statistically, building density has a relationship with the variable of depression with the correlation coefficient of 0.518 and also, it has a relationship with perceived stress with the correlation coefficient of 0.464. The other independent variable of the research is the per capita residential land. The results of the present research showed that there is a negative relationship between the per capita housing and mental health indicators. Actually, with the increase of per capita housing and allocation of more land area to every individual, stress and depression will be decreased. Statistically, the correlations between the indicator of per capita housing and the dependant variables i.e. depression and perceived stress are respectively equal to 0.447 and 0.373. The forth independent variable of the research is the density of people living in a room. According to the obtained results, with the increase of people density in a room, depression and perceived stress will also increase. Statistically, people density in a room has a significant and positive relationship with depression and perceived stress with the respective correlation coefficients of 0.405 and 0.380. In the following, for investigating the fact that which of the independent variables has a stronger effect on perceived stress and depression, modeling of the changes of depression and perceived stress levels is done based on quantitative indicators of housing by stepwise linear regression. According to the results, significance level of F statistics for the indicators of perceived stress and depression is equal to 0.000 in the proposed models. This finding which is the result of regression analysis by variance analysis suggests that the research conceptual model has an appropriate goodness of fit. The results of perceived stress showed that for the changes of this indicator, we can propose a model based on the indicator of building density. It means that of the four independent variables, building density has the strongest effect on perceived stress. Finally based on the proposed model, building density can predict 47 percent of the changes of this indicator. According to the proposed models, the two indicators of building density and people density in a room are introduced as the predictive indicators of the variable of depression. Actually, the results of stepwise linear regression analysis for the variable of depression showed that two models can be proposed for the changes of this variable. In the first model, building density is the only predictive indicator which predicts 51.9 percent of the changes of depression. In the second model, the two indicators of building density and people density in room can respectively predict 42.6 and 16.7 percent of the changes of depression. Conclusion In general, it can be stated that all the independent variables of the research i.e. the quantitative indicators of housing have a significant relationship with mental health indicators i.e. depression and perceived stress. So, this research hypothesis which is consistent with many other works is approved and it suggests that there is a significant relationship between quantitative indicators of housing and mental health indicators. Therefore, by improving the quantitative indicators of housing, people’s mental health can be improved. This fact suggests that the communication between housing planning experts and psychologists should be strengthened more than the past in order to be able to control the negative effect of increased density on mental health indicators.

    Keywords: Housing, Housing Density, Mental Health, stress, Depression. Mardavij Neighborhood, Isfahan
  • Ahmad Asadi * Pages 35-59
    Introduction

    ach form of urban development has its own characteristics and disadvantages or advantages. But the common denominator of all these development patterns has been responding to the growing development of cities and preventing irregular growth. In recent years, with the emergence of new ideas in various political, economic and environmental sciences, the growth and development of cities has become intelligently considered. Internal development is an essential part of smart urban development. Internal urban development policy is one of the three urban development policies that, along with other urban development policies; Connected or continuous development or separate or discontinuous urban development policy is proposed. In parallel with the horizontal growth of the city towards the suburbs and the destruction of lands and natural environment around the city, some spaces inside the city have been abandoned and have been left out of the development process. These abandoned spaces, called "infill-level" spaces, are important because they are located in cities, have underground or day-to-day facilities or equipment, and have access to such service centers and facilities. For example, in many of the old cities of Iran, the core of the city, which is considered in the form of historical and valuable worn-out texture, has such potential. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of infill development strategy on the components of vitality and social desirability in the worn-out tissue of Zanjan city. 

    Methodology

    This research project in nature is an applied investigation and based on methodology is considered attributive- analytical project. Also using GIS techniques and FUZZY-AHP model required maps was provided and in each map Zanjan city’s deteriorated areas infill development specified and in final map under studying area’s internal development characterized as low, average and high developed areas. The questionnaire was used to measure the variables of vitality and social desirability. The sample size is 382 questionnaires that have been selected from the statistical population of worn-out tissue of Zanjan city using Cochran's formula. The research findings show that infill development has a positive effect on promoting vitality and social desirability in worn-out tissues, and there is a significant relationship between infill development with vitality and social desirability variables. Therefore, it can be said that vitality and social desirability are significantly different from infill development (less, medium, high). 

    Results and discussion

    17 items have been selected to measure vitality, and according to descriptive statistics, vitality in the range will increase with increasing level of infill development. The rate of vitality score in neighborhoods with low intermediate growth development is 46.77, in neighborhoods with medium infill development is 52.63 and in neighborhoods with high infill development is 53.82. Also, each of the vivacity items is examined separately. The score of each of the items is between 1 and 6. To measure the level of social desirability, 14 items have been selected. The level of social desirability is improved according to the increase in the rate of infill development, and according to the average score of the social desirability variable, this can be realized. The rate of social desirability score in neighborhoods with low infill development is 44.98, in neighborhoods with medium infill development is 50.66 and in neighborhoods with high infill development is 52.12.

    Conclusion

    In studies of infill development, the potentials of different urban neighborhoods have been examined using the principles of infill development and its relationship with other variables has not been investigated. However, in this study, the relationship between infill development and the variables of vitality and social desirability in the worn-out context of Zanjan city has been investigated, which is a new discussion. This can determine the benefits of infill development. The findings show that the higher the infill development of neighborhoods, the higher the level of vitality and social utility. In the dilapidated context of Zanjan, neighborhoods with high infill development (neighborhoods above Imam Street) are in a better position in terms of quality of life and social acceptance than neighborhoods with low level of infill development (neighborhoods around the Husseinieh Azam Zanjan). Therefore, it can be said that the higher the level of infill development, the better the security, the beauty of urban spaces, the diversity of activities, the physical diversity, the presence of women in the place, the compatible uses, the vitality of the citizens, and so on.

    Keywords: Infill Development, Vitality, social acceptability, deteriorated area, Zanjan City
  • Reza Afrousheh, Ali Akbar Rasoli *, Davod Mokhtari, Tahereh Jalali Pages 61-80
    Introduction 

    Changes in occurrence and frequency of extreme events can have more severe and damage effects than changes in the average climatic characteristics (Choi et al, 2008). Therefore, it is important to study the variability and change the behavior of extreme atmospheric events. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the temperature extreme events using the distribution of generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) and non-parametric methods in Kermanshah province. The results of this study can be effective in providing the necessary context for assessing the extent of vulnerability and adaptation methods and strategies to deal with it.

    Methodology 

    The study area in the present study is Kermanshah province. Because to study the extreme events, the length of the statistical period should be long-term, so in this study, the data of Kermanshah synoptic station, which has a statistical period of 56 years (1961-2016), was used. First, the maximum and minimum daily temperature data for the study period were obtained from the Meteorological Organization of the country and after reconstructing the incomplete data, the quality of the data was checked. The data series were first analyzed by trend and then analyzed by frequency of boundary events. To study and analyze the trend of marginal events, the indicators presented by the National Climate Committee of the World Meteorological Organization and the Climate Change and Prediction Research Program, called ETCCDMI, have been used. In total, the group provided 16 main indices with a major emphasis on temperature limits that can be extracted from a series of recorded daily data (Zhang et al., 2006: 2014.(

    Results and Discussion

    Generalized Extreme Value Distribution The present study aimed to analyze the changes in temperature extreme events in the study period using generalized extreme value distribution in Kermanshah province. According to the statistics and information of meteorological stations, this region has a drastic change in terms of climate and is affected every year by dry days without successive rains on the one hand or sudden heavy rains on the other, with a sharp rise or fall in temperature. The results of the Maxima block methods showed that in the study area, the intensity and frequency of cold border events decreased and the intensity and frequency of hot border events increased. Warm nights mean an increase in the percentage of days when the minimum daily temperature is above 90 and hot days mean a percentage of days when the maximum daily temperature is above 90 ‌. The incremental trend is the highest annual value of the minimum daily temperature at the 95% level. The slope of the trend line for the index is 0.04 C in the decade.

    Conclusion 

    The results showed that concerning cold extreme indices such as frost days, ice days, cold days and nights, the direction of change is negative and with hot extreme indices such as summer days, tropical nights, nights and Hot days the direction of change is positive with a confidence level of 99 percent. Since the rate of increase of the minimum temperature was higher than the maximum temperature, the range of the day and night temperature in the region has decreased. Also, graphs of the values ​​of minimum and maximum temperature polynomials in years of return T with a 95 percent confidence interval were plotted. According to the above diagrams, we can estimate the extreme values ​​of the desired parameter for the specified return period.

    Keywords: Generalized Extreme Values Distribution, Extreme Events, Extreme temperatures, Return Period, Kermanshah
  • Rahmat Bahrami * Pages 81-103
    Introduction

    Development texts show that there are several ways to achieve development. Much of the village's economy is dependent on agriculture, and due to low land and labor productivity, agriculture alone is not the ultimate solution to the problem of unemployment or job creation. The high growth rate of the rural population and the wave of migration have doubled the problems of unemployment and job creation. Statistical surveys in the country show that the most important factor in the migration of villagers to cities is economic poverty. Numerous programs have been developed in Iran in recent years to overcome developmental bottlenecks, and the results show that, with few exceptions, they have failed in many areas and failed to achieve rural development goals. Therefore, economic development experts believe that strengthening economic foundations by focusing on activating the production cycle in rural areas and creating employment and entrepreneurship can pave the way out of the crisis of rural development. Today, the focus of economic development policies is on expanding small rural businesses (rural industries) as a way to achieve rural development. The drafting of such a law is a strategy to counter the rising unemployment rate and the migration process of villagers on the one hand, and the sustainability of the rural population through job creation in various dimensions of development, including the development of rural industries. Such ideas in the rural area could potentially be the driving force and accelerator in the rural economy. The article deals with the impact of rural industries on economic development and job creation in the local economy of Sanandaj villages. The importance of rural industries in Sanandaj is that on the one hand, rural industries reflect the cultural heritage of the village, and on the other hand, rural industries can empower rural households to increase their production capacity, productivity, welfare and quality of life. Be helpful. Research Questions: What is the development of rural industries and economic development and job creation in the villages of the study area? The development of rural industries in the study area has had the greatest impact on the factor of economic and social development?

    Methodology

    The research is applied in terms of purpose, descriptive-analytical in terms of method. Theoretical studies have been compiled through documentary methods, field data through questionnaires. The interview method was also used to analyze and complete the data. The number of target villages, including 9 villages in the central part and Klaterzan of Sanandaj city, which has been engaged in the work of rural industries, has been studied. The statistical population of the study included 815 households with a population of 26620 people in 9 villages of Sanandaj city, which were distributed in Klatarzan and Markazi districts (Statistics Center of Iran, 2016). The sample size included all 115 families employed in rural industries. The type of activity of rural industries includes carpet weaving, kilim weaving, tailoring, weaving, carpentry, carpentry, etc. In order to investigate the effects of rural industry development in two economic and social components, a total of 10 indicators and 43 variables were measured using a 5-choice Likert scale questionnaire based on mean method, standard deviation and change coefficient. To ensure the design of the questionnaire, Cronbach's alpha was used and the reliability coefficient was 82 /. It has been obtained that the validity of the questionnaire has been confirmed based on the views of experts related to the village.

    Results and discussion

    Data were analyzed to explain the economic and social dimensions with the approach of job creation in Sanandaj villages from the average method, percentage calculation of options, method of coefficient of change and standard deviation. The inferential results of analyzing the economic and social dimensions of the development of local industries on rural development showed that 24 variables were studied in economic dimensions and 19 variables in social dimensions. The results showed that the economic average was 3.35. In terms of impact factor, it was divided into three groups. In economic dimensions, 9 variables with high impact factor, the second group with average impact coefficient of 11 variables and the third group with 4 variables, which were recognized as weak impact factor. In the social dimensions, 11 variables were evaluated with an average of 3.4. Of these, 6 variables with high impact factor, the second group with 8 variables with medium effect coefficient and the third group with 5 variables showed the least impact.

    Conclusion

    Establishing rural industries as a productive economic sector in such a situation where the country is in economic sanctions is a good opportunity to develop a resilient economy and an important step in adjusting income between urban and rural areas, increasing income and social welfare and attracting surplus rural forces. . Research in line with Article 27 of the Sixth Development Plan of the country in the field of economic development and job creation in rural areas has examined the role of rural industries in economic and social development with the approach of job creation in rural areas of Sanandaj city. Rural industries can have a significant impact on job creation, income generation for low-income rural people, and reduced immigration. Therefore, the development of rural industries is one of the best options for economic development and rural employment. To identify the impact factor of data in social and economic dimensions, they were divided into three groups: high, medium and low, and were ranked according to the average data method. The purpose of this method is twofold: first, through high results, clear strengths and through low coefficients, in fact, the challenging points express the development of rural industries. The results of the research strengths showed that the influential variables in rural industries, such as reducing the level of poverty, increasing the level of participation, reducing the level of unemployment and reducing migration have had the greatest impact. On the other hand, the challenges and weaknesses of rural industry development can be solved in variables such as lack of access to educational institutions in updating and prosperity of rural industries, low level of skills and their non-emergence, lack of workshops and lack of social security insurance. It is considered major.

    Keywords: Village, Sanandaj, rural industries, Economic development, job creation
  • Saeed Jahanbakhsh, Ali Mohammad Khorshiddoust, Hamid Mirhashemi * Pages 105-128
    Introduction

    Due to their height, geometry and orientation, the mountains affect the atmospheric currents. Therefore, mountains cause the formation, intensification or weakening of many atmospheric phenomena. One of the most obvious of these phenomena is lee cyclogenesis whose formation and evolution is subject to interaction between mountains and atmospheric currents. The lee sides of mesoscale or large-scale mountains, such as the Alps, Rocky Mountains, the East Asian mountains and the Andes, are favorable regions of cyclogenesis. This type of cyclogenesis is known as lee cyclogenesis, and can be defined as the formation of a cyclone with strong positive vertical vorticity or an appreciable fall in pressure with a closed circulation formed in the lee of a mountain that then drifts away (Chung. et al, 1976). In this regard, most studies have been made about the lee cyclogenesis of the Alps and the Rocky Mountains. As a result, the general understanding of mechanism of lee cyclogenesis is derived from studies conducted on these two mountains and partially due to the Alpine Experiment (ALPEX) field project held in 1982. In other words, the general framework of the mechanisms that exists today about lee cyclogenesis is based on the results obtained from the study of the Alps and the Rocky Mountains.

    Methodology

    The variables used in this study are consists of horizontal wind speed (u and v), vertical wind speed vertical pressure coordinates (w), temperature (T) geopotential pressure levels (z). The data variables used 1 and 0.5 degrees in the horizontal and vertical distance of 50 hPa from 1000 to 200 hPa. The data were extracting from the archival database ECMWF ERA Interim version with six-hour monitoring. Preliminary investigations showed that unstable systems under certain elevation models are located in the middle of the atmosphere in the region of the west, northwest of the west and west to the upstream slopes of the Zagros Mountains. so that the study of middle - level maps showed how the trough and the ridge of such systems has played an important role in determining the direction and movement of these systems towards zagros because it is different in terms of the confluence or diffluence system, curvature and sheer vorticity advection and ageostrophic wind of the trough, and finally the direction in the trough. In general, the conditions prevailing on these systems and the it direction they pass through to the Zagros have an important role in how they interact with the zagros. Therefore, it is necessary to examine how these systems approach to Zagros. For this purpose, this important issue was further investigated using the ageostrophic wind equation. Because the ageostrophic wind indicates the imbalance of geostrophic, and in fact the change of wind both in space and time causes this imbalance of geostrophic and the creation of the ageostrophic wind (Lynch and Cassano 2006, 123). Also used curvature vorticity in the natural coordinates, quasi-geostrophic height tendency equation and divergence of the isallobaric wind.

    Results and discussion

    An examination of the maps of the lower atmospheric levels shows that in some cases the cyclones approaching the windward slopes of the Zagros, under the baroclinic wave’s atmosphere, lead to the formation of a secondary rotation in the lee ward Zagros. Therefore, it is necessary to have a primary cyclone on the windward slope of the Zagros Mountains to form the lee cyclone. So the detection of cyclone approaching windward of the Zagros Mountains shows that cyclones which move and even higher than the Mediterranean latitude to the east, would have approached the Zagros in a way that was accompanied by a pattern of confluence ridge - diffluence trough in the middle of the atmosphere. While the cyclones, accompanied by a trough, were moving northward along the path of their eastward before reaching the Zagros in the north east. On the other hand, the cyclons, formed in the Red Sea region or Sudan, were required to reach the Zagros Mountains (the maximum velocity at the base of the trough) or the diffluence trough to approach the zagros. At the same time, the cyclones that were located in the area were under a confluence trough, never moved to the Zagros Mountains. So, according to the latitude of the primary cyclone and how the stack - trough is the level of 500 hpa, the path of the approaching Zagros is different. However, in many cases the nature of the trough and the level of the level of 500 hpa on the path of the eastward movement changes from difflunce to confluence and vice versa, which occurs due to the changing location in the baroclinic wave.

    Conclusion

    Because The Zagros Mountains create changes in approaching baroclinicity waves causes advent thermal anomaly and consequently cause the occurrence of cyclone, so, such cyclogenesis  is interpreted adjust according to the theory modify baroclinicity waves. Because this theory clearly states that mountain lead to lee cyclogenesis by modify baroclinicity. It is worth noting that many of the much complexities of the relationship between the Zagros Mountains and baroclinicity waves that may cause the occurrence of cyclones are a variety of other theories proposed in the literature to be more consistent Atmospheric Sciences. In any case, this study is based on small portions and a special kind of cyclogenesis can be in the Zagros leeward.

    Keywords: Lee Cyclogenesis, Occluded Front, potential vorticity, confluence, diffluence
  • Seyyed Asadallah Hejazi *, Masoumeh Rajabi, Asma Sharbaf Behtash Pages 129-150
    Introduction

    Tourism is one of the activities that demand for it is increasing. Tourism as a non-smoking industry, has less destructive environmental impacts but for some, tourism is an important threat to cultural and biological diversity. This idea caused the concept of sustainable tourism development and the forms of alternative tourism to be raised. For this reason, the development of ecotourism as a form of alternative tourism is essential for achieving the goals of sustainable tourism development.Identifying and planning the suitable ecotourism areas as an effective tool and solution can play an essential role in sustainable tourism development. Although Iran has a variety of natural attractions, but it hasn't been able to make good use of this advantage. One of the most suitable ecotourism areas in Iran and East Azerbaijan Province is the Northern Slopes of Bozghoush Mountains. This area has a lot of natural attractions such as high peaks, numerous hot springs and green spaces which can be a destination for hiking, adventure tourism, ski, water therapy and leisure activities. In spite of such attractions, none of these activities is known in the real sense; on the other hand, comprehensive planning has not been done in this area. Although several tourists go to the northern slopes of Bozghoush Mountain in spring and summer but there isn't any suitable infrastructures in this area.  This indicates the necessity of investigating in this region and the main thing for encouraging investors is identifying, prioritizing and informing them. Such actions lie in the context of scientific research. So far, several studies has been done on geomorphology and geology of this region but there hasn't been any study to identify suitable ecotourism areas. The present study has aimed to reach this goal. The goal of this study is identifying the ecotourism capabilities of the northern slopes of Bozghoush Mountain using Vikor technique in order to identify the most suitable areas for ecotourism activities.

    Methodology

    The research method of this study is descriptive-analytical and in terms of purpose, it is practical. In order to achieve the research goals, the most important criteria of site selection for mountaineering, hiking and ski was identified by library research and expert survey, and then the weight of each criteria was determined by the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). In the following, in order to integrate layers in ArcGIS, VIKOR method has been used. To determine the final weight of the criteria, a questionnaire was designed and it has been filled by 30 experts. The experts were familiar with both the AHP method and the features of study area. Five questionnaire were corrupted and 25 of them were valid. The hierarchy structure was formed in the Expert Choice. Then the data obtained from questionnaire which was a pairwise comparison, was added to the software. In the following, in order to integrate layers in ArcGIS, VIKOR method has been used. Finally, by overlaying the maps of mountaineering, hiking and ski, the most suitable areas of ecotourism was determined.

    Conclusion 

    The northern slopes of Bouzghoush Mountain located in East Azerbaijan Province have high ecotourism potential, which allows tourists to do activities such as mountaineering, hiking and ski. In the present study, in order to site selection and prioritize the ecotourism areas, the activities were divided into three types and evaluated by Vikor technique. Various criteria were selected by literature review and weighted in Expert choice using AHP method. Finally maps of mountaineering, hiking and ski were obtained and by overlaying the maps, the final map of suitable ecotourism areas was achieved. The results show that in terms of suitable site selection of ecotourism, 15.43 percent of area is in very suitable condition, 35.52 percent in suitable condition, 39.91 percent in average condition and 9.14 percent in unsuitable condition. The most suitable area covers the hot springs of Asbforoushan and Allah Hagh, as well as Jelda Bakhan and Ardeha villages. These sites tops the list of priorities for development.

    Keywords: Ecotourism, Site selection, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Vikor, Northern Slopes of Bozghoush Mountains
  • Farnoush Khorasani Zadeh, Hamid Saberi *, Mehdi Momeni, Mienajaf Mousavi Pages 151-181
    Intoduction 

    Vitality is the desire of citizens to be active and dynamic in urban environments, which makes urban spaces more prosperous and crowded and increases the presence of citizens in public spaces. So far, little attention has been paid to the vitality of urban environments in studies, research and design projects of new cities in Iran. Cities are considered to be the most important political, technological, artistic, cultural and social fruits of human beings, and urban spaces of cities are the most important parts that shape the city. In the meantime, it is important to pay attention to the psychological and physical well-being of human beings. The development of today's cities has generally sacrificed this point for its physical growth and development. Today, one of the most important concerns in designing public spaces in the city is the vibrancy of these places, which continues the presence of citizens. Variety of uses can be mentioned as one of the most important factors in attracting people to this place, but at the same time, this factor alone cannot cause vitality and dynamism of the space. Other factors influencing the vitality of an urban space include cultural, social, and environmental factors.

    Methology 

    The present research is descriptive in terms of practical purpose and analytical in terms of nature and descriptive method. Analysis has been used using descriptive statistics and inferential tests (T-test and analysis of variance) and differences and correlations between indicators using structural equation model.The statistical population of this study includes all citizens living in 4 regions of Isfahan, which according to the 2016 census, was 452453 people. The Cochran's formula was estimated to be 95% reliable with a sample size of 584 people. The statistical sample of the study is half of the residents and half of the tourists in the period of January 1996 to June 1997 present in the public spaces of 4 areas of the 15 districts located in the central part of the city and most tourists use these places as territory.

    Results and discussion

    Given that with improved security, and physical identity and attractiveness, vitality also improves. To measure the difference between the two independent groups of citizens and tourists on the average of a (quantitative) livability variable, the T test was used with independent samples. The results showed that the statistical value of t to compare the rate of vitality in public spaces in central Isfahan from the citizens' point of view. Tourists are equal to -0.630, and the probability of their significant study is 0.0529, which is higher than 0.05, so with 0.95 confidence, zero statistical assumption that the rate of vitality in public spaces is equal. Central Isfahan is approved from the point of view of citizens and tourists. As a result, the average livelihood is the same for citizens and tourists.

    Conclusion

    Vitality is the tendency of citizens to be active and dynamic in urban environments, which makes urban spaces more prosperous and crowded and increases the presence of citizens in public spaces. Vitality is one of the most important constructive qualities of urban spaces to improve the quality of urban spaces and create space.The descriptive and inferential results of the research have been analyzed using SPSS and AMOS software and the results of the hypothesis test showed that based on the results of the structural equation model, the effect of security on vitality is 0.221 and this coefficient has a significant effect . (Coefficient t is greater than 1.96) so the first hypothesis is confirmed. This means that with improved security, vitality also improves. The effect of identity on vitality is 0.854, and this coefficient has a significant effect (coefficient t more than 1.96), so the second hypothesis is confirmed. This means that with the improvement of identity, vitality also improves. The effect of physical attractiveness on vitality is 0.170 and this coefficient has a significant effect (coefficient t is more than 1.96) so the third hypothesis is confirmed. This means that as physical attractiveness improves, so does vitality. The level of vitality in public spaces in the central areas of Isfahan is confirmed from the point of view of citizens and tourists. As a result, the average livelihood is the same for citizens and tourists.

    Keywords: Vitality, public spaces, tourists, Isfahan city, citizens
  • Mahsa Khosh Sima *, Akbar Asgharei Zamani, Shahrivar Rostaei Pages 183-204
    Introduction

    Considering the occurrence of scattered phenomena in the cities of Iran, the need for re-planning on land and housing in old textures has doubled. In fact, urban sprawling growth shows that the city's population growth is lower than the physical development of the city. Infill development provides the best opportunity to maintain outdoor space and optimize the use of existing infrastructure. And at the same time, by promoting identity in areas where abandoned land is redeveloped, while providing housing, especially for the low income, can provide a model for urban development policies, especially in the housing sector. In general, issues such as the lack of land, the destruction of agricultural land and gardens due to the excessive spread of cities, the energy crisis, air pollution, informal settlements, the spread of cities on hazardous areas and faults and social anomalies, including issues Which make it imperative to pay attention to the infill and sustained development approach in the housing sector.

    Methodology 

     Thus, in this study to investigate the role of infill development at renovation of Hokm Abad region of Tabriz old texture we applied spatial analysis. By calculating the indexes of infill development and old texture and corresponding maps, the final map of Infill development in the neighborhood with 95% confidence level came out. In addition, there are street network restrictions for infill development the relationship of which is also being approved through a map to exclude the respective problems, to come out of a state of exhaustion and regain its life as before.

    Result and discussion

    The overall results of this article suggest that:There is a high talent for the development of vacant land between existing parts (10% of the total land), which can be used for residential development by increasing the use of the density of buildings and increasing the use of lateral land uses of housing land use. Considering that neighborhood development has taken place at the Horizontal surface can Aggregate of fine-grained pieces, which accounts for over 50% of the area in question, the existing construction density can be increased. According to the buildings' life plans, the materials used, the quality of the building, most buildings need to be fully renovated and restored. In the new rebuilding, the principles and criteria for infill development should be considered as an example of the new urban planning principles, so be build new development based on the human scale, neighborhood the centerpiece with a distinctive center and edges with the ability to walk and bike ride. According to population density map 1.3, the population increase can be done in empty spaces and points marked on the population density map. Most of the transit network in the Hakam Abad district of Tabriz are organic and have not complied with the relevant rules and regulations that should be amended in new constructions Improved passageways and extensions of less than 6 meters, and attention should be paid to the rules for the extension of old texture tracks transit of at least 8 meters (Local access).

    Conclusion 

    New towns are creating unbridled areas around the large cities and metropolitan regions witnessing, the sprawl development, the increase of urban costs, and finally untold magnitude of urban and urban management facing up complexity and trouble. And the creation of new towns cannot lead to the important goal of attracting new towns not only in the metropolis crowd overspill, but Some have not yet reached the stage of exploitation after some years. According to this issue the focus should be on the managers agenda and municipal officials rather than the urban sprawl development around the cities The spreading cause of fertile agricultural lands can blight available (old textures) usage, The decline of urban life in urban centers revives the past new towns are creating unbridled around the large cities. This matter causes sprawl development, the increase of urban costs, and finally untold magnitude of urban and urban management facing up complexity and trouble. And The creation of new towns cannot lead to the important goal of attracting new towns not only in the metropolis crowd overspill, but the operational out comes as well. According to this issue the focus should be on the managers agenda and municipal officials rather than the urban sprawl development around the cities the spreading cause of fertile agricultural lands can blight available (old textures) usage. Therefore, infill development and utilizing existing capacities can help solve problems both in terms of exhaustion and lack of services, and infrastructure and Superstructures. It can resolve to promote awkward urban development discipline.

    Keywords: Old Textures, Infill Development, Spatial Analysis, Hokm Abad Region of Tabriz
  • HABIBEH NAGHIZADEH *, Ali Mohammad Khorshiddoust, Rashid Saeidabadi, Mohammadsaeid Najafi Pages 205-224
    Introduction Today, one of the most important issues in the field of climatology is air pollution and its relationship to the general circulation of the atmosphere. The atmosphere around the planet Earth is made up of gases called fixed atmosphere gases. Humans and all living things are accustomed to this composition of the atmosphere and have adapted to it. Any changes in the quality and quantity of these elements can be considered as air pollution. Therefore, since the main cause of all changes in the characteristics of the human environment is related to changes in atmospheric pressure, so in all climate-related studies, the first step is to identify patterns of air masses. Anti-cyclonic circulation patterns, both at the Earth's surface and in the upper atmosphere, create sunny weather, leading to temperature inversion and subsequent air pollution, especially in densely populated and industrial cities. In winter, when these inversions are stronger, hot air on the cold air acts like a cap that prevents air mixing. Thus, urban areas have a strong potential to face serious problems of air pollution as a result of a combination of limited conditioning of air and emission of pollutants from high atmospheric levels. Atmosphere in terms of temperature inversion is associated with minimum air mixture and stable conditions. So the highest density in the direction of the wind extends from the source of diffusion. Methodology For the recognition and extraction of the synoptic patterns affecting the temperature inversion in Tabriz city, we initially prepared the data records on the temperature inversion for the time period of 2001-2010 by the use of upper atmosphere station data. This was followed by the utilization of digital data on sea surface pressure as daily mean from the reanalyzed data series of NCEP/NCAR in the eastern longitudes of 10°-60° and the latitudes of 10°-90° in 651 pixels of 2.5/2.5 degrees. With the PCA analysis on the data of sea surface data pressure in the days having temperature inversion, we reduced their volume and carrying out cluster analysis on the obtained components we recognized the most important atmospheric patterns and through which the map of each pattern was drawn. Results and discussion Based on the results of cluster analysis on the matrix of factor scores in this study, the occurrence of temperature inversion in the city of Tabriz is due to the domination of four consecutive patterns. The general characteristics of these patterns are as follows. 1- In general, in the hot period of the year, the high-pressure pattern of Migrant Europe is the most important system in the formation of temperature inversions. In this pattern, languages from the highlands to the western shores of the Caspian Sea are advancing, and due to the presence of a mid-level ridge, it is possible to strengthen the anticyclone core at sea level and thus create a stable atmosphere. With the dominance of the downward process of air, the stability of the earth's surface air and the possibility of inversion formation in the warm period of the year intensify. Two summer patterns, which have been associated with the establishment of a high-pressure pattern on the northwest and in some cases with a low pressure on the Persian Gulf, have caused the upheavals of this period of the year.2 - In other patterns that have occurred more in the cold season, the surface stable layer due to the penetration of the tabs of Anti-cyclonic systems including high-pressure Siberian and European Migrant Europe high-pressure is done alone or in combination and in some cases with high-pressure Migrant Europe. North pressure is also present on the map, which is exacerbated by the Convection of cold weather. Despite the process of air fall due to the dominance of the convergence region of the mid-level convergence creates deep inversions and sometimes double-layer. In these patterns, the thickness of the inversion layer is low and the temperature difference between the peak and the base is high, which indicates the acute conditions of inversion to create air pollution. This phenomenon is likely to occur in any season. But its severity, which depends on synoptic factors. Conclusion The most important factor in causing temperature inversion in most cases is how to arrange the dominant pressure patterns, In this Patterns the cold weather due to the presence high pressure system expanded in the surface with the establishment Left side of a deep trough over the region, the cold air has diffused from higher latitudes on Tabriz and strong sustainability has been created in vertical column of the atmosphere. In cases of being cause the Northern low pressure along with pressure-immigrant Europe for the spread of a cold into the region. The warm air of lower latitudes has been placed over the cold air of ground by domination of a deep ridge over the region. Therefore the intensity of stability increased and severe temperature inversion into the air near the surface formed.
    Keywords: Circulation patterns, PCA, Clustering, Temperature Inversion, Tabriz
  • Hashem Rostamzadeh, Aliakbar Rasuly, Majid Wazifedoust, Nasser Maleki * Pages 225-245
    Introduction

    Floods are a natural occurrence that causes casualties, livestock losses and damage to buildings, facilities, gardens, fields and natural resources every year. Therefore, rainfall estimates have long been considered by researchers in various fields, and along with the advancement of science and the emergence of new technologies, many advances have been made in the methods of rainfall estimation and evaluation and validation to achieve the best method. In the last twenty years, there has been a lot of progress in rainfall estimation methods. This advancement is due to the possibility of using a lot of information from different parts of the world, better understanding of atmospheric phenomena, exchanges and atmospheric rotations, improving the performance of models, progress in various surveillance tools such as radar and satellite and computer power. The methods used to estimate precipitation, especially in the short term, have shortcomings and are generally based on numerical forecasting models or the use of empirical analyzes, which are usually not very accurate for multi-hour intervals, so the use of satellite data It has been recommended as a supplement to address this problem, and doing so could greatly help increase the accuracy of numerical models for rainfall estimates.

    Methodology

    The study used the physical properties of a cloud of five waves between 2011 and 2015. The data of the second generation of MSG meteorological satellite has good coverage on different regions of Iran. The satellite has 12 channels on the region and produces accurate products. Some of these products are in line with the physical properties of the cloud used in this study. These products are produced daily every 15 minutes and include cloud peak pressure (CTP), cloud peak temperature (CTT), cloud light depth (COT), thermodynamic cloud phase (CPH), and the volume of water in the cloud. Density (CWP) ‌ are the effective radius of cloud droplets (REFF) and cloud type (CT). Was obtained. The criterion for the accuracy of the calculations was the two MAE statistics Equation 1: Equation 2:

    Results and discussion

    In this study, TRMM satellite data was considered as control data. After receiving TRMM images in MATLAB software environment, programming was performed and precipitation data were extracted from NETCDF files. After extracting TRMM satellite data, Meteosat satellite products were prepared through the CMSAF database and their data were extracted using MATLAB software code. In the study of waves, the coefficient of determination in the GPR model was 0.72 in the experimental section and 0.77 in the training section. In the TD model, the determination coefficient is calculated in the experimental section 0.64 and in the training section 0.87. However, in the neural network model, the coefficient of determination is 0.68 in the experimental section and 0.72 in the training section. The results show a good relationship between the components studied. Investigating the Effects of Cloud Physical Properties: One of the methods for determining the effectiveness of each of the physical properties of the cloud in estimating rainfall is the sensitivity analysis method. After calculating the coefficient of determination and the error coefficient, the sensitivity of each of the physical properties in estimating the precipitation was performed by the method of calculating the sensitivity analysis. Sensitivity analysis was calculated for all waves. Calculations show that the cloud type is most effective, followed by the effective radius of the cloud droplets and then the optical depth of the cloud in the second and third positions, respectively. Among the physical properties studied, the lowest effect is related to the cloud phase. To investigate the relationship between the physical characteristics of the cloud and the amount of precipitation, five waves of pervasive precipitation were selected between 2011 and 2015. Rainfall data from the region's stations were extracted. In order to validate the TRMM data, a comparison was made between the precipitation data of the selected stations and the precipitation of this satellite. Metoost satellite products were used to extract the physical properties of the cloud. After extracting the data, the physical properties of the cloud were matched to the time scale of the data and evaluated using TRMM satellite rain as a control.

    Conclusion 

    The selection criteria were such that the waves lasted for at least two days and covered the entire area. On the day of the operation, the precipitation information of the meteorological stations of the region was obtained and also the precipitation information of TRMM satellite was extracted. In order to validate the data of TRMM satellite, the information of meteorological stations was compared with TRMM precipitation and obtained the necessary correlation. In order to get a better result, the matching of numbers was done in terms of time scale. In the next step, using the meteosat satellite products, the physical properties of the cloud were obtained for all waves. Data were extracted at all stages for each pixel. Then the data correlation matrix was performed with three models of GPR, TD and MLPBR, the results of which are given in Table One. Due to the use of different models as well as the study of 8 physical properties of the cloud, the results show a high relationship between the components of the study, so that the coefficient of determination in the GPR model for the experimental and training sections was 0.7 and 0.77, respectively. These coefficients for the TD model in the experimental and training sections are 0.64 and 0.87, respectively. In the artificial network model (MLPBR), the coefficients obtained in the experimental and training sections are 0.68 and 0.72, respectively. The numbers obtained indicate a relatively good relationship between the components. Sensitivity analysis was performed. Sensitivity analysis results show that the cloud type feature has the greatest effect on precipitation and then the effective radius of cloud droplets and then cloud light depth are in the second and third positions, respectively. Among the physical properties studied, the lowest effect is related to the cloud phase.

    Keywords: Meteosat Satelite, MSG, TRMM, cloud physical components, Artificial neural network, West of Iran
  • Mohammad Omidfar * Pages 247-266
    Introduction

    Considering the problem of continuous reduction of the water amount of urmian Lake, Identifying the distribution of rainfall in the basin area of Lake has a particular importance from the point of view of climate and hydrology. Doppler weather radar has an ability of the estimating of intensity and the accumulation of daily rainfall with suitable spatial and diurnal resolutions. In current study, radar rainfall data, observed at the Sahand station, were evaluated with 10 synoptic weather stations data inside the Urmia Lake Basin exampling some of intensive rainfall events. The compared models show that among synoptic stations Tabriz, Shabestar, Sahand, Urmia, and Bostanabad have a best fit with radar daily rainfall productions, having high-quality conformity in northwest of the study area. In contrast, low level of agreements between two sets of radar has been observed in mountainous area.Due to the problem of continuous decreasing volume of Urmian lake water, accurate identification of the temporal distribution of rainfall can be very important from climatic and hydrological points of view. There are various ways to measure or estimate rainfall. Synoptic stations have a relatively low efficiency compared to radar and satellite due to their point and number limitation, relative to the area of the study area and other influential factors such as weather and human error. Tabriz Doppler Radar is one of the 12 radars of the National Radar Network of the Meteorological Organization of Iran, which works in the frequency band of Doppler C-type radars. The aim of this study was to investigate the efficacy and accuracy of radar-distance measurement tools in the study of heavy precipitation, which due to the infancy and lack of similar studies, the results can be used in future research.

    Methodology

     The accumulative precipitation data of synoptic stations in the studied area and the product of the daily accumulative precipitation of Tabriz Doppler radar, which is produced by the radar equation, by converting the echo-return intensity of precipitation, have been used. In this study, the data of accumulative precipitation of synoptic stations of the study area and the product of daily accumulative precipitation of Tabriz Doppler radar have been used. With the help of radar software, the product of surface precipitation intensity is produced in a 24-hour period and its temporal resolution is 15 minutes. Other product specifications such as start time, spatial resolution, and maximum distance, frequency of repetition of sent waves, name of the saved file, color scale of the data and the name of the radar site next to the product are listed.Radar accumulative rainfall on the most severe rainy day in Urmia Lake basin , the distance from the site of the radar site (concentric circles with a distance of 50 km from each other) and the location of the stations studied. Also, to compare the difference in estimation between radar and stations, error estimation indicators such as: mean error, absolute error mean, mean square error and Pearson correlation coefficient were used.

    Results and discussion

     The October 14 to 21, 2014 heavy rainfall in Urmia Lake basin has been studied by various radar products and among them 24-hour collective rain product, due to compliance with the cumulative rainfall data of stations, for 10 synoptic stations around Lake Urmia. Due to the collision of the waves with mountains, the topography of the area has a significant impact on the accuracy of radar estimation. They are considered invisible spots; these points causes a lot of errors (in some cases even up to 100%). Therefore, to compare radar data with the station, the accuracy of the separate precipitation estimate at different stations was examined.

    Conclusion

    The 24-hour accumulative precipitation comparison of the stations northwest of Urmia (for the cities of Tabriz, Sahand and Shabestar)with radar estimates on the days of heavy rains in October 2014, was highly consistent and the only difference in radar estimates on 20 and 21 days, was about 5 mm that less than Measured by synoptic stations. The correlation coefficient between the data is 0.996, which confirms the closeness of the measurement values of the two methods. The remarkable point in the chart is the significant difference and jump in rainfall on October 19 compared to other days. An examination of the graphs of the cities of Salmas and Urmia in the west and Bostanabad in the east of Urmia Lake shows less accurate but acceptable estimates of rainfall and differs.

    Conclusion

    The comparative graph of rainfall in the Ajabshir city, despite its proximity to the radar site (50 km from the radar), shows a relatively large difference between the radar estimates and the stations. The most important cause of the error is the orientation of the southern Sahand Mountain. In moving to the more southern areas, the radar accuracy is lower, but the comparative rain chart of Ajabshir city, despite its proximity to the radar site, shows a significant difference. Overall, the results shows that: the southern regions, both due to the large distance from the radar and blocking effect of radar waves, almost all of the return waves are weakened from the targets and the radar estimates the amount of precipitation zero.

    Keywords: intensive rainfall, Dopler Radar, evaluation, Urmian Lake Basin, Beam Blocking Effect
  • Vahid Riahi *, Farhad Azizpour, Zari Ghasemian Pages 267-291
    Introduction

    In each country, Development in rural areas requires coherent planning and coordination that Derived from the dominant ideology and accepted by the Stakeholders of development.  Studies have shown that in many countries, particularly in developed and even developing countries visioning has been an initial step for planning. The purpose of visioning development is to focus on potential, opportunities and rural issues. Indeed, every community has its own unique history, geography, and development trajectory. Vision is an activity that citizens and stakeholders decide to create a common vision of the future of their community and also that is interactive and participatory process. Successful rural community development demands an integrated and comprehensive approach to identify opportunities, constraints and social expectations. In the Hazarjarib rural area, Diversity of environment is dominant; therefore, achieving development is a comprehensive understanding of the local level. Despite of its capacities and resources, it has not succeeded in stabilizing its true status in the country's economy. it moves on the path to non-development, in which the acceleration of poverty overcomes development. So this study is aimed to identify effective factors in providing a development visioning plan. Key question in this project: what are effective Factors in providing a development visioning plan in the Hazarjarib rural Area?  

    Methodology 

    the Present study surveys Effective Factors in providing a development visioning plan Hazarjarib rural Area. This is an applied research and uses descriptive-analytical method. Data were collected through fieldwork and library study, Questionnaires and interviews. The statistical population has included of 2 groups, the councils of 152 villages with 10605 households and experts 35 people. Sampling is done in two parts. The first part, Questionnaires, interview with the local expert and stakeholders, the total number is counted. In the experts part; use purposive sampling. In data analysis, Durbin- Watson tests, Regression, path analysis and Pearson correlation were used in SPSS software.

    Results and Discussion

    A) Effective Factors in providing a development visioning plan
    The results showed that the factors were identified in two categories: capacities and Barriers. Capacities include rural tourism attractions, agricultural sector capabilities and human capital and Barriers include Structural and planning constraints, institutional and administrative constraints, the weakness of local and institutional management, the weakness of the law, neglect of the agricultural sector, and economic and social problems.
    B) Effective mechanism in providing a development visioning plan
    Among the set of effective factors, obstacles including Institutional inefficiency, neglect of agricultural sector, planning and structural constraints and economic problems with impact factor -0.597, 0.413, 0.346 and -23.3, have The most direct and significant effective on providing a development visioning plan. Also Lack of local and institutional management, weaknesses in laws and social problems has indirect effects. Among these factors, agricultural capabilities and rural tourism attractions has a direct impact on the rural development program with impact factor -0.395 and -0.300. Mentioned factors, in addition to direct effectiveness, they are indirectly affected in providing a development visioning plan. Due to High number of obstacles, they have shown their direct effects negatively. This means that, without removing the barriers, capacities can also have a diminishing and negative effect on the preparation of visioning plan. Capacities and capabilities will play a positive role in providing development visioning plan, As long as, Constraints of structural planning system, local management and agricultural sector problems and issues related to them to be solved.

    Conclusion

    Existence of a development vision program based on local participation and using existing ecological talents and abilities, it causes indigenous development. Also neglected to prepare the program, it led to Unequal Development, Economic and social injustice, migration, and so on. , As long as these barriers are not resolved in the preparation of a vision plan, any planning and preparation of a program for development and long-term goals will be inefficient and ineffective.

    Keywords: Rural area, program, visioning development, Eastern Mazandaran, Hezarjarib area
  • Mir Sattar Sadrmousavi, Hossein Karimzadeh, Mohsen Aghayari Hir, Aghil Khaleghi * Pages 293-317
    Introduction

    Evaluation is one of the important stages of development planning and structural critique and evaluation of the country's rural development programs are one of the well-known scientific methods to show the idea, method, and management of sustainable rural development planning in the process of programs. Rural development has a different place in economic, social, and cultural development programs, and therefore rural communities are often affected by the same five-year plans, and Varzeqan county is no exception, and therefore, the rural community of the study area, often It is affected by planning damage. It seems that the lack of a local intellectual basis due to lack of proper management and the non-participation of stakeholders in the first stage of planning continues all stages of planning to the detriment of the rural community and causes serious problems in the rural community. Accordingly, because of the issues and issues raised, the present study aims to analyze the barriers to intervention in the effectiveness of rural development planning in Varzeqan city to the pathology of rural development programs.

    Methodology

    The present research is philosophically based on the pragmatism approach, in terms of purpose it is related to applied research and in terms of nature and method, it is of descriptive-analytical type (mixed method). Library and field studies have been used to collect data and information.The realm of research space is Varzeqan county. In the quantitative method, the data were collected from local experts by a researcher-made questionnaire and 150 questionnaires were distributed, which were coded by deducting the returned and distorted questionnaires and 132 questionnaires for analysis and analysis in the SPSS software. Responsible local experts include knowledgeable individuals with relevant disciplines and specializations in the development, rural, planning, and sociology of rural development.Using LISREL graphic software to perform structural equations to structurally evaluate the barriers to the effectiveness of rural development programs. In the qualitative method, grounded theory has been used to achieve the desired result.

    Results and discussion

    In the results of the structural equation model, the fitness table shows the fitness of the drawn model and shows that the results of this study can be generalized to other statistical communities; Covariance analysis of independent variables shows that all independent variables concerning each other with the standard error of 0.5 have significance and interaction. The lisrel output interpretation shows that all the variables extracted from theoretical foundations with different impact coefficients are effective factors in development programs. All the various latent variables are effective in generating damage to development programs in the development, compilation, content, and implementation of development programs, which are ranked higher than the other variables:- "Weak information structure, statistical and inappropriate information system", "rapid change of discourse and dominant slogans in society" and "severe dependence of the economy on oil revenues" in the requirements of the development plan; - "Non-participation of stakeholders in development programs", "inflexibility and instability" and "Lack of attention to real and executive constraints" in the development of development programs; - "The generality and interpretation of some materials and the extreme detail of some", "the lack of a clear pattern and causal relationship between the components of the program" and "the imbalance between cost and achievement of goals" in the content of the development program; And - "Ambiguities in the way reports are presented", "weak government administrative capabilities to implement extensive programs" and "low motivation of executives to enforce the law" in the implementation of the development program. At the same time, using a quantitative method, the theory of At the same time, using a quantitative method, the theory of fundamental theory has been used to investigate and create a deeper understanding of the subject of research. Using basic theory, information was collected, concepts and categories, and the main category were created. Due to the repetition of the category "program damage" in the information, this category was selected as the main phenomenon and a paradigm model was created. Grounded Theory has been used to investigate and create a deeper understanding of the subject of research. Using basic theory, information was collected, concepts and categories, and the main category were created. Due to the repetition of the category "program damage" in the information, this category was selected as the main phenomenon and a paradigm model was created.

    Conclusion 

    The quantitative results show "weak information structure, statistical system and inappropriate information" in the requirements of the development plan; "Non-participation of stakeholders in development programs" in the development of development programs; "The generality and interpretation of the vector of some materials and the extreme detail of some" in the content of the development program; And "ambiguities in how reports are presented" in the implementation of the development plan are among the most important obstacles to the effectiveness of development programs in the study area; Qualitative results also show: decrease and increase in prices, lack of coordination between agencies, different decisions of governments, ignoring the capacities of the region, weak administrative system, ignoring knowledge, information and experience and especially the interests of stakeholders, not paying attention to sustainable rural development, lack of Attention to small-scale agriculture, use of regional facilities for the benefit of central regions, destruction of resources and mines in the region in favor of upstream and lack of attention to the future of the region and more attention to the city, insufficient attention to deprived villages and remote areas, different role of MPs Together with the government and the use of non-indigenous forces in civil works are some of the causal conditions: Strategies for villagers to participate in determining their own destiny, defining the right thinking about the village, defining a specific strategy for rural development, defining rural unit management and adopting a downward trend. Demands. Comparing the results of both quantitative and qualitative methods shows the common quantitative and qualitative results from local experts and local informed people.

    Keywords: Development, Rural Development Planning, Mixed Method, Varzaqan
  • Pages 319-356
    Introduction

    Explaining resilience to threats is an understanding of how social, economic, institutional, political and executive capacities are significant in improving the resilience and identifying different dimensions of resilience in human societies. On the one hand, the type of attitude to the topic of resilience and its way of analysis, plays a key role in determining how well the current situation is and its causes, and on the other hand, it can play a fundamental role in the implementation of risk reduction policies and measures." The relationship between vulnerability and resilience becomes necessary when the issue under consideration is considered from the perspective of environmental risk studies. Therefore, the main question for many researchers in this field is whether resilience is opposed to vulnerability. Or is resilience a factor in vulnerability? And does vulnerability in a simple definition refer to the ability to lose or not? (Cutter, 1996)." Vulnerability and resilience concepts provide valuable conceptual frameworks and models for understanding how communities and human systems cope with environmental and social change (Adger, 2006). In the present study, considering the importance of analyzing the relationship between vulnerability and resilience among global research and the level of research conducted in the country, we try to examine the situation of these two concepts by applying a quantitative approach in the eastern shore of Lake Urmia.  In this study, the eastern region of t Lake Urmia, including 8 counties: Azarshahr, Osko, Bonab, Tabriz, Shabestar, Ajabshir, Maragheh and Malekan, were selected as a study area.The study area is one of the most important and sensitive areas in East Azarbaijan province, which has been the focus of population and various economic activities. In addition, the eastern shore of Lake Urmia has been affected by ecological changes in recent years. Given that the main purpose of this study is to provide a comprehensive and integrated approach to determining the state of vulnerability and resilience to natural hazards and disasters, therefore, in the first step, the study area from the perspective of environmental threats and disasters. Naturally, the resilience capacity of the region has been examined in the form of political divisions of the village and at the level of rural settlements. Therefore, the fundamental question of the present study can be posed in such a way that what is the relationship between environmental vulnerability and the resilience capacity of the region within the eastern shores of Lake Urmia?

    Methodology

    The research methodology is descriptive-analytic and its purpose due to application in to the local planning and rural development system is applied. By doing literature review, an innovative approach was introduced by combining quantitative methods of index basis and GIS in explaining the relationship between environmental vulnerability and regional resilience. Accordingly, two innovative index including Environmental Vulnerability Index (EVI) and Regional Resilience Index (RRI) were implemented. For the vulnerability assessment 8 criteria and for the resilience assessment 19 criteria were chosen.

    Discussion and results

    In research aimed at analyzing resilience, the most important issue to consider is vulnerability analysis and recognizing the threats ahead in order to identify resilience capacity and capabilities. As stated in the sections of the first article, the approach of resilience in the field of management and planning, and especially in crisis management, is in the stages of its evolution and evolution. From this point of view, in terms of concept, operation and application, it has problems and weaknesses that have been explained in the theoretical foundations section. According to the findings of the study (Cutter, 1996), reproduction due to environmental hazards, as well as hazards, hazards and disasters in nature have a spatial and geographical nature in nature, so its study from this perspective will be useful and beneficial. Many studies such as Cutter et al., 2008; Cutter, Burton, & Emrich, 2010; Rose, 2007) have tried to provide quantitative analytical models and operational frameworks for improving and enhancing the resilience of communities using appropriate indicators. The most important distinguishing feature of previous studies in the field of regional resilience assessment with the present study can be considered in the lack of consideration of spatial-spatial dimensions and the multi-spectral criteria used. In the present study, by emphasizing the spatial dimensions and combining the quantitative approach of decision-making approach, an attempt was made to examine the relationship between the two concepts of environmental vulnerability and regional resilience. In the present study, according to this principle in planning and management for crisis occurrence, first the type of threats and environmental hazards in the study area were described Then, using 8 selected criteria, the vulnerability situation was analyzed due to environmental hazards. The results of this part of the study indicate that 27% of the study area is located on the highly vulnerable class. Where the whole area of ​​Azarshahr and Ajabshir is covered and many areas of Osko, Shabestar and Tabriz are also in the process of being damaged. Recognizing the vulnerability of the study area, it should be acknowledged that the southern and southeastern regions are in good condition and are in low-vulnerability classes. However, in the process of resilience measurement, which initially included three indicators of social resilience, access to communication infrastructure and resilience of building strength, and finally, by merging the three mentioned layers, the overall regional resilience index was obtained. The results of this process show that 43% of the total area of the region is in the desired state of resilience and 27% have less resilience to environmental hazards in the study area. The eastern shore of Lake Urmia is one of the equipped axes and development of large population centers in the province of East Azerbaijan and is also a bridge between other regions in the northwest of the country. Therefore, its vulnerability disrupts other regional functions as well. Therefore, the essence of the findings of this study is that this range is exposed to damage caused by environmental hazards. So that the drying of Lake Urmia affects the functions of human settlements in this region and if this trend continues, it will have irreparable effects on the environmental and human structures of this region. In addition, with the possibility of an earthquake in this area, one of the vulnerable areas of Tabriz metropolis and the surrounding rural settlements will be. Therefore, in order to prepare in advance, the resilience of local communities at the level of rural settlements is felt more than ever. Also, the study area, especially in the marginal areas of Lake Urmia in the cities of Azarshahr and Ajabshir against the dangers of floods is seriously vulnerable.

    Conclusion

      The results showed that 62% of the study area was in high vulnerability, with its spatial distribution pattern mainly in the center of the region and within the administrative limits of counties like: Azarshahr, Ajabshir and Osko. In contrast, 43% of the area has a high capacity of resiliency and 27% of the total area is in a low resilient situation. In addition, a total of 168 rural areas have been recognized in identified areas with a low resilience capacity.

    Keywords: Regional, Resilience, Vulnerability, Eastern Region of Urmia Lake
  • Ebrahim Mesgari, Taghi Tavousi *, Peyman Mahmoudi Pages 357-383
    Introduction

    Frost is one of the most important phenomena in climatology, which is caused by changes in temperature over time. The sudden occurrence of this phenomenon at the beginning and end of the cold period can be very dangerous for the agricultural sector. Therefore, the awareness of the frost time - occurrence has long been considered by researchers (Thom and Shaw, 1958; Rosenberg and Myers, 1962; Schmidlin, 1986; Watkins, 1991; Waylen, 1988). In order to manage the reduction of the effects of this destructive climate phenomenon on the agricultural sector and the exploitation of large regional environmental capabilities, it is necessary to notice seriously the detailed study of this phenomenon and its characteristics at the land level. And this will be costly and time-consuming. Therefore, with the purpose of preventing the last two factors and at the same time achieving managerial goals, it seems necessary to accurately zoning and recognizing homogeneity and non-homogeneity between different areas in a large area.  

    Methodology

    In the first step, daily minimum temperature data were adjusted based on Julius day, and the averages of the five indicators including the day of the onset of frost, the day of the end of frost, the annual number of days of frost, the length of the frost season, and the length of the growing season were extracted. In the second step, the five indicators were modeled separately with three land-climate factors, namely altitude, longitude, and latitude of the stations, using multivariate regression models. To measure the accuracy of the obtained models, four basic assumptions were examined (). Using the regression models obtained for all parts of the province, the statistical indicators of the frosts were calculated and generalized to the points without stations. Finally, using the kiriging method, each of the five frost indicators of the province was zoned.  

    Results and discussion

    The correlation coefficient of three variables, altitude, length, and latitude with different frost indices was obtained by simultaneously entering these three variables into the regression model. And four basic assumptions for measuring the accuracy of the obtained models were confirmed. The earliest occurrence of the first day of frost arises between September 21 and October 27, and in the mountains of northwestern Kurdistan, especially the Chehel Cheshmeh. The latest occurrence of the first day of frost also happens in the eastern lowlands of the province between October 17 and November 23. The earliest occurrence of the last day of frost arises between March 22 and 30 in the lowlands of southeastern and southwestern Kurdistan, and the latest happens between May 24 and June 1 in the high peaks of the west and northwest of the province, such as Chehel Cheshmeh Heights at an altitude of about 3173 meters, Ketresh Mountain with a height of 2592 meters, and Vazneh Mountain with a height of 2697 meters. The highest frequency of frost is in the mountains of the region with more than 196 days and the lowest frequency is in the eastern borders of the province with less than 72 days. The northwest mountains with 235 to 248 days and the eastern and southeastern regions of Kurdistan with 123 to 137 days, respectively, have the longest and shortest length of the frosted season. The longest growing season belongs to the eastern part of the province. The average growing season in this area is between 214 and 227 days. However, within this area, small sections that are lower in height have a longer growth period. On the other hand, the shortest growth period is in the western and northwestern mountains, averaging 116 to 129 days.  

    Conclusion 

    The results show that the three factors of altitude, latitude, and longitude can determine between 72 and 95% of the changes in different frost indicators. These three factors explain the 95, 90, 88, 80, and 72 percent changes in the length of the growth period, the occurrence of the first day of frost, the length of the frosted period, the frequency of frost, and the last day of frost, respectively. The Coefficient of determination is 95% for the first day of frost and 72% for the last day of frost. It seems that other factors besides the three mentioned factors play a role in changing the date of the last day of frost. Therefore, based on the studies of Noohi et al. in 2007, Noohi et al. 2009, and Alijani et al. in 2014, it can be inferred that the end frosts of the cold period can be more than the type of the advection frost. In other words, the synoptic factors can play a more important role in the occurrence of the last days of frost and its variability. But the spatial arrangement of different frost indices in Kurdistan province indicates a western to the eastern arrangement in the values of different frost indices. This means that with more movement from west to east, the number of frost days as well as the length of the frosted period decreases, and as a result, the growing season increases. In accordance with these changes, the occurrence of the first day and the last day of frost also arose with many delays between the eastern and western parts of the province. A comparison of the maps obtained from this algorithm showed that this method can provide more accurate details of the frost indicators compared to the zoning that used only stationary data (Mianabadi et al., 2009 and Ziaee et al. 2006).

    Keywords: Frost, Multivariate regression, Kurdistan province, Mapping, Modeling
  • Mahdi Narangifard *, Mehran Fatemi, Abdolali Kamaneh, Mohammad Sadegh Talebi Pages 385-403
    Introduction 

    Recently, issues raised by changes in precipitation, especially problems brought about by floods and droughts, along with the environmental effects of diminished rainfall, have underscored the importance of precipitation studies at different temporal and spatial scales. Due to the pervasive impact of precipitation parameter in various urban, industrial and agricultural fields with respect to water supply, the identification of fluctuations, changes and precipitation structure is of particular importance, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. The similarity feature in climatic variables allows the use of fractal geometry and analysis of temporal and spatial changes. Accordingly, the use of fractal geometry in predicting the behavior of many natural processes, including precipitation in different regions, has a special place. The goal of this study is to investigate the structure of different time periods of precipitation in Shiraz synoptic stations to explore changes and determine the spatial position of precipitation in the stability and instability period.

    Methodology

    In this study, daily precipitation data was received over a period of 58 years (1956-2013) from the Meteorological Organization of Fars Province to investigate the structure governing precipitation parameter. Then, statistical deficiencies were corrected by restructuring using difference ratio and linear regression. The methodology and algebraic logic of calculations in this study are such that in the first step, research parameters are arranged from minimum to maximum in an ascending order. Then, based on the triangular threshold coordinates(2Π), the minimum and maximum were extracted based on linear structures of the desired criteria and algebraic mathematical reference was conducted using Relation (1). Relation (1)  F (x) =    Then, in order to apply the fractal structure by applying the criterion for mathematical reference using Relation (2), the real structure of the desired meteorological parameters was obtained. Relation (2) Y = m2 × sin (1/m)   Finally, by overlapping the output charts of the actual structures and the classical structure of the fractal (Figure 2) in the algebraic ranges of -0.4 to +0.4, the algebraic process of each climatic parameter was evaluated separately.  

    Results and discussion 

    In this study, based on the results, in addition to the daily analysis of the governing structure of precipitation over a 58-year period (1956-2012), which covered 21185 days, the governing structure along with the analysis of equilibrium dynamics of structures and its functions in three time periods (three 20-year periods) of different daily precipitation were also examined separately. The first period began in January 1, 1956 and lasted for 7065 days. The relevant calculations were performed on the data derived from the first period, which based on the findings of this study, precipitation in Shiraz''s synoptic stations do not follow the fractal logic in the first period by applying fractal algebraic structures, Also, in the second period, similar to the first one, the precipitation structure does not comply with a particular fractal logic. In other words, the logic governing precipitation parameter during the first and second periods changes from equilibrium to non-equilibrium. However, unlike the previous two periods, the fractal logic is followed in the third period.

    Conclusion

    The self-similarity feature in climatic variables allows the use of fractal dimension and analysis of temporal and spatial changes. Accordingly, the use of fractal geometry in predicting the behavior of many natural processes, including precipitation in different regions, has a special place. The goal of this study was to investigate the structure of different periods of precipitation in Shiraz synoptic station to identify changes and determine the spatial position of precipitation structure in the period of stability and instability. The behavior of meteorological parameters in various parts of the world is a function that never follows uniform algebraic structure. Therefore, the analysis of complex systems and changes in nonlinear climate parameters using chaotic, fractal and fuzzy concepts offers a suitable way to understand the equilibrium state and dynamic analyses of climate fractal changes. The results indicate the dynamic transition of this time period from non-equilibrium to equilibrium. Therefore, according to the three time periods, the equilibrium dynamics of the daily precipitation structure approaches fractal structure.

    Keywords: Shiraz, Chaos theory, Balance, Precipitation
  • Naser Mansourei Derakhshan, Bohlol Alijani *, Majid Azadi, Mehry Akbary Pages 405-426
    Introduction

    The weather fronts are  known for their large vorticity, dense, moisture, and statical Stability gradients,   and their longitudinal scale is one unit greater than their width. The width of the front is known as the baroclinical zone, in which the front lines have a very large temperature gradient, which is determined by the angle between pressure and temperature lines. Position of a front is located in warm side of the extreme temperature gradient, inside the heat transfer zone and  intensity of the front is determined by the size of the horizontal or quasi-horizontal temperature gradient.Even the numerous expert synopticians disagree with each other in the position of the fronts, their types and intensity, in the manual drawing method of the fronts. So their drawn  fronts are very different While objective front is based on numerical methods and its purpose is to avoid applying people''s tastes in their manual method. The advantages of objective front metod in comparison with subjective front method are high speed front detection, the possibility of determining front frequeny, moving, and feedback of fronts with land side effects. So far, various methods have been developed for objective front method. They performed objective front method using numerical methods and the first and second derivatives of the temperature parameter on a regular grid points with a relatively low resolution of about 100 km. Inside the country, there has been no study about automatic and numerical front methods. On the other hand more than 90 percent of heavy rainfall in the tropics is associated with the fronts. Therefore, considering Iran''s location in the middle latitudes, it is very necessary to study and identify the fronts. So the climatological study of the manual front detectin is very time consuming, expensive and practically impossible. Therefore, in this research, the, automatic and numerical front detection have been discussed for the first time in the country.

    Methodology

    In this study, grid point data  from the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) of type (ERA - Interim) is used with gaussian grid points. In this centre, different types of data are classified into different formats and in different time intervals and different grid resolution. In order to study  of the fronts, isobaric level data with 6 hour intervals and resolution of 0.75 × 0.75 degrees with grib format is used. This grid resolution is set in a regular 61×61 matrix with a grid distance of 83 km. Different quantities can be used to select the appropriate parameter to detection of fronts such as temperature, humidity, wind direction and wind speed, vorticity, thickness and thickness changes ,and temperature is on of  the most important of them. On the other hand, detection of the exact location of the extreme temperature gradient, which is accompanied by the effects of heating on the warm convergence belt in the warm side of the front leads to warm weather, can be identified only by using the equivalent potential temperature.

    Results and Discussion 

    The main idea for identifying frontal areas is to use a temperature parameter in two-dimensional horizontal coordinates. The line representing the front in these areas is identified using a frontal identification function. In order to identify the front, the masking conditions are applied once or several times. In other words, in this equation, the horizontal gradients of the equivalent potential temperature are used, which should not be less than the value of the K-threshold value. >K  . Several indicators are considered to identify the front. The first of them is that the front must be at a turning point in the curvature of the temperature lines which is along the temperature gradient. The second indicator is the location of the maximum values of temperature gradient,and the third criterion is the point where the second derivative of the temperature gradient is zero. Various experiments have shown that the smaller the temperature derivative of the front temperature parameter, the less error there will be (J. Jenkner, 2009). Thus, the Front Termal Parameter (TFP), invented by Renard & Clarke (1965), was used as the main method of frontal reconnaissance. TFP = In this equation, second derivative of the temperature parameter has been used, which has converted the temperature gradient, which is a vector quantity, to a scalar quantity.

    Conclusion

    Examination of the results of objective fronts showed that the detection of fronts near the ground due to the interaction between the boundary layer and the fronts is very erroneous and the fronts are practically indistinguishable. On the other hand, at higher levels, shallow fronts at numerical output are not detected. Therefore, the appropriate level for automatic identification of fronts in the study area, 700 hPa level was selected. Examining the results, it is inferred that cold and warm fronts are often found at the bottom of the ridge and above the ridge of the upper surfaces, and these fronts, during the formation stage, are often discontinuous and gradually evolve during the developmental stages. Strengthening the front will take a more integrated form. Studies have shown that cold fronts produce stronger frontogenesis than warm fronts. Also, the output of objective fronts showed that TFP is a good parameter for detecting the front in this region and with the results of previous studies such as Hewson (1998: 49), Jenkener et al. (2010: 9), they show a good match. The results of this study can be used in the discussion of climatology and forecasting of fronts and can be helpful in the discussion of flood management due to heavy rainfall on the front.

    Keywords: Front Detection Function, TFP, Threshold, Frontogenesis Function, Cold Front, Cyclonic Sestem
  • Soodabeh Namdari Pages 427-446
    Introduction

    In recent years because of decrease of precipitation, use of water for agriculture, construction of hydraulic structures and etc, Urmia Lake surface area has been decreased. Considering the salinity of Urmia Lake and direction of wind, the costal and even further area of Urmia Lake is seriously in danger of salt intrusion. Then knowledge of the spatial-temporal distribution of aerosol characteristics is critical for quantification of salt intrusion impacts. Aerosol optical depth (AOD) is a column-integrated measure of extinction coefficient, representing the attenuation of solar radiation by aerosol scattering and absorption. Satellite images of AOD are useful for studying dust storms owing to the large spatial nature of such plumes. Lack of an AERONET station makes studying dust storms difficult in this area. The present study was conducted to understand spatial AOD patterns and the variability and intensity of inter- and intra-annual MODIS AOD for the longest possible period of 14 years (2000–2015). 

    Methodology

    In this study, monthly AODs from average MOD08 are used to investigate the spatial and temporal distribution of dust storms over Urmia lake for the period between 2000 and 2015. Monthly average MOD08 product files are available at spatial resolution of 1 degree by 1 degree (http://ladsweb.nascom.nasa.gov/data). This study focuses on AOD at 550 nm over land, as this is close to the peak of the solar spectrum and is, therefore, associated with major radiative effects (Papadimas et al. 2009). MODIS data are compared to AERONET data at the nearest station (Kuwait University) for the period between 2005 and 2014 (http://giovanni.gsfc.nasa.gov/aerostat/). The AERONET site shows better AOD correspondence with MODIS Terra (RMS = 0.028, R = 0.916) than with MODIS Aqua (RMS = 0.166, R = 0.646); therefore, hereafter AOD data are discussed from Terra. In this study, monthly mean aerosol optical depths (AODs) from MODIS are used to investigate the spatio-temporal distribution of aerosol in these affected areas (2000-2015). The monthly and annual mean AOD trends has been extracted. With the aim of displaying and analyzing the spatial distribution of particulate matter concentrations, the mean change map was extracted and each map was classified according to the standard deviation method. Using the standard deviation method, the amount of change in each of the pixels can be determined from the mean of the region. 

    Results and discussion

    The changes in dust concentrations for shows that in June, July and April, there is the most similarity is between the trend of change in order in West Azerbaijan and East Azerbaijan. There are two provinces under study, and in February, November and December there is the most differences between the two provinces, which has declined sharply since 2009. Also, the trend of changes in all months shows that the slope of AOD changes has been increasing during the study period. Most monthly AOD fluctuations are seen in January, February and December during different years; It is worth noting that in these months, in terms of dust concentration, AOD also shows low values. The increasing trend of fine dust is much more pronounced at the end of the warm season and the beginning of the cold season (August, September, October and November). Most AOD values are observed in spring and early summer, ie in March, April, May, June and July. Until 2008, the amount of AOD in the southwestern part of the study area was high, indicating that fine dust observed in the southwestern part of the region could be carried by westerly winds from the deserts of neighboring countries during these years. From 2009 to 2014, the average amount of fine dust in Pixel of including Lake Urmieh, increased sharply over the entire region, which cannot be attributed to dust carried by western winds due to the AOD status in the west and southwest of the lake. 

    Conclution

    In this study, annual and monthly averages were used to examine how dust changes in the last 16 years in the provinces of East Azerbaijan and West Azerbaijan, which are adjacent to Lake Urmia. One of the main objectives of this study was to monitor the oscillations of fine dust in the area of Lake Urmia and its adjacent areas to show the presence of salt dust in Lake Urmia, which has been the result of the drying up of large parts of the lake in recent years. The monthly and annual mean AOD trends show the increasing trend in AOD values. Then to show the spatial distribution during the period of study, mean annual maps for each year was extracted. Results show there is two seperated period in area of study for AOD spatial pattern. First during 2000 to 2009 there is higher AOD in south-western part of area and the existence of Urmia lake had caused reduction in AOD in western part of lake. Second period started from 2010 there is significant high AOD above Urmia lake. This fact shows the lake as a source of aerosols. In next step to show the spatial distribution of AOD changes during time, based on AOD value two years with high (2014) and low (2004) AOD was selected. The difference between these two years shows the most changes in area of study has occurred over Urmia lake and also around the lake. Based on the result of this study the increase of salty aerosols that originated from Urmai lake is one of major aspect of drought of the parts of lake and must be considered.

    Keywords: Sea-salt aerosol, Spatio, temporal distribution, Satellite mages, Urmia lake, AOD