نشریه چشم انداز مدیریت مالی
پیاپی 28 (زمستان 1398)

Financial and investment issues are one of the essential areas of every person's life that make one makes many decisions in different situations; however, it is the beliefs of the individual that make the decisions and shape their behavior in the financial arena. Referring to the lack of in-depth and, as far as possible, comprehensive research in this regard in the Iran context, a careful examination of the factors influencing investor beliefs and the importance of each factor in making an investment seems necessary in analyzing behavior, justifying a decision, and providing effective solutions to improve the process of judgment and decision making. So, the purpose of this study is to identify investor's beliefs, factors influencing them and rank the categories in the capital market of Iran. To this end, after identifying the beliefs of investors and the factors affecting them by interview, the hierarchical analysis process (AHP) and the DEMATEL technique have been used to prioritizing investors' beliefs and ranking the factors affecting them, respectively. Following a deep interview with 24 experts and the collection of beliefs and causal factors through coding, a questionnaire was prepared to prioritize the identified factors and was completed by experts who, in addition to having sufficient knowledge about investor's behavior were well acquainted with Iran capital market. Based on the findings of the research, it was found that among the 14 beliefs known by the experts, over confidence, loss aversion, self- attribution, self-control and regret – aversion are the most significant beliefs observed in the Iran capital market. In addition, among the six causal factors identified, emotions, investor capacity limitations for processing existing information and their lack of awareness of the fundamental issues of economy and investment were identified as the most important factors influencing investors' beliefs.

One of risks that any investor encounters when entering the capital market, is stock price crash risk. In this paper, we investigate the relationship between stock price crash risk and structure of financial statements, using data from 115 firms in Tehran Stock Exchange at the period of 2001to 2017Solar Hijri, selecting 26 firms or 416annual observations from them and studying 75016 daily stock prices. The results show that, there is a significant relationship between stock price crash risk and the structure of financial statements. This means, the financial statements that prepared more conservatively, will have lower stock price crash risk. In addition, by dividing the stock price returns into two parts, the returns on the company's activity and second part, the returns due to the systematic market risk at95% confidence level, the present study showed that, the major part of the stock price returns during this period, arising from systematic risk changes (fluctuations in some factors like exchange rate and inflation). This is justified by the desire of managers to overcome the situation and financial statements in order to better reflect the circumstances of the company and not provide them conservatively.

Literature review shows that investors in Tehran Stock Exchange behave on murmur, unscientific information and confirm on few members in market that called Herding behavior in addition to on mathematical method. This research aims to present a model to introduce and quality and quantity variables on herding behavior in Tehran stock exchange depend on literature review. This research is exploratoryby descriptive and survey method. We choose 190 investors in this market for example and they answered to online questionnaire. The answers analyzed by SPSS22 and AMOS18 in SEM method. The results showed our model have eligible practice to delineate relationship between variables and specified that there are significant direct and mediator relationship between personalities, cultural variables, risk taking and herding behavior.

This paper investigates the effects of primary and secondary equity markets on Tehran Stock Exchange’s firms’ performance after IPO in an integrated framework; because both markets interact closely in reality and firms are affected by both. This paper usesshare sold by initial owners in IPO as proxy for primary market and investment-to-price sensitivity and stock price informativeness as proxies for secondary market. This paper also utilizes EBIT-to-Assets, Sales-to-Assets and Net income-to-Assets as proxies for firm’s performance. A non-parametric quantile regression is employed for 51 firms over the period of 2001-2019. The results show that if we consider shares sold by initial owners as primary market, this factor does not affect firm’s performance; while in the secondary market, investment-to-price sensitivity hasat first negative effects thereafter affects performance positively and also there is a negative relationship between stock price informativeness and Sales-to-Assets.

A safe investment for an investor depends on knowing if the price increase is real or the mispricing is causing the price to rise. In order to examine the role and effect of the mispricing on the return on stocks of monthly data, a sample of 276 companies from the Tehran Stock Exchange has been used for two periods of Boom and Substantiv in a five-factor model. Analysis of the analytical model shows that mispricing of stocks during the boom period in all portfolios has a positive and significant effect on stock returns, but during the recession, only five portfolios had a positive and significant effect. These results mean that in the recession period, incorrect valuation of stocks is not associated with higher returns on the relevant share, but this relationship is strengthened during the boom period. Also, the factor of market risk in the recession period in large portfolios is positive and significant, but in the boom period in large portfolios it is significant but does not show a fixed sign. The size factor has a negative and significant relationship with stock returns both in the boom period and in the recession period in large portfolios. In addition, the value factor in the recession period in large portfolios is a positive and significant value, but in the boom period it is only positive and significant in large portfolios. The momentum factor is significant in the recession period in large and valuable portfolios, but does not show a fixed sign in both periods. This factor is significantin the boom period in large portfolios.

The aim of this study is to explain the relationship between cognitive abilities and faith in intuition with trading strategies and performance of professional investors in Tehran Stock Exchange. To this end, we examine the components of cognitive ability and faith in intuition on active / passive (buy and hold) and portfolio diversification / concentration strategies as well as the performance of investors. The sample consists of 310 professional investors including 160 traders and 150 analysts in thecapital market whose data were collected via questionnaires.Logistic regression and ordinary least squares were used to analyze the data. The results show that for traders, highfaith in intuitionis associated with more active trading, and higher cognitive ability results in more concentrated portfolios. Moreover, higher cognitive ability has a positive and significant effect on traders’ performance, while higher faith in intuitionhas a negative and significant effect on their performance. The results are somewhat different for analysts, as their portfolios become more diverse with their age, while faith in intuition leads to a more concentrated portfolio. However, analysts’ intuition, like traders, is negatively and significantly correlated with performance

The aim of this study is to compare the New Hybrid Method with the usual Markowitz method in creating an optimal portfolio. To this end, at the first stage, the future stock prices were predicted using a deep DNN learning method and stock technical variables for the period 1397/4/2 to 1397/6/2. Then, based on future stock prices, stock return and risk were calculated and, by using Gravitational Algorithm, portfolio profits were maximized. This results in creating low risk to high risk portfolios on the Pareto efficient frontier. After that, the future return of portfolios was calculated for the next two months, and the process was repeated for 30 weeks in the form of weekly Rolling Window. These results were compared with the results of usual Markovitz method for 30 periods. The results indicated that both Markowitz and New Hybrid methods showed only better performance in predicting stock prices of risk averse portfolios than average market index.