نشریه مطالعات جمعیتی
سال پنجم شماره 2 (پیاپی 10، پاییز و زمستان 1398)

The first unplanned settlements with unprecedented population growth rates appeared around Tehran in the 1990s and gradually spread to other metropolitan areas of Iran, such as Mashhad, Isfahan, and Tabriz. Settling population in new towns with the simultaneous implementation of social housing policies (Mehr Housing), has raised doubts that whether the population growth of new towns is inherent or is due to the social housing and high growth in metropolises? This uncertainty has complicated the conceptual and causal model of determinants of population growth of the cities. By secondary analysis of data from censuses and second hand sources, this paper aimed to investigate population growth and its determinants of new towns comparing to rival settlements, as rivals of new towns. Findings indicated that the correlation between time-travel and housing prices with population growth rate of the cities is affected by the mentioned conditions and most probably is recursive causality. Travel time shorter than 60 minutes does not have a significant effect on the growth, and increasing travel time to the mother city only has a negative effect on population growth when exceeds 60 minutes. Also, the direct correlation between housing prices and population growth is contrary to expectations and possibly indicates a recursive causality via the positive effect of population growth on increasing demand and housing price. The distance between the cities and the center of the metropolitan as a constant variable over time, has a negative effect on the population growth of the cities as expected, although positive effect of this variable shows a theoretically insignificant association, up to 50 km distance. Research details show that the new towns are completely different, as their population growth rate are unique and unprecedented. Improving land and housing status, as well as developing more convenient and faster public transportation to access the metropolis, can improve the population growth rate of new towns.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the movement  situation and forms of relocation in the neighborhoods and districts of Tehran and associated factors. The statistical population comprises of citizens over 18 years of age in the city of Tehran, whose information was collected in 2016. The sample size also included 45,000 people from among 334 neighborhoods located in 22 districts of Tehran. The results of this study show that the movements between the regions and then the movements within the region and within the neighborhood have been  the most important types of movements in the city of Tehran. Overall, 83% of the sample experienced one type of intra-city relocation (intra-neighborhood relocation, inter-neighborhood relocation, inter-district relocation), and it seems that  relocation between districts in Tehran is more common. The analytical results also showed that the variables of age, length of stay, housing status, number of relatives in a neighborhood and number of children affect the probability of residential moving within the neighborhood and also the variables of length of stay, age and number of relatives affect the probability of moving between neighborhoods.

The purpose of this study is to evaluate and prioritize the factors affecting the model of elite retention of faculty members of Science and Health ministries. The study was conducted by survey method and using the questionnaire technique between 2017-2019 in Iran. The sample consisted of 163 professors from Tehran's premiere universities with special situations (associate professor, living and education background in foreign countries for more than three years, graduating the top 500 universities, teaching on the premiere universities), which were selected randomly. The Delphi-fuzzy method was used for screening and the combined approach of Dematel and phase network analysis process was used to ranking the factors. The findings showed that the retaining factor was recognized as the most influential factor and the repulsive factor as the most influential factor. It means, the retaining factor gained the first importance (with a weight of 0.317) and the repulsive factor gained the last importance (with a weight of 0.084). The results showed the retaining factor is considered as a key element in the resulting model, which can intract with the other four factors, to provide the ground for maintaining the elite persons in Iran.

The recognition of childbearing behaviors  and childbearing ideals among ethnic- religious groups in the multi-ethnic societies and its determinants plays an important role in the understanding of specific characteristics of fertility cultures, structure and population composition. The purpose of this study is to investigate the influencing factors on the ideal number of children in Sistan and Baluchestan province. The research method was survey and data collected using questionnaire. Statistical population included men and women aged 18 to 65 years in Sistan and Baluchestan, from among them, 413 people have been selected through multi-stage cluster sampling method. The findings indicate that most people identified two children as the ideal number of children and this number was greater among non- Baluch (41 percent) respondents than Baluch respondents (28 percent). The result of multivariate regression shows that use of broadcasting and newspaper, and modern gender attitude have negative and significant effect of ideal fertility and age, household cost, ethnicity, and ritual dimension of religiosity have positive and significant effect on the ideal number of children. Moreover, the effect of other variables on ideal number of children is influenced by the religiosity (ritual dimension).

Postponement of childbearing is one of the main factors in reducing fertility to low and very low levels. This paper aimed to determine the effective factors on first birth interval in Tehran using event history models. The sample comprised of 456 married women aged 15-49 years old in Tehran city. The Kaplan-Meier test was used to estimate the first birth interval. The gamma shared frailty distributions with log logistic model was employed to analyze its determinants. The results showed the median first birth interval to be 33 months. Postponement of childbearing was  a feature of recent marital cohorts. First birth interval was shorter for women with a diploma and less (TR= 0.746) than for women with a college education. Employed women gave birth to their first child longer than other women (TR= 1.31). Women who married at an older age gave birth to their first child in a shorter interval compared to younger women. In general, birth timing is related to other areas of life, including women's employment and educational status. Creating a platform for coordination between employment, education, and childbearing will have a major impact on pro-natalist programs  and facilitating couples' fertility ideals.

Paying attention to the youth's health as the most valuable human resources of the society is essential. One of the most important topics of youth's health is  high-risk sexual behaviors and considering the attitudinal changes in  the society, it seems necessary to focus on this issue. The present study aims to investigate the high risk sexual behaviors among youth and assess the associated  factors including social and cultural capital related to health and spiritual well-being. In the present study, the statistical population includes young people aged 18-29 years of Shiraz. The sample size was estimated to be 600 people based on the Lin's Table. The data was selected through multi-stage sampling and using  questionnaire and was analyzed using SPSS software. The findings show that there is a significant reverse  relationship between age, educational status, cultural capital related to health, social capital in all dimensions, and spiritual well-being with high-risk sexual behaviors. In addition,  there is a significant difference by gender and  marital status in terms of these behaviors. So as, high risk sexual behavior was significantly lower among women and married people than men and unmarried.  Cultural  and social capital have an important protective role in high-risk sexual behaviors. Hence, strengthening and improvement of these capitals can lead to the promotion of healthy behaviors.

The purpose of this study was to develop a causal model of the tendency for emotional divorce based on self-differentiation through marital attachment mediation. Considering the aim of this study, a descriptive-correlational study was conducted. The statistical population of this study included all couples who referred to the welfare counseling center of Qasrshirin city during 2018-2019. From among them, 100 men and women were selected using multi-stage random sampling method. Data were then collected using Gutman's Emotional Divorce Questionnaire (1999), DSI-SF Self-Diversity (2011), and Paines' Marital Dissatisfaction Questionnaire (1996).The results of data analysis using Pearson correlation and structural equation tests showed that there was a significant relationship between tendency to divorce based on self-differentiation and mediation of marital burnout.The findings showed that marital attachment mediates the relationship between the tendency to emotional divorce and its differentiation. Marital attachment is one of the important factors affecting the level of mental health promotion and identifying the factors along with proper planning can lead to decrease in emotional divorce and increase self-differentiation.The results indicate that by increasing the pattern of mutually constructive communication among couples seeking divorce, they experience less marital boredom. If the marital boredom of the couple seeking divorce also increases, the rate of emotional divorce will increase.