پژوهشنامه اقتصاد کلان
سال پانزدهم شماره 29 (بهار و تابستان 1399)

Inflation affects the state budget in both ways. Inflation, on the one hand, decreases the purchasing power of tax revenues, which is known as the tension effect. On the other hand, the inflationary burden of government expenditures and its obligations actually decreases, which is known as an antithetical effect. Meanwhile, it should be noted that inflation also affects the budget deficit of the state. In the present study, using a discrete wavelet converter with maximum matching and a vector of autoregressive vector autoregression, the interaction effects of inflation and deficit of government in two cases of deficit and total deficit in the economy of Iran in 1396: 1369: 1 is reviewed from a new angle. Results based on the wavelet converter show that in horizons for more than 8 years, the causal relationship is between the two types of budget deficit with bilateral inflation. Based on the results of the estimation of the autumnal regression model, the threshold vector in seasonal inflation is less than 5.7% of the total budget deficit in the face of inflationary swings, which reflects the dominance of the anti-tensile effect of the Tensi Is. In addition, the operating deficit, regardless of the situation, is from the threshold of positive reaction to the swing momentum.

The issue of economic growth and identifying factors affect it has always been one of the interesting topics to economists. Extensive studies have identified the role of several factors in economic growth, but in modern models, these factors are function of incentives in societies. In these studies, the incentives that drive or slow economic growth attributes to the different political and economic institutions on those societies. This article by using game theory approach and designing different scenarios, will evaluate the different incentives that can influence the choice of size of government’s policy in the oil countries. At first, elites who seek to maximize government revenue intend to set a government size to maximize the production of middle-class entrepreneurs. Assuming that the government is active in economic activities, elites tend to increase the size of government. If the competition extend to the political arena, the motivation of the elites was strongly influenced, which would result in a larger government than previous scenarios and further weaken economic growth.

In this study the effects levying various green taxes (base, 5%, 10% and 20%) on Iran’s fossil energy consumption (oil gas (OG), natural gas (NG) and gasoline (GA)), pollutant gas emission and social welfare was studied using a Recursive Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (RDCGE) model. In order to RDCGE calibration, the Iran’s social accounting matrix (SAM)) and base scenario was used. Required data was gathered during 2008-2016 seasonality. Also, data analyzing Matlab software was applied. Results indicate that in while increasing green tax, a positive shock of economic growth (1%), reduces the increasing trend of GO, NG and GA. Also, levying 0% and 5% green tax couldn’t make the consumption of mentioned energies efficient, levyeing 10% green tax makes the consumption of NG and GA efficient and levying 20% green tax makes the consumption of mentioned energies efficient. In addition, while increasing green tax, a positive shock of economic growth (1%), reduces the increasing trend of gas pullotants emission and in orther to decreasing gas pollutants emission during economic growth, 10% green tax should be levy. Finally, while increasing green tax from 0% to 5%, 10% and 20%, a positive shock of economic growth (1%), increases the social welfare, less than 1%, more than 1% and less than 1%, respectively. Therefore, between studied scenarios, levying 10% green tax is the best for increasing social welfare.

The main purpose of this study is to calculate and analyze the entropy associated with budget allocation and to study the effect of budgeting on the entropy process. To achieve this goal, the Shannon entropy and the budget data have been used between 21 chapters in the period of 2007 to 2009. To calculate entropy, at first, the density distribution function is estimated. To calculate the density functions, the Lorenz curve has been used for approved budgets. The results indicate that there is a high degree of asymmetry and disorder in the distribution of resources between factors and the non-uniformity distribution. The results also show that during the study period, budget management has not been efficient and has led to an increase in the entropy of the economy and the waste of resources. The most volatile fluctuations in the entropy value are in the period of 2008 to 2012, which shows that the economic system has been less stable in these periods than in the period of 2013 to 2018. Also, changes in government have led to a slight improvement in resource distribution management, but it has not had a dramatic effect.

What has been mentioned most in international documents and reports is the which implies incidence, intensity and income inequality among poor people. The purpose of this article is to show the situation of poverty in Iran. The main progress of the present study in the field of poverty research is that using the raw data of the Statistics Center of Iran and plotting the poverty dimension curve (TIP) and using the Jenkins and Lambert method in a period of ten years since 2008, the situation of poverty and its dimensions examined the impact of poverty incidence and the intensity of poverty and income inequality among the poor in Iran. The results show that total poverty during the mentioned period has a relatively downward trend with a gentle slope and the highest total poverty is related to 2009. An examination of the dimensions of poverty also shows that in each period approximately 60percent of the population of Iran was below the relative poverty line and the calculated intensity of poverty indicates that the poor are 54% away from the desired situation and income inequality between the poor 34percent  is estimated . During this period, poverty incidence and income inequality among the poor in the Iranian economy has had a relatively stable trend. In addition, the trend of  intensity of poverty in the years2008  to 2010 had a relatively constant trend, but from 2010 to the end of the period has decreased with a slight slope.

Each country for economic growth and development requires to create capital for financing and basic infrastructure. Countries that do'nt have sufficient capital to develop internally are trying to attract foreign capital and transfer funds and resources to establish economic enterprises with higher returns than other countries.. In order to achieve this, governments enter a competitive game and try to attract these funds with their policies. One of the most important of these policies is determining the optimal taxation on foreign direct investments. In this study, determine the optimal taxation on foreign direct investments in a small open economy for Iran and selected countries by expanding the Ramsey model and using a dynamic optimization control model, The results show that the optimal amount of tax for Iran from 1991 to 2017, although is negative in some years and indicates the payment of subsidies on foreign direct investment, but on average is 0.16 percent that is close to zero. While this rate has been different for some countries, most are trying to reduce tax rates to attract foreign capital. In this study, the results of optimizing foreign direct investment tax for selected countries indicate that despite the differences between these countries in terms of macroeconomic variables, but all rates of taxation is close to zero and even in In some cases, the negative amount of taxation (subsidy) is considered optimal for attracting foreign investments.

In today's complex world, the financial system plays an important role in the stability, economic growth and development of countries. Financial repression is a set of formal policies, laws and regulations and informal controls imposed by governments on the financial sector that deviates the financial sector prices (interest rates and exchange rates) from its equilibrium values, and it prevents financial institutions from operating at their maximum capacity. Financial repression directly and indirectly affects the activities of banks. First, financial repression has reduced the deposits of economic agents in banks and has a negative effect on banks' incomes by reducing banks' lending capacity; Second, as capital accumulation decreases, and consequently, economic growth reduction, banks' income from lending facilities will decrease. In this survey, the impact of financial repression on the profitability of banks in Iran during the period 2011-2017 is investigated using Generalized Method of Moments-System (GMM-SYS). The results show that financial repression adversely affects banks' profit margin. So that, banks' profit margin is reduced to 0.02 units by increasing one indicator unit for financial repression. The results show that financial repression reduces the grant power of banks' facilities, by reducing the deposit of economic agents. As a result, it indirectly reduces banks' income from granting facilities.

Today brain drain is considered a significant phenomenon in developing countries. Brain drain is particularly important for countries in the Middle East and North Africa that are less developed and face disadvantages such as low economic growth and high unemployment rates. Typically, elites and specialists from less developed countries migrate to more developed countries to use the facilities of destination countries. Given the importance of human capital in theories of endogenous growth, brain drain can have deleterious effects for countries of origin. Therefore, this study examines the effect of brain drain on the economic growth of selected countries in the Middle East and North Africa. For this purpose, panel data was used to examine the relationship between the variables during the period 2015-2000. The results of the research indicate that there is a negative and significant relationship between brain drain and economic growth in such a way that a one percent increase in brain drain, with the assumption of the stability of other conditions, averaged 2.5% of production growth. The results of the research indicate that there is a negative and significant relationship between brain drain and economic growth in such a way that a one percent increase in brain drain, with the assumption of the stability of other conditions, averaged 2.5% of production growth.

This research evaluates the effect of the LEG (Legatum) indicator and GEM entrepreneurship index on the real economic growth of selected Islamic countries during the period 2006-2017 by using the panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) model using two distinct gentle transfer functions. In the first and second models, the transfer velocity between two regimes was γ ̂LEG=7.589 and γ ̂GEM=0.1283 the threshold was also estimated to be θ ̂LEG=61.11 and θ ̂GEM=376.1. The transfer speed between the two regimes in the first model is very high, which leads to the refraction of the curve and the transfer surface. The variables of Legatume and entrepreneurial index with coefficients of 0.2658 and 0.0211 in the first model and 0.7232 and 0.2059 in the second model have a positive and significant effect on economic growth. The highest impact on economic growth in both Legatume regimes has the economic participation rate variable with coefficients of 0.5018 and 0.6366, which also has a threshold effect, and the effect of the rate of economic participation on economic growth increases with the transition to a high-income regime. The most significant effect on real economic growth in the low diet and in the high entrepreneurial regime is the formation of domestic capital with coefficients of 0.9017 and 2.823, respectively. The least significant effect on economic growth is using the Internet in the low Legatume regime and human capital in the high Legatume and entrepreneurship regime. In this way, it is suggested that Islamic countries in the transition path to development pay special attention to the indicators of success and entrepreneurship simultaneously, in order to protect the impact of other economic variables, on real economic growth.

The labor force participation rate is one of the key indicators of the labor market. One of the factors that can affect the labor force participation rate is the corruption index. Therefore, the purpose of this article is to investigate the impact of Transparency International's Corruption Perception Indicators, Kaufman et al.'s (2014) Corruption Control Index, and the International Country Risk Guide Index on labor force participation rates in selected MENA countries during the period 2002-2008. For this purpose, three models were estimated separately. Also in this research, for obtaining reliable results, the Cup-FM Method was used to estimate the model. Results of estimation of all three models showed that a higher corruption index has a negative effect on labor force participation rate and this effect is statistically significant at a 5% significance level. Per capita income and unemployment rate have a significant negative effect on labor force participation rates at the 5% significance level. The effect of urbanization rate on labor force participation rate is positive and this effect is not significant at the 5% level. Education and wages also have a significant positive effect on labor force participation rates at the 5% significance level. Also, the high level of economic development has a positive and significant impact on the labor force participation rate.

One of the factors affecting oil prices is related to OPEC's behavioral pattern concerning its position and share in the world oil supply. In this regard, the impact of OPEC's decisions and announcement on the level of crude oil production has been identified as a controversial issue among policymakers, producers, and researchers so that it can inevitably affect the price of this product in world markets. In view of that, the main purpose of the present study to scrutinize the impact of the type of announcement made by the OPEC (including Increased, Cut, or unchanged) on Brent's and WTI's global crude oil returns over the period 1987 to 2019 based on the event study approach. Furthermore, the central aspect and innovation of this research, which makes it different from other studies in this area, is mostly associated with the influence of OPEC's statements on crude oil prices based on the event study and the use of three contemporary approaches in calculating abnormal returns. It is concluded the results indicate a different reaction from the crude oil market to OPEC's statement. Likewise, the outcomes obtained from the current study feature that OPEC has been less influential on the crude oil market over recent years.

The purpose of this research was to analyze the sensitivity of the exchange rate trend and prices relative to the underlying factors affecting it. In order to analysis, the sensitivity of the exchange rate, First, the process of exchange rate changes using the dynamics of the system For the period of 2004 to 2022 is predicted And then, the impact of changes in factors such as productivity, the tariff rate on imports The share of government development spending, oil prices, sanctions and interest rates on the exchange rate has been evaluated. first It was separately evaluated the effect of the variation of the variables on the exchange rate trend. Then, variables variations effect simultaneously was examined on the exchange rate trend. The results show that the changes in each of the above factors, with the assumption that other factors are stable, have no significant effect on the exchange rate. But simultaneous variations of several variables significantly affect the exchange rate, and this gives rise to Being a system. In other words, the results of the research indicate that the changes, if only important, can not affect the exchange rate, and these are a set of factors that determine the course of the exchange rate.