نشریه اقتصاد دفاع و توسعه پایدار
پیاپی 2 (زمستان 1395)

The management of external shocks as a source of inflationary pressures is a prerequisite for economic security. In this regard, the present paper estimates a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model for 34 developed and developing countries over the period 1988-2013. These countries consist more than 80 percent of world GDP, and also they provide 80 percent of Iran’s imports. The main results of this paper are as follows. 1) The global food price shocks have a positive effect on Iran’s inflation, while the effect of oil price changes is negative. 2) Iran’s inflationary vulnerability is higher than other countries, and also it increases in the long run. 3) There is a co-movement relationship between the oil price and the food price. However, the effect of food shocks is greater than the effect of oil shocks in both short run and long run; so that Iran’s inflation increases 1 to 1.5 percent with 10 percent simultaneous increase in the prices of oil and food.

Interaction of developing countries with new political-economic powers can affect their growth and development. In this regard, countries, which seek to achieve development or are deprived of joining the world' political or economic organizations for any reason, strive to meet their needs by joining these organizations. In the contemporary world, it is difficult even for a powerful global country to pursue effective foreign policy and ensure its own national political-economic interests without relying on friendly countries or ordinary partners. This is urgent for regional powers including Iran. Given the growing distrust in the United States after ending sanctions and breaking their promises in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), we can argue that Iran's entry into international organizations such as the BRICS Group will reduce tension mainly due to the biased Western policies. This study investigates the consequences of BRICS group expansion for economic security of Iran and explores an appropriate strategy for interaction of Iran based on the future of the BRICS group. According to results of this research, Iran's entry into this powerful group can affect its economic growth and development, lead to investment of the BRICS in the economy of Iran, create markets for exports and imports of Iran, and create good allies in the international relations of Iran.

This research investigates the relationship between corporate governance and firm performance in listed companies belong to Iran's defense section. Corporate governance factors in this research includes board size, executive/non-executive directors, CEO tenure, ownership structure and auditing report. Sample of this research includes 8 companies for a period of 5 years between 1389-1393. This research will employ panel data models and Stata software in order to estimate and analyze the results. Outcomes of this research show that: Random effect model used to find the optimal accepted model. Board size, executive/non-executive directors, CEO tenure and ownership structure have meaningful and positive effect on firm performance. But auditing report is not meaningful. The model has high illustrative power and there is no effect of auto-correlation and heteroskedustesity.

Considering that Iranian economic structure is heavily dependent on oil, its vulnerability to oil production changes is very high. The undeniable reliance of various economic sectors to meet their import needs is on the revenue of the oil sector. Hence, the decline in oil and gas production will affect the economy of the country, and as a result, the boom or recession is significantly subordinated to the performance of this sector. In the current circumstance, one of the main issues of policy-making approach in resilient economy is the application of economics' theories to solve problems in the context of resistance economy. In recent years, sanctioning countries have used the intensification of oil sanctions as a leverage against Iran, and this oil-dependent structure has increased the vulnerability of the Iranian economy. Therefore, the manner and magnitude of the impact of these sanctions should be considered in policy-making and planning for the increasing economic growth of the country. Thus, in this study, using the input-output table of 2011 published by the Islamic Consultative Assembly Research Center, we investigate the vulnerability of economic sectors caused by oil sanctions, because identifying vulnerable sectors and prioritizing them may help to plan for the use of resilient economy policies. The overall findings show that oil, industry, services, water, electricity and gas sectors, agriculture, transportation and communications, construction and mining sectors have suffered the most damage due to sanctions on oil purchases from Iran, respectively.

The smuggling of goods in Iran has a high volume It covers many parts of the country and has Side effects are on the realization of the objectives of the resistance economy. There are several factors involved in expanding it that knowing them can be effective in controlling and preventing this phenomenon. The original question plan in this research is “What are the factors affecting smuggling in Iran and what impact does it have on the non-fulfillment of the objectives of the resistance economy?” In order to answer the research question through the review of theoretical foundations and previous studies, 30 factors affecting the smuggling phenomenon they also prevent the realization of the objectives of the resistance economy were identified. After Exploratory factor analysis twelve effective factors have been identified and classified into three categories: economic, political, security, and socio-cultural. Then the above factors were ranked by Analytical Hierarchy process and pair comparison. The five most important factors that rank high rankings are: High customs tariffs, unemployment and underdevelopment of border areas, low risk smuggling, free zones and border markets and subsidies.

Membership or non-membership of the Islamic Republic of Iran has always been one of the key challenges for selection of policies in foreign trade’s segment which both, its supporters or opponents, has refers to various issues in regard to the impacts of country’s membership in this organization. The present study, along with detailed recognition of WTO’s performance and its trading structure, has considered the impacts of joining WTO on economic security of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Furthermore, this study examines the potentials of up-coming challenges that each country may face them upon joining to WTO, based on discussions of experts and specialists. Based on its purpose, this is a practical research; however, considering the method of collecting data, this is a descriptive – survey research. This study first begins with backgrounds and literature reviews. For this purpose structural questionnaires were provided according to five stages of Likert’s method, and then they distributed amongst 94 academic experts and executive nobles who had more than 10 years of working backgrounds that analyze by modeling structural equations using Smart PLS software. Moreover, intending to determine up-coming challenges in the process of membership, an interview was conducted with 15 experts of the field and then all agreed ideas were selected from their answers using Delphi technique. The acquired results have indicated that membership in WTO will lead to enhance economic development and would boost economic safety; in addition.