فصلنامه اقتصاد کشاورزی
سال چهاردهم شماره 2 (تابستان 1399)

As for the key role of the agricultural sector in providing food to the human being, the proper utilization of soil and water resources is necessary. To maintain sustainability in the growth rate of agricultural production and saving vital environmental elements from damages done by excess use of chemical inputs, an appropriate price policy of chemical inputs is essential. Therefore, in this research, an attempt is made to quantify the effects of chemical inputs price policy on cropping patterns and consumption of these inputs. For this research 4, price scenarios including 50%, 100%, 200%, and 500% increase in prices of chemical inputs are used. Both primary and secondary data were utilized. in this research Results showed that the gross margin of farmers under all 4, scenario decreases, the area under crops that used more fertilizers and pesticides reduced and that of those consume lesser amounts of chemicals and fertilizers increased. Suggestion: As the gross margin of farmers decreases by the implementation of these scenarios to encourage them to implement price policies especially policies of increasing prices of chemical inputs by 200% and 500% providing fiscal as well as the technical incentive to the farmers is essential.

The object of the present study examined the market integration and the transmission world prices to the domestic markets of the livestock’s major imported inputs in Iran which are including corn, soybean meal and barley in the country. To address this challenge, the Single Equation Error Correction (SEECM) method was applied by monthly data which gathered from the Central Bank, the F.A.O. database and the State Livestock Affairs Logistics (S.L.A.L) Inc. in period of 2000-2017. However, the Engel- Granger co-integration and error correction model (ECM) was also utilized to compare with the SEECK results. The results indicate that all variables are integrated of order one [i.e. I(1)]. The existence of long-term equilibrium was identified by the Johansson method for domestic prices of three inputs, including corn, soybean meal and barley. The results show that the error correction terms are negatively significant and the largest and smallest effect relate to barley price (-0.25) and corn price (-0.16), respectively. The long-term equilibrium estimated by the SEECM model indicates that for all three inputs, the related world price and the exchange rate have a positive and significant effect on the domestic prices of these inputs. The elasticity of world price transmission for corn were equal to 0.45, soybean meal 0.44 and barley 0.28, and the elasticity of exchange rate transmission on the domestic price of corn, soybean meal and barley were 0.57, 0 and 0.13. With consider to the high volumes of corn and soybean meal imports compared to barley, the calculated elasticity of world prices transmission are in line with expectations, and they are expected that corn and soybean meal would affected highly from their world prices and exchange rates in the nation. The results indicate that the degree of price transmission between these markets was not same so that it depends on amount of domestic production, consumption level and imported volume.

The yield of agricultural products and their risk are highly conditional on climate conditions. Thus, investigating how these changes will affect yields of different crops and their risk of production is of interest to producers and agricultural policy makers. This study tries to investigate consequences of changes in climate parameters on yield and risk of dry-land wheat production in Mashhad city. To this end, annual time series data on dry-land wheat yield and monthly climate information over 1991 to 2017 in Mashhad were used to specify crop yield conditional probability distribution functions, using Moment-based regression models. Unconditional yield distribution then, was derived using the yield conditional probability distributions. Finally, simulation approach was used to simulate the effects of changes in the climate parameters on the mean and variance of yield distribution. Results reveal that the rainfall factor in the vegetative growth phase and in the germination stage, the total annual precipitation, and the numbers of days that go below zero degree of Celsius in the sleep stage are important factors in determining the yield and yield risk of dry-land wheat in Mashhad. The simulation results indicate that the yield’s mean of dry-land wheat will fluctuate between +21.40% and -20.49% relative to the base line yield, given the best or the worst reviewed climate condition is prevailed. In addition, given the upward trend of average annual temperature and downward trend of total annual precipitation during the past 26 years in Mashhad, and according to IPCC climate change prediction, an increase in the risk of production and a decrease in the mean of the yield is expected in the future. Accordingly, developing an appropriate variety which is dry resistance, or searching for an appropriate plant to be substituted for the dry-land wheat in Mashhad can be suggested as a way to face with climate change challenges in this region.

Productivity improvement is an essential approach to increase production without using more resources. Due to the agriculture is fraught with risks and losses, farmers' behavior is influenced by their risk attitudes and adoption of policies to increase productivity requires adequate knowledge of individual’s decision making mechanism. In present study examined the effect of risk attitudes on total factor productivity for 210 farms of Sarab County that were selected with stratified sampling method. Risk aversion coefficient and Total Factor Productivity were calculated respectively within the Quadratic Risk programming and Fare Primont index. The results of the TFP index show that during the period of 1392-97, the potato had the highest TFP and the rained Barley had the lowest TFP among the studied products. Average Relative Risk aversion coefficient and proportional Risk Premium were 2.9 and 1735000 Rials respectively; this indicates that most farmers in the region are more Risk aversion. The results of the study showed that risk aversion had a negative effect on Total Factor Productivity, therefore reducing the severity of risk and loss and improving risk management skills increase total factor productivity.

The wheat supply chain has always been one of the most critical management issues at different times. What distinguishes the wheat supply chain is the importance of factors such as the possibility of endangering the wheat safety and quality and its high volume of waste, especially in the storage sector. Some authors believe that the Internet of Things (IoT) can consider as one of the best solutions to solve agricultural supply chain problems. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the impact of IoT deployment on wheat supply chain storage. This research's data collected through distributing questionnaires between 54 companies from the private and public sector in Khorasan Razavi province in 2020. Confirmatory Factor Analysis, One-sample Wilcoxon Test, and Friedman Test was used to analyze of hypothesis. The results show that IoT deployment in the wheat supply chain's storage sector can have several positive consequences in the economy, performance, and marketing area and cost reduction, increase revenue, maintaining quality, improve monitoring, and increase customer satisfaction positively affected. Moreover, the findings of this study indicated that increasing revenue with an average of 3.52 is the most critical impact of IoT deployment. Then, maintaining the wheat quality and customer satisfaction (3.06), improving monitoring (2.71), and cost reductions (2.70) is in the next ranks of IoT impact on the wheat storage sector.

Agricultural sector is the most influential sector in developing countries like Iran. Regarding climatic conditions and natural resources of Iran, there are High productive capability and therefore the export of many agricultural products that it requires extensive trade relations with other countries. Dates is one of the most important agricultural export product in Iran, which with the advent of export powers in recent years, its position has lost in the Europe Union market as one of the high-income markets. So, the aim of study is assessing effective factors on Iran’s Dates to Europe Union. In order to achieve this aim is used gravity model by PPML and LSDV methods. For estimating model, data is used in period of 2004-13. Our analysis establishes four important results. First, PPML estimator had more consistent results in comparison with LSDV estimator in assessing effective factors on export of Iran’s Dates to EU. Second, Traditional variables such as GDP per capita, credit, openness and access to high seas respectively with coefficient 0.980, 0.489, 0.331 and 2.880 have a significantly positive impact and Distance (-1.609) has a significantly negative impact on export of Iran’s Dates. Third, global crisis has a significantly negative impact on export of Iran to EU. Fourth, EU’s re-exporter also has a significantly positive impact on export of Iran’s Dates, which they will become a serious threat to Iran in global market in the long term.