پژوهشنامه اقتصادی
پیاپی 78 (پاییز 1399)

This paper models the assets and liabilities of the Social Security Fund in Iran. The fund's financial position in practice is influenced by the population dynamics between two generations of employed and retired people, focusing on four important characteristics: the premium rate and pension benefits of the working and retired generation, the two-generation employed and retired population pyramid, the employment generation period and the retirement period. In this study, an overlapping generation model is designed to show the dependence of the stability of the fund on the generational population and the transitions between generations taking into account such characteristics. The simulation results show that although the ratio of assets to liabilities can be potentially high, the gap between assets and liabilities of the fund is so high that any of the proposed policies alone cannot close the gap and ensure its stability. Therefore, policy implication s to stabilize the fund's assets and liabilities can be proposed in two scenarios. The similarity of both scenarios is that the government first pays its share of the insurance and secondly increases the premium rate to 10%, with the retirement pension being reduced by 50% in the first scenario and 10% in the second scenario. The results of the analysis show that the improvement of the fund stabilization is mainly dependent on the decrease in retirement pension, which can be stabilized in a certain time horizon.

More recent research indicates that the effect of monetary policy is state-dependent. This paper conjectures that the impact of monetary shocks on output and inflation in the Iranian economy is contingent on state of the economy, reflecting the size of oil revenue streams, which closely approximates economic cycles. Limited access to international financial markets together with fiscal spillovers emanating from financing of government expenditures and fiscal deficit finance, in a fiscally dominant environment, are the main contributing factors in this respect. To address the state-dependent effectiveness of monetary shocks in the Iranian economy during the period 1990-2017, we utilized a two-stage nonlinear SVAR model. First, the monetary and fiscal shocks were identified by a short term zero-restriction method in which fiscal dominance was taken into account as an amplification mechanism for fiscal shocks. Then, we used a smooth transition auto regressive (STAR) method proposed by Auerbach and Gorodnichenko (2012) to decompose boom and bust oil revenue cycles. Finally, the asymmetric effects of monetary shock on output and inflation in expansion and contraction phases were analyzed by impulse response functions estimated using local projection method developed by Jorda (2005). Our findings demonstrate that the reactions of output and inflation to monetary shocks are asymmetric and state-dependent over oil revenue cycles. While the impact of monetary shocks on output is positive and significant only in the expansionary phases, the positive reaction of inflation to monetary shock is stronger and more persistent in oil revenue scarce periods rather than abundant ones.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between economic, social and demographic factors with the prevalence rate of drug use in the provinces of Iran during the period of 1386-1394. Due to the lack of reliable and sufficient data, a time series data for the prevalence rate is developed by using probit models and estimation of the probabilities of addiction for 10 age groups with different demographic characteristics in three groups of provinces (with high, medium, and low prevalence rates). Then, the panel data model was used to answer the research questions. The results of the first part of this study show that the prevalence rate of drug use in the Iran increased from about 3.7% in 2007 to about 4.5% in Year 2015. The results of the second part of the study show that the prevalence rate of addiction has a negative and significant relationship with per capita income; men education level, and has a positive and significant relationship with inflation and Gini coefficient. Also, the results indicate a positive and significant relationship between the prevalence rate of addiction and the poverty and unemployment (especially men unemployment). Another finding is the negative and significant relation between the prevalence of addiction and the real per capita government expenditure. Also, the positive relationship of the economic downturn with the prevalence rate is confirmed. This fact suggests that the rate of drug addiction is counter-cyclical in the country.

The main objective of this study is to investigate the effect of ICT improvement on the effect of financial intermediaries on economic growth in Iran's provinces. For this purpose, according to the classification of the Information Technology Organization, the provinces are divided into two groups of provinces with the development of information and communication technology Higher and lower than average. Then, gather information and data required during two five-year periods 2006-2010, 2011-2015 and in the context of dynamic panel models using estimators GMM , the role of ICT in the effectiveness of financial intermediaries on economic growth in the two groups Provinces were tested and checked. The results of this study indicate that, first; the effect of financial intermediaries on the growth in both periods and in both groups of provinces is negative. Secondly: the level of ICT development reduces the negative effect of financial intermediaries on economic growth. Also, according to the results, the impact of the inflation rate and government size on economic growth in both groups of provinces was negative.

Increasing income levels in recent decades have led to an increase in the health share of GDP, which in turn has led to enhanced health and reduced mortality rates. The monetary value of mortality rate reduction leads to the concept of Value of a Statistical Life that this study calculates and examines its dynamics for 19 age cohorts after eliminating the shortcomings of the Hall and Jones (2007) model and utilizing a dynamic planning approach (in a life cycle model). After calculating the statistical value of life, Grossman's (1972) health capital is established and calculated in Hall and Jones's (2007) theoretical framework. Results show that improving the health status of 10-14 year old individuals has the highest monetary value compared to other age groups. Also, the monetary value of utility resulting from improved health declines with age, so that for over 65 years old individuals, the monetary value of improved health reaches to the level of the monetary value of utility derived from consumption. Infant health capital fluctuates between 2 and 15 million dollars throughout 1996-2015. The fluctuation of health capital and the Value of a Statistical Life depend s on the fluctuation of per capita income, which confirms the very tight relationship between income, consumption, utility, and monetary value of life.

The natural rate of unemployment is affected by a variety of factors, including sectoral shifts. However, the inclusion of such factors is ignored in most of the researches. We employ standard deviation of sectoral employment as a proxy for sectoral shift, and use it to calculate the natural rate of unemployment and the impact of unanticipated monetary policies on employment. The data is from the Labor Force Survey, 1384 to 1396. Results indicate that the sectoral standard deviation of employment has no significant effect on the unemployment rate. We interpret it due to the considerable share of permanent unemployment (those without any job in the past five years) in Iran's data with respect to seasonal unemployment. The permanent unemployment is about 40% in Iran while this number is 15% in the United States. Moreover, we find that the standard deviation of “job destruction” is negatively correlated with the unemployment rate. This might be due to less job destruction during the economic boom which causes the standard deviation to fall.