نشریه مطالعات امنیت اقتصادی
پیاپی 2 (زمستان 1399)

The economic dimension of security is one of the most important dimensions of national security and it is strategically very important. Various economic and non-economic factors affect economic security. Poverty and inequality lead to increased political and economic instability and there will be an increase in transaction costs, which could ultimately affect economic security. This study examines the effects of poverty and income inequality on economic security in Iran has dealt with time series data during the period 1357 to 1397. This research is applied in terms of purpose and in terms of the type and method of descriptive correlational research using dynamic GMM models. The Gini variable is used to calculate income inequality, Poverty Index (PI) to calculate poverty and the combined economic security index is used to calculate economic security. Regression results show that the effect of poverty and income inequality variables on economic security in Iran negative and significant and implies that Increased poverty and income inequality will reduce economic security in the country.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of information and communication technology on employment in Iran. For this purpose, the threshold approach (STAR) was used based on annual data during the years 1370-1397. The results of model estimation show; The variables of GDP per capita, Internet penetration rate, physical capital, human capital and government spending on education, research and development have a positive impact on employment in Iran, given that the country's political and social security is closely related to economic security, which of course employment Sustainable is one of the manifestations of economic security, so it can be concluded that the development of ICT has a positive effect on the country's security. Also, the variable of information and communication technology in both regimes did not show the effect on employment in Iran, which according to the theoretical foundations of the subject, technology in addition to job creation, has also been employment-creating. Therefore, due to the small budget for research and development in GDP, it is suggested that more attention be paid to the quality of human resources in the country to train more skilled, experienced and capable workforce and work in different parts of the country. Also, holding formal training courses, increasing the quality level and increasing the relationship between training and specialization of courses with the needs of production and service sectors of society and allocating a fixed amount of resources to companies for research and development, increases the inventory of science and knowledge at a constant rate. The government pays more attention to this issue in the country.

The present research aimed at prediction of banking disorder and contagion of crisis in the banking network is conducted by application of linear and non-linear hybrid approach. The present research method is of descriptive-survey, and practical in terms of objective. Therefore, in order to attain this objective, firstly, banking system fragility index (BSFI) is reviewed as an early warning system in order to identify banking crisis, in four banking system sectors (specialized, commercial, private and credit institutions), and banking system fragility index is reviewed in the stated four sectors by applying linear and non-linear approaches by making use of data obtained during March 2016 until December 2020. Results of calculation of banking system fragility index in sub-sectors of the banking system indicate periods of high fragility of the banking system, in particular in January, February and March 2017, which might be due to effects of election. Furthermore, in December 2020, high risk-taking was observed in the banking system, arising from creation of a bubble, which represents a strong warning for future problems of the national banking system. Furthermore, during the review period, banking network is noticeably fragile. Notably, results of Granger linear causality test indicate two-sided causality between credit institutions and private banks, a one-sided causal relationship from private banks to specialized and commercial banks and also a one-sided causal relationship from specialized banks to commercial banks. Notwithstanding, results of non-linear causality test reveal contagion of financial fragility from commercial banks to other sectors of the banking network. Of note, since commercial banks remain as subsector of public banks, there is a one-sided causal relationship between the former with other sectors of banking network and regarding state-owned nature of these banks, managerial policies of these banks, not only create financial fragility of commercial banks, but also transfer such fragility to other sectors of the banking system. It is worth mentioning, private banks and non-bank credit institutions, considering network relationship mechanism, transfer financial fragility status to other sectors of the banking system.

There is big lack in indicator and quantitative indices to assess economic resilience with an economic defense approach to be able to identify and detect threats, reduce threatening vulnerability and manage risks quickly to sustain the essential functions of economics. Obviously, given that our county is on its flourishing track, the ability and capacity to stand against the shocks to the state economy and the successful planning to gain the aim, requires indigenous measuring indicators. Considering economic defense approach, this research tries to indigenize economic resistance indices. The research follows a functional aim and a descriptive-analytic methodology. To indigenize economic resistance indices with an economic defense approach, data is first collected through investigating documents to clarify the documented indices of the upstream documents of the overall resistive economy policies and strategic document of economic defense of IRI draft. Then the elites are surveyed to identify fifteen indices to prepare a questionnaire. ISM structural- interpretive modeling is finally used to analyze date. The results imply three levels of impact in the study. Improving economic planning and management as well as the efficiency of economic laws and regulations have the major impact on other assessment indices of economic state resilience which lead in clarifying indigenized model of economic resilience indices. Improving state infrastructures (transportation, communications, water supply, etc.), optimizing public finance, developing knowledge-based economy, improving economic culture, clarifying economy and promoting economic justice are the next affecting factors. Seven final measures including supply and independence of strategic goods (food, medicine, etc.), reducing price volatility (inflammation, interest rate, exchange rate ...), increasing and diversifying employment, increasing economic diplomacy potential, increasing and diversifying state production, lowering economic corruption, and improving monetary and financial system are the highest – major – influential indices among all other indigenized indices.

One of the most important requirements of constitutionalism is to organize the ratio of freedom and security in such a way as to provide a wide space for legitimate freedoms in coexistence with security in various fields, including economic security. For this reason, while respecting it in accordance with Principles (9), (20) and (48); In the various principles of the Constitution, individual and public freedoms are restricted, including "Islamic norms" (Principle 20), "national independence" (Principle 9), "non-harm to others" (Principle 40), "illegitimate acquisition" (Principle 49) and "Irreparable destruction of the environment" (Principle 50) as well as the Law on Punishment of Disruptors of the Economic System (approved in 1990) is bound. Therefore, there must be a balance between freedoms and security, especially in the economic field, which in recent years has been based on the legal requirements of business protection (Law on Continuous Improvement of Business, adopted in 2012), privatization and competition (General Policy Implementation of Principle 44, adopted in 2008), and protection of production (Law on Maximum Use of Production and Service Capacity of the Country and Protection of Iranian Goods, adopted in 2019) has been considered. However, in this article, while answering the question "What is the relationship between freedoms and security in the system of fundamental rights in Iran?" We analyze the Iranian constitutional system by emphasizing the ninth principle and creating a balance in this regard with a descriptive-analytical method.

The purpose of this article is also the future study of the family institution in Iran with a scenario-orientation approach. Considering that this research tries to provide appropriate planning for potential future by environmental analysis, the method of this research is futuristic research, which is carried out using a combination of quantitative and qualitative models. Also, this research is a combination of documentary and survey methods in terms of data collection type. 20 prominent university faculty members in related fields of cultural affairs and some executive authorities in the field of family were selected. To collect information, questionnaires and cross-impact analysis techniques have been used. In the first stage 39 key factors were considered. In the next stage, these propellants merged with one another and fired into 13 propulsors. Relationships and interactions between these 13 agents were examined through the MickCam software. The results showed that the two key factors of consumerism and the plurality of authority centers in families are the main factors in changing the Iranian family in the next decade, which could be the starting point for these developments. After identifying two key factors of consumerism and the plurality of authority centers in Iranian families, four scenarios were developed based on the Chermak scenario model. Among other things, scenario 4, namely, the simultaneous reduction of consumerism and the reduction of the authority centers in the family, is highly desirable for the IRI and, consequently, for the Iranian family, which, according to experts, is difficult to reach.