نشریه مطالعات و سیاستهای اقتصادی
سال هفتم شماره 1 (پیاپی 13، بهار و تابستان 1399)

Expansion of bilateral trade with developed countries increasing economic growth through access to larger markets and new entrants. On the one hand, increasing the efficiency of the economic markets by creating foreign savings and making more efficient use of existing resources contributes to the growth of total factor productivity, lowering the cost of domestic products and strengthening their competitiveness, and boosts bilateral trade with developed countries. In this regard, the present study uses panel data from 2011 to 2017 to examine the effect of economic markets efficiency, including goods market, labor market and financial market on bilateral trade between Iran and the 20 selected countries of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. The research model is estimated using gravity model and generalized moment's method. The results showed that the goods market efficiency; labor market efficiency and financial market development on the bilateral trade between Iran and selected developed countries are positive and significant, while the estimated coefficient of goods market efficiency is larger than the other two markets. Also the effect of GDP variables and the real exchange rate of Iran and selected countries on their bilateral trade are positive and significant and the effects of geographical distance and difference in per capita income between Iran and selected countries on their bilateral trade are negative and significant.

Foreign direct investment flows affect domestic investment in various dimensions. The specific feature of the effect of FDI on domestic investment relates to its complementary or substitution effect on domestic investment. In assessing the impact of FDI on domestic investment the key question is whether the FDI flow will lead to an increase or decrease in domestic investment?. So that the aim of this paper is to investigate the effects of foreign direct investment on domestic investment in Iran with a focus on business cycles during the period 1984- 2017. The boom and stagnation periods were estimated using the Markov-switching model. Then, using the ARDL method, the impact of boom times and recession on the effect of FDI on domestic investment was investigated. The results showed that FDI had a significant negative impact on domestic investment in both periods of boom and recession. But the impact of FDI and the cross-cutting effect of FDI during the recession are much stronger than the total impact of FDI and the period of economic boom on domestic investment. FDI, therefore, has a stronger crowding in effects on domestic investment during the recession compared to the boom period. Government stability also had a direct impact on domestic investment, While Interest rates, consumer price indices and trade had a negative impact on Iran's domestic investment.

The insurance market generally involves adverse selection and moral hazards due to its asymmetric information, which imposes serious limitations to estimate demand for insurance. Applying probit model with a sample included of 15707 clients of Pasargad Insurance Company, this study aims to estimate effects of eight variables on demand for car insurance in Shiraz. The variables are classified into three parts; client characteristics including income, age and education, car characteristics including its price, its model (year), the way to finance its purchase as well as car accidents data and finally contract characteristic including only car insurance discounts. The results show that all of coefficients are statistically significant at the level of %1 except its model (year). According to this model, the elasticities of car insurance discounts, age, price, education, the way of finance to purchase, income and car accident data are respectively: 21.01, -12.27, 7.15, 1.77, 0.59, 0.45 and 0.11, which indicate that these variables are very important in this regard. As it is obvious, all variables except age have direct effect on demand for car insurance.

The purpose of this study was to investigate the structural barriers to attracting foreign direct investment in Iran. For this purpose, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method was used. The time period of this study was based on annual frequency in 1396-1386. The purpose of foreign investment in the country is to promote economic growth and development, increase job opportunities, obtain and develop technology and management skills, improve product quality, and increase the country's export potential. Investment has a multiplier effect, too, in an economy whose potential and capacity are increased through increasing economic growth in the short - term and following increasing the production and profitability of firms, the tendency of businesses to grow and thus increasing the employment resulting from new investments, increasing households ' incomes and more consumption. To extract the components used in this study was done using principal component analysis method (pca). The components used in this study included institutional quality and good governance, economic development and human capital, wages, economic liberalization, rate of openness.

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the effect of macroeconomic resilience on credit risk of the banking system using annual data (2005-2016) for 125 countries in the form of GMM Model. The results show that the components of Good Governance, Market Flexibility and Human Development on credit risk is negative and significant. The effects of macroec-onomic instability variables and the cost of starting a business on credit risk is positive and significant. In addition, the misery index (the sum of inflation and unemployment rates), human development, Nonperformance loan in the past year, and political stability have had the highest degree of impact on the credit risk of the banking system. Also the cross effect of political stability and good governance with macroeconomic imbalances has reduced the credit risk of the banking system. The effect of nonperformance loan in the previous period and the ratio of profit margin to gross income, and the effect of capital adequacy ratios are negative and significant.

The interbank market and the activity of banks in financial markets have led to the interconnectedness of banking system. In the normal situation, the interconnectedness will make the system more stable, but in a turbulent condition, the crisis will quickly spread to the entire banking network. In order to effective policy making in financial stability, continuous measurement and monitoring of the level of contagion in the banking network and studying the mechanism of its impact on macroeconomics is required. This paper evaluates the risk of contagion by using Dynamic causality statistics (DCI), and has identified the banks that have a systemic importance in terms of contagion or so-called too-connected-to-fail (TCTF). The relationship between GDP changes and the value added of the financial sector with changes in the DCI index of Iran's banking sector has been evaluated using Granger causality, which indicates a negative relationship up to 12-month time horizon. In order to take a timely measure for decreasing the adverse effects of systemic risks, Policy-makers should monitor DCI index continuously.

This research assesses the time inconsistency of monetary policy in Iran using the exchange rate targeting approach. The level of alignment of Nominal anchor (money growth) with the actual values of the economy indicates weak credibility of monetary policy. The empirical model uses seasonal data for the period of 1989-2017 based on generalized method of moments (GMM). The results show that the effect of the output gap on the reduction of the exchange rate deviation in the floating exchange rate is more than the fixed system. It is observed that, contrary to the output, the effect of the inflation rate gap on the exchange rate deviation in the floating exchange rate system is less than the fixed exchange rate system. This suggests that in terms of exchange rate targeting and commitment to a ruled monetary policy, the impact of the inflation gap is higher on the exchange rate gap in the fixed exchange rate system compare to floating one.

Population aging is a 21st century phenomenon. Decreased fertility, increased life expectancy and life expectancy in old age increase the share of the elderly in the population worldwide. The phenomenon of population aging, which is unprecedented in human history, with large changes in population and capacity, has led to fundamental changes in consumption and savings, economic growth, government spending, the value of assets and the labor market. It has been done. Therefore, there is a need for training and deliberation in the economic field of changes in the age structure of the population. To achieve this goal, the existing experiences regarding the education of geriatric economics in American institutions and universities have been reviewed and collected. Also, in order to localize the experiences and adapt them to the conditions of Iran, using a questionnaire method, a survey on the necessity and method of teaching aging economics in Iran has been conducted by researchers and researchers in the field of aging and economics. In this study, after examining the experience of demographic and aging institutions in the United States and also a survey of researchers in the field of aging and economics in Iranian universities, the lesson plan related to the course of aging economics for education in higher education centers is proposed. The results of this study indicate that it is very necessary to provide 2 or 3 units of geriatric economics courses in the fields of management, economics, insurance and sociology at the undergraduate and graduate levels.

The exchange rate fluctuations has both effect on the demand side of the economy as a whole (the net export channel) and the supply side (through the import of intermediate goods channel), it is important to examine its effects on production. It can provide appropriate policy recommendations for managing the country's economic demand. The purpose of this paper was to investigate the asymmetric short-run and long-run effects of the exchange rate on the GDP of selected countries using the NARDL-PMG approach. For this purpose, statistical information of selected countries for the period of 1990-2018 was used. In this study, using ARDL method with non-linear distribution interruptions, positive and negative exchange rate shocks have been extracted and in the form of panel data method, its effects on GDP of selected countries have been investigated. The results showed that the positive and negative shocks of the exchange rate had asymmetric and different effects on the GDP of the countries. The results showed that positive shocks in the exchange rate and an increase in it led to a decrease in GDP and negative shocks and a decrease in the exchange rate led to an increase in the GDP of countries.

Measurement and investigate most important factors effective on output gap has important role in identification of disturbances economy and used as measure in the proper economic planning. The aim of this study investigate of permanent and temporary exchange rate shocks on output gap in IRAN economy in during of 1974 until 2017.In the first calculated output gap withwith use Hodrick– Prescott filter and then investigated effect of permanent and temporary exchange rate shocks on output gap in IRAN economy with use a Structural Vector Autoregressive Model. We used Blanchard and Quah Technique for decomposition of exchange rate shock to permanent and temporary. The results show that the temporary exchange rate shock has a short-run effect on the output gap and effects continue for four periods and then immediate effects vanish and only cumulative effects continue in the long run. Permanent exchange rate shock in the short run has negative effects on output gap and in the long run accumulated response has a positive effect. Also results of variance decomposition of output gap in the short run show that the temporary exchange rate shock has a major role and in the long run permanent exchange rate shock has dominant role in created of fluctuation of output gap.

The conventional Islamic Banking mainstream defines the Interest as being conceptually the exact equivalence of Riba. This paper is about to reexamine this premise that "Interest is exactly equivalent to Riba." The arguments elaborates that Interest is a fundamental, pervasive as well as a natural concept which affects the economic life in two distinct forms known as "Natural Rate of Interest" and "Banking Rate of Interest". Moreover, in the real world and practice, interest is present in every exchange contract signed among parties, particularly, in the contracts embracing the exchange of a present certain resource against a future uncertain one. This kind of interest rate that is prevailing in the daily life can be viewed as "Contractual Interest Rate". Therefore, interest in its very essence must not generally be regarded as equivalent to Riba. What could be obtained from diving into the holy verses of Quran and delving into the narrations (Ahadith), guides us to the conclusion that Interest in general is not and should not be viewed as being considered the same as Riba, It is concluded that the concept of Riba is related with the "unjust contractual interest rate" and "the unlimited accumulation of debts over time". The realization of very instances of Riba is only possible under a critical scrutiny in the way that risk is distributed among the parties in a legal contracts, Based on this argument, Riba could not be confined to only Qarz contracts and it could occur in all contracts including those vastly used in Islamic banking.

Essence of interest is different between Islamic and conventional monetary systems. This difference as well as prohibition of Riba require an alternate monetary policy tool as substitute. Participation rate in Profit-Loss Sharing (PLS) contracts is one of such substitutes. This paper aims to investigate the participation rate as a monetary policy tool and also identifying its restrictions and capabilities within a theoretical framework. For this purpose, extracting demand and supply functions of PLS funds, we developed a theoretical model for PLS funds market. The results show that the PLS funds market may collapse under certain conditions. The more opportunity cost of supply of PLS funds is, the more probability of dis-equilibrium and collapse is. This paper introduces a threshold level of expected return that suppliers are not willing to supply their funds for less than that amount. This expected return is a function of expectation of suppliers from return of the project in boom and recession, participation rate and probability of boom. Under this condition, it is obvious that participation rate is no longer efficient as a monetary policy tool in order to influence on employment and aggregate output through investment channel and a new one has to be found. Furthermore, the results indicate that the participation rate has an opposite impact on both expected inflation and inflation and if considered as an endogenous variable, it shows a stationary behavior which leads Islamic financial system to be more stable. The monetary policy maker should be aware that participation rate is not always efficient and its efficiency depends on variables and parameters like rate of return in boom and recession, participation rate and expected return