نشریه نامه انجمن جمعیت شناسی ایران
پیاپی 29 (بهار و تابستان 1399)

One of the issues that statistical organizations face in disseminating micro data is confidentiality, which has made the data not easily available to the public.One way to solve this problem is Synthetic simulation. In this article we proposed a simulated method, which is called synthetic, generates data with high similarity to the original population while maintaining confidentiality. Thus, estimated parameters are more accurate. The labor force survey (LFS) is one of the important surveys of statistical center of Iran, which provides valuable information about Iran’s LFS situation, specially unemployment rate.In this article, an attempt is made to investigate the application of the synthetic method for simulation target population, using results of the Iran’s LFS, summer 2018, for whole 31 country provinces. Moreover, due to compare the accuracy of Horowitz-Thompson estimates from the simulated population and real population, we have used the asymptotic relative efficiency estimate, which shows that estimation from the synthetic population is more efficient than the estimation obtained from sample of original population. This paper also shows that the proposed method can be used to estimate the parameters of small areas and where the sample size is not sufficient.

This study aims to investigate the relationship between the social capital and the quality of life among the elderly living at homes and those living at sanatoriums in Tehran. To achieve this aim, the survey method and the questionnaire tool were used to select and study 384 elderly people in Tehran. The findings show that the quality of life of the elderly living at homes is better than those staying in nursing institutions. There is also a significant association between the type of housing of the elderly and their social capital; those living at homes have higher social capital and a better quality of life than those living at sanatoriums. The results also show that there are significant associations between social capital and its constituent dimensions and the quality of life of the elderly. The results of multivariate analysis showed that after controlling for all  the variables, the type of housing still has a strong and significant impact on the quality of life of both elderly groups. However, this effect is stronger for the elderly living at homes than those staying in nursing homes. The variables of social participation, type of housing, social trust and social support have the greatest impact on the quality of life of the elderly, respectively

One of the issues that have threatened human health during the past few decades is air pollution. Air pollution is one of the most important environmental challenges of metropolises in Iran, especially in Ahvaz city. The article aims to explore the effects of air pollution on morbidity using the secondary analysis of environmental and hospital data in Ahvaz city during 2016. The results showed higher values for indices of air pollution and morbidity in winter. Most hospital visits were due to cardiovascular disease, cancer, gastrointestinal, respiratory, skin, and infectious diseases, respectively. The results of multivariate analysis showed that 85 percent of health morbidity in Ahwaz city was explained by ten types of pollutants; PM2.5, PM10, carbon monoxide, and nitrous oxide pollutants had, respectively, the largest effects on morbidity. In addition, the results showed that age and gender were also strongly correlated with morbidity related to the air pollution. In conclusion, reducing morbidity requires policy-making and effective programs to reduce pollutants.

This study is an attempt to extend the application of the direct standardization method of mortality rates, so that in addition to standardizing crude death rates, age-specific rates are also standardized based of time. Using the Ministry of Health and Medical Education registry data, age-specific mortality rates are calculated based on the all and main causes of death in 2006 and 2015 at the national level. The findings of standardized age-specific rates for the year 2015 indicate that the effect of age structure changes on age-specific mortality rates for all and the main causes of death, especially in middle and older ages, has been largely increasing. The only exception in this case was deaths from unintentional accidents at ages 15 to 24, with the age structure changes displaying a declining effect. Given the continuing process of age structure change toward older ages, it is important to consider the potential impact of age structure on mortality in policy-making and its barriers to reducing mortality rates.

The patterns of demographic distribution in different time periods are various manifestations of complex stages of socio-spatial transformations in regions of a territory. The aim of this study is to investigate the spatial patterns resulting from population distribution in the provinces and counties of Iran between 2011 and 2016. This enables us to explore the socio-spatial consequences of these patterns in relation to transformation of urbanization processes and urbanization rates of regions. The present study has been compiled in two descriptive-analytical levels using population and housing census data and using combined techniques in analyzing findings based on Hot Spot and Cold Spot commands (based on Moran and Entropy coefficients) in GIS software. The research findings show that the counties located in the center of the country have high rates of in migration and those that located in the eastern and western regions of the country are in the periods of out migration. This indicates a reduction in the agricultural sector activities in fertile areas and a promotion in the employment patterns in the service and industry sectors in the center of the country. This trend has weakened both the cohesion and spatial balance in the territory. It is obvious that the pattern of population distribution in the regions of the country is contrary to the principles and optimal framework of territory spatial planning.

Unemployment has a high potential for creating crises socially and politically, and thus it can call into question the state’s acceptability and legitimacy. The state’s response to unemployment is to delay the entrance of the new labor force into the job market by providing educational opportunities, which has led to an increase in unemployment among educated people in Iran. An spatial difference in unemployment and share of unemployed educated people in the country, a chronic spatial discrimination and domination of the core-periphery pattern and its adaption on the habitat of ethnic groups increase political concerns and the chance of rising unrests in Iran. This article uses descriptive-analytical and statistical methods with an emphasis on the discovery of spatial patterns of unemployment in general and unemployment of educated people in particular. The paper applies the methods of spatial analysis of Moran and Getis – Ord Gi * statistics to address the question on unemployment patterns in Iran and their effect on the country's political geography. The results show that the spatial patterns of unemployment are different from those related to the unemployment of educated people, and the sustainability of these patterns over time has strengthened the uneven processes of migration and development leading to the people's perceiving these as political. The continuation of this situation from a political geography perspective is a major challenge for the state and government.

Migration from less developed to more developed areas is the general pattern of migration in developing countries. Such migration is mainly done to increase the quality of life as a response to inter-regional inequalities. This study tries to answer the question of whether the migration affects the quality of life. The target population includes the heads of migrant families from Kouhdasht county living in Shahr-e-Ghods and their counterparts in the the country. The required information was obtained through a questionnaire using the survey method. Using the random sampling method, 400 households (200 migrants and 200 non-migrants) were selected. In order to test the research hypotheses, statistical techniques of t-test, chi-square and multivariate regression were applied. The results show that migrant families, on the whole, have a relatively better quality of life than their non-migrant counterparts. Those with less education and unemployed individuals have reported a higher quality of life. Inequality in the social and economic amenities between the two regions and differences in the social and economic characteristics of migrants and non-migrants are the main explanatory factors.

One of the main explanations for low fertility is risk aversion and uncertainty reduction. This study examines the effect of security on fertility intention in the framework of risk aversion and rational choice theory. To this end, a sub-sample of data from the “2017 Iran Fertility Transition Survey” was used. The sample comprised of 417 ever married women aged 15-49 in Tehran city.  The results show that 53% of women intend to have more children and the average number of intended children is 2.07. Younger wives and husbands, women with a university degree, childless and single- child women, and women with no pregnancy experience in the past two years are more likely than their counterparts to intend to have more children. Fertility intention is also related with economic security and concerns about social harms. The intention rises with decreasing concerns about social harm and increasing economic security. In the multivariate analysis, these two dimensions of security have little effect on fertility intention as compared to age and the number of children. However, given the intention of childless and single-child women to have more children as well as the existing ideal fertility of more than two children in the society, effective measures in reducing economic problems and social harms would facilitate childbearing conditions and narrow the gap between ideal and actual fertility in the country.

To prevent the enduring below-replacement fertility and its consequences requires our understanding of the determinants of wanting no (more) children. Inspired by the Second Demographic Transition theory and Giddens’ concept of “pure relationship”, this study examined the link between individualism and fertility intentions. To do so, a self-administered survey was designed and administered on a sample of 375 prospective grooms and brides, residing in the city of Tehran (Iran) in 2016. Of the total respondents, 87% intended to have children after marriage, 39% reported no or one child as an ideal number of children to have, 54% intended to postpone childbearing by three or more years. Binary logistic regression analysis showed that individuals entering a marital relationship not on the basis of familial and social motivations, were less likely to intend to have children and more likely to report less than two children as an ideal number, and to postpone childbearing for three or more years. Moreover, individuals who selected their spouse independently and more freely were more likely to report zero or one child as an ideal number. A more equitable spousal relationship was associated with the intention to postpone childbearing for a longer period. The results suggest that individualism is an important basis of low fertility intentions among young couples, which needs to be considered seriously by policy makers when designing or tailoring the population policies addressing low fertility in the country.

This research paper focuses on the key issue of one-child parenthood and examines its main patterns and determinants from a demographic perspective. The issue of one-child parenthood is identified as one of the most important components of the so-called process of “the transformation of demographic characteristics”. The literature review clearly indicates that while the general themes of fertility and childbearing have received a large body of studies in more recent years, it lacks substantially studies with specific focus on one-child parenthood. The present study not only contributes filling this research gap, but also is amongst the first studies focusing simultaneously on both sides of one-child parenthood: having one-child, wanting one-child. The results of this paper are based on a survey that includes 2557 married males and females aged 30 years and older residing in the selected rural and urban areas of Iran. The research results presented and discussed in this paper have shown that not only one-child parenthood is insignificantly accepted, but also the proportion of respondents ‘wanting one-child’ is almost half of the proportion of those ‘having one-child’. In sum, the conclusion of these research findings is that the one-child parenthood is overwhelmingly driven by socio-economic determinants rather than individual choices, suggesting the fundamental role of governmental policies targeted largely towards socio-economic and occupational provisions in order to enable individuals to go beyond the one-child parenthood.

Extended family were formed by several related families living together in traditional Iranian houses. Authority, defined as the ability to influence others to fulfill the wishes of the decision-maker, affected the activity and spatial structures of the homes of these extended families. The aim of this research is to identify the activity and spatial structures of the aristocratic houses of the Qajar era, formed based on kinship relations and the authority of family members. Therefore, the main question of is what the effects of kinship and authority of family members are on the functional and spatial structures of traditional houses. The research method is descriptive-analytical, interpretive-historical and phenomenological; Thus, by descriptive-analytical method, kinship relations in mansions in Qajar era and the factors affecting the establishment of authority in the traditional Iranian family system have been studied. The examples of these patterns in the activity and spatial systems of traditional houses are explained. [In-depth interviews were conducted with members of the Amini family in Qazvin, which examined the effects of kinship and authority among members on Amini's activity and spatial systems using the phenomenological method. The results show that contrary to the common perception of the masculine system, women had considerable authority within the inner space; And the authority among women was hierarchical, upon which the spatial system of the house was organized. Also, the spacial system of the house provided various forms of privacy for the collective activities of relatives.

The study of the population of ancient settlements provides the possibility of reconstructing the political, economic, social and cultural mechanisms of past societies and shows a new perspective on the life of previous societies. The present study was conducted on the county of Varzeqan, which has significant capacities in terms of ethno-archaeological research. However, so far no research has been conducted to estimate the population in this area. The present study uses a descriptive-analytical method and an ethno-archaeological approach to estimate the population by establishing a logical connection between the population attraction models of modern settlements of Varzeqan and the Bronze Age sites. That is, calculating the approximate population by conducting field studies, estimating the extent and the population of ​​villages and nomadic settlements, and comparing the extent of ​​Bronze Age sites. This way, a clear understanding of the demographic changes in Varzeqan County can be achieved. Accordingly, the population density of Varzeqan county is estimated to be 42 people per hectare and the population density of Bronze Age settlements is estimated as follows: in the early Bronze Age, with an area of more than 3.8 hectares, a population of about 160 people; in the middle Bronze Age with an area of 12.7 hectares, a population of about 533 people; and in the late Bronze Age with an area of 75.53 hectares, a population of 3172 people were present and settled in this region.