نشریه آینده پژوهی ایران
سال پنجم شماره 2 (پاییز و زمستان 1399)

The present study is an attempt to provide an integrated process model that identifies the most important dimensions and components of strategic foresight evaluation at the national level capable of step-by-step evaluation of strategic foresight projects.

The mixed research method has been selected according to the purpose of the research. The present paper has two steps: the first step includes examining the methodological foundations, approaches and theoretical foundations to identify the dimensions of the strategic foresight evaluation framework and the second step to provide and implement an integrated strategic foresight evaluation process model based on interpretive structural modeling.

In this model, with the opinion of experts and using a questionnaire, the linkage of 14 sub-processes of strategic foresight evaluation have been identified and explained at 7 levels.

In order to evaluate strategic foresight using the theoretical foundations of policy evaluation, project evaluation, and strategic control, we must first examine the criteria of strategic foresight project, analyze the project position and identify its characteristic then must develop the evaluation plan. Comparative evaluation and process evaluation must be considered in the fourth level and in the fifth level the evaluation of results and effects should be considered. In the sixth level, the implementation guarantee, strategy implementation and strategy content are examined and controlled, and then in the seventh level, SWOT analysis and presentation of results are considered, and finally the project capacity building is analyzed.

Due to the increasing development of information technology, researchers estimate that in the near future, organizational structures will act hastily for fear of backwardness. Without sufficient attention to the security dimensions, they ignore the need for intelligent security simply by emphasizing cyberization and allocating large costs for preparing the technical infrastructure. In this regard, by observing the security dimensions, our research tries to identify and prioritize the drivers that have the most ability to provide cyber services.

Our research is descriptive-analytical. The data collection is done theoretically in accordance with library studies; its tool is analytically questionnaire and data analysis is conducted by SPSS and Mic-Mac software.

Considering the security dimensions according to experts, we identified 12 drivers with the highest potential to provide cyber services and prioritized them in 4 areas. Next, by considering the two parameters of action and reaction, we explored the relationships between the drivers. Finally, we tried to bring the system closer to stability by prescribing an appropriate procedure.

According to the results of the research, in order to provide cyber services, the government should consider the degree of the organization's action and reaction and avoid making sporadic decisions that do not have a specific priority. In the realization of its cyber services, it should also pay special attention to the security dimension.

In recent years, the growth of technology has had a profound impact on human resources, and given the rapid changes in technology in the public sector, it is believed that technology will affect the nature of human resource processing in the future .The purpose of this study is to identify the most important consequences of technological change in the future of Iranian government jobs and possible scenarios in this direction.

The present research is applied-developmental in terms of purpose, descriptive-analytical in nature and mixed-based methodology (qualitative and quantitative). The method used in this research is based on scenario processing using Mick Mac software to identify key drivers.

After recognizing the factors shaping the future, macro trends and strategic drivers in the public sector, four scenarios were obtained under the titles of inexhaustible consumerism; value-creating government; the unsolved riddle and overnight.

It can be concluded that only in one scenario is it possible to achieve a favorable future with the growth of technology and its optimal use, reduction of government employment permanently and agility of the government. In fact, identifying the drivers, planners and macro-policymakers make us wonder which scenario we are moving towards, and if we want to move towards the desired scenario, the value-creating government scenario, which indicators should we turn into the desired one.

After almost half a century, Iranian society has been rapidly changing due to deep structural developments. These social transformations have led to a certain behavioral and value system that plays an important role in the emergence of areas of transition to democracy. The purpose of this research is to study the most important areas of transition to democracy in the Iran in the fifth decade of revolution with a futuristic approach.

 The present study makes use of trend analysis method and qualitative analysis. The statistical population consists of academic experts and authorities on the political transition. The sample size was determined by sequential theoretical sampling. The data-collection tool was a semi-structured interview reaching theoretical saturation through 16 interviews.

Factors such as the expansion of virtual social networks and activism, the reduction of government authority in the field of information monopoly, government accountability to the people due to the reduction of oil revenues and expansion of the new middle-class have strengthened democracy in society in the fifth decade of the revolution.

The drivers of democracy in Iran The fifth decade of the revolution is often social in nature and will emerge from the text of Iranian social identities. These factors will have a cumulative effect on each other as well as on the political structure of the process of consolidating democracy.

The aim of this study was to design a model for future research ability of education managers of the Social Security Organization. The orientation of this study is applied and developmental and its foundations are philosophical and interpretive.

This research has an inductive approach and in order to implement it, a qualitative method has been used. This study makes use of grounded theory and field strategy. Semi-structured interviews were used to collect data and purposive sampling method was used to select the sample. Sixteen of all social security managers and faculty members were interviewed and data were analyzed through pivotal, selective and open coding.

The results show that the future research ability of education managers requires factors such as organizational leadership, organizational structure, human resource management, futuristic culture, scenario writing, strategic planning, training development, facilities, futures management, participation of employees and eliminating factors such as unhealthy organizational climate and redundant bureaucracy to achieve organizational development of the Social Security Organization.

Future research capability of education managers requires attention to the culture of futurism, diversity, collectivism and leadership of the organization and futures research can be used as a supporter to draw and create the desired future. Stakeholders can use the ability of managers to study the future well to identify opportunities and overcome threats by predicting the future, which is very important in government organizations such as social security.

The future of the Social Security Organization has always been raised as one of the serious and effective challenges regarding the provision of social services in Iran. Ignoring this future can lead to irreparable consequences, which would affect the fate of more than 43 million Iranian people. The purpose of this research was to identify the key factors that affect the future of more than 53% of Iranian people to figure out a desired and believable future for the Social Security Organization.

In this research, the data were collected through the Meta-Synthesis method of Sandelowski and Barroso model as well as semi-structured interviews with experts (university professors and managers of the Social Security Organization) to increase the richness of the research. The thematic analysis technique was used to analyze the data.

A questionnaire was prepared through the 22 key factors identified by meta-synthesis and interview with experts to rank key factors based on importance and uncertainty. Finally, two factors of management styles, especially in the financial field in terms of importance and Apoliticism of the organization in terms of uncertainty, were ranked higher by experts.

The Social Security Organization has put the organization intelligence on its agenda through the factors of attention and the use of management styles, especially in the financial field in terms of importance and avoidance of Apoliticism and political behaviors as the most important key factors in the future of social security to prevent any crisis in the organization.

The city of Isfahan, a cultural city with a long history, is famous in the world and has a strategic position in Iran, so its future is important for the competitive and relative prosperity of this city. The aim of this study is to extract an integrated model of strategic foresight.

First of all, using Meta synthesis method, the components of the model have been extracted from library studies and documents. Then, with three rounds of Delphi method, using the experts of Isfahan city and municipality, the components of Isfahan city have been selected. Finally, the interpretive structural modeling method prioritizes the components over each other.

The results showed that the integrated strategic foresight model presents content model in the input stage and first level and strategic questions in final level. Foresight stage starts with trend analysis in the first stage and ends with vision in final level. In the output stage, the test of strategic options is set along with signals and wildcards to enter the strategic plans and create partnership among stakeholders. In the strategy stage, strategies towards strategic plans and their impact analysis on budget are considered as the best features for strategic foresight model of Isfahan.

According to the research results, in order to achieve sustainable plans for the city and the municipality, while preparing a futuristic document with an integrated model, Isfahan Municipality should prepare scenarios for the desired image of the city in order to achieve sustainable plans while strengthening the strategic plan.

The emergence of water crisis and the spread of uncertainties in the context of sustainability and the future of water supply makes managers to make critical decisions about water resources management, taking into account the various processes and factors affecting it, in particular the consequences of climate change, population growth, political decisions, and so on.Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate systematically the factors affecting water resources in dimensions of resources together with consumption and define alternative futures in this context based on the considered factors.

Scenario development is one of the suggested tools that can be effective in assessing the future consequences of making decisions and implementing various strategic policies in water resourcemanagement field. This framework has been studied at regional level for Tabriz water resources. According to the nature of the research, structural analysis, scenario writing and Delphi methods have been used.

According to the results, 15 key factors are involved in the availability of water resources in Tabriz. Investigating the possible states in each factor eventually led to 47 possible situations. By thoroughly evaluating possible situations, 7585 possible scenarios, 9 plausible scenarios and 4 scenarios with high probability of future condition of water resources in Tabriz were identified.

According to the current situation, it was observed that there has been a considerable gap to the achievement of the fundamental goals of development and the desirable scenarios. Therefore, strategies and measures for achieving the most desirable future were introduced.

The future of any business is influenced by a correct understanding of the needs and wants and anticipation of consumer behavior. Presenting a picture of a possible future makes it possible to make decisions and adopt appropriate strategies for influencing and shaping the future.

The present research method is applied and in terms of nature, analytical and exploratory, a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods is used. With the help of foresight method, ie., balanced-impact analysis method, the consumption reversal scenarios of  natural gas suppliers were formulated.

The possible scenarios for this study are 162 scenarios for which it is not possible to plan and it is only statistical. Based on the degree of adaptation and impact score, a total of 5 scenarios with high probability of occurrence and 12 weak scenarios were extracted.

5 strong or probable scenarios have been extracted, of which Clear Air scenario with 4 favorable assumptions (80% of desirability) is the most favorable situation as a desirable scenario, Stormy Weather scenario with 4 critical assumptions (80% of critical conditions) is the most unfavorable situation and Scenarios of Cloudy Weather, Scattered Rain and Rainy Weather with the most static states were considered as static scenarios.

Today's world conditions with features such as uncertainty,volatility, complexity and ambiguity have created challenges for the future of crude oil. Therefore, it is necessary to use Futures study methods in order to be prepared for any kind of event and changes ahead. Accordingly, this study has been conducted with the aim of identifying the effective uncertainties in order to formulate future scenarios for the position of crude oil in the Iranian economy.

The present study applies a mixed methodology to formulate future crude oil scenarios, namely, environmental scanning to identify the driving forces, cross-impact analysis to measure the importance of drivers,  consensus index to measure critical uncertainties and the global business network method to develop scenarios. In order to explain and extract the factors affecting the position of crude oil in the country's economy, the initial list of effective drivers was extracted. The statistical population of this study included experts in the field of oil, energy economics and futures studies.

The findings of this study include the identification of drivers, the uncertainty and the mapping of scenarios. Based on the results of environmental scanning, 35 pioneers in the fields of economics, politics, technology, social and environmental were identified. According to the findings of this study, the three drivers of Iran's international interaction model, the share of renewable energy in the global energy portfolio and crude oil prices, are the main effective uncertainties. Hence, the four scenarios of crude oil position in the study horizon (2035) were formulated with such a premise.

In this study, considering the challenges, complexities, uncertainties and examining with a future research approach, the scenarios of crude oil position were drawn. Each of the four drawn scenarios provides images of the future of crude oil in the Iranian economy on the horizon of 2035.

The present study aims to design proactive career behaviors model in oil industry using ISM approach.

This research is based on quantitative and qualitative cross-sectional research that is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive survey in terms of nature.The statistical population of the present study consists of Oil Contracting Companies of Iran of which 30 experts have been selected based on the principle of theoretical adequacy and using a targeted sampling method. The information gathering tool in the qualitative research section is semi-structured interview and in the quantitative section the questionnaire is also used. In the qualitative section, the data and information obtained from the interview were analyzed using Atlas-Ti software and the coding method and components and indicators of Proactive Career Behaviors were identified. Also in the quantitative part of the research, the final model of research has been developed and presented using Matlab software and interpretive structural modeling technique.

The research findings include indicators and components of Proactive Career Behaviors in oil contracting companies. Also, the research results included twenty-two indicators in five levels and described in the final model. Review of the literature and research background shows that there is no research that has attempted to present a model of proactive career behaviors and the present study has responded to this research gap by presenting a model of proactive career behaviors in the oil industry.

Applying proactive career behaviors enables employees to fully consciously and intelligently predict the needs and wants of the future labor market and increase their capabilities and abilities to make the best use of opportunities.

One of the most important duties of governments in the world is planning for the development of public sports. Public sports are closely related to physical and mental health of the community. Developing plans for public sports is influenced by macro-processes, actions, events and various elements that are often uncertain and cannot be accurately predicted. Therefore, decision-makers need to know the possible opportunities of the future. The current study aims to spot the opportunities standing in front of Iranian public sports. 

This research is qualitative and applied. The statistical population included elites on sports management, sociology of sports and sports law as well as technology, politics, culture and futures studies.A snowball sampling methods was applied to the research sample and 25 persons were selected purposefully. However, using Schwartz’s model, main drivers and components of the structure were obtained. Next, the wizard-scenario software was employed for structural analysis and examining relationships between uncertainties. Then, spaces of the scenario were extracted.

A number of four probabilistic scenarios were developed compliant with the future of public sports, namely, the happiness ecosystem(the most optimal possible scenario), health scanners (development of public sports in the middle class), stagnators (no change in circumstances) and downsizers (the most unfavorable possible scenario).

When each scenario narrated and the findings summarized in expert panels, strategic recommendations(flexible and practical in all 4 scenarios) were provided regarding the future of Iranian public sports for relevant managers and policy makers.