نشریه پژوهش های برنامه و توسعه
پیاپی 1 (بهار 1399)

One of the important issues in regional economics is how the resources and facilities of the country are distributed in the spatial and geographic dimension, so that it does lead to regional balances. One of the indicators of imbalance between regions is the inequality of per capita income. In this regard, identification of factors affecting income inequalities among regions will play an important role in policy making for regional equilibrium The purpose of this study is to identify the causes of per capita inequality among the provinces of Iran during the period of 2000-2014. To achieve the research goal, the role of various economic factors in increasing income inequality among the provinces with using the fixed effects method of Panel data regression model was studied. The estimated regression model showed that the impact of the relative advantage indexes in industrial goods, the gap in the government spending in the provinces, the concentration of industrial activities, the difference in human capital and relative advantage in the tourism industry on income inequality were positive.

An Empirical Test about Role of Information and Communication Technology: A case study of Iran industrial establishments 10 employees and more Alireza Amini , Maryam Malakan and Zahra Alizadeh In this study, the role of information and communication technology (ICT) has been tested on industrial employment during the period of 2006-2013. The results of model is estimated by using panel data using generalized moment method (GMM) at the level of two-digit ISIC codes indicate that information and communication technology in the form of a combination of computer and internet users has had a negative and significant effect on employment. Therefore, the effects of information and communication technology on the reduction of non-specialized jobs have been stronger than the creation of specialized occupations. In this study, real value added, real wages, real interest rates of bank facilities (as cost of capital use) and industry size are used as control variables. Value added and real wages, according to theoretical expectations, have had a significant positive and negative impact on employment, respectively. The real interest rate of the banking facility as an indicator of the cost of capital utilization has a negative and significant effect on employment and represents the complementary relationship between labor and capital. Finally, the variable control of industry size has a positive and significant impact on employment.

 Appropriate share of the economic markets, political interaction, social and cultural activities need international contact and properties almost similar conditions in the domestic environment. The presence of government in national markets one of the most important factors that indoor exposure especially with global competition undermines the national economy. This study aimed to investigate the effect of government size on globalization in 95 selected countries around the world between 1985-2014 using dynamic panel model (GMM) was performed. In this paper, multiple indicators for example globalization index KOF, attract foreign direct investment and share of export of domestic production has been studied. The results show that significant negative correlation between government size and globalization of society. It can be said that the widespread presence of government can interact successfully in a global society and international markets to weaken the economy. As well as the effects of other variables in the models suggest that human development, control of corruption, expenditure on research and development and increase domestic production have positive impact but inflation and high rates of tariffs have negative impact on economic success in attracting international investment and exports there.

 Today, one of the most important problems facing the banking system of the country is the increase in non-performing loans, consequently reduction of liquidity, disruption in the allocation of resources and ultimately a decline in bank profit. This study examines the factors (such as the economic growth rate, the average interest rate and etc.) affecting lending for 17 Iran commercial banks in 1388-1395. In the study, the ratio of loans to total assets was used as the dependent variable. The independent variables are deposits ratio, capital ratio, the ratio of non-performing loan, The average interest rate on deposit and loan, bank size, inflation rate, required reserve ratio and the rate of economic growth. In addition, the statistical method and software used in this research is panel data and Eviews8 respectively. The results indicate a negative impact of NPL, liquidity ratio and average interest rate on lending and also positive impact of deposits ratio and economic growth rate. 

Providing jobs for the recruited workforce is one of the social and legal demands of the people of every country. So far, the political effects of unemployment and employment have been less popular. Creating employment can increase legitimacy and acceptance of governments and enhance political stability. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effects of unemployment on political stability during the period 1985-2015 in Iran. Vector regression (VAR), Johansson-Juselius, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), and variance analysis function were used for this purpose. The results show that in the long run, two variables of unemployment rate and Gini coefficient have a negative and significant relationship with political stability. In addition, the increase in economic growth has led to a 10% improvement in the political stability index. The vector error correction model shows that the long-term pattern of political stability in each period corrects 11.9 percent of the imbalance and approaches its long-term trend. Regarding the results of the analysis of variance, the effect of the unemployment rate on political stability variance increases from 15% in the short term to 22% in the long run. According to the results of the study, it seems that in order to establish political stability in the country, the unemployment rate should be restrained in the first place and the Gini coefficient should be reduced and the economic boom in the country should be created by strengthening domestic production and following the pattern of resistance economy.

One of the reason affecting on the national economy is, GDP . But it only covers market value of final goods and services produced in the economy;it is not inclusive negative environmental impacts.On the other hand as a result of trade liberalization, economic activity expanded and use of resources and energy inappropriately increases.So theoretically, demonstrate that GDP is not a good criterion for measuring the economic well-being. Consistently, standards for calculating national income has been proposed to raising the inadequacy of these measures standards, is green GDP. In this study, to evaluate the impact of trade liberalization on green GDP, methods gravitational search algorithm and Firefly algorithm that has been used for some given time in the years 1961- 2015. The results of the evaluation of the impact of trade liberalization show that this variable is positive and significant effect on green GDP. The results show that due to the positive impact of trade liberalization on green GDP, this variable as a variable known to reduce pollution; this means that an increase in trade transactions with Iran will lead to improved environmental quality.

In this study, a small econometric model of scale with panel data for the years 2000-2015 is estimated to flow in the Persian Gulf region. The results indicate that in the oil, non-oil, and import equations, the most important variables are the crude oil prices, the country's gross domestic product, and the export of goods, which have the most important role in explaining the oil, non-oil exports and total imports of the region. In order to predict the flow of trade, the first and second scenarios were considered for explanatory variables up to 1404 horizons. In the first scenario, the variables based on the IMF and the World Bank forecasts and their histories, and the only oil price variable in the first scenario based on its history and in the second scenario, are expected to grow ten percent annually. The result of the simulation of the econometric model in the form of these two scenarios is the volume of trade between $ 1500 to $ 1,900 billion for 2025 in the region and, on the other hand, the trade balance of the region in the year 2025 is between 450 to 650 billion positive. Therefore, in 2025, according to the first scenario, about 44% of the region's exports of oil and petroleum products, and according to the second scenario, is about 58%.