نشریه جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی محیطی
سال سی و دوم شماره 1 (پیاپی 81، بهار 1400)

Estimation of discharge in ungauged basins is of prominent importance in hydrologic and water resource management studies; however, it is not possible to determine the runoff coefficient in different watersheds without streamflow data. In many study areas of the country (unit of hydrological basis and balance of water resources in the studies of the Ministry of Energy), there is no hydrometric station to measure the surface flow out of the area. Several methods have been introduced to estimate the discharge of ungauged basins, which can be classified into three main categories. The first category contains the methods that make a relation between precipitation and the produced runoff (such as the Inglis and De’Souza and the Indian Department of Irrigation (IDOI) methods). The second category includes the methods that estimate annual runoff deficit and predict the yearly runoff accordingly (such as Turc, Langbein, Coutagine, and Khosla methods). The third category covers the methods that take into account the physiographic characteristics of basins to estimate runoff (such as the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR), Justin, and Lacey methods). The SCS Curve Number (CN) method is also among the most common methods of estimating runoff produced by rainfall and considers various conditions in its formulations; nonetheless, determining the CN and its initial absorption coefficient is still challenging. The aim of the present study is to evaluate the efficiency of different empirical methods in the estimation of runoff in watersheds with different hydrologic and physiographic characteristics and climatic conditions in addition to giving some insights on the selection of the proper runoff estimation methods in ungauged basins.In this study, the application of empirical methods in the calculation of the outgoing discharge from various areas in the Sefidroud watershed was investigated. The Sefidroud watershed has a total number of 11 areas, 10 of which have hydrometric stations in their outlets. For these ten sub-basins, the observed annual runoff was compared with the results yielded by the aforementioned empirical methods, and the efficiency of each method was assessed accordingly for each sub-basin. The Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Standard Deviation (SD), Correlation Coefficient, and the Centered Root Mean Squared Deviation (CRMSD) were used to analyze the data. The runoff estimation methods investigated in this study included Khosla, Lacey, Inglis De’Souza, Coutagine, Turc, ICAR, IDOI, Justin, and the SCS-CN methods. Moreover, the authors of the present study tried to find the optimized value of the initial absorption coefficient in the SCS-CN method in order to obtain a reasonably accurate estimation of runoff for each sub-basin. 

The results of the present study indicated that the Khosla and the SCS-CN methods with an initial absorption coefficient of 0.05 and 0.2 showed the poorest performance in all sub-basins. Moreover, the Inglis De’Souza method was not applicable in Iran’s sub-basins due to its different approach in dealing with plains and highlands. Because the study areas in the catchments of Iran are all a combination of plains and elevations and sometimes include a combination of several plains and several elevations with different characteristics. The optimized values of the initial absorption coefficients varied between 0.0006 and 0.25, which implies that a specific value of initial absorption cannot be used in all of the sub-basins to achieve the best accuracy in the estimation of runoff. Comparison between the results yielded by other methods (i.e. Turc, Coutagine, IDOI, ICAR, and Justin) with the observed streamflows indicated that the choice of the best method depends on the error index used for comparison. In other words, the Justin method had the best performance in terms of correlation with the observed runoff in the Sefidroud watershed. But, in terms of the RMSE error index, the IDOI method generally performs better. Finally, the Coutagine method had a good performance in terms of both correlation and RMSE in the main study areas. 

According to the results of the present study, the Justin method is recommended for areas that have a high altitude and temperature gradient and at the same time have a high flow coefficient. The IDOI method performs best for sub-basins that have a high runoff to rainfall ratio. As this ratio decreases below 0.2, the IDOI method is likely to produce poorer results. The Coutagine method showed a moderate performance in most of the studied areas, which suggests that it can be employed to produce conservative results in many areas under study. 

The external processes of the earth and the resulting forms are basically a function of the climatic conditions prevailing in each region (Ramesht & Kazemi, 2007). There is a special connection between the climate and the shape of the roughness. In other words, in each realm, the main face of the rugged forms is under the influence of an evolving system and that system has functioned as a prevailing climatic condition in that land (Mahmoudi, 2007, p. 19). Karst geomorphology studies the specific morphological and hydrological features of soluble rocks (mostly carbonate), (Zanganeh Asadi et al., 2002). Climate change is one of the characteristics of the Quaternary period that has led to changes in shaping systems and consequently in the land form (Nematollahi, 2003, p. 12). The change has occurred intermittently (Jafar Beigloo et al., 2014). In the cold periods of the Pleistocene in the northwestern part of the Zagros region, a glacial and adjacent glacial process, and in the southeast of the eastern part, the river process have been the causes of changes in the face of roughness. But now the northwestern part of Zagros has mountainous weather. For this reason, the adjacent glacier process at the level of the hills and the river process in the thalwegs are considered to be the main elements of the formation (Alaeetalaghani, 2012, p. 135). The present study aimed to investigate the physiographic characteristics of Zagros sub-basins in relation to karstization conditions.

Drainage systems and river landscapes react in various ways to the physical characteristics of the catchment. In this paper, according to karst characteristics and the effect of dissolution on the basin in terms of physiographic characteristics, sub-basin shape parameters such as slope and roughness coefficient, along with topographic parameters in Arc Map 10.3 environment were extracted. Basic parameters including environment, area, minimum and maximum, the height and length of the canals of the basins were estimated. The results were entered into Excel 2013 software and their status was analyzed at different altitudes and climates.

The most important factor for creating karst is the presence of carbonate dissolved masses. Therefore, in this study, calcareous areas were first identified in Zagros. In general, limestone in Zagros was approximately 43% of its area, equivalent to 121270.8 km2, which was the highest in the middle of Zagros. Due to the vast amount of the study area and its placement in the wet currents and the Mediterranean and Sudanese cyclones, the western slopes of Zagros received more rainfall and humidity than the eastern slopes (Alijani, 2003). According to the precipitation and temperature maps of Zagros, the annual precipitation varied between 250 to 900 mm and the annual temperature varied from -1 to 26 ° C. In order to study the conditions of Karsts of Zagros, temperature and precipitation maps were classified. The values of these parameters were classified into five classes according to the conditions of the basins. Parameters such as the ratio of rippling, slope, circle ratio, form factor, basin length, and elongation were placed in the best possible condition. This coefficient was closer to the 1. Geometrically, the basin was closer to the circle. In square-shaped basins, the shape and form factor of the basin was equal to one.

In general, the study of the physiographic characteristics of the sub-basins in the climatic classes showed that when the karstification conditions become more climatically favorable, the shapes and landforms become circular and take on an elongated shape. Due to the climatic differences of the classes and the shape of karst landforms, terms such as water-water basin and glacial-water basin can be used. This means that in higher areas where the climatic conditions are favorable and very favorable for the karstification system, under the influence of the glacier, the dissolution action was more concentrated and in-depth, and karst-glacial forms were created. And at lower altitudes, due to the greater role of runoff in the karst-fiction process, the dissolution was at a higher level than the depth. The roughness coefficient was reduced and the shape of the karst complication was closer to the circle.

Maize is the third most widely-used product in the world, which is classified as a tropical and subtropical cereal. Among maize varieties, the single cross hybrid 704 has high efficiency and yield. Environmental conditions, climatic factors, in particular, considerably affect the growth of maize and its phenological responses, among which temperature and light are two very important variables affecting growth rate and eventually influence the bio-production rate and product yield. The best method to optimally use the environment without spending major costs is an adaptation to climatic conditions. This adaptation is achieved by determining agricultural climates and recognizing these climates within agricultural climatic zones and is a valuable tool for controlling climatic potentials for crop production. The present study research aims to find the thermal requirements of single cross hybrid 704 in Darab, Zarghan, Rudan and Arzoieh climates to define the thermal requirements of various stages of growth for its planting potential in southern Iran. 

To conduct the present study, the minimum, maximum, and average temperatures of 61 synoptic weather stations were obtained from the Iran Meteorological Organization, the statistical period of which varied from 1 to 30 years (1986-2016) and were examined in terms of validity. The statistics and information on the 10 main stages of single cross hybrid 704 phenology, which have been recorded in the Agricultural Meteorological Research and Monitoring Farm of Darab, Zarghan and Rudan, Arzooieh stations from 2001 to 2017, were given. These stages include planting, germination, greening, three-leaf, leafing, male catkin emergence, male clustering, silking, milk, and ripening.Date, the number of days, average temperature, and daily heat index were determined based on cumulative growing degree-day of single cross hybrid 704 in each phenological stage in Darab, Zarghan, and Rudan Arzooieh stations (statistical period 2001-2017). Then, the authors take into account the starting planting date in each region by reaching the average daily temperature of 15°C and the average temperature above 10°C after planting to meet the required growth temperature and avoid damage to the plant. To do this research, the average temperature (over 20 years) was calculated by MATLAB software for all days of the year based on the solar calendar. Then, 15-day averages were obtained for all months of the year. The relationship between temperature and altitude in linear regression was calculated by SPSS software. Hot inhibitor temperature (above 38°C) and cold inhibitor temperature (below 10°C) were determined and plotted. Cumulative growing degree-day of plant and the number of days in each phenological stage were calculated for all stations and the relevant maps were plotted. Finally, the map of desirable areas was combined with the land use map, height, and slope in terms of temperature supply.

According to the information obtained, the starting date of maize planting was plotted as a zoned map for all southern regions of the country in the GIS environment. The thermal requirements for planting during the year are met in a part of the southern shores and Shahdad Desert with an altitude of less than 500 m with very hot and humid weather as explained in the climate of the region. In other regions, this crop is provided depending on the climate, hot/cold, and low/high latitude, from the first half of February to the second half of May. This research has been done by developing a crop calendar for this product for the first and second planting in different regions. The first planting date in cold regions began with an altitude above 2000 m in the second half of May. In this region, due to the cold weather, maize can be selected only as the first crop. From the first half of June, maize planting begins in the regions with hot and temperate climates. After determining the planting time for maize in each region, the required days of maize from planting to ripening were calculated based on the total energy obtained in terms of growing degree-day in the southern region of Iran and mapped in 4 vital stages. Thelength of catkin emergence was 51-98 days, silking was 8-25 days, milk was 10-24 days, and ripening was 15-60 days. In some areas, the thermal requirement was not met for the milk stage and ripening, thus, the plant growth period would remain unfinished.The hot inhibitory temperatures in all coastal areas (except for Jask, Bandar Abbas, Khamir, Dayyer, and Bandar Lengeh) were possible from the second half of May to September. The cold inhibitor temperature in areas such as the high altitudes ofLalehzarinKerman and the cities of Izadkhast, Eghlid, Safashahr, and Bavanat in the north of Fars province with a cold and temperate climate in mountainous and foothill areas, began from the second half of October.According to the maps, the study area was divided into 4 regions in terms of capacity to meet thermal requirements during the growing season including very favorable areas, favorable areas, partly favorable areas, and unfavorable areas.By integrating the layers of favorable areas for maize planting based on meeting the thermal requirements, height, slope, and land use in the study area, the final map was plotted. The results of the study showed that very favorable areas covered 12% of the study area and are very favorable in terms of temperature, topography, and land use. Concerning favorable areas, this region covered 8% of the total study area. In these areas, the topography and land use were partly suitable and the thermal requirements were met at all maize planting stages, but the length of the milk stage was longer. In partly favorable areas, sufficient growing degree-day is not met for full ripening. The partly favorable areas have covered 3% of the study area. In unfavorable areas, thermal conditions, land use, land slope, and altitude for this crop were not suitable. 

By comparing the results of this research and other studies conducted in this region and the reports of the Ministry of Agriculture Jihad, it can be observed that this method has a similar outcome with other methods and models. About 23% of the study area is capable of maize planting. The farmer or promoter can select the most appropriate planting date for the crop by finding the place of maize planting on the maps and achieve the occurrence time of all phenological stages by finding the date. The reviews indicate that if the planting date is not adjusted in accordance to conditions of meeting the thermal requirements of the plant in its phenological phases in the study area, the plant is forced to change the length of each phase to acquire the required thermal units and this will disrupt the growth process and cause heat or cold stresses.

Rivers react to subsidence at their baseline by cutting and digging topographic features. The development of an upstream incision is often accompanied by a steep fracture called a river break (Loget & Van Den Driessche, 2009). The presence of river breaks in a geographical landscape is an indication of a steady-state in river systems. Therefore, the presence of knickpoints shows the system instability. The study of knickpoints can be used in the field of studies related to the evolution of valleys, identification of tectonic active areas and rock outcrops, river surface changes, erosion and sedimentation, and geomorphological changes in river systems. The basin studied in this study is located in the Qaleh Shahrokh-Chelgard area in the northeastern part of Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province, Iran. The reason for selecting this basin is the extensive activities of the Zagros fault along the northwest-southeast and the existence of a hydrographic network affected by the trend of faults and the potential for knickpoints.  

In this study, the locations of knickpoints were detected from the Radiometrically Terrain-Corrected (RTC) model which is extracted from the active microwave sensor ALOS PALSAR with a spatial resolution of 12 meters (Logan et al., 2014) as input data to the MATLAB executive toolbox called Tec DEM. Tec DEM is an executable toolbox in MATLAB software and uses a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) as input for morphotectonics in the basin. Tec DEM tool can be used in a variety of fields in the analysis of surface anomalies, drainage network and surface dynamics of basins, production of base maps, incisions (local roughness), vertical dissection and drainage density of basins and sub-basins, determination of turning points or knickpoints, hypsometric analysis and slope and concavity index of canal profiles (Shahzad & Gloaguen, 2011). The determination of knickpoints according to the shape of the longitudinal profile of the river is done semi-automatically. In this study, these points in the study areas were investigated according to field observations. In this study, geological variables and geomorphic variables related to knickpoints were used to identify the knickpoints. Information layers including geology, distance from the fault, distance from the boundary of geological formations, surface roughness index, fractal dimension, base surfaces, local roughness, and the vertical dissection as predictor variables and the layers of knickpoints as the prediction variables were used for modeling. For geological and tectonic studies of the region, geological maps of 100,000 sheets of Chadegan and Fereydunshahr and 250,000 sheets of Shahrekord were used. A total of 8 raster layers were used to analyze and predict the possibility of the presence of a knickpoint in the study area. Since 8 layers have different units and are not suitable as direct input for logistic regression, the input parameters were normalized in the range of 0 to 1. Nominal layers, such as geological data, became sequential variables between 0 and 1. All of these layers were then re-sampled as a network format with a cell size of 195*195 m using the nearest neighbor method, to allow all layers to be combined. Then, a matrix of square cell structure was prepared for the study area. It consisted of a matrix of 273 rows and 273 columns representing a total of 39,650 cells. Of these, 74 cells were identified as knickpoint points. These areas were identified with code 1 (presence of knickpoint) and the rest of the cells that did not have knickpoints were recorded with code 0 (absence of knickpoint).  

The probabilistic relationship of the presence of a knickpoint as one of the important results of the research was obtained by the logistic regression method. This relationship predicted the probability of the presence of knickpoints based on geological and geomorphic variables. The probability map of the knickpoints in the study area was obtained based on the statistical relationship. According to the results, there is a possibility of river knickpoints in the southwestern regions and parts of the northeastern Basin. The results of the probability ratio test to determine the statistical significance of each of the independent variables in the proposed model showed that the geology and the distance from the boundaries of the geological formations in the model were significant. The results of the Yuden index for the training dataset, validation, and test data were equal to 0.72, 0.76, and 0.66, respectively, which indicated the accurate information on the probability status of knickpoint points, especially for the test data of the model. The results of the Kappa agreement coefficient for training, validation, and test data were also equal to 0.62, 0.73, and 0.60, respectively, which indicated the agreement of both methods with the observed values ​​of knickpoints.  

The results of this study showed that at the boundary of lithology, because of the presence of joints and cracks due to differences in the type of rocks, the probability of the presence of river break was more than other parts of the region. Although the presence of some relatively high slope knickpoints indicated active tectonics in that area, in the present study, the effect of the fault system or active tectonics in the formation of knickpoints was not statistically significant. Particularly, the reduction of local roughness index and baselines was associated with less tectonic activity, but in this study, the appearance of knickpoints has been associated with a decrease in these two factors.

The forest area of northern Iran is located in the Alborz structural zone. Because of active tectonics of the Alborz Zone, many morphotectonic structures have been developed in the forest area. Among these structures, we can mention the important faults that occurred in this region, such as the Caspian fault and the North Alborz fault, or numerous landslides. The study of geological and morphotectonic studies in forest areas is very difficult due to the presence of tree cover on the soil surface and the impediment to direct observation of the landform and the ground. Therefore, the use of conventional methods of geotechnical studies such as optical satellite image processing in these areas does not work. Compared to traditional methods, the use of radar data in ground-level studies is one of the relatively new approaches in the field of remote sensing science that takes advantage of more capabilities in this field. In addition to using radar data to determine the amount of displacement that occurred at the ground level due to various factors, this data can also be used to prepare a high-precision digital elevation model, a model that directly reflects bare surface properties and extracts very useful information, especially when the land is covered by forests and trees.

An openness technique expressing the degree of dominance or enclosure of a location on an irregular surface was developed by Yokoyama et al. (2002). This technique calculates an angular measure of the relationship between surface relief and horizontal distance. It uses the horizontal surface distance and elevation-related angle to compute the slope information of an irregular terrain surface at different positions, and the results can be used to identify the topographic features of the area. This method calculates the zenith and nadir angles at equally spaced locations in eight azimuth directions from the line of sight of the terrain. RRIM is a new 3D visualization approach proposed by Chiba et al. An RRIM is a multi-layered illumination-free image that can be used to simultaneously visualize topographic slopes, concavities, and convexities. The basic concept of an RRIM is to multiply three landform element layers: topographic slopes, positive openness, and negative openness. An RRIM is generated using an overlay of a red-colored slope map on the I-value map. The red color is used to describe the slope angle because it has been empirically demonstrated to provide the richest tone for human eyes. This overlay highlights the 3D topography on a single image, where the I-value performs an illumination role and the saturation of red describes the steepness of the topography.

By performing radar interferometry technique on ALOS/PALSAR images, a digital elevation model of 12 meters from the study area was prepared. The shaded relief maps obtained from different elevation models have been compared. Based on the results, the RRIM model of an area along the North Alborz Fault shows evidence of displacement caused by this fault. The fault wall of the North Alborz fault has been identified. The fault line is marked with yellow arrows. It shows a range of 30 km that has been displaced. In order to identify the landslides occurring in the study area, a 12 m digital elevation model and the RRIM method were used. Landslide areas with yellow arrows are shown. These landslides occur mostly in areas close to the main waterways and in areas with a higher slope. The location of the 3 areas identified by this method is on the landslide map of the country and is approved. The red dots are the landslide ranges and the blue circles are the landslide positions identified in this study that are completely in agreement with the landslides.

In forested areas, due to dense tree cover, the study of surface features and phenomena is limited. As a result, it is difficult to map topographically in these areas. But, radar images can be very helpful in such cases because they can capture data from under the cover of trees. The results of applying the interference method on the mentioned radar images led to the preparation of a digital elevation model of 12 meters above the ground in the study area. Since the common methods used in the display and analysis of geomorphology have shortcomings such as deformation of surface features, as a result of changes in the direction of lighting, in this study, the openness method and RRIM were used. These methods overcome the limitations of older methods and provide better capabilities. Field surveys conducted in the study area and adaptation of the identified landslides to the landslide location map of the country indicate the confirmation of the efficiency of the methods used in this study. Therefore, these methods can be used in similar areas.

The gardenalley is popular, poetic, and full of natural and literary feelings that has a prominent place in poetry and literature. Alleyways in traditional architecture and urban gardens are also considered authentic patterns, beautiful, artistic, poetic, and relaxing spaces. The pattern in the present era has been replaced by non-western and western-style urban architecture and decay. In traditional Iranian cities, most residential contexts had gardens that transformed residential textures into neighborhood gardens or a combination of buildings and green areas.

The purpose of the present study was to investigate the gardenalley as a model of urban design in Iranian cities. In this regard, the most important question of this article is: What is the position of gardenalleys in the design of local and urban contexts in Iran? The research method used in this research is historical-analytical with a logical reasoning approach based on documentary study methods. Library and case studies have also been carried out.

Evaluation criteria can be considered in the mentioned design with slight changes. These changes are limited to adding a literary component and separating function into two components: land use and activity, and access and movement. Therefore, the dimensions of the present research are historical, literary, spatial-physical, semantic, environmental, objective, mental, access, movement, use, activity, cultural, social, and spiritual-psychological perspectives. The resulting conceptual framework can be used to evaluate case studies from the perspective of users and clients. According to the results of the analysis of questionnaires and research surveys, the Sardrood Garden Alley had a high average score in terms of environmental quality. The average score of the respondents on the human and environmental qualities of the garden alleys was between 90% and 100%. This evaluation indicated the high human and environmental qualities in the garden alley pattern and showed the satisfaction of users in various human and environmental dimensions.

The results of the present study indicated that garden alleys in the traditional Iranian architecture and urban design have been integral parts of the urban texture which are still considered as a part of many rural and urban contexts. The artificial texture of the villages and towns has been gradually established through garden alleys to the texture of the gardens and fields. With a humane, literary, and nature-based approach to the spaces of villages, towns, and cities, we can help to institutionalize the pattern of garden alleys through planning and designing strategies. These include: preserving the natural heritage of the gardens and the alleyways of the garden, observing privacy and ownership, streamlining the gardens with a catering garden pattern, urban design of the alleyways, creativity in the design of the garden alley, and anticipating the garden alley in urban recreation.

Nowadays, due to the widespread effects of climate on various sectors of production, environmental factors, and human societies, climate change is recognized as one of the most important environmental challenges of the 21st century with serious economic consequences. According to the available evidence, climate change will occur in different parts of Iran and will inevitably affect the agricultural sector. Fars province is one of the most important agricultural areas in Iran. The occurrence of drought is one of the characteristics of climatic conditions in Fars province, which along with the lack of water resources has created restrictions for the production of agricultural products. Therefore, it is necessary to estimate the economic consequences of agricultural activity due to climate change in this province. This study was conducted under a balanced greenhouse gas emission (B1) scenario according to the IPCC 2013 report and used an endogenous mathematical programming model up to 2100.  

To simulate the effects of a policy or environmental change, it is necessary to compare the the current situation (reference condition) and the post-change situation. For this analysis to be valid, the policy analysis model should simulate the observed values ​​as much as possible in the base year. For this purpose, the positive mathematical programming model (PMP) was used. In this model, the relationship between the economic variables in the agricultural sector with climatic parameters and strategies can be modeled. Therefore, a 28-year historical period from 1987 to 2015 was considered with the year 2009 as the base year of production and import due to the appropriate time interval between the beginning and end of the period and the special conditions of production and import. For this purpose, the environmental agro-zoning prepared by FAO was used. Based on the zoning of the ecological agro-zone, FAO has divided Iran's agricultural regions into 10 different regions. Given that Iran is a developing country with vast energy resources, it can be considered a growth model by pressing on natural resources. According to the climatic conditions proposed by the IPCC, the amount of carbon dioxide emissions is forecast for economic growth in the country. The greenhouse gas emission (SRES-B1) scenario used in this study was based on two global circulation models -- HadCM3 and IPCM4, with the highest population growth occurring in the middle of the century and rapid growth in the sector. According to this scenario, the CO2 concentration will not change much and the temperature will rise between 1.1 and 2.9 ° C.  

According to the results of the study, the area under total crops will decrease by 0.017 percent compared to the base year (2009) to 1.388 million hectares in 2100. According to the results, the area under total crops will decrease by 0.017 percent compared to the base year (2009) to 1.388 million hectares in 2100. Also, the area under cultivation of wheat (1.8%), barley (0.4%), summer crops (1.4%), and legumes (1.2%) will increase. In contrast, the area under cultivation of potato crops (4.9%), onions (5.8%), sugar beet (5.8%), and cotton (3.3%) will decrease. Also wheat, rice, legumes, vegetables, potatoes, onions, tomatoes, sugar, cotton, red meat, milk, chicken, and eggs will have price increase by 28.43%, 25.34%, 12.8%, 24.67%, 27.8%, 25.45%, 22.28%, 23.27%, 19.8%, 39.45%, 18.25%, 23.54%, and 27.45%, respectively. These results show that the increase in the price of group 1 products is much lower than the second group, which according to the results of the study may be due to the further increase in the area under cultivation of group 1 products and changes in consumption of these products. Changes in the area under cultivation and consumption woul affect the export and import of such products with the import of wheat, barley, rice, corn, meat, legumes, and oilseeds declining while exports are slightly increasing. In contrast, sugar and cotton products would show an increase in imports compared to the base year of 2009. Also, according to the findings of this study, under a balanced greenhouse gas emission scenario, by comparing the area under cultivation, consumption will increase. In addition,  with the export of some crops (about 5%), consumer welfare increases by 0.2% (39874 billion rials) and the welfare of producers as a result of higher prices of products and increase in their consumption increase by 0.9% (about 25127.3 rials).  

The results of this study show that the total area under cultivation of crops in Fars province will reach about 1.388 million hectares per year, which compared to the area under cultivation observed in the base year of 2009 shows a decrease of about 0.017 million hectares. It is necessary to mention that according to the statistics of the Ministry of Jihad Agriculture, the area under cultivation of the province's crops in 2019 was 1.3 million hectares, which has decreased by about 0.1 million hectares compared to the base year of 2009. But, according to the results of this study, by 2100, the area under cultivation will reach 1.388 million hectares, which compared to 2019, will increase by 0.088 million hectares. Given the equilibrium scenario used in this study, it is assumed that the amount of greenhouse gas emissions will have a steady trend over the next 8 decades. Therefore, this increase is not unexpected according to this assumption.