فصلنامه تحقیقات اقتصادی
پیاپی 53 (پاییز و زمستان 1377)

The purpose of this article is to evaluate the Pivotal Irrigated Wheat Project by Cost-Benefit Analysis method in order to find the internal rate of return and the ratio of Present Value of net benefits to costs.To this end, we have estimated the economic surplus created due to shift in wheat supply , as result ofimplementation ofthe Project and have calculated the above criteria. We found that IRR and PV of Net Benefits to Cost ratio under two alternative foreign exchange rate and appropriate supply elasticity range economically justify the Project

Regarding articles 134 and 138 of the constitutional Law and in accordance with the notes of 4-37, 8-1, 8-2 and 8-3 of the general policies from the first section of the First Five Year Economic Plan, in order to increase efficiency in public enterprises, reduce the size of the government and its intervention in non necessary economic activities, to create economic equilibrium, and to optimize resource allocation, the cabinet ofministeres approved the policy ofpublic enterprises transfers in 1989. During 1989-1995 ministries, organizations, foundations, and etc succeeded to trasfer about 3789676 million rials to private sector, public enterprises and the government. Outofwhicb 51.8% has been transfered through Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE), and 48.2% through actions and negotiations. From the total transfered amount, 82.1% is.pertinent to three organizations including: National Industries Organization ofIran with the share of 45.7%, Industries and MiningBank with the share of 19.5% and Development and Renovation Industries Organization ofIran with the share of 16.9%. Other organizations share amounts to 17.9%. Out of 82.1% of the mentioned transfers 49.9% is pertinent to private sector and 50.1% is allocated to public enterprises, organizations and foundations. It is noteworthing that out of 3789676 million rials transfers, only 155657 million rials (about 4.1%) has been transfered to public employers and workers.

This paper analyzes the effects ofexchange policies on Iran,s foreign trade, by applying new econometric techniques. In assessing the impacts of depreciation of the national currency on macroeconomic variable, the real rather than nominal exchange rate has been determined to be more appropriate criterion to demonstrate the success or failure ofthe adopted policies. During the period under the study, trade balance improvements and its sustainity are contingent on the persistent appreciation of the real exchange rate (depreciation ofthe real value ofthe national currency) during the various periods oftime. Notably, the consistency between monetary and financial policies from one hand and exchange policies from the other hand is a necessary condition for maintaining such appreciation. The results of this study reveal that the lags of money stock ank import variables will significantly explaine the change in the non-oil exports. Furthermore, production variable, in the relevant equation, is influenced only by its own lags. This means that, during the period under the consideration, the monetary and exchange policies have not played an important role in fluctuations of the production. Ultimately, within import equation, the import will megerly be influenced by exchange rate lags. This phenomenon can be explained by the fact during the period under the study, import restriction, as a dominant variable, has played a key role in import changes in Iran. Overall, the results from the study on non-oil export,import and production denote that exchange policies and exchange rate ,movements do not play such an important role in changes of these variables

Using nonlinear mathematical analysis, on the data obtained for.time seriesof Shahd-Iran Price during 3.5 years, the characteristics,of the process associated with this, is analysed. Analysing the behaviour of the time series associated with returns is indicative ofits short-term predictability nature. However, employing analysis regarding the correlation dimension estimate. It is indicated that, only time series ofprice (returns) is not adequate for prediction and other appropriate variables must also be used. The correlation dimensionestimate indicates the complexity ofthe prediction model Also, Largest Lyapunov Exponent analysis, reveals a weakly chaotic behaviour and indicates that price data cannot be used in the prediction process after a certain time.

The interaction between nominal and real sectors is studied based on estimating a simultaneous co-integrated system including foreign and domestic prices, real output, liquidity and exchange rate variables. Two co -integrating vectors namely augmented PPP and demand for money functions are identified. The results suggest that real output is a weakly exogeneous variable and relatively the leading variable being the most exogeneous ofall. All the nominal variables have to bear the burden of short-run adjustment (to long-term trend) endogeneously in different proportions in order to bring the system back to its long-term equilibrium. Our more or less broad substantive finding that output predominatly leads(rather than lags) money supply and the other variables appear to be consistent more with neoclassical or real business cycle approach than with the doctrines as the structuralist. This Finding has strongpolicy implications for any accommodative or excessive monetary expansion since it is likely to be dissipated in terms of relatively higher nominal variables such as prices or exchange rate rather than output. Our more or less broad substantivefinding that output predominatly leads(rather than lags) money supply and the other variables appearto be consistent more with neoclassical or real business cycle approach than with the doctrines as the structuralist. This.Finding has strong policy implications for any accommodative or excessive monetary expansion since it is likely to be dissipated in terms of relatively higher nominal variables such as prices or exchange rate rather than output

The problem of aggregation over micro units has had along tradition in the econometrics Literature, streching backto the pioneering work of Theil (1954). In this Literature two issues in particular have attracted attention. The first concentrates on the przdiction problem of choosing whether to use macro or micro equations to predict aggregate variables. This issue was raised by Grunfeld and Griliches (1960) and is further addressed in a recent paper by pesaran, pierse and kumar (1989) (P.P.K). In PPK a generalised prediction criterion and a formal statistical test of hypothesis of perfect aggregation are developed. The present thesis considers the second accelleration mechanism, then by useing the above methods; restricted disaggregated equations are estimated. Imposition ofrestrictions, in the calculation and testing ofaggregation bias, provide intersting results. In additions the null hypothesis ofaggregation bias has been rejected in %1 significance level.