نشریه مدیریت بحران
سال دهم شماره 1 (پیاپی 19، بهار و تابستان 1400)

Torrential rains because of the suddenness of damage in different parts of the infrastructure, construction and agriculturalareas of high rainfall regions of our country, especially in Regions with abundant rainfall. In the presentstudy, we have identified sea level pressure patterns and analyzed the synoptic and thermodynamic conditions of superheavy rainfall days in Golestan province.For this purpose, first, using ground station data and taking into account twothreshold conditions above 98% percentile and over 50% incidence, 15 days of super heavy rainfall were extracted duringthe spring of the 1970–2019 statistical period.Sea level pressure data are extracted on 0.25 /0 0.25 degree arc cells at 10 to70 degrees north latitude and 10 to 90 degrees east longitude from the European Mid-Term Forecast Center (ECMWF)Were. Cluster analysis by Ward integration method was performed on the sea level compressibility matrix data for15 days of super heavy rainfall and 3 synoptic pressure patterns observed during spring super heavy rainfalls eventsof Golestan province. The results of the synoptic analysis of the maps showed that during the heavy rainfall events,tabs of cold pressures based on Europe, Russia and Siberia and multi-core warm pressures located in the Arctic, mideasternregions of Iran, Pakistan and Aral and Balkhash Lake are spread northeast of Iran and Golestan province.Theseconditions have created active frontal zones and consequently severe pressure gradient in northeast and atmosphere ofGolestan province and have led to super heavy rainfall days in the study area. The results of moisture flux convergencefunction analysis also showed that the highest moisture flux convergence was at lower atmospheric levels (1000 and850 hPa) and by Caspian, the Persian Gulf and Oman water resources, respectively. But in the middle levels of theatmosphere (700 and 500 hPa) with the zonal atmospheric currents, In addition to the Caspian Sea, Mediterranean andBlack seas sources have also been responsible for the moisture supply of these rainfalls.

Various factors such as overcrowding, land leveling and occupation of rivers along with climatic factorsin urban areas have caused urban flooding .The city of Ilam is no exception; This has caused a lot ofdamage to residential areas, roads, fields and farmlands over the past few years. The purpose of this studyis to evaluate and zoning flood-prone areas in Ilam. For this purpose, criteria such as slope, geological features,topography, streamflows, soil and land use were selected, weighted and standardized by hierarchicalanalysis and fuzzy model.Then, zoning map with overlapping the weighted maps for each criterion was preparedin the GIS. Final analysis of the map shows that the north and northwest areas have the highest potentialfor flood risk. The results also showed that 0.60% of the total area are in very high vulnerability categoryand 6.29% in high vulnerability class, 20.92% in the average vulnerability class, 50.23% in low vulnerabilityclass and 21.95% in the very least vulnerable category.

Food supply chain management is very vital due to its high scale in industry, amount of wastage of food in theworld and relationship between wastage of food and under-nourishment. It consists of producing the food andmanufacturing companies, whole sale and distributors, brokers, food service places, restaurants and retail groceryfirms. Studying perishable goods in a supply chain can be helpful for industries that are related to these kinds ofgoods. Because of the important role of location and routing in a supply chain, unity of these elements leading toan efficient supply chain. Recently, multi-layer and multi-facility problems in a supply chain have been studiedin large scale. Connection between facilities (i.e., the best flow allocating between facilities and vehicle routingfor supplying the perishable foods) is one of the key subjects for this problem. This paper studies a perishable foodsupply chain network with disruption risk including the location of facilities, allocating flow between facilitiesand routing decisions. It also presents a multi-objective model to minimize the operational costs (e.g., openingcost, route repairing cost during the disruption and unsatisfied demands cost), minimize the response time, andmaximize the reliability of minimum routes. Validity of the model is investigated by the ε-constraint method inGams. Since this problem is an NP-hard one, the NSGA-II is used for solving this problem in large sizes. Finally,to show the efficiency of the proposed model, a real case study including 10 zone of district 1 of Tehran is applied.

One of the most significant issues nowadays is natural disasters and their severe and devastating vital and financial effect. As in crisis situations, the time required to service and deliver relief goods is extremely limited, therefore, with regard to existing restrictions, the need to define special conditions for relief with a view to alleviating casualties is clearly evident. This research in the scope of a service supply chain defines a vital mobile medical service system based on the definition of mobile hospitals that serve patients with medical priorities in the affected areas. The two objectives of minimizing relief cost and service time, which are based on economic and social criteria, respectively, are intended to define the distribution locations, the optimal route of hospital delivery, and also the capacity of hospitals to serve in case of casualty. The problem model is solved using the constraint method by considering the objective function of the service time as the main objective, and the Pareto frontier of the model solution is presented.

Natural disasters are a major challenge in achieving sustainable development in human societies. Such disastershave the potential to become devastating for human communities in the absence of risk reductionsystems. Generally, this impact is so widespread because of the very complex interconnections between the varioussystems of human societies and causes many damages to various parts including body, community, cultureand identity. Despite the time of many of these disasters is unpredictable, it is possible to reduce the vulnerabilityto the least possibility by providing a comprehensive and deep understanding of such events in the affected communityand thereby reach to a sustainable society through resilience in the face of such phenomena. Increasingthe resilience of the cities against natural disasters, especially earthquakes, is greatly effective in reducing thesedamages as well as in the recovery time of communities. Meanwhile, urban planners and managers as the mostimportant institutions involved in the design of cities can play an essential role in increasing resilience of urbancommunities against the earthquakes. The purpose of this study is to assess the resilience of Noorabad Mamasanicity against natural disasters with emphasis on earthquakes. Data analysis performed using SPSS software andone sample t-test and one-way ANOVA. The results of this study showed that the areas are significantly differentin terms of economic, physical, institutional and social index and Noorabad Mamasani is desirable in terms ofphysical, social and institutional resilience but is undesirable in terms of economic.

The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of social capital on resilience with the mediating role of organizational citizenship behavior against natural disasters (Case study: Red Crescent Society staff in Kermanshah). The statistical population of the study included 108 employees of the Red Crescent Organization of Kermanshah, who were selected as the statistical sample by statistical sampling method. In order to collect the required data, the standard questionnaire of organizational behavior behavior was used by Podsakoff and Mackenzie (1993), the standard questionnaire of social capital model of Nahabit and Goshal (1998) and the resilience questionnaire of Connor and Davidson (2003). Using Cronbach’s alpha, the reliability of the questionnaires is as follows; Cronbach’s alpha is 0.77 for organizational citizenship behavior, 0.84 for social capital alpha, and Cronbach’s alpha for regression is 0.89. The validity of the questionnaires was confirmed using the content method and also the standardization of the questionnaires was confirmed by the confirmatory and exploratory factor analysis method. Spss21 inferential statistical method was used to analyze the data and Pearson test was used to investigate the relationship between the components and multivariate regression and path analysis test were used to confirm or reject the research hypotheses. The results of the study showed a significant relationship between social capital and resilience and organizational citizenship behavior. This means that Moore’s research hypotheses have been confirmed, but organizational citizenship behavior has not been confirmed as a mediating role.

Cities, as the most complex and widespread man-made structure, have always been exposed to many natural and human disasters. In the meantime, natural disasters, especially earthquakes, which are among the most devastating unpredictable hazards, have often caused massive damage and irreparable casualties on these settlements and its residents; which it is necessary to reduce its damages by urban retrofitting. The present research is in the field of applied-exploratory researches. The research method is objective and cognitive; and is of a descriptive- analytical-comparative nature. Study process is designed to first identify the earthquake resiliency criteria by reviewing multiple studies and then collecting the necessary data through questionnaire. After data quantization, the necessary information is entered into the GIS software and IDW analyzing method, then the layers are weighted using Fuzzy logic; In the final section of the analysis, after applying the coefficients of the layers and based on the topsis model and their overlap, the level of resilience of the neighborhoods of the study area has been calculated. The results of these studies, which are presented in the form of a zoning map from the regional resonance spatial analysis, show that the resilience level is not the same in all neighborhoods. Baharestan and Ferdowsi neighborhoods are in a unfavorable situation, neighborhoods of the Ghiam, Kowsar and Abshar have a favorable situation; and other neighborhoods are also in a moderate position compared to physical resiliency, which need to be prioritized, in order to irreparable damage in their respective policies and decisions.

The occurrence of abnormal incidents, such as accidents, fires, landslides, falling structures, etc., hascaused a lot of life and financial losses due to different reasons and lack of planning in a timely manner. In themeantime, schools are considered as educational places and environments for the development of the country’s futuretalent, and due to high population density, they are considered to be places of high importance. Safety and disastermanagement is one of the key issues in risk management and human resource and material resources, according towhich the managers of the organization should try to keep the environment of their forces out of any danger. The occurrenceof bad disasters in the country’s schools shows that safety and related issues are not being actively pursuedand a review of the existing safety management approach for schools is an essential requirement. There is some weaknessin the incident command system (ICS) for schools which must to be surveyed. The aim of this research is analysisthe weakness and complexity system of making decision in schools incident command system. A quantitative contentanalysis is use to extract the influence factors for failures in incident command system. Then, try to determine thespecific causes of the failures in such introduced systems by a fault tree analysis method. It is concluded that a nativeconceptual model might be considered as sustainable development model in such system.

It is the potential of the media in managing social crisis with the tools of mass communication in the shadow of the rightmanagement in them and on them that can become real. Crisis in the absence of proper management can cause irreparabledamage, so the researcher in this study with the main purpose of this study is to provide media management modelson television in the face of social crises that are components required in media management. Discuss social crisis management.This research was conducted based on the data method of the foundation and with the interview technique of thesenior managers of the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting Organization, which was selected by the targeted method.The theoretical basis of this research is based on the opinions of different thinkers in the form of social responsibility theory,media management roles, Heather’s equilibrium theory, two-stage flow and highlighting. Data analysis is also categorizedby the Strauss Foundation’s data method with three stages of open, central, and selective coding. The researchfindings indicate that mass media management in social crises is classified into four categories: management, gainingtrust, crisis and audience, so that categories related to each class, including strategic and psychological management,general and specific audiences, Competitive cyberspace competition and credible information, crisis type and crisis severityare set in the presented model. In addition, the results show that factors such as speed and honesty in information,the use of new methods to identify and reduce crisis damage, attention to various segments of society, promoting the spiritof participation, understanding the audience and the readiness of managers in crisis situations as components. They areeffective in managing social media in social crises. In general, considering the relationship between the categories in themodel obtained in the present study, it can be claimed that this set of factors, if placed in a proper organizational context,will be able to perform media managers in planning to deal with crises. Improve social.

After natural disasters, one of the most important aspects of recovery is to rebuild the affected small businesses andthat is the continuation of their activity. However, when natural disasters occur, the focus of the planners and executiveson recovery is usually physically focused and the neglect of small business recovery is neglected. As a result,recovery of small businesses is a major challenge in disastered areas, and choosing the right approach based on theeconomic, social and cultural conditions of the affected community is crucial. Accordingly, the purpose of this studywas to analyze the factors affecting the recovery of small businesses after the Kermanshah earthquake in 2017, usingthe phenomenological approach and the Colaizzi approach. To this end, the lived experiences of 36 affected urban andrural business owners were analyzed using in-depth semi-structured interviews using purposeful and criterion samplingmethods. In order to comply with the qualitative characteristics of the research, three criteria of acceptability,validity and Dependability were used. The results of the inductive content analysis of the data obtained from the interviewsidentified and prioritize the factors affecting small business recovery, including 157 concepts and h categoriesof factors affecting small business recovery including managerial and economic factors, Supervisory and executive,individual and organizational, cultural and social, infrastructure and process, legal and legitimate, informants, andexternal and non-native factors resulted. Research findings show that attention to factors affecting the recovery of affectedsmall businesses facilitates and accelerates their recovery process and provides the basis for survivors to surviveand earn money from trauma survivors.