فصلنامه تحقیقات مدلسازی اقتصادی
سال یازدهم شماره 43 (بهار 1400)

With the outbreak of the coronavirus in countries around the world and its rapid spread, governments have decided to impose restrictions and social distancing. Restrictions and closures of businesses and economic activities, and changes in supply and demand patterns during this period, have exacerbated concerns among economists. This article deals with the issue of changing primary energy consumption in 18 countries in the MENA region. To this end, 10 different scenarios of the future state of the disease and its limitations have been considered. The results show that according to the best scenario (rapid and complete improvement of the epidemic), Libya with 4.38% and Iraq with 3.39% will have the largest decrease, and according to the worst-case scenario (explosive disease exacerbation and complete quarantine), Libya with 12.6% and Syria with 12.3% will have the greatest reduction in primary energy consumption. The three countries, Syria, Lebanon, and Iran, also had the most differences in the pessimistic and optimistic scenario. Also, taking into account the total changes in the primary energy consumption of these 18 countries, according to the most optimistic scenario, the primary energy consumption will be reduced by 1.5% and according to the worst-case scenario, it will be reduced by 8.8%.

The main purpose of this paper is to measure the multidimensional inequality index. To achieve this goal and answer of what trend inequality has gone through during the study period, using the data of the household expenditure income plan of the statistical center of Iran and also using the Bourguignon index, inequality was measured in several dimensions for the period 1984-2018. In addition, it should be noted that in this study, household expenditures were initially adjusted based on age composition and number of household members by calculating the equivalence scale. This adjustment was made possible by estimating the share of expenditures of different commodity groups by considering its functional form in the the quadratic almost ideal demand system (QUAIDS). Then, using data mining techniques and Principal Component Analysis(PCA), the weight of the studied dimensions in the analysis (income, education and health) was calculated and when measuring inequality, the degree of social aversion of inequality was considered in the form of two scenarios, zero and one. the results of this study indicate that the magnitude of multidimensional inequality per zero value for both the degree of social aversion of inequality parameter and the degree of substitution parameter based on the Bourguignon, index is between 0.28 and 0.41 in urban areas and between 0.26 and 0.41 in rural areas. fluctuations in the Bourguignon index and the Gini index of income have not necessarily been similar. The findings of this study also showed that the size of multidimensional inequality in rural areas is lower than urban areas in most of the years studied. There is an approximate similarity between its trend in urban and rural areas. Inequality in the 1980s was higher than in other periods (despite higher oil revenues than in the previous and subsequent periods and more government shares transferred than in previous periods), in the early 1390s, declined, and then increased again. Finally, the research findings indicate the failure of the egalitarian goals of development programs and thus emphasize the need for a fundamental review of the forthcoming programs with more attention to distribution by the market institution rather than the government.

Banking system is one the important sectors of economy and as vital institution of money market, plays a very significant role. Also, due to the nature of the banking system performance, the activities of banks have a close relationship with the exchange rate changes. This paper tries to assess the effects of exchange rate variations on macroeconomic variables via the banking system using a macro-econometric model and approach of bounding ARDL during 1973-2017. The results indicated that an increase in the exchange rate through non-performance loans and long-term deposits will led to decreased credit providing by the banking system. On the other hand, an increase in the exchange rate through the net open position and banks’ capital account had a positive impact on banks’ credit provision. However, the negative impact of a change in the non-performance loans and long-term deposits is stronger than the positive impact of the net open position. In addition, the decreasing trend of providing credit by banking system had a negative effect on investment. Finally, an increase in the exchange rate causes a decrease in the long-term deposits and the money multiplier which has a negative effect on liquidity and price level. An increase in the exchange rate through the capacity utilitization rate had a negative impact on GDP. Also an increase in the exchange rate led to increased liquidity and price level.

After the victory of the Islamic Revolution and the capture of the spy nest, the West, and especially the United States, in addition to pursuing other tools, has also used the tools of sanctions and has implemented many sanctions against Iran. One type of sanctions is oil sanctions, which were imposed to force Iran to join the international community. The US and its allieschr('39') embargo on Iranian oil affects the variables of the Iranian and world economies. For this reason, a computable five-zone global trade model (GTAP) is used to calculate the implications of the game tree between the three independent actors of the United States, the European Union, and Iran. The closing of the GTAP model has been changed according to the assumptions used. The results show that the US, Iran and major oil buyers from Iran are damaged by the sanctions. This damage is exacerbated by increasing oil restrictions. With the escalation of sanctions, the European Union is also gaining negative welfare. In the Nash equilibrium, the United States and the European Union will choose weak sanctions, and Iran will try to circumvent the sanctions. Due to the economic costs of oil sanctions against Iran, the lack of full understanding between the United States and Europe, and Iranchr('39')s efforts to circumvent sanctions, it seems that the United States will not be able to reduce Iranchr('39')s oil exports to zero.

After the imposed war, Iranchr('39')s economy has seen two relatively successful experiences in controlling inflation. These two periods include the final years of the Third Development Program and the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) term. This is while we are seeing a relatively high inflation rate in other periods. In this paper, based on literature on monetary rules and using a Time-Varying Parameter Bayesian Structural Vector Auo Regressive (TVP-BSVAR) Model with stochastic volatilities, we study a rule-based monetary policy or a systematic monetary policy and a non-systematic monetary policy (based on the stochastic volatilities of monetary shocks). The results indicate that in addition to the systematic monetary policy obtained from the model, the success of monetary policymakers in controlling inflation is not only due to inflation control per se (thst is systematictic) but also for non-systematic reasons such as fiscal policy through fiscal discipline and oil revenue management by both monetary and fiscal policymakers that does not fit into the framework of systematic monetary policy.

Drugs as a strategic and subsidized commodity and an urgent need for patients have been constantly of particular importance, specially, in the health-care system of a society. On the other hand, one of the parameters concerning the assessment of the family welfare is the amount spent for satisfaction of divergent needs. The more a family spends on essential necessities such as food, housing, clothing and higher education, the less is expected to be devoted to health care. Concerning drugs, the demand for different drugs may vary depending on the patientschr('39') attitudes, the type of illnesses and their income elasticity. The objective of the present research is to investigate the demand for orphan drugs for refractory diseases regarding various income groups in Iran applying Agent-based Models (ABMs). In this research, the behavior dynamics of the orphan drugs applicants and the diversity of their demands in miscellaneous price scenarios resulting from inflation and fluctuations in the exchange rate have been scrutinized in accordance with ABM. To this end, one thousand family applicants for orphan drugs, extracted from Iranchr('39')s statistics center, were categorized in five different income ventiles. Their reactions towards the increase of the price of the aforementioned drugs are predicted based on Net Logo simulation software. The results indicate that the average of price elasticity of demand for generic and branded drugs has been -0.39 and -0.05 percent, respectively; similarly, the demand for these two drug groups has been decreased by the same amount. In the lowest income ventile as the price of generic and branded orphan drugs deceases, for the lowest income ventile families, the allocated expenses for these drugs has been decreased by 3.3 percent and 31.85 percent, respectively. The main reason for the aforementioned problem is assigned to the low budget of the patientschr('39') family and its allocation to essential necessities of life such as food and housing. The severity of the cost reduction in branded drugs is due to the fact that it can be replaced by generic drugs.

Identifying the behavior of business cycles and factors affecting business cycles has always been one of the most important issues in macroeconomics. Importance of business cycles and the unique economic structure of OPEC member countries, so, this article identifies the behavior of business cycles in these countries. This study uses Quantile Panel Regressions Model to examine the impact of variables such as government expenditure, trade openness, liquidity growth, oil prices and two dummy variables of the global recession and the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) agreement on the formation of business cycles in OPEC countries in the period 2000-2019. The results show that the values of the coefficients of each variable in different quantiles were significantly different from each other. Government expenditure and trade openness in the initial quantile has been in the agreed direction to the cycles and the End quantile opposite direction. The results of the effect of liquidity growth show that in the initial and end quantile has been agreed with direction to the cycles and in the middle quantile opposite direction to the cycles. Oil prices have also been agreed with the direction of the business cycles. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) agreement variable in the first quantile has a significant impact on business cycles and the global financial recession has also acted against cycles.