مجله تحقیقات منابع آب ایران
سال هفدهم شماره 2 (پیاپی 57، تابستان 1400)

Recognizing the moral norms is necessary to understand water crisis and have water protection behavior in today’s society. The aim of this research was to develop the theory of planned behavior and quantification of its components in order to assess the moral norms governing the participatory management of water resources. A questionnaire was used to collect information from Toshan and Galand villages. Descriptive-inferential statistics of the research were analyzed by SPSS and SmartPLS softwares and One-Sample Wilcoxon Nonparametric test. Then model components were ranked using Friedman test. At the end, the uncertainties of the components of the Modified Theory of Planned Behavior (MTPB) were calculated by the bootstrap technique. The results showed that adding the moral norm component to the theory is important for promoting participatory behaviors of water conservation. According to the boxplot graphs and model path coefficients, most respondents had a high moral commitment to participate in water conservation, which shows that they consider themselves responsible for local water resources. Also, the level of social acceptance of the respondents to the policy option of participatory exploitation of water resources was above the middle level and uncertainty band of social acceptance for the research components indicated the intra-level coordination towards the adoption of the policy option of participatory exploitation of water. The results of the structural model showed that the MTPB variables, respectively, explain 70.1%, 75.9%, 81% and 79.2% of the variance of the participatory behaviors of water conservation of stakeholders of Toshan drinking, Galand drinking, Toshan agriculture and Galand agriculture.

Beside natural factors, spatial expansions of new cities is one of the main causes of the water crisis. Parand new city, in that regard, has very high restrictions on the potable water supply. Nonetheless, there is an increasing population growth and construction in this city. In this regard, type of residential development of the city has a significant impact on managing the potable water consumption, sufficient for its sustainable development. The current methods of calculating future potable water for cities are more based on population growth scenarios and focus on analyzing population growth rates regardless of the population's physical development capacity. Using the prediction of physical expansion applying LCM simulation (Land Change Modeler), the present study first simulated the physical development of Parand city up to 2032 based on a typical pattern in urban development centered on villas and estimated the amount of potable water required by Parand city according to this model. Accordingly, the initial scenario, called scattering, predicts water requirements by relying on spatial expansion and considering natural population growth by 2032; The second scenario, which is the most common type of urban decision-making and planning, is the scenario of a long-term trend of population growth up to the horizon of 2032. The results indicated a significant difference between the potable water consumption in Parand city based on the first and second approach as the water needs of about forty-three million cubic meters and about thirty-three million cubic meters in 2032, respectively. The result reveals to the planners a style of urban needs assessment and forecasting, considering the natural population growth and the city's spatial expansion. Thus, to prevent the water crisis and move towards sustainable urban development, the present article strongly recommends spatial planning for cities' development due to limited water resources.

Climate change in the past decade had serious impacts on food security and livelihoods in different parts of the world. EOF is one of the important methods for studying rainfall patterns in an area. The main objectives of the paper were to determine the best weight coefficients and frequency functions, determine homogeneous regions, model seasonal time series, and find the Severity-Area- Frequency (SAF), Duration-Area-Frequency (DAF), and Meteorological Drought Curves in three basins of Karun, Dez and Karkheh. In order to achieve the above objectives, 69 (Ministry of Energy’s) weather stations were selected in the research basins. After qualitative control, test and reconstruction of data, frequency functions and four weight factors (EOF) were obtained. Then, with the homogenization of the rainfall zone, the 291 cells in the ArcGIS9.3 environments were examined by ordinary kriging interpolation method. The results of the interpolation for first to forth weight functions (EOF) showed that the spherical semi covariogram with second degree of polonomial trend and unisotropy, the Gaussian no-trend with isotropy, the Gaussian with second degree of trend, and the spherical with second degree of trend and no-isotropy have the best distribution respectively. The homogenization of the region showed that the minimum average monthly precipitation in southern parts of Khuzestan Province and some eastern parts of Charmahal-o-Bakhtiari Province was 14.5-24.3 mm and maximum average monthly precipitation in northern parts of Khuzestan Province and south of Lorestan Province was 65.3-80.4 mm. Using the ARMA Stochastic Modeling Method with the SAMS program for each cell for 4 time series of frequency functions (PC), 12.000 rainfall data were obtained and then analysis of droughts was conducted. The results showed that the Gamma and Log-Normal statistical distribution for the return periods of 5, 10, 50, 100 and 200 years were the best fit for the series of relative shortages and drought persistence, respectively.

In recent years drought and the continuous extraction of water by digging deep wells have led to a drop in groundwater levels. Therefore, in order to manage groundwater consumption for sustainable use of water resources and also to maintain the environmental balance of this important resource, appropriate research and policies are needed. In the present study, in order to make optimal use of groundwater in Qareh Toghan region of Neka, the stochastic multi-criteria decision analysis approach has been used under rainfall uncertainty condition. The required data were collected as a library and GAMS software was used to estimate the results. Based on the results, by increasing the probability of rainfall up to 99%, an increase in gross margin in the region would happen so that in scenarios of 95% and 99% probability of rainfall, the gross margin was increased by about 1.44 and 4.13%, respectively, compared to the condition of 90% rainfall probability. Under these conditions, the amount of groundwater abstraction in various scenarios remained unchanged but the share of groundwater in the total water consumption decreased. In contrast, in the case of reducing the probability of rainfall to 99% compared to the probability of 90%, the gross margin of the proposed cropping pattern decreased by about 33.3%. In this condition, the amount of groundwater abstraction decreased by about 32.8% due to low groundwater level in the region and its unsuitability in terms of salinity. However, the share of groundwater consumption in relation to the existing conditions and in all the mentioned scenarios remained constant. Therefore, due to the high share of groundwater in agriculture in the region, as well as increasing farmers' losses and the possibility of declining groundwater levels in low rainfall years, it is suggested to provide suitable plans for using surface water in the study area for optimal management, and improving the environmental conditions of groundwater in the region while supporting the income status of farmers.

Precipitation is a major component of the hydrological cycle which has significant changes over space and time. Missing data in precipitation measurements and improper distribution of precipitation measurement sites cause major problems in hydrological studies. Satellite data is a new alternative for estimating precipitation data and the present study aimed at evaluating the performance of P-CDR (Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks- Climate Data Record) and CHIRPS (Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Station Data) with spatial separation of 0.25 × 0.25 and on a daily, monthly and yearly scale for the period of 1990 to 2019 in 88 synoptic stations located in Iran. As a result of annual precipitation estimation analysis and according to performance evaluation indices, P-CDR had better performance than CHIRPS in all regions except for the north and northwest of Iran. Precipitation estimation by P-CDR dataset in all basins except Urmia and Sarakhs had less error in estimating monthly precipitation compared to CHIRPS, and it had the highest correlation with observed data. CHIRPS daily rainfall estimation had better performance than P-CDR, especially in the Persian Gulf and Oman Sea basins. As CSI (critical success index) showed, CHIRPS had a better performance in detecting rainy and non-rainy days in almost all stations. According to the results of altitude-rainfall analysis, both datasets in the highlands of the Zagros mountain chain and north of the Alborz mountain chain performed weak in estimating precipitation.

Sanandaj-Sirjan zone is the most dynamic tectonic zone in Iran. The research method of the present study was survey-laboratory. The hydrogeochemical and isotopic properties of Malusan and Barudab springs (Nahavand) and their closest schist springs (Abolfazl and Siadreh) are investigated. To evaluate the water quality of springs, physical properties (electrical conductivity, temperature, TDS, and pH), turbidity, anion concentrations (Nitrate, nitrite, chloride, fluoride, and sulfate), carbonate and bicarbonate, main cations (sodium, potassium, calcium, and manganese), total concentration of 11 poisonous/heavy elements (ferric, arsenic, cadmium, cobalt, copper, zinc, lead, nickel, manganese, mercury and barium) and finally the stable isotopes δ18O and δ2H were analyzed. Discharge was measured with a volumetric and flowmetric method at the site. Based on alpha coefficient and field observations the karst of Barudab region is moderate karst and the karst of Melusan region is located between moderate karst and incomplete karst (Merv karst). Also, karst reservoir of Malusan has trinary porosity system due to the existence of cavity porosity and fractures along with primary porosity in synchronic, but karst reservoir of Barudab spring has only primary porosity. Stable oxygen isotopes 18 and deuterium of Baroudab spring have concentrations higher than Melousan spring due to high feeding height. Catchment area of ​​the springs is not the same as the surface boundary due to different slopes and drainage is done by stratifications and faults. so origin of karst springs is to some extent influenced by secondary and inter-structural processes, with autogenic recharge. Based on the findings, Malusan and Barudab springs are representatives of the oldest karst reservoirs in Sanandaj-Sirjan zone in Iran.

By growing food and energy demands and rising living standards and according to the complexity of regional water governance, the pressure on water resources is increasing. Many factors are involved in water security. In this research, firstly, the water security of Lake Urmia Basin was investigated using hydro-economic classification for 1) five-year periods from 1991 to 2016, and 2) the provinces located in the basin for 2016. The results showed the existence of high hydrological challenges and low economic capacity to achieve water security. Since general methods such as hydro-economic classification do not provide accurate information at local scales, in the second part, a clear definition of water security was presented according to the characteristics of Lake Urmia Basin. Considering this definition, we designed an indicator-based framework in three dimensions of access to water, income, and employment to assess the water security of the basin. The study was conducted for the historical period. By the considered criteria, the water security of the basin was assessed as "low" in 1996 and 2016 and "moderate" in 2001, 2006 and 2011. The study of the basin water security with productivity indicators of economic activities showed that in order to achieve water security in the future, the agricultural sector does not possess the necessary potential for socio-economic development and policies in this sector should be oriented towards reduction of water consumption and employment. This is not possible without investing and creating employment capacity in other sectors, which have high potential for increasing employment opportunities and per capita income.

Nowadays, population growth and increasing the level of social welfare have led to increased and unpredictable demand for water resources that may disrupt the water resources availability. Therefore, conjunctive use based on the scenario planning method can increase the reliability of the water resources utilization in the presence of uncertainties. In this study, the outputs of three atmospheric-ocean general circulation models have been used to assess climate change effects on the Dasht-Afzar of Fars province. In this regard, the LARS-WG model has been applied to downscaling climate models under RCP4.5 scenario. Then to select the best scenario for groundwater resources reclamation, the WEAP model has been used to simulate possible and probable integrated management scenarios for the next 5 years. These scenarios were; 1) Continuation of the current condition, 2) Development of irrigation network, 3) Construction of artificial nutrition ponds, 4) Water transfer from Salman Farsi dam to neighboring cities, 5) Consumption management, 6) Construction of Kavar dam upstream Salman Farsi dam, and 7) Simultaneous implementation of scenarios 2 to 4 in the consumption management scenario conditions. Performance criteria as well as fuzzy sustainability index were employed to evaluate each scenario's outputs. The results indicated that climate change could not be considered as the main factor in the downward trend of groundwater level. Also, the only scenario that can stop that trend is a 35% reduction in agricultural consumption. In the consumption management scenario, the construction of the Kavar dam will be allowed to store a maximum of 30% of the average flow rate to the Salman dam. Because otherwise, the resource management problems and costs related to the Salman Farsi dam will be increased.

Investigation and control of bioaccumulation of heavy metals is very important due to pollution load, ecological risk and very high consequences to human health as well as the uncertainty of the type, amount and manner of pollutants entering water sources. In this regard, determining the level of pollution of heavy metals, nitrate and phosphate in the Latian and Lar dam reservoirs, as well as the potential of Lemna minor, Typha Latifolica and Nasturtium microphyll in phytoremediation of heavy metals and nutrients of these sources were considered in this study. For this purpose, 40 water samples were collected from different depths of Latian and Lar dam lakes as well as 3 samples from the leaves of plant species at random intervals in summer and autumn. After preparing and processing the samples in the laboratory, the average residual concentration of elements was read by ICP. Results showed the mean concentrations of copper, lead, iron and nitrate in Latian dam lake as 0.009, 0.27, 0.10 and 0.07 mg/l, respectively. In Lar dam lake the concentrations were respectively 0.004, 0.26, 0.06 and 1.27 mg/l. In all cases except lead, the values were less than the standard allowable limits. Also, the average phosphate concentrations in Latian and Lar dam reservoirs were 0.07 and 1.27 mg/l, respectively, which was over the standard allowable limit in Lar dam reservoir. Also, in Latian dam, Lemna minor plant has high efficiency in removing lead and phosphate elements, Typha Latifolica has high efficiency in removing iron, and leek juice has high efficiency in removing copper and nitrate. In Lar dam, Typha Latifolica was more efficient in removing iron, copper, lead and nitrate, and leek juice in removing Phosphate. The low average concentration of heavy elements in the reservoir of Lar Dam compared to Latian Dam is related to the considerable area of ​​good pastures and heavy rainfall in the Lar catchment; i.e. the type of land use, vegetation pattern and air humidity in Jajroud and Lar Dam catchments affect this issue.

A District Metered Area (DMA) is a specified area in which inlet and outlet water at any time is measured. The procedure of forming District Metered Areas is generally comprised of two phases: The clustering phase for automatic detection of the best communities and the physical partitioning phase to optimize the location of gate valves and flowmeters according to the objective function. In this study, the network of Taft city in Yazd province was modeled in Epanet software and by linking EPANET and MATLAB and loading the network configurations, the network was automatically clustered using community structure. In the physical partitioning phase, using the genetic algorithm, the optimal locations of the gate valves and flowmeters was determined by considering the objective function of reduction of standard deviation of DMAs average pressure. The results showed that the community structure algorithm with average daily pressure weight can automatically create appropriate clustering according to the modularity index and uniform pressure in clusters. The optimization of boundary pipes resulted in the reduction of the pressure in different parts of the network, such as areas with pressure higher than the average pressure of the network, and due to the reduced standard deviation of DMAs average pressure caused equitable distribution of network pressure.

The study of impacts of human activities on the environment and the development of socio-economic systems compliant with a sustainable environment has became the center of attention in recent years due to the severe environmental destruction worldwide. Various methods have been developed to evaluate the effects of these activities on the environment and to simulate the coupling human-natural system. One of these methods is "Carrying capacity of water resources", which has been developed in the science of water resources management based on the concept of "Carrying capacity". This research applied this concept to evaluate water resources management and proposed a new framework for assessing the carrying capacity of water resources by developing previous methods, and by combining simulation, indicator-based evaluation and pressure-support factor. The research used a new approach for the carrying capacity evaluation which eliminated some challenges such as ignoring the environmental health status as well as the possibility of interchangeability between indicators. The proposed framework and approach were used for the water resources carrying capacity evaluation in the Zarrineh-roud River basin area, Iran, in the period of 1987 to 2015. The study period (1987-2015) was divided into three smaller periods; first (1987-1999), second (2000-2006) and third (2007-2015), to have proper annual and periodic analyses based on changes in evaluation indicators. The results showed that loading on water resources is in the range of water resources carrying capacity only in the first period and water resources are overloaded in the second and third periods. According to the evaluation standards, the carrying capacity of water resources and the environment health status had decreased one level in each period compared to the previous period, and eventually reached the lowest possible level in the third period. The analysis of pressure-support in water resources indicated that the pressure on water resources has increased and the ability to support water resources has decreased in each period compared to the previous period. These outcomes indicated that implemented policies in the basin have pursue rapid economic developments and have paid no attention to the ability to support water resources. Such policies did not improve the basin condition and made it much worse. Therefore, it is necessary to review the implemented policies and adopt the necessary policies as soon as possible to improve the carrying capacity of water resources. Since the results have well conformity with the realities of the basin and express the effectiveness of the implemented policies, the proposed framework can be used to review the implemented policies in other similar cases. In addition, the framework makes it possible to evaluate scenarios and predict future conditions. Also, it can evaluate the impact of different policies on basin’s water resources, society, economy and the environment and be a confident base for future research.

Floods are one of the most devastating types of natural disasters that every year causes the loss of human lives and properties around the world. The purpose of this study is to evaluate and compare the capability of three machine learning models namely Naïve Bayes Tree (NBTree), Alternating Decision Tree (ADTree), and Random Forest (RF) to predict flood risk in Maneh and Samalqan county. The novelty of the present study is the presentation of tree-based hybrid models that have been less used in previous research. To prepare a flood reference map in the study area, 300 flood-prone locations were identified and were divided into training and validation data sets through random selection with a ratio of 70 to 30. The spatial database of the flood was created using 15 hydrogeological and environmental criteria affecting the flood. Finally, three flood risk prediction maps were generated using NBTree, ADTree, and RF models. To validate the flood risk predicting models, the Area Under the Curve (AUC) factor and the statistical criteria of Positive predictive rate, negative predictive rate, sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy were used. The results showed that the RF model had higher accuracy than the NBTree and ADTree models in predicting flood risk in the study area. The results also showed that the risk of flooding in the central areas of the study area is higher than other areas due to lower altitude and slope.

Albedo is one of the important factors affecting the energy balance of lakes. This study investigates the spatiotemporal variation of shortwave albedo over the entire boundary of Lake Urmia. For this purpose, first, the boundaries of the lake water body, salt flats, and bare lands have been extracted. Secondly, monthly time series of shortwave albedo have been analyzed using the MODIS albedo product (MCD43A3). The validation results showed that MODIS data underestimates the lake surface albedo. Moreover, along with the significant lake level drop from 2008 to 2017 (compared to the previous decade), the surface albedo of Lake Urmia has extremely increased (up to 150%). This, in turn, can lead to a decrease in surface temperature, evaporation, and thermal storage capacity of the lake and impair its function in regulating the micro-climate of its surrounding region. Despite an increase in the bare land and salt flat areas, albedo of these surfaces have remained pretty constant and no trend has been observed during the study period. Results of this study indicated the inefficiency of the MODIS albedo data (MCD43A3 v.6) in monitoring Lake Urmia albedo. Findings can also provide insights into the performance improvement of the next version of MODIS albedo products, particularly over saline lakes.

Assessing the resilience of the urban water distribution system against natural disasters and unforeseen events is very important in urban management. In this paper, the amount of hydraulic resilience of Sadra water network against earthquake has been studied. Various strategies have also been defined for repairing the water distribution network. In this paper, Sadra city water network is first simulated in EPANET and then imported as input into WNTR (Water Network Tool for Resilience) code, which is programmed in Python. WNTR is developed based on the theory of complex networks and calculates the index of citizens' access to water services. In this paper, 18 scenarios were examined considering changes in earthquake intensity, earthquake center and two repair strategies with a decrease in the amount of consumer demand. Pipes are divided into two categories, general and minor damage, based on the probability of failure. Todini index is used to evaluate the failure criteria in the water distribution network. Results showed that while the increase in earthquake intensity in all areas is positively correlated with the paternal damage of the water supply network, the return time of the network to normal conditions depends on the repair strategy and change in the expected consumer demand. Meanwhile, the fractal analysis of the water supply network has been performed in order to analyze the redundancy of the network based on the fractal dimension in order to find the most vulnerable area of ​​the network. Assessing the hydraulic resilience indices and fractal analysis depicted that the North is the most vulnerable area and South has the highest network resilience. Finally, the return time of the system to normal condition in each scenario and the number, ID and location of damaged pipes in each scenario was determined.

High concentrations of carbon dioxide are present in the Gariz aquifer groundwater and this phenomenon has led to many environmental hazards. In order to determin the origin of dissolved carbon dioxide in Gariz aquifer, the groundwater has been sampled from wells (35 samples) in July and October 2019. Laboratory analysis included the concentrations of major ions and stable carbon isotope (δ13CTDIC) in groundwater samples. Also some physicochemical properties of water have been measured directly in the field. On the basis of chemistry of the ions, the majority of the water samples have a chloride-sulphate alkaline-earth to bicarbonate-alkaline-earth composition and bicarbonate concentrations of groundwater samples have increased due to the presence of carbonate minerals in the aquifer as well as the significant interaction of the aquifer with carbon dioxide-rich fluids. Hydrogeochemical evolution of the aquifer groundwaters has also significantly affected by the infiltration of saline water and mixing with CO2-rich fluids. Hence, for investigating the origin of carbon dioxide dissolved in the aquifer the theoretical δ13 values have been calculated in equilibrium with collected groundwater samples at respective sampling temperatures on the basis of the carbon isotopic balance and has been evaluated using the dissolved gases mixing model. The results highlighted two main CO2 components: 1) an inorganic deep sourced CO2 (13C-enriched) and 2) an organic CO2 (13C-depleted). Calculated pristine isotopic composition of C (-2‰ V-PDB) that interacted with the aquifer indicated the significant contribution from a deep source of carbon dioxide inorganic in origin and decarbonation in calc-silicate rocks.

High accuracy forecasting of monthly precipitation is one of the major challenges in hydrology and meteorology and is of great importance in water resources planning. In the current research a Class-Based Probabilistic Hybrid Model (CPHM) has been developed on the basis of a hybrid of classification methods and probabilistic kernel functions. Using this method, monthly precipitation (model output) can be forecasted more accurately for all months of a season according to seasonal precipitation (model input). The superiorities of this model over conventional monthly rainfall forecasting methods are on the one hand, its capability for monthly precipitation forecasting for a season such as autumn in Iran the previous months of which in summer have no precipitation, and on the other hand, the simultaneous prediction of precipitation for all months of a season which is valuable in terms of water resources management. In order to evaluate this model, it was applied to forecast autumnal monthly precipitation for Karkheh basin which includes Khuzestan fertile plain and its efficiency was compared to an optimized structural ANN model. Results revealed a high performance for the developed CPHM model while it was also superior to ANN model for its precipitation forecasts for all three months of autumn. The average accuracy of the model resulted from validation phase for three autumn months based on Nash-Sutcliff (NSE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC) indices were 0.7, 12, and 0.86, respectively.

Evapotranspiration is one of the most important part of hydrologic cycle that sinks the watershed moisture as an outward flux from the existing water resource. Most of the current relationships equation for estimating actual evapotranspiration are empirical, which are based on local condition that their calibration or selection must be based on status of region of interest. The main goal of the current research is the evaluation of the effect of using global gridded evapotranspiration products on the performance of water balance model in Snow-covered region in a mountainous watershed located in western Iran; Gheshlagh watershed. To do this, three global gridded products including GLEAM, SSEbop and MODIS organized in four calibration scenarios (three scenarios using these products and reference model) are evaluated. Finally, due to the need for evaluating the interaction of using these data on structure of water balance models, the uncertainty of the model parameters has been evaluated by GLUE method. Simultaneous calibration results of evapotranspiration and runoff showed that model operation is better once using GLEAM and SSEbop products. In all scenarios, GLEAM had best function that improved runoff simulation.

Supply-oriented water management alone cannot support the future water security of cities. Therefore, the demand management strategy based on understanding the household water consumption patterns and changing the behavior of water users has emphasized. The purpose of this paper is to highlight the importance of domestic water demand management research and review and critique the results of the article published in Iran- Water Resources Research Journal entitled "Comparison of psychological factors affecting the residential water curtailment behaviors and water-efficiency behaviors; case study of Tehran, Iran." In this paper, the effectiveness of using the theory of planned behavior (TPB) model in explaining water consumption behavior is questioned, and the reason for achieving such results is dug deeper. Concisely, the behavior variable in the studies of domestic water demand management should be measured on actual water consumption via volumetric metering, and use of self-reported consumption pattern can lead to invalid results. The TPB model is more reliable in determining the adoption of water efficiency behaviors like installing water-saving devices. Besides, understanding the impact-likelihood of potential water conservation behaviors, designing specific action plans to adopt more effective conservation behaviors are of paramount importance.