فصلنامه پژوهش ها و سیاست های اقتصادی
پیاپی 98 (تابستان 1400)

The purpose of this paper is Investigating the Impact of Value Added Tax (VAT) on Iran's Current Account. To do this, Computable General Equilibrium Model (CGE) is used. Data is based on the latest social accounting matrix (SAM) of Iran in 2011, which is provided by Islamic Parliament Research Centre of Iran in 2015. Policy analysis has been carried out in the form of nine scenarios: the VAT with the rates applied in Iranduring the years 2008 to 2019 (3%, 4%, 5%, 6%, 8% and 9%) and the applicable rates (10%, 15% and 20%). In all scenarios, the VAT rate in agriculture sector is considered zero. The results indicate that VAT has positive impact on Iran's export and import, but negative impact on current account. Likewise result of sensitivity analysis show the high precision of the research model and confidence of policy analysis’ results.

A critique towards real business cycles (RBC) modelling is their arbirtray primary asumtions and non-testability. In response, the robustness of simulation should be tested with respect to changing the assumptions, or in other words, their compatibility should be tested with regards to real data moments. In this study, we calibrate a general equilibrium model with two sources of uncertainties, productivity and oil income, for the time period of 1988-2012 (before international sanctions) and simulate it using Dynare (MatLab). Propagation mechanisms include the auto regressive structure of uncertainties plus the investment. As first practice, simulated moments of the model is compared with the real ones in Iran. In another practice, the oil is excluded, and results are compared with the non-oil sector of Iran. Besides, we check for the best filter among two selective varieties of high-frequency filters and middle-pass filters. Among filsteres, the high-frequency ones are a better separatore of cycles vs. trend for Iran; noting that the high-frequency ones obtain more noicy cycles. In modeling the non-oil sector of Iran's economy, even though the non-oil time series of the national account are employed, excluding oil from modeling makes it less reliable, probably because the volatilities originated from oil is propagated into all sectores of the economy including non-oil sectors. In sum, our findings show that first, a high frequency filter with more noisy cycles is more appropriate; and second, macro modeling must necessarily includes the oil secotre.

Explaining economic stylized facts with general equilibrium models requires considering some assumptions about relationships that are as realistic as possible. Assumptions about nominal rigidities such as wage and price stickiness are the main principles of general equilibrium models that should be determined based on the agent's behavior in the studied case. This paper addresses the question of whether introducing the wage stickiness into the Iranian economic model can improve the model fitting. Also this paper is aimed to find out which price and wage adjustment models are more consistent with the stylized facts of the Iranian economy. In this order, we consider three alternatives for wage stickiness (model without wage stickiness, simple wage stickiness, and wage stickiness with indexation) and three models for price stickiness (Calvo with Indexation, Information Stickiness Model and Dual Price-Information Stickiness), and design 9 DSGE models based on these alternatives. Then we evaluate and compare DSGE models with three different benchmarks (Baysian Model Comparision, Impuls Response Function Comparision, and comparing the degree of inflation persistency). The results show that introducing wage stickiness in the models make the models more consistent with the stylized facts of the Iranian economy, including the inflation stability and inflation inertia. Also, considering the wage indexation in the models improves model performance based on the inflation persistency benchmark

Migration is a complex and multi-dimensional phenomenon that always has been of interest to many researchers in various sciences. In this study, the migration issue from an economic standpoint has been studied. The main purpose of the present study is to investigate the relationship between unemployment and net migration. To this aim, using the data of all cities in Iran during the period of 2007-2017, the relationship between the two aforementioned variables has been examined via a spatial causality approach, and afterwards the migration model has been estimated through the spatial econometric method. The obtained results confirm the existence of causality between net migration and unemployment so that the direction of this causality is from unemployment to net migration. Moreover, the derived results from the estimation of migration model using spatially lagged explanatory variables model (SLX), specify that unemployment rate, industrial employment share, GDP per capita, the young population share of total population, and education play the most crucial role in the net migration model, also these variables have significant direct and spillover effects on net migration. It is noteworthy that unemployment, as the key variable of this study, has a negative direct effect and a positive spatial spillover effect on net migration. In other words, however rising unemployment in a city can decrease the net migration in that city, the net migration in the nearby cities will be increased.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the unemployment volatility puzzle (Shimer puzzle) for the Iranian economy. For this purpose first, the behavior of the main variables of the labor market such as unemployment, vacancies, productivity, and the ratio of vacancies to unemployment (labor market tightness) using quarterly data from 2001-2018 investigated and then the ability of search and a matching model (DMP) to show fluctuations business cycles in the labor market were assessed through calibration on the Dynare. The results show that the search and matching model is successful in predicting the cyclical pattern of labor market variables, although it cannot explain the fluctuations observed in unemployment and vacancies in response to labor productivity shocks, and the calibrated model is able to explain less than 1/4 the observed fluctuations in the ratio of vacancies to unemployment. This study is the first quantitative work in this field for the Iranian economy that can be the basis for future research, including by recognizing the characteristics that are specific to the Iranian labor market can provide a solution appropriate to these characteristics for the Shimer puzzle. As long as the search and matching model is used to design and evaluate labor market policies, it is necessary to take into account the characteristics of business cycles of labor market variables, so it is suggested that more studies be conducted to identify the characteristics of Iranchr('39')s labor market that bring the search and matching model closer to the data.

Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) also known as Chronic diseases are regarded as one of the main causes of mortality and exorbitant costs of household in Iran and the world. Few research studies have been conducted on the economic effects of these diseases on individuals and households in Iran. The main objective of this paper is to show the effects of these diseases on health expenditure, non-health consumption, labor income, as well as household transferred income in rural and urban households, which provide some coverage for high expenditures of chronic diseases. As the household income and expenditure data used in this study are censored and discontinuous the two-part Heckman and Tobit model (Heckit) was used for estimation. The obtained results show that the chronic diseases in urban households have a significant relationship with non-health consumption, and they directly affect the household welfare level and do not have any significant effect on other sectors. The results of rural data show that the expenditures of chronic diseases affects the level of health expenditure, non-health consumption, and labor income. Additionally, chronic diseases have a significant effect on transferred income neither in urban households nor in rural ones. The obtained results show that rural households are more affected by the chronic diseases expenditures than urban households and are more vulnerable to it. On the other hand, household income is a determinant variable in health expenditure both in urban and rural households. The results of this study have wide applicability for policymakers in financing programs for treating these diseases, as well as preventing them.

This study deals with the philosophical-economic analysis of the factors of taxpayers' non-compliance. Despite the wide variety of theories about the factors affecting tax compliance, tax ethics, and tax evasion, individuals' perceptions of whether or not tax compliance is moral can be examined philosophically and economically. Some researchers do not consider tax evasion to be ethical under any circumstances, while some scholars in the fields of economics and philosophy do not consider tax evasion under certain conditions immoral. This study first uses the library method to analyze the existing factors and arguments for non-compliance of taxpayers, then, using the elite questionnaires, we examine and rank the impact of each of these factors on taxpayer's non-compliance. The results show that the two factors of "government corruption or demonic thinking of the people about the government" and "government service" are known as the most effective arguments and factors of non-compliance.

In Iran, due to tax evasion, the government is not able to fully realize its potential tax revenue and usually face budget deficit. On the other hand, the central bank does not have enough independence. In this study, first, the monetary rule was calculated by optimizing the central bank's loss function by considering fiscal dominance and tax evasion. The derived rule responds to government deb in addition to inflation and GDP. Parameters have been calculated in the framework of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model using Bayesian method based on data 2002-2017. We find that despite the fiscal dominance and liquidity constraints, tax evasion can act as a buffer layer for economic agents against economic shocks like government expenditure, oil revenue and technology but tax evasion is lead to greater volatility of economic variables. As a result, social welfare is decreased stronger while under fiscal dominance and absence of tax evasion, optimal monetary rule is impossible.

One of the most important macroeconomic goals of countries is to create the necessary conditions to promote continuous and stable economic growth, which economic complexity can be considered as one of the most important sectors to achieve this goal. Productivity is one of the main variables affecting economic complexity; therefore, strengthening it can increase economic complexity. To enhance productivity, efficiency components can be examined, the most important of which are increasing the quality of training, in-service training, effective use of talents, providing financial resources for the production of diverse and less inclusive goods, access to financial services, the availability of the latest technologies, the absorption of technology by companies, foreign direct investment and technology transfer. Strengthening these components leads to the acquisition of superior knowledge and technology and promotes economic complexity. Therefore, this study with emphasizing on efficiency; examines the impact of the components of strengthening productivity on the economic complexity of selected countries at the efficiency-driven stage and on the verge of entering the innovation phase during the 2006-2016 to use of method the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) will pay. The results show that exchange rate variable, strengthening productivity and its components, basic requirements and innovation has a positive impact on economic complexity.

The abundance of natural resources influences economic growth from different channels, with human capital being one of the most influential channels of natural resource abundance on economic growth. In this research, using a model of vector auto-regression model with time-varying parameters (TVP-VAR) and data from years 1367 to 1395, oil rents, education, GDP per capita and life expectancy index, the effect of model variables On the health dimension of human capital in the Iranian economy has been studied. The results show the negative effects of oil rent on the health dimension of human capital in Iran's economy. In addition, the effect of GDP per capita on the life expectancy index is positive throughout the whole period of study, however, depending on the share of health expenditures on GDP, we have witnessed a small increase in the positive effects of this period. In addition, the results show the relatively symmetrical and positive effects of the life expectancy index on itself over the years. According to the results, the education has a negative effect on the life expectancy index, an issue that conflicts with theoretical expectations and shows structural weaknesses in the country's education system.

The main purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of oil rents and corruption on central bank independence in oil exporting countries. The panel data method is used for 25 oil dependent countries over the period of 2000-2012. The results show that oil rents and corruption reduce the central bank independence in oil exporting countries. In addition, in order to make a comparison between the role of oil rents and other rents in affecting the central bank independence, the present study examines the effects of other rents arising from other sources such as gas rent, the forest rents and the total rents of natural resources on the central bank independence. The results show that gas and forestry rents do not have a significant effect on central bank independence in oil exporting countries, but the effect of total natural resource rents, including oil rents, on central bank independence is negative and statistically significant. Moreover, according to the other control variables employed in our empirical models, we find that GDP per capita, government expenditures and liquidity have negative and statistically significant impact on central bank independence in oil exporting countries. While, the improvement in the transparency index and public information may reduce the central bank independence in these countries. The results of this study indicate that the oil exporting countries can protect their central bank independence by managing their oil rents and controlling the liquidity and government spending behavior. This may happen through improving the transparency index and public awareness.

The purpose of this article is considering the macroeconomic variables affecting on financial burden of Iranian pension funds, which these variables are unemployment rate, inflation rate, stock exchange return rate, economic growth rate and real exchange rate. For this purpose, quarterly data for the period 1384 to 1398 and non-linear transfer regression model(STR) have been used. The results of model estimation showed that the variables of economic growth, stock exchange return and real exchange rate have negative effects on the financial burden of pension funds for government budget in both low and high regimes (inflation ≤15%) and (inflation ≥15%). Also, in a low-inflation regime, rising inflation had more short-term inflationary effects on the financial burden of pension funds .In addition, the sum of the coefficients of the unemployment rate and its intermittent values were positive in the first regime and negative in the second regime, so that, in the first regime an increase in the unemployment rate had severe short-term inflationary effects on The financial burden has been on pension funds for the government budget. Based on the obtained results, reforming the country's pension regulations and paying attention to actuarial calculations, reviewing restrictive laws in the field of pension fund investment, settlement of claims of them by the government and also the existence of a regulatory body for these funds were presented.