پژوهشنامه اقتصاد کلان
سال شانزدهم شماره 31 (بهار و تابستان 1400)

Tax, as one of the most important financing Sources of government, play an important role in economic growth and income distribution and depending on their level of development and economic structure. Given the role of taxes in the economy, the phenomenon of tax evasion, which is derived from the lack of professional ethics, as a counter-value can be a serious threat to tax culture and, consequently, the realization of social welfare, and for this reason, the need to identify the causes and intensification of tax evasion due to neglect of ethical aspects and provide solutions in this regard is worth discussing. Investigating the phenomenon of tax evasion and identifying important factors in its formation helps to provide the most appropriate strategies and infrastructure to prevent and reduce it. Tax evasion has not only economic roots, but also the role of social and institutional factors in its formation.Therefore, the main purpose of this study is to investigate the factors affecting tax evasion by considering the moderating role of tax knowledge. The statistical population of this study was taxpayers of various tax occupations during 2019 and the first half of 2020. Eight cases affecting tax evasion were examined according to Fisher (1992) Modified 4-factor questionnaire. Based on a questionnaire distributed among taxpayers, results show that the variables of non-compliance (Tax rate and income level) and tax system (Probability of discovery, tax offenses, complexity of the tax system and comprehensible government roles) have a positive and significant relationship with the tax evasion variable, While the influence and attitude of peers has not been an effective factor in tax evasion. Also, tax knowledge, as a moderating variable, affects the relationship between significant factors and tax evasion.

Forecasting is an essential and growing component of financial theories and applications. Forecasts are expressed in three ways: point, interval, and probability distribution. The largest amount of information a forecast can provide is in the form of a probability distribution. For example, in addition to the mean and conditional variance of other torques including kurtosis and skewness, the probability distribution can also be calculated. This form of forecasting is very important in the financial economy, which is a fundamental risk assessment and uncertainty. Because the sum of all possible events is estimated and the future events may not be missed. Therefore, estimating uncertainty in this case is much more accurate than other forms of forecasting. In the present study, based on the Geometric Brownian Model (GBM), the probability of future stock price index values of Tehran Stock Exchange is calculated. Bayesian parametric approach and MCMC sampling algorithm are used for this purpose. The results show the growth rate of the stock price index at an average rate of 4% in the year 1398 (forecast year) and the probability of limiting events such as the index falling to below the 1397 average is very low (about 7%). The results also show that the probability of falling stock price index in the forecast year is lower than the minimum of the previous year is only 0.0017. Therefore, investing in the stock market is very safe. This information is only available in the manner of predicting the probability of future stock price indexes.

The present research aims to present a model of sustainable tax development functions under the information environment risk conditions of Tehran Stock Exchange companies. In this research, using a mix of qualitative and quantitative approaches, Initially 13 tax professionals working at the university level participated in the meta-analysis and the Delphi section to validate the research components and indicators. Delphi analysis was used to identify the theoretical adequacy of the components and indicators. In the quantitative section, 28 executives from the stock exchange companies were selected randomly through available sampling method. They were given matrix questionnaires to stratify the identified indicators in a range from the most to the least influential ones. The results of the qualitative analysis indicated the existence of 2 main components in the form of 15 final indicators based on theoretical adequacy. Moreover, through the quantitative analysis, it was found that the indicators of the greater dynamics of the value of the company based on tax transparency (C1) as an indicator of the external information environment functions, as well as the increased level of disclosure of economic performance in line with the GRI standard (C9) and the strategic balance between tax minimization and corporate value (C10) as the indicators of the internal information environment functions had the most significant effects on the sustainable tax development of Tehran Stock Exchange companies under the information environment risk conditions. These results show that the development of sustainable tax development functions under the information environment risk conditions can also help to improve the effectiveness of the companies’ internal operations, regardless of their positive effects on the competition and market levels.

One of the challenges for monetary policymakers is how to adopt monetary policy when inflation is persistence. Inflation stability is in fact a measure of the tendency of the inflation rate to maintain its current state and in a way indicates the stickiness in the variable. The issue of inflation stability becomes more difficult when in an economy, inflation stability changes at different times. Therefore, in this study, the intensity of inflation persistence and its dynamics in the Iranian economy were examined using monthly data for the period 1383:1 -1399:6 and using the generalized MS- ARFIMA model. The results showed that in the regime with low inflation and less fluctuations, there is stability of inflation; however, in the regime with high inflation and high fluctuations, there was no evidence of inflation. From an economic and monetary policy perspective, this result is very important. In fact, these results indicate that the monetary policymaker can reduce the level of inflation and return it to its previous values (long-term average) by inflicting a negative shock, quickly and without showing the resistance variable. But when we see moderate inflation in the country's economy, the reduction of inflation will not be easy and usually there will be a need for more efforts to reduce it. Therefore, paying attention to these results can prevent the inconsistency of time in the adoption of monetary policy. It can also be a warning to policymakers to refrain from adopting policies that have limited positive effects in the short term but negative effects in the long run.

In this study, the hypothesis of per capita income convergence between the provinces of the Islamic Republic of Iran during the period 2000-2018 has been tested. The convergence hypothesis has been tested in several Persian articles, even at the provincial level. But the present study differs from previous studies in two ways. First, the use of real GDP per capita without oil data as a measure of per capita income that will eliminate the bias caused by alternative variables. Second, all previous studies have used cross-sectional data estimators to estimate the beta convergence equation, the results of which will be biased. However, in this research, the dynamic spatial panel data model and the SYS-GMM estimator have been used, which will eliminate this bias. Also, two types of matrices were used to study the spatial interactions between the provinces.The results show that, the slope of the absolute beta convergence model is negative and the hypothesis of absolute convergence is not rejected and the rate of this conditional convergence between the provinces of the country is equal to 10.5%. That is, regional inequality is declining during this period. In addition, the results show that the hypothesis of per capita income convergence is not rejected and the hypothesis of spillover effects due to spatial interactions between the provinces of the country is confirmed. Both effects of neighborhood overflow and migration are statistically significant, but the effects of migration overflow have a greater effect than the effects of overflow due to neighborhoods in the provinces. Sensitivity analysis from the three perspectives of changing the spatial interaction matrix, changing the alternative variable of real per capita income and changing the estimator shows the stability of the results and the lack of seriousness of the small sample bias for the SYS-GMM estimator.

Given the importance of income inequality, which is one of the major problems of macroeconomics, especially in developing countries, and considering the direct impact of remittances on the income of recipient households, the purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of remittances on income inequality. In this regard, the panel threshold regression approach for selected developing countries in the period 2018-2000 using the bootstrap simulation method has been used to approximate the asymptotic distribution of test statistics in Stata software. Findings from estimating the non-threshold linear model showed that the relationship between remittances and income inequality is negative and statistically significant, so that increasing the amount of remittances reduces the income inequality by 0.12 units. On the other hand, estimating the threshold fixed effects model indicates the existence of a threshold of 8.43% for the inflation rate and different effects of remittances on income inequality in two different inflation regimes. Considering the threshold effect, in order to investigate the effects of remittances on income inequality, the results show that remittances before the inflation threshold (low inflation regime), remittances reduce income inequality, but after the threshold (High inflation regime) remittances had a negative effect on income inequality but were not statistically significant. Therefore, the existence of high inflation can neutralize the effect of remittances on income inequality in countries with inflation above the threshold. Also, according to the results of the present study, the economic growth variable has reduced income inequality, but the variables of government size, trade openness, population growth rate and unemployment rate have increased income inequality.

The banking industry is one of the most important and fundamental sectors of the economy and the main bedrock for the growth and dynamism of the financial system and consequently economic growth and development. One of the problems that various countries, including Iran, are facing in the current situation is the increase in         non-performing loans of banks in relation to the total loans granted in the banking system, which indicates an increase in credit risk, reduced quality of assets of this system and possible financial stabilization in the future. The ratio of non-performing loans has different effects on macroeconomic variables due to the different functions of private and public banks. On the other hand, one of the most important macroeconomic variables, economic growth means a continuous increase in the level of production of society, which reflects the level of welfare and economic power of any society. If the non-performing loans increase, the lending power of banks wil decrease while increasing the need for public and private reserves of banks to manage its risk. This will reduce the possibility of financing in the economy and the country's economic growth. In this study, using the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares Method (FMOLS), the effect of the increase of non-performing loans by public and private banks on Iran's economic growth is shown. The results of this study show that increasing the ratio of non-performing loans of public and private banks has similarly reduced Iran's economic growth. Also, private sector credit, employees with university degrees and gross fixed capital formation have a positive effect on economic growth while price index and government size have a negative effect on it.

Human capital is one of the basic requirements of economic growth from the perspective of recent theories of economic growth. However, many developing countries have not been successful in achieving sustainable economic growth and ultimately economic development despite their large investments on expanding the education system and strengthening the human capital. The purpose of this article is to answer the following research question: Under what conditions human capital can be a productive force for sustainable economic growth and ultimately economic development? For this purpose, the hypothesis of the effect of social capital level on the relationship between human capital and economic growth has been tested. The sample included 20 developed and currently developing countries, including Iran. The data has been obtained from the World Bank and the Legatum Institute for the years 2009-2018. In this study, the Threshold Dynamic Panel Model (TDPM) and the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) method have been used. The results of model estimation have shown that the impact of human capital on economic growth depends on the level of social capital, i.e., when the level of social capital is below the threshold of 50.8 of the social capital index, the human capital cannot have a positive effect on economic growth. However, issues such as graduate unemployment and brain drain phenomenon also have a negative effect on the economic growth. In contrast, when the level of social capital is high exceeding the threshold of 50.8, the impact of human capital is positive and in such societies, social capital acts as a platform for the flourishing of human capital.

Employing micro-data, quantile regression, as well as Oaxaca-Blinder and Machado-Mata decomposition models, this study investigated the causes of the existing gap in electricity consumption of the Iranian rural/urban households from 2010 to 2018. The quantile regression analysis showed that income and size of the family have a significant reverse effect on the amounts of energy expenditure. However, the building characteristics and access to high electricity-consuming appliances have a significant impact on the amounts of energy expenditure. In addition, the Oaxaca-Blinder model showed that 92% of the gap in the electricity expenditures of the urban/rural households is due to differences in socio-economic characteristics of the households. The Machado-Mata model also showed that in areas with lower electricity expenditures, inefficiency in electricity consumption is more effective compared to the difference in the socio-economic characteristics of the households. Since the households’ access to high electricity-consuming appliances has a significant effect on the gap in their electricity expenditures, the main reason for the increase of electricity consumption in Iran is the desire to achieve a higher level of welfare.

The role and importance of human capital as one of the factors and resources of accelerating economic development has been considered by economic researchers for a long time and is still a challengeable subject. Many economic policies and variables affect the accumulation and level of human capital. According to the empirical researches, trade openness and structural changes are important variables affecting the human capital. However, considering the existing literature, the type of relationship among these variables may vary under different conditions and in different countries. Thus, these relationships need to be examined more precisely. Therefore, given the importance of this issue, the current study sought to examine the relations between human capital, trade openness and structural changes in the selected OPEC countries. To achieve this goal, panel vector auto-regressive approach was used in the period 1990-2019. The findings of this study and the analysis of impulse-response functions showed that the shock of structural changes on human capital was positive in the model with the average years of schooling, while the shock of trade openness on human capital was negative. Moreover, the results of variance decomposition indicated that trade openness do not play a significant role in explaining the changes of human capital in the OPEC countries even in the long run. It seems that trade openness increases the demand of primary sectors which use low-skilled labor and therefore decreases the demand for human capital.

An overview of the policies announced by the central bank in various cases indicates that the demand for money is one of the key concepts in the analysis of the Macroeconomic. According to the criteria of macroeconomics analysis, there are important features of money demand that can mainly affect the efficiency of monetary policy. One of the most important features of money demand is stability. Monetary policy refers to the adoption of measures to control and regulate the amount of money in circulation to achieve desirable economic goals.This study examines the efficiency of monetary policy and money demand in Iran. Data have been collected annually for the years 1990-2019. Hence, first, using the Nonlinear Auto-Regression Distribution (NARDL) model, the asymmetry of money demand with respect to changes in inflation has been investigated and proven. Then, using the Vector Auto-Regression (VAR) model, the effectiveness of monetary policy efficiency despite the asymmetry of money demand with respect to the positive and negative shocks of inflation has been studied and analyzed. The results show that positive and negative changes in inflation rate will change the money demand asymmetrically. Also, the effectiveness of monetary policy efficiency in relation to the asymmetry of money demand changes along with the positive and negative inflation rate.

The effect of income on subjective well-being has been studied in several researches; however, the various dimensions of this effect have not been studied yet. Therefore, the aim of this study is to investigate the nonlinear effects of income on subjective well-being of 58 selected countries during the years 2005 to 2020 using quantile regression approach. In this study, the effects of income, unemployment, inflation, life expectancy, and income inequality on subjective well-being have also been investigated. The results show that in all quantities, there is a positive and significant relationship between income and subjective well-being. Considering different deciles of subjective well-being, however, the effect of income on subjective well-being is greater at higher levels of subjective well-being. From the middle onwards, this value is almost constant. In fact, with an unlimited increase in the subjective well-being, countries are unable to increase the amount of positive impact of income on it. According to the results, the impact of the economic factors on subjective well-being is importan, so that a high subjective well-being affects the amount of impact.