نشریه مطالعات و سیاستهای اقتصادی
سال هشتم شماره 1 (پیاپی 15، بهار و تابستان 1400)

This paper examined the dynamic relationship between exchange rate and domestic inflation rate as well as the existence of vicious circle in Iran. The sample covers monthly data from 1381:01 to 1395:12 Solar Hijri (about 2002:04 – 2017:03). The model was estimated using Markov Switching Bayesian VAR approach and Gibbs sampling.The empirical results confirm that there are two inflation regimes that vary in variances. The Impulse-Response Functions imply that there is a two-way linkage between these variables in the low inflation regime and the explosive behavior was experienced in the high inflation regime. The response of inflation to one standard-deviation shock of the exchange rate is positive and less than unity in low inflation regime. And the reaction of the exchange rate to one standard-deviation shock of inflation is positive too but the later was larger than former. Although the explosive behavior in high inflation regime confirms the vicious circle hypothesis in Iran.

The economic complexity approach is based on the concept that the products produced in the economy represent the amount of productive knowledge required for their production, and assuming that countries do not produce a product unless they have the knowledge and skills to produce it, the economic complexity of the rate The accumulation of productive knowledge hidden in the economy calculates countries. Increasing economic complexity requires the development of the necessary grounds for innovative activities. On the other hand, economic freedom through the creation of market economy relations, private sector development, foreign trade development, elimination of redundant government regulations and security of property rights can improve skills, technology transfer, encourage investment and efficient use of this capital. It provides opportunities for the development of productive activities, including innovative ones. The present study uses GMM to examine the interaction of innovation with the Economic Freedom Index on the complexity of the economy in selected countries producing science during the period 2017-2008. The study's findings suggest that the interaction of innovation with the Economic Freedom Index on economic complexity is positive and significant. In addition, research findings show that the Entrepreneurship Index, the Financial Development Index, and the Market Size Index have a positive and significant effect on economic complexity.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of bank credit on the labor market structure. The most important variables used in this study were rural to urban employment ratio, private sector employment to government employment, total employment rate, bank credit, liquidity, facility rate, inflation rate, wage rate, population growth, oil revenues, government spending. , The number of university graduates and the number of high school graduates. In order to test the relationship between the variables, the self-correlation model with distribution interrupts (ARDL) was used for the period 1396-1338. Based on the estimates, it was observed that bank credits had a positive and significant effect on the variables of the number of rural and urban employees, private and public sector employees, the employment ratio of total employment and total employment volume, and this confirmed this. Bank credit, in other words, monetary policy, has affected the structure of the labor market in Iran. In addition, it was observed that bank credits had an impact intensity of 0.69 and 0.65 on the variable employment volume, respectively, and this confirmed that bank credits, in other words, monetary policy, had an effect on employment volume.

Unemployment has been one of the major problems in Iran's economy over the past decades, and job creation has been one of the main concerns of policy makers over the years. The main purpose of this article is to evaluate employment policies in Iran during 1976-2016. During this period, government has implemented generating projects, granting cheap credits, tax and insurance exemption and encouraging investment in areas with high unemployment rates and attracted foreign investment in the form of development programs. In this paper, labor demand is considered equivalent to job creation so we have estimated the dynamic function of labor demand using the ARDL technique. The results showed that business environment, GDP, labor productivity, government spending, corporate income tax, non-public sector credit balances, capital saving and foreign direct investment had a significant relationship with employment in the period under review. But there was no significant relationship between real wage and employment.

Today, the issue of information and communication technology (ICT) and its role in reducing environmental pollutants is one of the most important issues in environmental economy. In fact, ICT help to increase environmental pollution through the production of ICT machines, energy consumption, and electronic waste recycling. While ICT is expected to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide by developing smart cities, transportation systems, power grids, industrial processes and energy savings. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of ICT on carbon dioxide emission in the Persian Gulf countries by panel data method during the period 2000-2015. The results showed that ICT had a direct effect on carbon dioxide emissions. Also square of ICT has a negative and significant effect on carbon dioxide emissions. Therefor results indicated an inverted U-shaped relationship between ICT and carbon dioxide emissions. Also, economic growth has a direct effect and square of economic growth has a negative effect on carbon dioxide emissions, which confirms the EKC hypothesis. Also, per capita energy consumption and trade have had a direct and significant effect on carbon dioxide emission. According to the results, the Gulf countries can help reduce carbon dioxide emissions and environmental pollution by developing information and communication technology.

Financial reforms, due to make a structural difference in quantity and quality of services provided in financial markets, is able to explain an important part of difference in growth and development between countries, and without any doubt, these changes effect on the labor productivity. In this study, had been paid to examine the nonlinear effect of financial reforms indicators (financial liberalization, financial development and financial integration) on labor productivity in 15 selected developing countries during the period of 2006-2017 with using of Markov Switching econometric technique. The results of examines show that the financial liberalization index (foreign direct investment) in both regimes has a negative effect on labor productivity. Financial development indicators (banking credits and the value of the trading stocks) also have a negative effect on labor productivity in first regime, but in second regime, we see a positive relationship. Finally, the Financial Integration Index (total of foreign portfolio investment and foreign direct investment on GDP) in both regimes has a positive effect labor productivity. Therefore, according to the results, it can be acknowledged a significant part of the labor productivity depends on financial reforms, so it seems necessary to provide more and more grounds for strengthening and expanding the indicators of the financial reform in above societies.

The strategy of export development instead of import substitution policy and self-sufficiency leads to the growth of industries and businesses and to the growth of GDP. Proper export policy-making leads to the implementation of the export development strategy and enhances the export performance of companies by decision-makers in government and other regulatory institutions. This study examines the impact of government policies for export promotion on export performance with emphasis on the mediating role of firm’s specific advantages. The statistical population of the study was all Mining Active Companies under the Ministry of Industry, Mine & Trade which was sampled using census sampling method of 150 samples. Data collection was done by a questionnaire whose validity was confirmed by experts and its reliability was confirmed by Cronbach's alpha coefficient and Composite reliability. Structural equation modeling and Smart-Pls3 software were used for data analysis. The results show that government policies for export promotion have a direct and significant impact on export performance and also it through the mediating variable, the firm’s specific advantages, affects on export performance indirectly. Formulation of government policies to enhance export capacity and use the synergistic benefits of the specific advantages, including export financing capacity, export marketing and management capabilities, enables high elasticity of the export field and increased performance.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of CAMEL financial health indicators on country،s banks lending within the bank lending channel. In order to analyze the Heterogeneity of banks' behavior in response to monetary policy, the variables called the interaction effect of the CAMEL indicators whit monetary policy have been defined in the model that are obtained by multiplying the monetary policy in each of these Ratios. In model estimation using GMM method uses the balance sheet and profit and loss statement panel data of the 24 banks in the period 1384-1396. results indicate that the monetary policy variable -monetary base- has a positive and significant relationship with bank lending and the CAMEL ratios change the intensity of monetary policy effectiveness on banks lending. In other words CAMEL indicators are a factor for banks to behave differently in response to monetary policy, which is the heterogeneous concept of banks' behavior. the impact of monetary policy on bank lending will deacrease with higher levels of liquidity and management quality indicators. But capital adequacy and asset quality strengthen the effectiveness of monetary policy on bank lending and earning indicator doesn’t have any effect. Also the degree of competition in the banking industry strengthens the effectiveness of monetary policy on bank lending.

There have been many studies on the effects of monetary policy on the exchange rate in the Iranian economy. But due to the successive structural changes and changes in the political regime, these effects are not expected to be linear and stable. Therefore, in this study, we want to examine the effect of nonlinear behavior of variable money volume on exchange rate by using STR regression models. For this purpose, we have used the annual data of the variables of GDP, interest rate, inflation rate, money supply and exchange rate during the period 1357-1397. Research shows that a significant nonlinear relationship between money supply and exchange rate is confirmed. Based on the results, the variables of money supply and inflation rate have had a significant negative and positive effect on the real exchange rate, respectively, during the study period. By controlling liquidity growth and transferring it to a low growth regime, the effect of variables such as inflation and interest rates on the exchange rate can be eliminated or reduced. According to the results of this article, at lower threshold levels of money supply, it is possible to use monetary policy to stimulate economic growth and real sector activities with low inflationary effects.

Financial development is one of the important issues that has always been of particular importance to the economy of any country. It is impossible to achieve economic growth and development without efficient financial institutions and adequate financial resources. The determinants of the level of financial development in countries include qualitative factors including political environment, institutional, legal and information infrastructures, regulation and supervision. Although there are many factors affecting financial development and there are many studies and theories in this area, what has been the least considered is the impact of qualitative and institutional factors on financial development. The main purpose of this study is to investigate a group of important non-economic and qualitative factors on financial development. To this end, we examined the impact of the average of 3 indices ICRG as an indicator of quality of institutions, the POLITY IV index of democracy, and the property rights, on banking indices as an indicator of financial development for 27 developing countries in Eurasia during the years 1999-2015. Based on this, a panel data econometric model was defined and estimated by the GMM method. The results of this study indicate that high quality of institutions, higher democracy and protection of property rights have a positive and significant effect on financial development in the countries studied.

The literature on economic growth and development shows that domestic and foreign investment have been one of the most important pillars of economic growth. On the other hand, empirical studies often point to the positive impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth, especially in less developed countries. This paper, based on the Simultaneous Equations System approach, examines the interrelationships between economic growth, FDI, and government policies along with other important macroeconomic variables. The results show that there is a significant positive correlation between FDI changes and economic growth in Iranian economy during the period of 1971-96. The government's expansionary fiscal policy in the form of increased infrastructure spending and lower tax revenues has had a significant positive impact on GDP and FDI changes. The human capital index also has a positive and significant effect on FDI changes, but an increase in the nominal exchange rate reduces FDI inflows into the economy. Finally, the dummy variable of the sanctions of 2012 has had a significant negative impact on GDP and FDI changes.

Establishing justice and reducing economic inequalities are important goals of the Islamic Shari'a and, moreover, the Islamic economy. The purpose of this paper is to examine financing and economic growth with an emphasis on the bank and capital market in Muslim countries in the years 2016-2000 using the generalized method of moments (GMM). The results show that the effect of stock market and bank on economic growth is positive and significant and only insurance market has not had a significant effect on economic growth. These results indicate that stock markets and credit markets play a significant and different role in supporting economic growth. Despite the relatively small size of Islamic banks compared to the economy and the overall size of the financial system, these banks have a positive effect on economic growth. Therefore, many Islamic countries suffering from low growth should expand their banking sector through the promotion of regulatory, regulatory and infrastructure environments. Considering the potential of the stock market in stimulating economic growth and increasing employment, paying attention to this market and establishing it for its development can have a positive and significant effect on improving the situation of macroeconomic variables and as a result of improving the economic well-being of the country.