نشریه آینده پژوهی ایران
سال ششم شماره 1 (بهار و تابستان 1400)

The Purpose of this article is to propose an appropriate model with regard to “characteristics of cyberspace” and “principles and foundations of the Islamic Republic of Iran”; A model that can describe the geometry of the Islamic Republic's encounter with the cyberspace. The research method of the present article is “Grounded Theory” and the input sources of this method are all reports and documents related to cyberspace in the country and participation in several meetings related to this issue in different levels of government. The main findings of the study include 23 cognitive propositions and approaches that are presented in two sections: “Dimensions of the phenomenon of cyberspace” and “Strategic principles of dealing with cyberspace”. The final results of the research are six general proposals that are presented under the title of “hexagonal pattern” and include the following: The first side is the completion and launching of the National Information Network, the second side is the formation of the second Internet or the creation of a transnational information network, the third side is the formation of a global coalition to reduce American authority in cyberspace and create an international legal system for cyberspace; the fourth side is the creation of dominance of discourse for reasonable and revolutionary facing with cyberspace, the fifth side is launching large non-governmental companies with a transnational approach and opening the field of innovation and the sixth side is creating cyber mobilization with the approach of producing effective content.

The irreplaceable role of cities in economic, cultural and political development of countries, their challenges and problems and the difficulty of their management has resulted in an increasing significance of theories, experiences and strategies concerning city transformation. In the relevant literature, numerous concepts and approaches try to offer images of future of cities. One of these concepts is smart cities. Also, participative foresight can play a role in creating future images of cities. This study seeks to offer recommendations on how to create local and brand-new images of futures of cities in Iran and improve the quality of urban foresight practices. A thick report of an event ethnography has been given from a foresight workshop conducted in Isfahan municipality about futures of Isfahan, 1420, based on observations, field notes by ethnographers and the theoretical interpretation of them. Utilization of participative deliberation and foresight techniques and event ethnography to create images of future is the innovative dimension of this paper. Adding materiality to future, deconstruction of technological utopianism discourse, conceptualization of foresight as a social capacity deriving from civic epistemologies and agonism, moving beyond used futures, and creation of neologisms can improve urban foresight practices.

One of the goals of the Islamic Revolution, considering its cultural dimensions, is to create a new Islamic civilization, which has been emphasized by the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution and today is considered as one of the needs of the Islamic society and even the Muslims of the world. For this reason, the main focus of the present study is to study the educational and cultural impulses in the formation of a new Islamic civilization based on the thoughts of the Leader of the Islamic Revolution. The question of the present study is: What are the most important educational and cultural drivers of Iranian society to achieve a new Islamic civilization? The method used by the present study to study the subject of modern Islamic civilization in the views of Ayatollah Khamenei is descriptive-analytical, which is obtained by examining the views and statements of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution and other sources and documentary books related to the subject. The findings of the present study show that the new Islamic civilization has important cultural impulses, which can include modeling based on justice, negation of materialism and attention to spirituality, attention to committed and specialized revolutionary forces, Scientificism and the upbringing of academic and educational elites committed and loyal to the values of the Islamic Revolution as the main drivers of modern Islamic civilization in the thoughts of Ayatollah Khamenei. Modern Islamic civilization, based on educational and cultural impulses, has both negative and positive aspects. Negative means criticizing Western civilization and exposing its moral, political, social and economic weaknesses. Because material advances such as machinery, industry, technology, and human wealth and education based on it cannot be indicative of a model civilization for humanity. On the positive side, the new Islamic civilization, by considering morality and spirituality, public comfort and security for Muslims and non-Muslims, the combination of religion and the world, and the promotion of spirituality, can be a fulcrum for pulling contemporary man out of unbridled Western morality, and introducing a competent Islamic and humane model.

Quranic activities in Iran have gone through different periods. After the approval of the Charter of Development of Quranic Culture, these activities have become more cohesive and various areas have been defined for it, but the lack of attention to future developments can reduce the effectiveness. The purpose is to identify the future challenges of these activities and to create a suitable environment for thinking about them.

The present study is descriptive in nature and in terms of purpose, it is an applied-developmental. A mixed exploratory research design and qualitative and quantitative methods have been used to advance the issues addressed in the article.

The fields of macro-management, governance, public education, religion, research and higher education, and manpower as major fields of human life will undergo dramatic changes in the future, which will strongly affect the corresponding parts of these fields in the field of Quranic activities and will pose numerous challenges for these activities.

Inability of researchers of Quranic science and knowledge in interacting and transmitting findings to the scientific community of the country, lack of familiarity with the concepts and teachings of Quran and lack of ability for Quranic activities in seminary and university graduates, inability of religious propaganda system to respond and defend the legitimacy of Quran. The value and non-norm of public Quran education in the culture of families and the general culture of the society, the lack of training system for managers and planners with sincere and efficient Quranic and the focus of entertainment in cyberspace and neglect of religious affairs are the most important challenges of Quranic activities in the future.

One of the most important of the national security of countries in order to protect their national interests is defense-military field and the country's defense power key factors to prevent deterrence of enemy threats. Meanwhile, the defense policies of countries, especially Iran, are strongly influenced by socio-cultural factors, and these factors have a significant role on the country's defense power. In this regard, this article raises the question “which of the socio-cultural factors affecting Iran's defense power are the key and most influential factors? The research has been done by basing the theory of strategic culture as a theoretical framework.

The research is a combination of descriptive-analytical and survey (using the opinion of experts and a questionnaire) in terms of method and applied-developmental in terms of purpose.

Fifteen significant factors and four factors as key socio-cultural factors affecting Iran's defense power were identified.

Dominant national ideology, religious beliefs, patriotism and resistance, popular government and unity between the nation and the military were identified as key factors affecting defense power.

Climate change due to greenhouse gas emissions, especially carbon dioxide, has dangerous consequences, the most important of which is global warming. The European Union, as a leader in reducing carbon emissions, has taken a number of key steps and set various policies and guidelines. Analyzing the actions and policies adopted by this union could help determine the correct strategy for environmental protection in our country.

This study presents a simulation model to analyze the effectiveness of EU policies to achieve related aims by 2030 to reduce carbon emissions, using a system dynamic approach to reduce carbon emissions.

The results show that the adoption of a policy alone cannot have the desired effect in reducing emissions. The results also indicate that the EU ETS emission management system alone has the lowest performance in reducing carbon emissions.

The scenario showing the adoption of the EU's three climate policies showed the best impact on reducing emissions by 2030. Among the moderating feedback loops on reducing carbon emissions, and in line with the EU's climate policy, action on energy efficiency and the EU ETS emission management system should be given more attention.

Given that the Internet of Things has been widely studied and considered and is increasing, so it is necessary to examine the factors affecting the application and acceptance of this technology as much as possible. Accordingly, the purpose of this study is to explain the relationships between the dimensions and indicators of the IoT adoption model in smart business.

From the point of view of purpose, this research is a descriptive research, from the philosophical point of view, it is based on the compositional approach, and in fact, it will use the chemo-facial approach. According to the combined approach of the research, first, criteria and sub-criteria were extracted based on interviews and a paradigm model was presented using the grounded theory method. Then, in the quantitative part, the validation of the presented paradigm model was performed based on the data collected based on a questionnaire. To evaluate the qualitative validity of the research, face validity and qualitative validity of the content and to evaluate the quantitative reliability, Cronbach's alpha method was used. In order to analyze the data and achieve the main goals, SPSS and Smart PLS soft wares were used.

The results of coding showed that 63 primary codes were identified in six categories: social dimension, cultural dimension, human dimension, technological dimension, financial dimension, management dimension, and government regulations. The final acceptance model with a GOF index of 0.491 indicates the high overall quality of the model and applicability in the study population. All the variables identified in the model, including infrastructure, management, technology, education and finally cultural and social, in the acceptance of electronic services, have an important and significant role and the relationship between endogenous and exogenous variables of the model has been significant. Priorities for the effects of the technology acceptance model variables were government rules and regulations (0.552), financial dimension (0.504) and socio-cultural dimension (0.419), respectively.

According to the research results, creating the necessary environment to facilitate the entry and launch of new technologies in the country is essential.

The present study seeks to research the future and draw a vision for new approaches that are independent of physical presence, in the processes of design and participation, based on the abilities of children in the use of digital social networks.

Documentary and library methods were used to identify the common tools of participation, their characteristics and the way they are used, and to examine the opinions of experts about the role of cyberspace in the lives of children in the present century. A descriptive survey method was used to study and analyze the experience of children using social networks in the pandemic era. The data collection tool is a researcher-made questionnaire and the sample size is 384 children and 384 parents according to Cochran's formula. Inferential statistics and SPSS25 software and one-sample t-test were used to analyze the data and validate the findings.

Digital mass communication leads to the development of the effectiveness of traditional methods of participation because children are able to use social networks, communicate with software faster than adults, interested in commenting and participating in group discussions based on virtual networks and the use of image language and the use of these networks is not limited to the pandemic era.

Mapping the future of partnerships with children based on the use of "online participation platforms", while opening new perspectives in the fields of partnership, design, programming and artificial intelligence, has led to improving the efficiency of participatory processes. It also provides a platform for children to make more comprehensive and thoughtful statements about issues related to them.

Abstract The main goal of this research is identifing the factors influencing the future of the rail transportation system in the freight sector. In this research, identifing the factors for the rail transportation system in the freight sector using a combination of library and developmental purpose, PESTEL model, Delphi method and SMART PLS software has been used in the analysis. The three stages of this research seek to present the most important factors affecting the future of rail freight in Iran. In the first stage, all factors were identified. In the second stage, consensus was reached using the Delphi method in three consecutive periods.In the third stage, based on the opinion of experts and the use of smartPLS software, out of 168 factors identified, 76 factors are considered more important as the main effective factors in Iran's 50-year foresight which were classified into 8 main categories. Identifying and planning for the factors that affect this industry is of particular importance. By identifying indicators, planners and policymakers will determine which indicators we are important. The indicators also warn policymakers and planners if we want to move towards total goal, which indicators should we turn into the optimal indicator.

traditional approaches to strategic planning in the face of confusion, uncertainty and environmental uncertainty are not flexible and do not have the appropriate response. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to identify and develop an environmental model affecting the strategic foresight of Iranian sports based on the STEEPELD model and to determine the key drivers. In fact, this study seeks to determine which Driver Forces can be effective in achieving the desired future of Iranian sports.

The present research is applied in terms of purpose, in terms of qualitative nature and in terms of implementation path in futuristic research, environmental scanning and survey. The statistical population was faculty members of sports management with associate degree and higher, who were selected by combined sampling. A 61-item questionnaire was designed to regulate environmental factors, which confirmed the convergent validity (0.622) and its composite reliability coefficient (0.868). The statistical methods used include: descriptive statistics, structural equation modeling (PLS) and Friedman ranking.

The results showed that the research model with GOF = 0.745 is approved by experts. Also, international trade, integration in sports management, development of sports philosophy, increase of sports standard per capita, increase of social capital, environmental policies, expansion of mass media and development of legal regulations as key drivers of effective strategic future of sports Iran were identified

Therefore, the model developed in this study can be effective as a guide in predicting the future of sports organizations.

The present study aimed to identify and categorize the effective drivers shaping the future of accounting education in Iran in a scientific and systematic manner.

Even if numerous methods have thus far developed for futures studies, it seems essential in most cases to identify the significant drivers affecting the future. For this purpose, the present study was an attempt to analyze the effective drivers in the future of accounting education through desk research methods and a survey of expert opinions, and then identify the most important ones using the Delphi method.

In total, 27 effective drivers shaping the future of accounting education in Iran were categorized based on the EPISTLU model, and then divided into seven groups; namely, economic, political, institutional, social, technological, legal, and academic. The study participants also included 15 experts engaged in the field of accounting and familiar with futures studies topics.

The categorization of the study findings with reference to the above-mentioned seven groups demonstrated that many intertwined drivers were involved in the future of accounting education in Iran. Accordingly, it is crucially important to reflect on all these various drivers and plan for them to shape the future of accounting education in this country. Therefore, analyzing and categorizing such drivers paves the way for prioritizing and determining the importance of each one in the future of accounting education in Iran.

The main purpose of the research is to explore the post-corona world to examine the effects of the corona crisis on the future, with an emphasis on change in the human ecosystem, in the transition from the aquatic trinity. It is based on post-positivist epistemology, which looks to the future with a qualitative approach and a forward-looking methodology based on the hermeneutic method. Changes in human life in the Covid 19 pandemic will be such that the history of human life can be divided into pre-corona and post-corona eras. In the post-Corona era, the world of the future, the intense desire for individualization and the transcendence of individual power, the age of unicorn identities of the foundation of knowledge, the attempt to achieve balance in all walks of life, the splitting of time, the quest to enter the artificial spirit, the intensity will take. The acceleration of change, with the entry of man into the cascade of great changes, will bring about a change in the biological system of the various worlds of human thought in the religious, political, economic, etc. layers. With the crisis caused by the outbreak of corona as a pandemic, people will fall into the "waterfall of change". In the future world of post-Corona, man will come out of the prison of the world created by others and seek a more humanized world. In the home of Pishravi, life will take on a new form and content in the "transformative moments and changeable behaviors and guerrilla actions" and in the micro-macro-world. The "Lord of the Moments" will replace the "Lord of the Rings".