نشریه آینده پژوهی شهری
سال یکم شماره 1 (تابستان 1400)

New cities have been built with the approach of attracting the population of large cities overflowing in their immediate vicinity, which will face environmental issues in the future, as the process of attracting population continues. Air and noise pollution caused by pendulum migration and physical development has led to the growth of environmental issues in the new city of Parand. Accordingly, this study examines the effects of the physical development of the new city of Parand on the future environment of the city. The type of research is applied and the method of the study is descriptive-analytical. The statistical population is specialists and experts and the sample size using multi-stage sampling method is 60 people. The required data has been collected through library method and field study (questionnaire). Inferential statistical methods such as regression coefficients, T-test and hierarchical analysis model have been used to analyze the data. Findings show that part of the environmental issues of Parand is affected by the urban complex of Tehran. Another part is due to the formation and development of Parand city itself، such as air pollution caused by industrial activities in the southern part of the city، pollution caused by urban and industrial wastewater and municipal waste production near Imam Khomeini International Airport close to Tehran-Saveh road and finally the prevailing winds in the region (west to east). Findings show that the growth rate of migration - physical development - urban growth rate has direct effects on increasing environmental issues in the new city of Parand in indicators such as noise and air pollution (being located in the Tehran-Saveh belt and increasing pendulum migration from the new city Parand to Tehran and Karaj) and environmental pollution due to the physical development of this city (pollution due to physical development and construction growth).

One the necessity for the growth and development of communities is the creation of suitable spatial and physical contexts for the use of public services and facilities by all sections of society. The physically disabled people are part of the community and like healthy people need access to and use of public facilities and services such as passing through the city and using parks. So to use the mentioned cases and to create a better possibility for the presence of the disables, especially in developed countries, very beautiful and appropriate designs have been made. However, the existence of some obstacles, especially in the way of design, architecture and urban planning, many urban spaces, especially public thoroughfares, parks and green spaces have lacked the necessary conditions to meet the access needs of people with disabilities. Being a part of society, disabled people like other citizens need access and optimal use of public facilities and services. So in this study، with the aim of gaining the satisfaction of this special group of citizens, as the target community, the current status of Karaj Nabovat Park as the scope of research have been explored. Due to the importance of the issue, recreation centers, especially parks, green spaces and urban gardens, should be designed and constructed in such a way that the physically disabled can be able to use such places. The research method is descriptive-analytical and the research data have been collected by the method of library studies, field research and present articles. The results of the research analysis indicate the existence of problems in the special services for the disabled and their traffic. Field studies in this study show that Nabovat Park has the necessary potential to become a suitable recreational space for the disabled people due to its size, age and special location. Therefore, suggestions to achieve this goal are also presented in this article.

A city grows physically-spatially with the aim of creating an environment with a beautiful, familiar and legible identity. In religious cities, in addition to these goals, the approach of providing services to pilgrims and religious tourists can be effective in the economic growth of the city. This approach can provide economic and job prosperity and other facilities for residents in a way that they will be in perfect harmony with the sanctity and the existing building of religious cities. Economic adaptation in the spatial hierarchical system in the city must be in line with the urban context in order to be able to balance religion، housing and the economy. The emergence and formation of Karbala city shows that in recent years, urban planning and plans to align the growth of the city in accordance with the main element and index, called the Court and Shrine of Imam Hussein (peace be upon him) has not been done. The use of the approved master plan of Karbala city has been able to pay partly attention to some dimensions and indicators of the city; and by emphasizing these factors can propose and design the development process of the city in accordance with the existing climate and conditions.The research method is applied in terms of purpose and "descriptive-analytical-historical" in terms of method and nature. Capabilities and challenges of spatial physical development of the city have been analyzed by Using library resources, documents, upstream plans, using geographical systems (GIS), remote sensing and interpretation of aerial and satellite maps and SWOT analysis method. Challenges have been identified using SWOT analysis method by observing the spatial hierarchy, passages and recognizing urban nodes.The results show that the main development strategy of Karbala city should be based on the application of economic and social development programs in different parts of the city. Through this, a suitable physical-spatial development that is the result of economic and social development of the city can be achieved and the best communication route between the central core and other parts of the city is established.

Viability refers to an urban system in which the social, physical, and mental health and quality of life of all its inhabitants are taken into consideration. On the other hand، the issue of citizen participation in the economic and social development of cities, has been considered in urban development studies and planning since several decades. Therefore, it will be a livable society that cares about the needs of the people of that society, respects their demands, and does not neglect the participation of citizens in the affairs of the city. The purpose of this article is to identify the relationship between social participation as one of the components of social capital and urban livability. To achieve this goal, a descriptive-analytical survey method has been used and to collect information, a researcher-made questionnaire has been applied. To analyze the research data, SPSS، GIS، super decision software has been used. The statistical population includes citizens of the five regions of Zahedan that 383 residents have been selected and studied by cluster sampling with systematic random sampling. The results of ranking the regions in livability indicators show that region 1 as a new region with a proportional distribution of land use and urban services، adequate access to educational and health services، security and urban environment is a relatively desirable region in Zahedan and region 3 with informal and turbulent housing texture is the most undesirable region in terms of social livability. The results of Pearson correlation coefficient test show high correlation between the components of social participation and the dimensions of social viability in the areas of Zahedan; this indicates that the more social participation among the citizens of Zahedan, the better the city is in terms of social viability.

The concept of the creative city has become a common paradigm and a new model of urban planning and policy since the mid-1990s, first in Britain and then in the United States. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the key factors affecting the creative city in Birjand with a scenario-based approach in the horizon of 1430. This research is applied based on its purpose; the research method is descriptive-analytical and in terms of the nature, it is analytical-exploratory due to its futurology approach. Data and information required for the research have been collected by documentary and survey methods (questionnaire). The statistical population of the research includes 20 experts, specialists and elites. MicMac and Scenario Wizard software have been used to analyze the indicators and criteria. The results of the analysis of the findings show that 16 key factors affect the future of the creative city of Birjand. Five scenarios, with different combinations of three optimal، static and critical situations, are also likely to occur in the creative city of Birjand، of which 26.25% are critical، 46.25% are static and 27.5% are optimal. Considering this situation, it seems that the optimal and static situations have occupied a major part of the scenario page, and the critical and static situations are in the next priorities, respectively. In the most optimistic case, this (fourth) scenario will have an almost suitable situation out of 5 scenarios affecting the city of the creator, which alone has 6 favorable situations, and the other 4 scenarios are less desirable than this (fourth) scenario.

Rural settlements, as the smallest geographical unit, have been formed under the influence of various factors in the geographical context and in the form of human-environment relations. Rural areas around the world tend to offer similar characteristics. Populations are spatially dispersed. Agriculture is often dominant and in some cases the economic sector and the opportunities to mobilize resources are limited. The aim of this study is to evaluate and analyze the population structure of rural settlements in Sistan and Baluchestan province. The research method is descriptive-analytical according to the research topic; the purpose is applied and the data have been collected by documentary method. The statistical population in this study includes all rural settlements in Sistan and Baluchestan province in 2016. Spatial correlation tests in Geoda software and Moran’s I have been used to analyze the data. The results of Moran correlation show that the amount of spatial correlation is significant and positive in all cases at the 95% confidence level and there are significant differences in terms of spatial pattern. Also, there is always a big difference between different regions of the province in terms of distribution of specified criteria.