نشریه مدیریت بحران
سال دهم شماره 2 (پیاپی 20، پاییز و زمستان 1400)

In recent years, the expansion of higher education centers and universities has led to a growing number of students and student dormitories. Due to the large number of students in the dormitories, fires and accidents in these areas are considered as a serious threat. In this regard several measures have been taken to limit and reduce injury in dormitories in the event of an accident involving both structural and non-structural measures. These measures first provide safety and then enhance the environmental potential for rapid evacuation (i+n the event of an accident). Therefore, several studies have focused on reducing evacuation duration by simulating emergency evacuation. For this purpose, this paper simulates the human evacuation in the student dormitory of Block 1 of Shahid Beheshti University (with 178 students simulated) during the accident in Pathfinder software. In addition, physical depth and visual depth were analyzed by input-based Depth map software to reduce spatial hierarchy and faster access. The simulation results showed that preliminary optimization of the dormitory with furniture and equipment (non-structural measures) was a prerequisite for dormitory immunization to be evacuated, but due to its negligible effect on evacuation time (from 223.7 seconds to 219.8 seconds) it is not enough. Therefore, after optimization with furniture and equipment, the dormitory was evaluated with two methods of structural intervention (construction of emergency stairs with two exit doors) and reduction of the population of users. In the first method, with the structural intervention, the evacuation time was reduced from 219.8 seconds to 150.5 seconds, and in the second method by reducing the population of users in the end of second and third floors from 4 to 3 persons, evacuation time decreased from 219.8 seconds to 178.8 seconds which was suggested as a less expensive method. In the end, a method was proposed to make the dormitory work efficient with respect to the spatial configuration for emergency evacuation.

Behavior of buildings against past earthquakes indicates their susceptibility. In order to reduce vulnerability and ensure safety of buildings against earthquakes and, consequently, undertake crisis management, it is specifically important to use qualified constructors in their construction. The executive bylaw for Article 33 of Building Engineering System Act requires owners to use qualified constructors. However, the formal nature of qualified constructors and lack of practical use of them cause the upcoming problems. In this work, the success rate of qualified constructors use plan in the construction of urban buildings is investigated and, then, weaknesses of the plan are identified and the important duties of constructors from the viewpoint of employers are priorities. Using the questionnaire and obtaining the needed information from Qazvin Province Engineering System Organization, success rate and weaknesses of the plan are examined from the viewpoints of employers, supervisors and real and legal qualified constructors. Moreover, based on the view of authorities and experts, important duties of qualified constructors are collected and their indices are determined. Using the Likert model-based quationnaire, the determined indices are weighed and priorities. The research findings showed that use of qualified constructors in the construction of urban buildings was very low and factors such as type of contract, qualification level of constructors considering the construction level per city are effective in the success rate. Weight of the determined indices for the importance of duties of contructors demonstrated all the indices for the application of qualified constructors are effective and of special significance.

Population growth and economic considerations are two main urban constraints that have brought many consequences including vertical growth and increasing subsurface spaces development. Many roles, functions and abilities can be counted for subsurface spaces. Lack of land ownership, impunity and the possibility of continuity of infrastructure services, the transfer of some facilities that are harmful to urban environment to the underground level, reducing energy consumption, reducing environmental pollution, exploiting civil defense and many other issues of are among the benefits of subsurface spaces that are being deployed. In this research, using Q methodology based on the results of studies related to subsurface spaces and resiliency and the analysis of existing discursive space, a comprehensive understanding of the role of subsurface space development in resiliency of cities was obtained; then, using experts' contributions, different perspectives were identified and categorized so that they would go beyond the set of analyses presented. The findings of the research based on Q's analysis of the factor analysis indicated four approaches to the role of sub-surface development in resilient cities. The first approach reflects the continuity of services; the second approach is rescue and relief, the third approach is urban safety and security, and the fourth approach is environmental protection. In fact, in this study, the capacity of subsurface spaces that could increase the resiliency and return ability of cities against all kinds of threats and accidents was determined.

The dynamics of the natural environment causes changes in spatial and temporal scales. These changes can lead to morphogenesis processes that sometimes lead to destructive and irreversible effects. One of these changes is the mass movement, especially the landslide, which causes a lot of financial and human losses in different geographic areas each year, resulting in severe erosion of the soil. Shaho area in Kurdistan province and Kamyaran city has been selected as one of the areas susceptible to landslide in terms of its specific topographic and geographical location. n this research, in order to investigate and zoning the susceptible areas of slipping, 8 slope parameters, slope, elevation, lithology, land use, distance from fault, distance from the river and distance from communication were used as factors affecting the research problem. Also, two methods of fuzzy logic and ANP were used to analyze the data and select the optimal location. The results show that the study area has a relatively high slip potential. According to the results of this research, the study area was classified in terms of slip potential in four classes. The degree of slipperiness of the region varies greatly (7.5%), high (27%), moderate (31%) and low (34.5%). Due to the density of rural areas and population density in the area as well as tourist status of the area, it is necessary for the authorities to identify the areas susceptible to landslides to take necessary protective measures and measures.

The aim of this study is to investigate Capacity-Building of local communities in community-based crisis management with a cultural approach in the governorate of Kerman province. The method of this research is applied and mixed according to the type of data. The presentation of the pattern is done in a qualitative meta-hybrid method; thus, using the meta-combined method, 106 articles in the field of crisis management were reviewed and with the help of content analysis, the relevant dimensions and codes were extracted and the importance and priority of each was determined using the Shannon quantitative entropy method. The statistical population of the present study is all of the employees of the governorate of Kerman province. Through Cochran's formula, 126 people were selected and a research questionnaire was distributed among them. In order to analyze the data, confirmatory factor analysis with SMART PLS software version 2 was used. According to the research findings, indicators extracted from articles are in three dimensions: before the crisis (education and awareness, social and cultural capital, theoretical participation, spiritual capital), during the crisis (practical participation, communication, managing people's emotions), and after the crisis (collective memories, social participation, Mass media and identity). Among these, the dimensions before, during and after the crisis explain 99%, 98% and 98% of the changes in the community-based crisis management model with a cultural approach, respectively. Also, the results of confirmatory factor analysis showed that all components and indicators of the research model were confirmed with 99% confidence. In the third stage of the research and in order to prioritize the components and indicators of the research, the Soara technique was used and the components and indicators of the research were prioritized. The results showed that the components of general education, practical participation and social participation with the final weights of 0.42, 0.35, 0.27 have the first to third ranks, respectively.

In the present age, according to the new approach of the axial influence of the hostile countries that have moved the battlefield to urban areas, the enemy seeks to disrupt the functioning of the critical inftastructures of the target country. One of the critical infrastructure is the transportation system, which consists of various parts, including the fuel supply network and fuel supply stations. Fuel supply stations in urban areas, in addition to the serious role of refueling vehicles, have a high potential for major accidents due to the presence of flammable fuel storage tanks. These events can include process events and intentional and hostile events. However, by applying the principles of land use planning correctly, the risk of such events can be greatly reduced. Therefore, this research intends to use PHAST software and create a spatial information system. It also attempts to discover and apply indicators to extract the vulnerability of each of the neighboring uses of these sites; integrate the consequences of an accident at a fuel supply point and facilitate land use planning by providing application maps.

Designing health facilities has long been one of the most important issues for health planners. During the disaster, the health network, which includes a set of clinics and hospitals, are activated to help the injured people. The purpose of this study is to add temporary emergency treatment centers to the network, in order to prevent the influx and overcrowding at the two levels of clinics and hospitals during the disaster and to create a hierarchical structure to serve the casualties. In this paper, a mixed linear integer programming with integers is used. Gams optimization software was used to solve the model. The results showed that the hierarchical model reduced the crowding in hospitals and clinics during disaster compared to the simple model. In this model, while optimizing the cost of setting up emergency treatment centers, the time and distance traveled for casualties are minimized. Using the proposed model of the best places to establish emergency treatment centers among the selected candidate points and then the optimal allocation of injuries is determined hierarchically from city areas to temporary emergency treatment centers, and from there to clinics and ultimately to hospitals.

At the time of natural disasters occurrence, prompt responding and providing required items to affected areas is the most urgent priority. Moreover, given a stochastic nature of the crisis severity and the number of the affected areas,effective planning is a crucial task. In this study, two major steps in the disaster management cycle,namely preparation and response phases, are formulated using a multi-objective mathematical model under uncertainty. In the preparation phase, the optimum location of relief distributions, medical centers and inventories of relief goods to storage items received from suppliers are determined. Also, in the second step or response phase, the amount of relief goods transported from supply points to relief distribution centers and from these centers to affected areas as well as the number of injured people transferred to medical centers and hospitals through ambulances and aerial transportationare determined. Moreover, regarding the problem nature, its key parameters (e.g., demand and the number of injured people) are considered to be uncertain. Furthermore, given that the failureof facilities in both supplier and distributor sections can adverselyaffect their service provision, this issueisconsidered in the model. To efficiently solve the model, the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II (NSGA-II) and the multi-objective grey wolf optimizer (MOGWO) areused. Comparison of the results obtained from the proposed meta-heuristics with the exact solution method indicates that these algorithms can provide acceptable solutions in a reasonable amount of computational time.

The primary purpose of the present study is to determine Critical Success Factors (CSFs) of Business Continuity Management (BCM) in the Iranian petrochemical industry. Based on an in-depth review of previous studies, the sub-factors affecting BCM were extracted. Then, exploratory factor analysis and confirmatory factor analysis were applied to identify and verify the CSFs of BCM. The results demonstrate the significance of nine CSFs as follows: “business continuity strategy”, “contingency planning”, “crisis management”, “emergency management”, “enterprise risk management”, “disaster recovery”, “business continuity culture”, senior management commitment and support”, and “business impact analysis”. As this study was performed in the Iranian petrochemical industry, caution should be taken on the generalization of our findings. Practical implications - The identified CSFs could provide useful insights to successfully implement BCM for the managers of the surveyed organizations, especially, and other organizations in general. This research could develop theoretical literature on the CSFs of BCM and create a deep insight into the implementation of BCM.

Natural disasters have increased in recent decades and the issue of locating and routing have been identified and introduced as the most important issues in crisis situations. This importance is due to the fact that if the relief facilities are located correctly, it will be possible for the injured to have easier access to these facilities. On the other hand, the correct routing of vehicles will prevent waste of time due to their very significant role in times of crisis. Therefore, the present study used a two-stage model of locating and routing in crisis situations. In the first stage of the model, the decision maker is responsible for selecting the location of distribution centers from among the available candidates and in the second stage, the best route of transportation with the shortest distance should be identified due to time limit. In this regard, to show the efficiency and evaluation of the proposed model, several problems have been solved definitively and different sensitivities have been analyzed on its effective parameters. The results showed that the two effective factors of capacity and coverage radius were the parameters that had the greatest impact on the model.

Drought is one of the natural hazards that has far-reaching consequences. Due to the dependence of the rural economy on the agricultural sector, the vulnerability of farmers to this risk is very high. Researchers say the most important way to reduce farmers' vulnerability is to diversify their sources of income. Therefore, the present study investigates the role of diversity of agricultural and non-agricultural income sources on the vulnerability of farmers in rural areas to drought. The research method is structurally descriptive-analytical and practical in nature. Independent variables are the diversity of agricultural and non-agricultural economic activities and the dependent variables are vulnerable to three economic, social and ecological dimensions. Cronbach's alpha coefficient of 0.94 indicates the optimal reliability of the research instrument. In this study, 271 rural farmer families in 15 villages of Chenaran city participated in the research. The results of analysis of variance showed that "non-agricultural diversity" has reduced the vulnerability of rural farming households. So that the average vulnerability in households with diverse non-agricultural income sources is 3.72, semi-diverse 3.88 and non-diverse 18.4. Also, crop diversity has not had a statistically significant effect on the vulnerability of rural farming households in the face of drought. According to the results of the analysis of the "non-agricultural diversity" route, the rate of vulnerability of rural farming households has decreased by -0.23. Because farmers with a variety of non-farm income sources are less vulnerable to crises and sudden shocks such as drought, it is important for planners to adopt appropriate strategies to strengthen the diversity of non-farm economic activities in drought-prone areas.

Crisis is a process that occurs due to a number of natural and abnormal factors, causing a great deal of damage to various sectors of the economy and society. Due to its specific climatic and geographical conditions, Iran has always been exposed to natural threats such as drought and suffers many economic and social losses, especially in agriculture. Kerman province is one of the important areas in the production of crops, Garden products and livestock in the country, which its economy is highly dependent on agriculture, which has led to excessive use of water resources in the province. Due to the location of this province in an arid and desert area, it is susceptible to drought phenomenon; this phenomenon is one of the most chronic and devastating natural disasters which will have many adverse effects on the economic, social and rural development of Kerman province. Today, using comprehensive crisis management programs and the use of effective measures, together with low-cost and multi-purpose applications, as well as low-cost and multi-functional steps before, during and after the crisis, it is possible to reduce the severity and extent of damages and losses caused by the crisis. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the implementation status of drought crisis management programs in Kerman province, in order to provide solutions for developing these programs in different parts of the province. The present study was an applied one and main tool of research was questionnaire and SPSS22 software was used to analyze the data. The results of this study indicate that the implementation of drought crisis management programs in Kerman province was undesirable. Therefore, to eliminate the shortcomings or obstacles that stand in the way of these programs; by providing facilities and organizing the market of drought-resistant plants and mechanizing other farms, as well as training and awareness of farmers, in relation to drought crisis management programs, the implementation of these programs has been prioritized and since the participation of local communities can play an important role in the implementation and development of drought crisis management programs, it is necessary to focus more on the issue of farmers' participation in the design and implementation of drought crisis management programs and community-based crisis management should be a priority in policy-making and planning; In addition, evaluating the implementation of drought crisis management programs in order to assess the successes and failures of these programs should be considered as an ongoing process.