فصلنامه پژوهش های رشد و توسعه اقتصادی
پیاپی 45 (زمستان 1400)

From the point of view of scholars in economics, privatization is not only considered as a tool for restructuring the economy and increasing competition, but also an essential base for economic growth and development. According to that, the first and most important goal of privatization program in the General Policies of Principle (44) of the constitution, is to increase the economic growth. However, most studies have assessed the effects of privatization just on micro variables in economy, and only a few of them are focused on macro objectives such as economic growth. In this regard and due to uncertainties in the rate of achievement of this goal, as the result of the implementation of the mentioned program, this study is focused on evaluation of the privatization effect on economic growth of the country for the period 1991-2017. For this purpose, the human capital model and also the fully modified least squares (FMOLS) has been used. This method does not have the limitations of the ARDL method, such as the synchronization and exogenous variables and the resulting errors in estimation, which has been used in previous studies. In this study, privatization variable is considered as income from the transferring. Estimating the model and performing statistical tests, findings show that the impact of privatization on economic growth is positive and significant during the mentioned period.

In this article, the interaction effects of growth and happiness in the framework of a dynamic simultaneous equations panel data model have been considered in the OPEC countries during the period of 2005–2016. Also, according to the resource curse hypothesis, the threshold effects of oil rent on both economic growth and happiness have been tested. The estimation results have indicated that the first lag of happiness has had an insignificant impact on growth but the first lag of growth has had a significant negative impact on happiness. In other words, it can be argued that the benefits of economic growth in the oil oriented countries under this study are not uniformly distributed across all parts of society. Also, in the framework of the mentioned model, the effect of oil rent on happiness and growth has been threshold. In other words, before the threshold of 26.25% of the ratio of oil rents to GDP, the oil rent had a positive effect on economic growth, but after the threshold, it had a negative effect on growth, which indicates the phenomenon of resource curse in OPEC countries. A similar result has been obtained on the effect of oil rent on happiness, so that before the threshold of 26.92% of the ratio of oil rent to GDP, oil rent has had a positive and significant effect on happiness, but after exceeding this threshold, Oil rents have had a negative effect on happiness, which could reflect the existence of the Easterlin paradox in the countries.

The economic growth gap between countries is one of the most important economic realities, and it is important to recognize the main causes. In this regard, the present study uses the statistical evidence of 91 countries over 2003-2007 and the analysis of the spatial theil index to estimate the components of the economic growth gap of countries. The results show that the share of neighborhood effects in determining the economic growth gap is more than the share of productivity difference. Also, the share of spatial effects in the growth difference of European countries and the share of productivity difference in the growth difference of Asian countries has been higher than other factors. In addition, the economic growth of European countries is convergent and Asian countries are divergent. According to the estimated model by GMM approach, industrialization is one of the main factors for the difference in economic growth of countries. Therefore, with the development of industry and increasing productivity, Iranian economy can be to converge to the top economies.

Financial stress and political risk as effective factors on the behavior of economic agents lead to uncertainty and changes in expectations and they have important role for analyzing the country's economic growth. According to the importance of this issue, in present study after construction of the financial stress and political risk index in Iran, the effects of these two variables on the country's economic growth (per capita GDP growth during the period 1396 - 1388 have been investigated using seasonal data with ARDL Bounding Test. Also we will estimate the effect of financial stress and political risk on the other economic performance including gross fixed capital formation and final consumption expenditure growth in two separate models.The results of models showed that the increase in the financial stress will has a negative impact on the economic growth, gross fixed capital formation and final consumption expenditure growth,and an increase in the political risk index which means reducing in the political risk in country, will has a positive impact on these variables. In other words, increasing financial stress in the country during the period 2009 - 2018 will lead to a decrease in per capita GDP growth, a decrease in the gross fixed capital formation and a decrease in the final consumption expenditure growth and decreasing in the political risk leads to improvement in the economic performance.

Financial development is one of the important and effective factors on the countries economic development and it is considered by planners and policymakers. Financial development is a multifaceted concept that, in addition to the monetary and banking dimension, includes other dimensions such as financial freedom, quality of governance and oversight, technological advances and existing institutional capacity. So this study, identifies 16 effective variables on financial development index and ranks them using the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) in Iran during 1991-2017.Inclusion probability indicates that liquidity Ratio and Credit Risk are the most effective economic factors on Iran's financial development. Inclusion probability indicates that the size of the government, the rate of inflation, the openness of trade, the ratio of participation bonds and the size of the banking market take third to seventh rank regarding their effects on financial development model of Iran respectively. These variables have positively affected on the financial development index. Also, corruption control rank and government effectiveness rank with 44% and 36% probability of occurrence are the most effective non-economic and institutional factors in the financial development model of Iran, respectively, and affect the financial development index in a negative direction.On the other hand, there is no significant relationship between government budget deficit and financial development in Iran, due to the low probability of this variable in the model; it seems that this variable can affect financial development only through the channel of other variables included in the model.

The main aim of this paper is to investigate the threshold effects of good governance index on economic growth for upper middle income countries and presence of other variables, including education expenditures, gross capital formation, and inflation rate and trade openness over the period 1996-2018. For this purpose, the Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) model has been utilized for model estimation. The estimation results of model reject the linearity hypothesis, and estimate a continuous transition function with two regimes that gives a threshold at good governance of -0.94 with speed of transition 1.74 for investigated countries. Moreover the study results indicate good governance, trade openness, education expenditures and gross capital formation have a positive impact on economic growth that their impacts are increased in the values above a threshold is calculated for good governance. The other results indicate that the influencing coefficient of the inflation rate variable is positive and significant in two regimes. Though, its impact is declined in second regime. Hence, improving the quality of governance and efficient institutions promote the economic growth and development in the selected countries. Moreover, the transparency, government effectiveness and control of corruption indices have positive and significant impacts on the real GDP growth in selected countries.

This paper aims to study the non-linear and threshold effects of the macroeconomics variables on inflation in Iran's economy using the sequential seasonal periodic data from 1991 to 2018 based on the Soft Transition Regression (STR).In the developed model, the cash growth was selected as threshold variable with the approximate sum of 6 percent (24 percent a year) as the threshold limit. The results show that the linear approximation cannot satisfactorily explain the non-linear effects of the oil incomes and other variables in different regimes. In other words, the sequential non-linear pattern, having considered the regime changes and the changing indices during time, The results show that, depending on the regime conditions, other macro variables such as current expenditures, construction expenditures and economic growth exacerbate inflation. Moreover, in high regime, the price level deviation from the long-term balanced relation, is a very significant factor in inflation acceleration, to such extent that inflation exorbitantly reacts to this gap.In different regimes the oil incomes have not had meaningful or significant effects on inflation, as it seems that the effect of this variable on inflation is controlled to a very great extent by other variables. The legislation authority, by controlling the cash growth and transferring it to the low growth regime, is able to abort or reduce the effect of many other variables such as current or construction expenditures.

The main purpose of this study is to optimize the production capacity of small and large industries in the path of economic development; Markov-switching chain approach. In this study, with the help of econometric techniques and using the Markov-switching chain approach, the production capacity of each small and large industry during the years (2001-2016) was estimated. In order to determine the optimal level of production capacity in small and large industries with two-digit code ISIC.Rev.2 and ISIC.Rev.3 It was used more. In this method, after collecting data and converting current prices to fixed, econometric techniques, especially the logarithmic transcendental cost function method are used. The results of data analysis in large industries showed that; The actual production level is 97645.6 million rials per year. And is acceptable in terms of analysis and indicates the optimal level of production and the minimization point as a function of the average total cost. The average value of real output of industrial enterprises in large industries at the production level is less than the optimal value. In other words, the utilization of production capacity in these industries has been 59%. Also, the results of analysis in small industries showed that; The actual production level is 614213.8 million rials per year, which indicates the minimizing point as a function of the average cost of all small industries. The average value of real output of each industrial enterprises in the production sector of small industries was 654213.8 million rials per year,