نشریه آینده پژوهی شهری
سال یکم شماره 2 (پاییز 1400)

With the spread of urbanization, issues such as urban resilience to sustain cities in the face of natural and man-made disasters have come to the fore. Occurrence of natural disasters such as floods, earthquakes and hurricanes often have devastating effects on human settlements, destroying buildings and infrastructure and imposing far-reaching socio-economic consequences on communities. Therefore, in this study, the degree of social resilience in the dilapidated fabric of Zabol city has been studied with a futuristic approach.This research, using the technique of cross-impact analysis and using the Wizard scenario software, has measured the degree of social resilience in the worn-out fabric of Zabol city at the horizon of 1420. This research is based on the applied research approach in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical method. The statistical population of the study was 30 experts and specialists in the fields of urban planning, crisis management and futures studies who were selected by purposive sampling.The results show that 15 key factors are involved in measuring the social resilience of Zabol city, for which 45 possible situations in the future were considered and designed as a 45 45 45 crossover effect matrix; Then, by obtaining the opinions of experts and based on the analysis of Scenario Wizard software, 6 strong scenarios were extracted. Out of 6 strong scenarios, 2 scenarios (Scenarios 2 and 4) are in good condition, which shows the ideal conditions for social resilience in the worn-out fabric of Zabol city, and the other 4 scenarios (Scenarios 1, 3, 5 and 6) in They are in a critical state where there is a need to plan to reduce the negative effects of their occurrence.

Every city goes through ups and downs in order to achieve prosperity; Sometimes factors contribute to its flourishing, and sometimes some problems put this flourishing at risk. A clear understanding and use of these factors is important in planning and reforming policies and supporting some of the structures and mechanisms that influence prosperity; For this reason, it is necessary to know the factors that encourage and hinder prosperity in any city. The purpose of this study was to investigate and evaluate the effects of urban flourishing on urban viability in Saravan. This research is applied based on purpose and descriptive-analytical research based on its nature and method. Data collection was done through library resources and survey. The main research tool is a questionnaire. The statistical population size was 60014 people and the sample size was 384 people based on Cochran's formula. The results of one-sample t-test show that Saravan city is not in a good position in terms of urban prosperity indicators. Quality of life index with beta value of 0.314 had the highest and production ability index with beta coefficient of 0.126 had the least impact on the viability of Saravan city. Infrastructure index with beta coefficient of 0.254, equality and social justice index with beta coefficient of 0.212 and environmental sustainability index with beta coefficient of 0.158, respectively, in the second to fourth ranks of the most influential urban prosperity indices on They are located in the city of Saravan. Also, among the indicators of urban prosperity in Saravan, the infrastructure index with an average of 3.235 has the highest average and the environmental sustainability index with an average of 2.277 has the lowest average.

In recent years, the global economy has witnessed a very significant growth of the tourism industry. However, this growth and dynamism was severely disrupted by the global outbreak of coronary heart disease. The aim of the present study is the role of corona virus in the creative destruction of tourism in Chabahar. This research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of research method. The method of data collection is documentary and field (questionnaire). The statistical population is the citizens of Chabahar. The sample selected using Cochran's method is 351 people. In data analysis, depending on the scale of variables and objectives, the mean, one-sample t-test and structural equation modeling (SEM) in SPSS and Amos software environment have been used. According to the results of T-test, the situation of the mentioned dimensions in Chabahar city is higher than the normal average level. Also, the role of corona virus on the creative destruction of tourism in the city of Chabahar was studied by modeling structural equations in Amos software. Based on the results, anxiety caused by Corona virus had a direct and significant effect on the creative destruction of tourism (P = 0.0001, β = 0.88) in Chabahar. Also, the amount and direction of investment (P = 0.036, β = 0.13) has a direct and significant effect on the creative destruction of tourism in the city of Chabahar. The highest factor load is related to the index of satisfaction with the presence of tourists from the variable of people's attitude towards tourism (0.9) and then the indicators of fear of coronavirus and concern about the transmission of the virus to others from the variable of coronary anxiety, respectively. Factor loads were 0.89 and 0.88, respectively

Sustainable urban development is the main axis of planning and urban management as the custodian of urban affairs always strives to achieve it. Dilapidated urban structures are part of today's cities that face many problems in economic, social, physical, environmental and managerial dimensions. Enjoys.This research tries to study the status of existence and planning to improve its status in order to achieve future stability in the area with a futuristic research approach. Has collected its requirements by library documentation method and field studies and a questionnaire of 400 samples estimated by Cochran sampling method. Data analysis was performed using AHP-TOPPSIS analysis method and SWOT analysis method and comparison of factors in the range.According to the obtained results, among the sustainability factors, social factors are the most important and among the indicators, three indicators of social interaction, vitality and user mixing have the highest coefficient. The results of SW1 + 604OT analysis show that the use of aggressive strategies (WO) is the first priority to promote sustainability in the area with a futuristic approach.

The smart cityis an innovative city with sustainable economicdevelopment, quality life and equipped withmodern infrastructure in whichservice, economic, social and governance processes will be carried out accurately, quickly and easily. The purpose of this study is spatial analysis of urban smart city indicators in Zahedan. According to the objectives of the research, the type ofresearch is applied and the research method is descriptive-analytical.The method of data collection and information is documentary and survey.Since the spatial analysis of smart city indicators is also a multi-criteria decision-making problem, therefore, in the present study, the Vikor multi-criteria decision-making model as well as the pairwise weighting with the hierarchical analysis model Fuzzy (FAHP) has taken place.The results of one-sample t-test showed that the indicators of smart city in Zahedan are all below the desired average (3)and are in an unfavorable situation. Smart Dynamics Index with an average of 2.832, Smart People Index with an average of2.809, Smart Life Index with an average of2.755, Intelligent Environment Index with an average of2.769 and Smart Governance Index with an average of 2.887are all in an unfavorable situation.The results of Vickor model also show that region1 with a weight value of 0.087 is in the first priority. In other words, this region is in the best condition in terms of smart city indicators.Zone 2 with a weight of 0.165 is in the second priority, Zone5with a weight of0.324 is in the third priority, Zone with a weight of 0.787 is in the fourth priority and Zone 4 with a weight of 0.857 is in the last priority.The results show that the areas of Zahedan city are in an unbalanced situation in terms of smart city indicators and in thi regard, the five areas of the city are very different from each other.Keywords: Spatial Analysis, Smart City, Zahedan City.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of urban public space on the dimensions of 18-year-old citizens’ social health in Kerman. According to the nature of the variables, the research method is descriptive-analytical and was conducted by a survey. Statistical population include all the people above 18 years old in Kerman. There were 508984 people, of which 384 people were selected as a sample based on Morgan table by multi-stage cluster sampling method and in order to collect information in this study, keez’s 2004 Social Health Questionnaire reliability (0.78) and obtained reliability questionnaire (0.74) were used. Also, for statistical analysis, the partial least squares method by Smart PLS software was used. Findings obtained from hypothesis testing showed that urban public space has an impact on social prosperity, social solidarity, social cohesion, social acceptance and citizens’ social participation. As a result, it can be asserted that urban public space has an effect on the ability to perform social roles effectively and efficiently; person’s evaluation and recognition of their roles in society and the quality of their relationship with other people, relatives and social groups.

Today, the issue of inequality and spatial imbalances between urban and rural settlements is an important issue for economists and regional planners. Existence of economic duality, growth poles and dispersion of rural areas are among the effects of this phenomenon. Therefore, in order to achieve balanced and integrated development in the regional space, creating a balanced and systematic hierarchy of settlements is one of the basic needs, among which attention to small towns is one of Balancing solutions to this situation. The aim of this study was to identify the status of settlement pattern, how to concentrate and the process of population distribution in the regional space of Kalaleh. In this regard, 11 villages have been considered as a sample and first entropy models have been used to measure the concentration of population in the network of settlements. Findings obtained from the entropy coefficient show the population imbalance in Kalaleh urban area has a coefficient of (0.572). In fact, spatial imbalance prevails in the urban area of ​​Kalaleh.