فصلنامه تحقیقات مدلسازی اقتصادی
سال یازدهم شماره 44 (تابستان 1400)

The aim of this study is to theoretically investigate the role of the bank deposit market structure in how effective micro and macro prudential policies in determining the regulatory capital of banks in combination with monetary policy. To achieve this, a partial equilibrium analytical framework has been developed that includes rational economic entities and the possibility of contagion risk in the banking system in order to achieve more explicit and tangible results. In general, it will be shown that the imperfect structure of the bank deposit market as a policy transmission channel (which is less considered in the literature) can significantly change the micro and macro implications of such policies. Specifically, the effects of these policies on allocation and stabilization efficiency will be followed in terms of the types of conceivable equilibria for deposit rates, expected net returns, expected markup, and the level of expected effort of banks operating in the banking system. Expected markup capital elasticity of banking system smaller than one at the micro and macro levels play a special role in prudential policies. Each bank interactively with other banks would shape its solutions and expectations towards upcoming states of the economy (in so doing customizing its balance sheet asset side) along with key determinants for its solvency in respecting its financial obligations to depositors and whereby touching depositors’ confidence in its performance so hard that seizing utmost share in deposit market by bidding appropriate deposit rate. The deposit rate together with the level of monitoring efforts would further hit banking sector contagion risk drawing in its associated externalities and under well-defined conditions could expose the banking system to higher fragility.

The change of theoretical base in the area of welfare economy and due to economic evolution along time, in recent decades happiness has been considered as an important index for measuring welfare in individual and social levels along with other initial proxies such as wealth, consumption, gross domestic production. This particularly has attracted many economists attention such that they investigate the impact of economic variables on happiness. Government is an unclear and effective factor over nations happiness. Because government functions in expanding happiness through two channels. Direct channel and indirect channel. Therefore, the impact of governance over happiness increase is significant. This study is using panel data for investigating the impact of governance over happiness. Six Kaufmann governance indices has been used for assessing 112 nations governance in time period of (2006-2019). These six indices have been divided into two sub-index technical quality and democratic quality and has been evaluated by three equations. Also the sample was divided in two groups and the impact of governance on happiness was studied carefully. Income variable along with two control variables government expenditures and misery index were added to the function. These study findings indicate that there is a positive relationship between increase in income, governance improvement and happiness expansion. The effectiveness of governance quality in parallel with increasing happiness is considerable to democracy quality. This result is confirmed in all poor and rich nations, and its impact on poor nations is more than the rich ones. Income has significant direct effect on expanding happiness. Income coefficients are positive in each 3 group and for the poor is greater than the rich. Two control variables government expenses and misery index in all countries have positive and negative relationship with happiness respectively. The existent relationship holds for rich nations, but the coefficient of government expenses for poor nations is negative. On this basis, it can be said that governments have a significant and undeniable role in promoting the level of happiness in society by improving the quality of governance and reducing the misery index in the economy. Also the significance of gross domestic production and economic growth should not be ignored.

In the Iranian economy, which has experienced various sanctions, it was necessary to anticipate macroeconomic variables when imposing new sanctions. On the other hand, in the context of sanctions, it is possible to make a more accurate assessment of economic policies in order to be able to respond in a timely manner to these shocks and the need for appropriate planning and security against them. Therefore, in the present study, a macroeconomic model with Mixed-frequency data sampling  has been used,While having a high accuracy in prediction, it is possible that when new information about multivariate variables is obtained, based on it, the previous prediction for the dependent variable of the pattern is revised. The model consists of 27 behavioral equations, 8 communication equations and 33 definitional and union relations and the parameters of the model are estimated using time series data in the period 1338 to 1396. Predictive results show that the use of new observations in high frequency variables in the model has led to improved accuracy in predicting the endogenous variables of the model.

Due to the undesirable phenomenon of graduate unemployment and its negative effects, Addressing the issue of how to major choice is of particular importance. The main question of the research is whether the existing signals of choosing a field have been effective in guiding people in accordance with the needs of the labor market? The method of this research is descriptive-analytical; It has been a combination of documentary studies, qualitative statistical analysis (descriptive statistics) and analytical statistics (cross-sectional econometrics). The findings of this study, which was conducted using the data of the years (2006-2018) and controlled by the province and the type of university, show in major choice of volunteers, no attention is paid to the unemployment rate of that field. The non-significance of the unemployment rate coefficient in the above model confirms the hypothesis that the unemployment rate of the field (main independent variable) does not explain the registration rate in that field (dependent variable), Therefore, the unemployment rate of the field in any of the six fields, in any type of universities and in any of the provinces, has no significant effect on the rate of major choice. According to the theoretical and experimental background of research in many other countries, there is a problem and weakness and they have followed solutions for it.

Many governments face a trade-off between health and economy during the coronavirus pandemic. Social distancing and lockdown caused decline in gross domestic product of coronavirus affected countries. In this study, by using the input-output table of 2011, the hypothetical extraction method is used to extract 10 selected economic activities hypothetically from economic system and examine the direct and indirect effect of this extraction on Iran’s gross output. Results show that extraction of passenger transport, aviculture and clothing sectors result in the greatest reductions in gross domestic product. Furthermore, extraction of accommodation services, travel agency and tour operator activities and foodservice industry as representative of the tourism sector is able to reduce total output by almost one percent. Considering these ten selected sectors, 6.5 percent of Iran’s total economic output would be impacted by coronavirus outbreak.

Considering the challenges related to estimating and forecasting the expected Shortfall dynamically and with a semi-parametric approach, in this study, providing a general framework, dynamic semi-parametric models in forecasting Expected Shortfall in Tehran Stock Exchange be introduced and evaluated. In this regard, the data of the period 2008.12.04-2020.08.26 and Generalized Autoregressive Score (GAS) approach are used to introducing dynamic semi-parametric models (GAS-2F, GAS-1F, GARCH-FZ and hybrid). Then expected Shortfall (ES) in Tehran Stock Exchange be estimated  and forecasting performance of these models are compared with traditional models in this field, including GARCH models and rolling window models based on backtesting their results. The results of this study indicate better performance of dynamic semi-parametric models in forecasting the expected Shortfall (ES) than competing models. In addition, the GAS-1F model has shown the best performance among all models.

In recent decade in developing countries, lack of government budget or lack of access to modern technology, persuade governments to attract private sector participation in the economy. One of the most common methods is Public-Private Partnership agreements. The real implementation of this type of partnership needs to set contracts that satisfies preferences of both parties. This research aims to solve this problem using the solutions available in the Contracts Therory Knowledge. Theoretical modeling with analyzing public-private partnership model, provide an optimal model for BOT contract. We use library method to explain the basic contract and mathematical modeling  by MATLAB software with Particle Swarm Optimization to specify the parameters of utility functions and to provide optimal contract.  The simulation results for an optimal contract were calculated using the supposed parameters (life time, incom, costs, future incoms discount rate, salvage value of project costs) 38 years (project utilization time), 78% (principal participation after transfer time), 45% (principal participation during the operation), 7% (riskes to the principal). The results showed that  these parameters are fully matched with the theoretical properties of the model and the principals utility is maximum beside the agent participation.