فصلنامه اقتصاد کشاورزی
سال پانزدهم شماره 3 (پاییز 1400)

Yield per hectare of pistachios is decreasing both in the whole country and in Kerman province and especially the yield per hectare in Kerman province is very low. (Hasanisadi, 2019) showed that the current cost of pistachio production per hectare is 29944000 and the capital cost of pistachio production per hectare is 48225000(10 Rials). Considering the yield per hectare of 435 kg for Kerman province and the average selling price of 100000 (10 Rials) for each kilogram of pistachios, the gross production income is estimated at 435.5 million(10 Rials), which is less than the total production cost and slightly higher than the current production costs. Under these conditions, pistachio production faces an uncertain future. Based on the results of this study in 2018, the liquidity available to 71% of pistachio growers, who have 27% of the area under cultivation of pistachio orchards in Kerman province is negative. This limited liquidity makes it impossible for the mentioned gardeners to pay the management costs of their production and as a result, their production productivity has decreased in the studied years. Decreasing production productivity on the one hand and increasing production costs and the cost of providing necessities of life on the other hand cause these unfavorable conditions to continue. Therefore, the phenomenon of the vicious cycle of poverty exists in most of the pistachio growing areas of Kerman province and has intensified over time.

The scope and complexity of activities in food supply chains has exposed this networks to more negative risks, so that decision makers and business actors in this chains are forced to identify and evaluate the risks correctly and also adopting the necessary policies to reduce the likelihood of risks occurrence and severity consequences. The purpose of this study is to investigate and measure the supply chain performance in real conditions under different risks and to analyze it with using agent-based simulation. For this purpose, milk supply chain was studied in Zahedan city during 2018 and 2019 period. In this study, the theoretical sampling method of Strauss and Corbin was used. A regular series of purposefully in-depth and semi-structured interviews was conducted with a group of 24 experts and specialists related to the chain to extract qualitative data. Identified 61 risks in the chain in the field research were initially evaluated using the Failure Mode, Effects and Criticality Analysis, then, the active chains in the region was simulated with the agent-based modeling approach and using Net Logo software, and 27 risk reduction scenarios were examined to evaluate the changes in the performance indicators of the chain. Regarding the validation of the results of simulation tests, paired (t) test was performed and also the results of 30 independent replications of the model was compared with each other. Among the identified various risks in the chain, price fluctuations of agricultural inputs (seeds, fertilizers, labor, etc.), milk price fluctuations and lack of information had the most negative impact on chain performance and as a result of appropriate measures such as the use of marketing and futures contracts and other local tools that reduce the level of risk from high to medium level in the chain, some other performance indicators of the chain can be improved while increasing the overall revenue of the chain.

Due to the problems and diseases caused by pollutants due to the existence of industrial centers in Ardakan city, it is necessary to find solutions such as installing air filters, taxing pollutants and increasing fuel prices to eliminate or reduce pollution, according to the profitability of companies in To be considered. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to provide a solution to green tax to reduce environmental risks. In this study, Contingent Valuation method was used in the form of two-dimensional technique and logit econometric model. Also, to collect data from 608 questionnaires in order to pay people in 1396 in two parts: air pollution caused by factories and installation of signs and banners in the city to encourage people to use public transport and identify vehicles with defects Have technical, was used in Ardakan city. The results showed that the willingness of people to pay to reduce air pollution from factories is 32800 Rials and to reduce air pollution from transportation is 28650 Rials per person per month. The variables of car air pollution fines and rising fuel prices have a positive and significant effect on people's willingness to pay. Also, the variables of the proposed amount and income are the most important influential factors in both sectors. In total, the amount of green tax resulting from the two polluting sectors of industry and transportation in Ardakan city is 72,235 million rials per year, which can be used to establish non-governmental organizations to reduce air pollution.

The aim of the present study is to determine an economic optimal of wheat production and import, by considering the existing risk conditions in Iran. For this purpose, the Goal Programming model was used in order to study several goals simultaneously. The goals considered in this research include the goals of profit, production risk and price risk. The data required for this study was collected from the Statistics Center of Iran, Ministry of Jihad Agriculture, Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) in 2020 and GAMS software was used to estimate the results. The results of the study showed by considering all the objectives, for Irrigated wheat, the provinces of Khuzestan, Fars, East and West Azerbaijan, Ardabil, Khorsan Razavi and North, Kurdistan, Kermanshah, Golestan, Lorestan, Hamedan, Ilam, Bushehr, Isfahan, Markazi and Sistan and Baluchestan and for dryland wheat, the provinces of East and West Azerbaijan, Kurdistan, Khuzestan, Ardabil, Zanjan, Khorasan Razavi, Golestan were considered as producers. Based on the results, Khorasan Razavi and Kurdistan provinces with cultivated area equivalent to 886371.5 and 509971.3 had the highest cultivated area for irrigated wheat and rainfed wheat, respectively. Also, according to the results, Australia, Kazakhstan, Russia, Switzerland, the United Arab Emirates, the Netherlands, Austria and Germany entered in the final model as importers of wheat. According to the results of the study, in order to achieve self-sufficiency, it is recommended that policy makers provide incentives for reallocation of wheat in these provinces. According to the results of the study, in order to achieve the goal of self-sufficiency and complete elimination of imports based on the desired perspective of the country, it may be recommended that producers and policy makers move towards the provinces included in the model. Also, considering the impact of risk in decision making, the development of risk management tools is suggested.

Changing the pattern of production has been known as the basis of all the developments that have taken place in economic revolutions since the beginning of human life. Therefore, the root of all the problems of developing countries can be traced to their production patterns. The knowledge-based revolution has transformed all economic and social relations in recent decades, providing developing societies with a unique opportunity for growth and development. But no revolution in itself encompasses all societies, and the use of the capacities created requires adaptation to the new pattern of production. Kermanshah province has significant capacities in the agricultural sector. However, due to the traditional production model, which is inefficient and has low productivity, agricultural activities in this province have little achievement. The present study is dedicated to designing a Pattern for the realization of knowledge-based agriculture in Kermanshah province. To achieve the research goal, the qualitative method of Grounded theory based on a systematic approach, including the three main stages of open coding, axial coding, and selective coding, has been used. The required information has been collected through 31 in-depth and purposeful interviews with agricultural experts. Findings show that Technological development is at the heart of knowledge-based agriculture. Attitudes towards knowledge-based agriculture, legal procedures, and inefficient management processes are among the most important factors hindering Technological development. Training Experts of Agriculture- Jahad Organization and farmers, financial support for small enterprises, and reforming the business regime to support knowledge-based companies will help achieve the realization of knowledge-based agriculture in Kermanshah province.

In recent months, the price of chicken meat has risen sharply, endangering the welfare of consumers; On the other hand, rising input prices have created several problems for producers. Given the problems that exist along the supply chain of this product and due to the large number of activities and agents involved in this chain; In this study, a system thinking approach has been used to investigate the challenges of the chicken meat supply chain.Two types of complexity, including combinatorial complexity and dynamic complexity can occur in systems such as the supply chain of the agricultural products. Combinatorial complexity is due to the presence of different elements or actors in the system; while dynamic complexity can occur even in the simple systems due to the interactions between agents over time (Sterman, 2000). Van Mai (2010) believes that system thinking is a appropriate approach for analyzing complex systems and identifying leverage points for intervention because it can investigate the interrelationships among several subsystems. Therefore, in this study, it was used system thinking approach to investigate interrelationships among agents of chicken supply chain actors in Iran.In this study, the relationships between chain agents were extracted in the causal loop diagram and then, the system archetypes were identified. The causal loop diagram includes 6 reinforcing loops and 14 balancing loops. Identified archetypes also includes balancing process with delay, fixes that fail, shifting the burden and escalation. Fixes that fail and shifting the burden archetypes showed that the livestock input import policy has not been helpful to regulate the domestic market. It has only made the system accustomed to supply the needed livestock input through imports and abandoned basic solutions. In addition, the corn and soybean meal import policy has not been effective in decreasing corn price and soybean meal price, because of the lack of monitoring on imported corn and soybean meal distribution.