نشریه آینده پژوهی دفاعی
پیاپی 23 (زمستان 1400)

At present, the production of data related to individuals, companies, and especially the data of citizens and its use, is growing rapidly. Today more than ever on the Internet, travel, leisure, business, and in almost every aspect of daily life, we leave a digital footprint, and this data provides great potential value to consumers, companies, government and security organizations. In the digital age, it is easy to use a wide range of citizens' data and information for broader purposes and subjects that were not anticipated in the past. Unforeseen events in the future, such as the outbreak of Corona, can also have a profound impact on the use and sharing of citizens' data and change public attitudes towards the issue. In the present research, with the statistical community including experts related to the subject and 12 statistical samples, while using the scenario method, four future scenarios about citizen data systems are presented, which express global norms, business models, international laws and governments' approaches to Citizens' data can be developed and made significant changes. In some scenarios, there is convergence in data governance, and data moves more freely around the world. In others, governments take more divergent and often more restrictive approaches, and data is increasingly localized; Therefore, in the atmosphere of future uncertainty, while recognizing that international cooperation is inevitable, national data management is also vital, and we must take the path that best ensures national security and the interests of our country.

The rapid changes in technology in the world today have had a dramatic effect on the defense sector. Undoubtedly, these effects will face future complexities. Maintaining the defensive authority and enhancing military capabilities requires a full understanding of the future environment. In fact, it is necessary to know the future orientations of these technologies. In order to understand this orientation, it is necessary to analyze the trends that draw the future atmosphere. Therefore This research has identified the trends of defense technologies. In this approach, what is important is how the future of the research subject is. It is necessary to recognize these orientations, to be precise in the processes that may take shape or events that will occur.  In this study, after reviewing documents and library studies, to identify the future trend of defense technologies, the semi-structured interview method with defense experts has been used, and for data analysis, the deductive content analysis method has been used. In the interviews, 7 trend-driven trends were identified and their consequences were evaluated over a ten-year horizon. These processes include: development of intelligent technologies (smartening), growth of cyber technologies, popularization of unmanned systems and automation, increasing growth of space technologies, increasing use of convergent technologies, increasing use of Internet (IoT), growth of new energies.

Business clusters evolve as a spatial focus of firms with shared opportunities and threats in a nonlinear behavior, with a multiple feedback mechanism between cluster actors, and require attention to ambidexterity- exploiting of current capabilities and exploring future opportunities- in order to survive in a complex and competitive environment. In recent decades, the harsh sanctions of the arrogant powers have been one of the obstacles to accessing the world's latest technical knowledge and technology to help economic growth and development, which has been considered a source of serious controversy in reducing the competitiveness of enterprises. In this study, in order to investigate the issue of sanctions in interaction with other actors, information collection through reading articles, policy documents, reports and receiving expert opinions through interviews has been considered. Due to the complexity of this conflict, using a game theory model called the graph model, the interactions and preferences between different actors in the business cluster are modeled and the most probable results are presented. According to the analysis, the government, business clusters and scientific and research centers have an improved equilibrium point, but there is no preferential financing for the centers to change the current situation.

Each warrior and leader tries to anticipate is what the future war will be like. With such knowledge or anticipation of what is the next, leaders can shape and plan for success in the next conflict. Bearing this fact in mind that the future warfare, there is two types of threats for every single country: 1- confronting regional countries threat 2- confronting non-state actors. In this study, researchers want to propose the requirements of ground to ground short range missile systems of Army to confronting both types of threats mentioned above.In this study, were used in order to analyze and prioritize cure methods, statistical methods and Analytic Hierarchical Process (AHP). For solving MCDM in fuzzy environment, in this paper, researchers will use AHP for prioritization missile systems by the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process based on grade value of membership function. Generally, we are given scores by experience of experts to represent judgmental objects. In this paper, from view point of many experts, we will build membership functions of judgment criteria for all sub-items. When the membership function is built, we can calculate the grade value by data of missile performance. From the results of first step, we reached sub-items priorities of requirements of ground-to-ground short-range missile system to confronting both regional countries and non-state actors by analytic hierarchy process method. In the next step we used statistical method to technical analysis and propose ways of developing missile systems by each sub-item.

Understanding the position of championship sports in the Armed Forces and the amount of its indicators is very important for managers and hierarchies in this field. Some of the important affairs of the organization, such as the sports budget, decisions and macro-policies of the organization, hiring staff and selecting individuals for some missions based on training, are adopted according to the extent and level of these indicators. The main purpose of this research is to present a software model based on human knowledge of experts and its development by ANFIS. Judgmental sampling method was used to determine the experts, including 21 managers, professors and officials of AJA sports field. AJA championship sports indices were finalized by confirmatory factor analysis. Based on the indicators, AJA sports venues are evaluated by experts from very low to very high. The received data contains a matrix of 210 items. The data matrix is used by considering the modeling default in MATLAB software with Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). To evaluate the performance of the model, the squared parameters of mean square error (RMSE), relative error percentage (ε), mean absolute error (MAE) and coefficient of determination (R2) were used. The values of each are were 0.047, 0.92, 0.066 and 0.889, respectively, which indicate the accuracy and reliability of the model. This research is applied in terms of purpose and survey type according to the data collection method. Based on the model sensitivity test, indicators 7, 8, 9, 10 and 11 are more important and effective depending on the level of the organization.

Cyber ​​threats against the Islamic Republic of Iran have been on the rise in recent years. Cyberspace, although after land, sea, air and space, is considered as the fifth dimension of military battles, but due to major differences such as; Very rapid, widespread and continuous changes, user anonymity, borderlessness, chaos and its combination with other dimensions of warfare, compared to other operational environments, have unique features. The main purpose of this article is to achieve the country's cyber defense strategies against the enemy's cyber threats in the horizon of 1405. Deals with cyber defense technologies. This applied and developmental research, its research method is mixed from case-context type, documentary data collection and survey method and its tools are interviews and statistical population of 60 people, which uses SWOT matrix to analyze indoor and outdoor environment and formulate strategies and TOPSIS software was used to determine the prioritization of the country's cyber defense strategies against the enemy cyber threats and its most important strategy is localization and smarting  of the country's cyber software and hardware systems in terms of processes, systems, standards, protocols, procedures and procedures using power and capacity. The purpose of the country's universities and research centers is to protect and increase cyber deterrence against enemy threats and cyber attacks.