فصلنامه پژوهش های رشد و توسعه اقتصادی
پیاپی 46 (بهار 1401)

The impact of export diversification and export composition, as two major parts of export section, on economic growth (case study of Iran) are the major purposes of this paper. To extracting technology level of export basket, bases on SITC 3 digit codes, as our innovation, we use TCC Systerm software to convert Iranian export HS data to SITC. Using FMOLS for 1992-2017 duration, we studied the effect of export diversification and its composition on Iranian economic growth. We found that one percent decrease in export diversification leads 0.158 percent decrease in economic growth, and also one percent increase in share of high-technology exports leads to 0.39 percent increase in economic growth. Therefore, it is necessary to establish Iranian non-oil export promotion strategy on both new comparative advantage creation and high technology products.

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the mechanism of monetary transmission through the asset price channel in financial development. In this regard, the impact of monetary policy through housing price and stock price channel has been evaluated by using seasonal data of 110 economic variables during 1991:1-2016:4 and FAVAR model. The results of the impulse response functions indicate that in the medium-term and long-term housing price channel increased production, but also had significant inflationary effects in the short and medium term. Also, given the significant impact of the stock price channel on production, it can be said that the capital market has an important role in directing resources and funds towards productive activities, which ultimately increases investment and production. Based on the results and the significant role of the stock price channel in transmitting monetary shocks to the price level, it can be said that this channel plays a significant role in reducing inflationary effects of monetary policy.

Achievement to higher levels of economic welfare has always been one of the strategic purpose of developing countries. Despite of the large number of studies done in the field of cognition factors affecting economic welfare indicators there is still no general agreement on the main factors influencing. This research shows that a large part of cause is ignoring the technology gap between developing and developed countries. Because of welfare in developing countries is strongly influenced by technology imports from developed countries. The present study investigates the effect of foreign R&D spillovers on the welfare of sanctioned countries during the period 2000 to 2016 using the econometric method of data panel estimation. TheF results show that the interaction effect of foreign R&D spillovers on human capital has a positive and significant effect on Sen’s Social Welfare Index and a 1% increase in the interaction of foreign R&D spillovers on human capital leads to a 10% increase in Sen’s Social Welfare Index. Also, government expenditures, per capita income and inflation have a positive and significant effect on Sen’s Social Welfare Index, and each percent increase in these variables leads to 9, 94 and 19 percent increase in Sen’s Social Welfare Index, respectively. The dummy variable of sanction has a negative relationship with the Sen’s Social Welfare Index, but its coefficient is not significant.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of financial development and tax on the size of the underground economy. The importance of this is because the large size of the underground economy of the three channels has a negative impact on the economy, first the diversion of economic data; second, the ineffectiveness and effectiveness of the state's economic policies; and third, because of the possibility of escaping Tax payments and non-compliance with legal requirements in the underground economy are in the interests of national interests, producers and households. Therefore, any policy that leads to a smaller underground economy is key. In this research, a model (TVP-FAVAR) with the aim of investigating the effect of financial development and tax evasion on the underground economy of Iran along with other related variables has been specified. For this purpose, time series data were used in the period 1350 to 1394 and two tools of instantaneous and cumulative response functions. The results of this study indicate that the underground economy's dynamics in response to the financial development shock has been a decreasing trend and increasing terms of tax evasion shock.

Although taxes have always been a major source of funding for governments and an effective tool for the government to achieve its goals, these important tools have led to disruptions in the economy and have led to widespread differences among economists. It has been about the role and size of government in the economy. The purpose of this paper was to investigate the Impact of tax revenues on macroeconomic variables. The model parameters are estimated using seasonal adjusted time series data for the period 2009-2010. To estimate the bizarre parameters of the model, the previous standard distribution, mean, and deviation of the parameters must first be determined. The parameters are calculated. The results of the model estimation showed that the revenues from VAT have a positive and significant effect on the economic growth of different provinces. Also, the amount of intermittent growth rate of GDP per capita in the provinces has a positive and significant effect on the economic growth rate of this year and also the variable of bank credit, investment rate, has a positive and significant effect on economic growth rate. Also, the variable of investment and government spending has a positive and significant effect, but the inflation rate has a significant and negative effect on economic growth. The results also showed that a short-term tax shock has a negative impact on economic growth and consumption, but in the long run, with an increase in tax revenues, GDP growth and, consequently, consumption and investment in the economy have increased.

The main purpose of the present study is to investigate the effects of currency regimes on economic growth with emphasis on the role and intermediation of inflation in Iran in different business cycles. In this regard, using the Markov Switching method in the period 1340-1394, the objective has been studied. The estimation results show that the Iranian economy has three regimes, moderate growth and high economic growth, so that the moderate growth regime should use a fixed exchange rate regime، to increase economic growth by increasing stability and increasing investment. During the recession and in the range of -0.16 to 14% of inflation, the fixed system is suitable and in the rest of the floating-rate inflation rates it is suitable for economic growth by increasing the competitiveness of domestic products against foreign products that have been weakened due to inflation Estimated results for high growth period show that in the inflation range of 5 to 44%, the floating system has the best performance for economic growth due to increased competitiveness of domestic production against foreign products.

The globalization of the economy, the increase in the volume of international investment, and the openness of trade have opened the door of countries economic to the foreign shocks and it has increased the negative effects of these shocks on economic growth. Therefore, increasing economic resilience to counteract the negative effects of these shocks has become a policy priority in different countries, and in the meantime, identifying the factors affecting economic resilience can help policymakers to make the right policies. Therefore, the present study attempted to investigate the impact of goods market efficiency, labor market efficiency and financial market efficiency on economic resilience in two groups of developing and developed selected countries during the period 2014-2018. For this purpose, the research model is estimated using panel data approach and generalized moment method separately for the two groups of selected countries. The results showed that the effect of goods market efficiency, labor market efficiency and financial market efficiency on economic resilience in both groups of selected countries is positive and significant. However, the estimated coefficient of goods market efficiency and labor market efficiency in developing selected countries and the estimated coefficient of financial market efficiency in developed selected countries have been higher. Also, the impact of control variables of institutional quality and innovation on economic resilience in both groups of selected countries is positive and significant.