فصلنامه سیاستهای مالی و اقتصادی
سال نهم شماره 35 (پاییز 1400)

Since the Industrial Revolution, capitalism has undergone numerous financial, economic and banking crises. Financial, economic, and banking crises are fundamentally apprehensive and there is a need to review, analyze and develop appropriate policies for prevention and management of crises. In this research, in addition to measuring the financial crisis index based on the method proposed by Jing et al. (2013), the Logit econometric model was used to estimate the model. we investigate the effect of size of government and commercial openness on the banking crisis in Iran during the period of 1350 to 1396. The results show that government size has a positive and significant effect on the banking crisis. In fact, increasing the size of the government will lead to an increase in the banking crisis. For this reason, the role of the government in the economy should be reduced, or at least the government intervenes in the necessary cases of economics, because reducing the size of the state in the economy will increase investment and economic growth. The degree of trade openness has had a negative and significant impact on the banking crisis, and in fact, the degree of openness of the business has reduced the banking crisis. Given these results, it is suggested that Iran, in pursuit of accession to the World Trade Organization, pursue a policy of commercial openness, including a gradual reduction of imported tariffs at a higher pace, in order to create more employment opportunities.

In 1979, Tirlwall introduced a model called the Balance of Payments Equilibrium (BOPE) model, stating that demand growth could be curbed by the balance of payments deficit, thus limiting further economic growth. The important point in examining the Tirlwall law is the important role of oil exports in providing foreign exchange resources and the important role of these resources in the balance of payments in oil-rich countries such as Iran. The aim of the present study, in the first step, is to validate the Tirlwall model by estimating the balance of payments equilibrium growth in the Iranian economy during the period (1982-2018) by using the Kalman Filter approach in the form of a Time-Varying Process (TVP). This method is able to consider the structural changes of the economy that affect trade elasticities and include them in the model. Then, the factors affecting the growth rate of BOPE in the Iranian economy have been studied by examining 10 related explanatory variables. For this purpose, Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) technique has been used. The advantage of this method is in increasing the quality of average estimation and solving the problem of uncertainty due to model specification and instability of coefficients. The results of the study show that in general in the Iranian economy, the Tirlwall law is not valid and therefore the balance of payments does not limit effect on economic growth in Iran. Also, in examining the factors affecting the growth rate of BOPE, this study emphasizes the importance of the direct and indirect effect of aggregate demand on the income elasticity of imports and export growth through capital accumulation (especially fixed asset investment).

Due to the increase in food prices and limited access to qualified food resources, the impact of various factors on different food price distribution multiplexes was studied in this paper using the quantile regression approach with having capability of identifying nonlinear relationships. This study examines the effect of macro and policy variables such as agricultural value-added, exchange rate, money supply, world food price index, and government support index on Iran's food price index in the period 1383:1 to 1398:4. The results indicate that; the world food price index and exchange rate have a significantly positive non-linear impact on the food price index in all distribution quantiles. While the value-added of the agricultural sector and the government support index have a negative non-linear effect on the dependent variable. All variables in all quantiles had the same sign throughout the distribution, but the intensity of their effect was variable. The effect of the money supply variable was also significantly positive in all quantiles and has a downward slope which shows the existence of a non-linear relationship between this variable and the dependent variable. This variable has had the greatest effect in the first quantiles of food inflation, which shows that this variable is more effective than other variables in lower inflation.

The study of the asymmetric effects of real wages on the employment rate as one of the performance variables of the industrial sector in the theoretical and experimental literature of industrial economics in recent years has been considered by economists in this scope. Therefore, in this paper, by using of nonlinear NARDL approach, the asymmetric effects of real wages on the employment rate of the industrial sector in Iran during the period 1986-2019 have been examined. The empirical results of model estimation indicate that the effect of real wages is asymmetric on the employment of Iran's industrial sector in the short and long term. On the other hand, increasing the real wage of the industrial sector in the long run has a negative impact and decreasing it has a positive and significant effect on the employment rate of this sector and the error correction coefficient also indicates the speed, above the adjustment of short-term error towards equilibrium and long-term value. The value added variable of the industrial sector and economic sanctions also have a positive, negative and significant effect on the employment of the industrial sector in the long run, respectively. Based on the findings of this study, it is suggested that economic policy makers and the industrial sector increase employment through increasing production capacity. Furthermore, controlling the inflation rate can reduce the employment costs of employers and producers in the industrial sector and help increase labor demand and employment.

Today, with the expansion of globalization and increasing competition, the issue of exports to create a competitive advantage, economic growth and prosperity for companies has become more important than ever. In this study, in addition to helping to complete the theoretical literature, especially in the statistical community, we intend to help export companies to pay more attention to intangible resources and make better use of knowledge absorption  capabilities and help improve their performance. The statistical population of this study includes all active industrial export companies in Urmia. In this study, to test the hypotheses, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was used to test the normality of the data and data analysis was performed by structural equation modeling based on partial least squares (Smart-PLS3) and (SPSS26). The results showed that intangible resources have a positive and significant effect on knowledge absorption capabilities, innovation and export performance. Knowledge absorption capabilities also have a positive and significant effect on innovation and export performance. Finally, the innovation variable plays a mediating role between intangible resources and export performance; This also happens in the ability to absorb knowledge and export performance

The main aim of this paper is to investigate the indicators affecting the establishment of a real time performance-based budgeting system in Iran. Given that the results of this study can be used in the development of budget rules and regulations based on public sector performance, it is practical research. To achieve this purpose, a questionnaire consisting of 28 questions was designed by researchers through interviews with experts. Research information was collected in the form of a questionnaire that was distributed electronically and manually and referred directly to the statistical population in the form of 310 questionnaires during the year 1400. The empirical results of the exploratory analysis test showed; In terms of environmental factors; Legal requirements, political acceptance and rules and regulations (transparency and accountability), reform of the structure and duties of the program and budget organization and attention to social and communication capital in terms of human factors; Motivational and managerial policies and organizational factors; Existence of a comprehensive database, infrastructure and information technology (such as organizational design and the existence of integrated systems with an integrated reporting approach) from the perspective of information technology, elimination of valueless activities, value- chain reform, optimal use of organizational resources from a process perspective and the establishment of strategic planning system, accounting and auditing system (management performance and From the point of view of performance planning and management, it is one of the main effective factors in establishing real time reporting performance-based budgeting in the public sector of Iran.