نشریه آینده پژوهی ایران
سال ششم شماره 2 (پاییز و زمستان 1400)

The higher education system, like other sections of Iranian society, is strongly influenced by the changes taking shape and taking place in the global sphere. The reflection of these changes can be seen in a range of constructive and destructive influences. The purpose of this article is to find out how to deal with these changes and the degree of readiness to take advantage of opportunities and reduce the impact of threats from change requires foresight. The occurrence of a crisis such as Covid-19 pandemic indicates that being affected by changes is a universal principle and it includes all societies, regardless of the level of development of the countries and the difference is in the extent to which it is affected by the change and influences its process. Therefore, the main question of this article is: what priorities and strategies for the futures studies of higher education research in Iran should be considered in the face of global changes in science and technology?

Trend analysis in the study of global developments in science and technology; interview, brainstorming, and expert panel for receiving the opinion of experts of the Iranian scientific and technological community regarding the future developments of higher education in Iran; scenario method for presenting alternative futures have been used.

The results show that there will be four determinants of the future of higher education in Iran at the same time: social responsibility and accountability of the institution of science; achieving national and international reputation and influence; transformation in education and participatory governance.

From a futures studies point of view, stakeholder participation in identifying factors of change, visioning futures, and how to create preferable future situations are key factors in the validity and reliability of the data obtained. In other words, reality, social responsibility, and future-orientation alongside data-driven decision-making are essential for the governance of higher education in Iran.

This study was conducted to identify future scenarios in the field of media literacy and to explore alternative futures in Iran.

Scenario planning or scenario designing with exploratory approach has been the research method. It is conducted in several steps from identifying factors affecting the future of media literacy to discovering future uncertainties, creating scenario logic, describing scenario narratives, strategic identification and analysis of opportunities and threats relating to each scenario and ultimately identifying strategies for the future in relation to each scenario.

In this study, with the experts opinion analysis, 30 factors affecting the future were identified and analyzed perceptually/cognitively.

The results of the study indicate the importance of factors such as "the need to attach media literacy to executive and educational laws and policies", "coordination of media literacy educators with scientific institutions and associations", "cooperation of media literacy professionals in government policy", "managers of different levels consider media literacy as one of the vital skills of life, "radio and television accreditation to the audience" and thus identification of two critical uncertainties as "audience-orientation" and "Elitism" that form the scenarios for the future of media literacy in Iran.

The pace of development of digital technologies is such that media organizations are constantly amazed, and this has made the momentum in the media industry complex and intense. Therefore, in order to properly deal with developments, media managers need to have a picture of the possibilities ahead in order to be able to avoid surprises by making preconceived decisions. Today, without scenarios or clear images of possible futures, one can not plan. In this research, we have identified the factors affecting the future of the international news network and described its scenarios over a ten-year horizon.

Scenario writing was done by Schwartz "GBN" method and purposive sampling method. Fourteen experts participated in the study, which was sufficient based on the principle of theoretical saturation.

The two factors of the degree of professionalism of news network management and the degree of political trust were the key uncertainties of the research.

In this study, 4 scenarios were described: flying at the peak, flying with weak wings in the blue sky, broken in the storm, open wings and powerful but in the storm and blind. And based on expert panel recommendations; The following topics were described: planning to promote political trust, managing the digitalization process, adapting to the network paradigm, planning for the realization of the learning organization, and investing in the production of short news videos.

Medical Device Industry (MDI) has a special role in the health and economy of the country, but scattered and little domestic researches are devoted to it. This study was conducted with the aim of comprehensively identifying the factors, drivers, and key uncertainties affecting MDI and mapping its future scenarios; Because it is the necessity of programming to support domestic production of medical devices and remove its barriers.

The research was conducted by a similar to Schwartz's critical uncertainty scenario method. By interviews and questionnaire tools in three Delphi rounds, required data were gathered and encoded by qualitative method. Here, the related experts were selected by snowball technique in a purposeful way until the stage of saturation of opinions.

In this paper, the main drivers affecting the next 20 years of the country's MDI were obtained. By identifying the three main axes; the lifting of the (economic) sanctions of US, the growth of R&D in companies, and the reduction of economic corruption, among the key drivers, based on their high importance and uncertainty, five scenarios; Prosperity, Dependence, Hope, Resistance, and Destruction were written.

Future scenarios for the technology-based industries such as MDI show the importance of the supportive requirements for the R&D pillar. In these scenarios, the continuation of economic sanctions increases the cost of economic activities in the industry and the reduction of economic corruption is faced with considerable uncertainty. Therefore, the three factors are the drivers for desired future scenarios of the MDI up to 2040.

culture is one of the most important social and economic elements. abstract jurisprudence as a part of religious culture, if properly recognized and in the social arena, can now be the source of unique impacts that ensure the health of the community. the aim of this study is to explain and explain the link and relationship between the juridical rules (pride, cooperation, احسان)and social capital indices (including trust, participation and social cohesion).

this paper is one of qualitative research that has been conducted in documentary style with the study of jurisprudence in jurisprudence literature as well as texts associated with the concept of social capital.

The results indicate that there is no social behavior formed in a vacuum. therefore, the behavior of man is always affected by insights and attitudes that people believe. the jurisprudence rules, which are rooted in the teachings of religion, have witnessed great power in the increase of indigenous social capital which can accelerate and accelerate the growth of the capital

islamic rules emanating from islamic teachings are meta - and meta - analytic teachings that observe and implement them in the different space of individual and social life leads to consistency and accumulation of social capital. it can be said that in many jurisprudence rules without explicitly mentioning social capital, examples, content and provisions can be found to emphasize this.

The present study was developed scenarios for recruitment and training teachers in Iran for next 15 years.
Mehtods: Recent study placed among applied and qualitative research methods and done with combination of two futures research methods; content analysis and scenario making. First, a list of driving factors was prepared from content analysis and semi-structured interviews with experts provided to be weighed according to the importance and degree of uncertainty by expert panel, Second, Selected factors placed in cross impact balanced analysis (CIB) method and global business network (GBN) scenario making so until scenarios were obtained. Participants in this study were 15 professors and principals of Farhangian University, professors of educational sciences, experts of Ministry and Council of Education, and school principals.

In order to scenario making, 9 driving factors from content analysis and interview extraction were weighted by the panel in terms of importance and uncertainty, and three factors were type of approach (national, international or integrated), ideology (quarantine or Society ideology) and technology (continuation of the current trend and rapid growth of technology) received the highest scores. Among 12 possible scenarios, four scenarios and their characteristics were extracted; aquarium environment, lake environment, river environment and ocean environment and their characteristics were extracted. 

The results of the present article shows that need to get out from the existing closed and quarantined space and pay more attention to using all the capacities of education and higher education and make more use of international achievements to improve the teacher education system. At the same time, due to the process of building a national version of teacher training, interaction and tolerance of tensions is inevitable.

The aim of this study was to explain the loyalty history of education staff using fuzzy logic.

The research was conducted in terms of applied purpose and in a combined (quantitative-qualitative) way. The statistical population consisted of 1200 staff members, teachers and directors of education in Qazvin province, based on the Cochran's formula, 292 people were selected as the sample size in the fall of 1399. In order to collect data, two methods were used: documentary (library, dissertation, Internet) and field (completion of a researcher-made questionnaire) and in interviews, indicators such as gender, education, age were considered. Formal validity and reliability were obtained by Cronbakh's test. Data were analyzed using inferential factor analysis (confirmatory factor analysis and structural equation modeling) with MICMAC software. PLS software was used. Finally, in order to provide the desired combination of model dimensions in order to optimize employee loyalty, mathematical modeling method was used.

The results of the qualitative section showed that 23 components and 47 indicators in the form of 5 dimensions extracted had a positive effect on the loyalty of education staff. The results of a small part showed that the model had a good fit (GOF = 0.39) and according to the fuzzy modeling method, if a proper relationship is established between the personal, professional and organizational dimensions, employee loyalty will be increased by 58%.

Creating an appropriate relationship between the components of personal, job and organizational conditions can predict the needs and values ​​of employees in government organizations and improve their motivation, commitment and dynamism.

The study of future images is one of the topics of interest in the interdisciplinary field of futures studies. Some of the world's leading futurists, including Fred Polak, Jim Dator, Wendell Bell, Sohail Inayatullah, and others, have focused on studying future images. Cinema is one of the main sources of future images. In this article, the technology image that has been constructed in animated film "Tehran 2121" will be analyzed, that show Iran a century later.

The method used is discourse analysis, applying its critical aspect in an attempt to deconstruct future images.

Discourse analysis showed that this film is a reproduction of the discourse of Technophilia and even Technologism that has a long history in Western science-fiction cinema. Therefore, by borrowing the concept of "used future" from Sohail Inayatullah, it can be claimed that the film, suggests the “used future” of the West cities for the future of Tehran. This used future in the past decades considered as the future of major cities in the world, especially in USA and other leading countries. At the same time, an attempt has been made to cover up this fundamental imitation by giving Islamic-Iranian appearance to the film.

In such films, only the aspects of technical, attractive special effects and advanced cinematic techniques are not important, and beyond that, we should pay attention to the images that can be created in the audience.

The purpose of this study is to identify the drivers that will affect the sustainable development of rural tourism in Urmia city in the future.

In this regard, the research method is descriptive-analytical with a heuristic approach to futures research. For this purpose and first of all, the drivers were identified using the Delphi technique through the presence of 20 specialists and experts who were purposefully selected; and then, using Mick Mac software, the relationships and how they work and their effectiveness were identified.

From 42 factors, 36 factors were considered in the end, which according to the high impact score and direct impact, finally 12 factors (income from tourism, competitiveness, employment in tourism, investment in Tourism, diversity of tourism opportunities, awareness of local community and tourists, sense of tourist confidence, increasing the culture of tourism, land use change due to tourism, tourism spaces, infrastructure, welfare services) as the output of Mick Mac in the future development of sustainable rural tourism of Urmia are influential.

As a result, it is hoped that by recognizing the capabilities and limitations, planning for tourism in the villages of Urmia will take a better course.

The purpose of this study is to identify and determine future organizational strategies in the Imam Khomeini Relief Committee.

In terms of methodology, it is a combination (qualitative - quantitative) study. In the first stage, organizational strategies were extracted by grounded theory method through open coding, axial coding and selective coding and then were confirmed after accreditation by nine experts of university professors. In the second stage, using Dematel technique, the causal relationships, effect, influence, direction and intensity of the effects were identified.

The evaluation of Dematel technique has shown that the e-government development strategy is the most effective and the promotion of administrative health is the most effective. Productivity promotion strategy (organization and human resources) among the eleven research strategies has the most relationship or interaction with other strategies. Also, out of eleven strategies, four strategies are causal variables and seven strategies are disabled variables.

The research findings show that the four strategies of streamlining the administrative system, developing e-government, improving productivity and economizing the services of the organization as causal variables are the most effective strategies that help the Imam's Relief Committee in the future. Through them, it can effectively manage the deprived and the needy. Accordingly, the researcher has localized these strategies by segregating and nationalizing organizational strategies, and has determined the most compatible strategies for managing public organizations in the future by influencing and designing an appropriate impact map between the strategies.

Knowledge-based agriculture and technology development at its heart are now recognized as one of the most important factors shaping development in societies such as Iran. The application of knowledge in agricultural activities is expected to help curb crises such as food shortages, freshwater scarcity, environmental problems, and significantly improve productivity. Before answering the question of what sciences or technologies are suitable for the realization of knowledge-based agriculture in a society, it is necessary to address its prerequisites. The present study was designed to identify the future drivers of knowledge-based agriculture in Kermanshah province.

This article is based on structural analysis method. The key factors were identified in the first step through in-depth and purposeful interviews with 31 agricultural experts in the province. Finally, the data were analyzed by Mic Mac software. In this step, the panel method was used.

14 factors were identified as the driving forces of the realization of knowledge-based agriculture in Kermanshah province.

Findings show that the development of knowledge-based agriculture in Kermanshah province needs to review national variables such as political orientations, formal institutions, and government support and regional variables such as education, reform of decision-making and management processes.

The core of land use planning is to guide and strive to influence land use change. Guiding these changes requires identifying and analyzing the relationships and effects of driving forces. In recent years, several factors of the historical context of Yazd city led to the change of residential land use to warehouse, industrial and other land uses. On the other hand, with the global registration, the implementation of local plans and the entry of tourists, residential uses have become commercial and tourism uses. These rapid and uncontrolled changes could pose a threat to the preservation of cultural and historical heritage in the future. 

This research is of applied, mixed and survey type. In order to extract land use change factors from library resources and to analyze and identify key factors and drivers of land use change in the study sample, Delphi technique and interaction analysis method in MICMAC software have been used.

Land use change factors are presented based on the number of interactions in 4 categories of driving factors, two-way, independent and dependent actors of dominant economic role of the city, government and local policies, access to the road network, international competitiveness, proposals for upstream projects, building wear, demand for any type of use or activity, dependence on oil economy and trade and land rent are the driving factors and key factors. That any change in these factors causes a change in other factors and any change in the system causes a change in these factors.

The registration of Fahadan historical neighborhood on a global scale has led to rapid changes and the formation of uncertainties in its land use. Uncertainty and intermediate state of most factors lead to an unstable pattern of land use system in this neighborhood in the future.