فصلنامه راهبرد اقتصادی
پیاپی 36 (بهار 1400)

In this article, we take a new approach to simulating and modeling the dynamic system of foreign trade using the theory of control and system engineering. First, we examine the dynamic model of government budget, imports, domestic production, and then by designing a controller based on determining the amount of imports by the government to control the amount of tariffs to support domestic production, finally simulating the model in the form of Different scenarios are discussed. Various conditions in the field of foreign trade require a proper analysis and understanding of the performance of the executive arms of the government in this important economic field. Therefore, with a common perspective in the fields of engineering and economics, we have analyzed the situation. The results of this model indicate that the variable customs tariff is a very important control to support domestic production, if this tool is not used properly, it can act as an obstacle to the growth of domestic production.

This study examines the impact of the facility structure for bank profitability in Iran, using panel data over the period 2005-2019. The method used in this study is Panel ARDL.In order to achieve this objective, of all the private banking institutions, we have chosen 9 banks that allocate their banking facilities in the form of Islamic contracts. Given that Installment sale and civil partnership, respectively, with 29/71% and 37/44% of total loans accounted for the largest share of banking facilities.Thus, in this study, in order to study the profitability of the banks, the variables above were considered as representatives of the sector of facilities. Also, the profitability criteria used include return on equity (ROE), return on assets (ROA) and net interest margin (NIM).The results of this study show that there is a positive and significant relationship between civil partnership and ROA in the short and long term, and between Installment sale and profitability measures ROA and ROE there is a negative relationship.According to the results, it is suggested that balancing the various types of contracts in the granting of facilities by the banking system. Also, given the lower profitability of exchange contracts for banks, an independent section under the supervision of the central bank is created to determine the rate of profit to encourage people to use the facilities above.

This paper examines the institutional and economic barriers to entrepreneurship development in Iran and the role of government in moderating them. For this purpose first using the grounded theory(GT) model and the relationships between the variables are examined and then, using a SEM technique, the model is estimated and the hypotheses are tested. The results of the GT model showed that a total of 27 main concepts can be mentioned as obstacles to entrepreneurship development in Iran. Thus, the 10 concepts of political, cultural, legal, educational, technological environment, government structure, macroeconomics, financial environment, geographical environment and production structure are causal conditions that are under two categories of institutional and economic factors. 7 concepts of efficiency, opportunity, creativity, risk-taking, need for success, desire for independence and power-seeking Entrepreneurs under the category of characteristics of entrepreneurs are the underlying conditions of entrepreneurship development. In addition, 7 concepts of creating a legal framework, drawing special policies, infrastructure development, culture building, providing special services, industry relations and financial aid, under the category of government role, conditions of intervention of the lack of entrepreneurship development and finally, the three concepts of reducing economic growth, increasing poverty and income inequality and reducing the employment rate are the consequences of lack of entrepreneurship development. The results of SEM showed that the government can play a significant moderating role between causal conditions (institutional and economic barriers) and lack of entrepreneurship development in Iran and increase the positive effect of institutional and economic barriers on lack of entrepreneurship development.

cting the export supply of methanol petrochemical product to export destinations (UAE, Turkey, China and India) using self-distributed vector regression model (ARDL) Abstract Iran, as the fifth country in the field of crude oil production and the second largest gas producer in the world, is prone to the growth and development of the petrochemical industry, as the largest exporter of non-oil products, has a significant role in economic prosperity. From this point of view, considering the sanctions on crude oil exports in recent years and the problem of crude oil sales, it is important to pay attention to this industry as an effective factor in circumventing sanctions and currency for the country, developing the country's economic strategy and achieving sustainable economic development., Turkey, According to the studies, the factors that have affected the supply of Iranian methanol exports can be referred to as GDP of target countries, real exchange rate, exchange rate fluctuations, trade liberalization, price exchange relationship, refinery feed prices and sanctions as livestock variables. . In this study, the real exchange rate volatility index was estimated using the GARCH model and then the export supply model of Iran's methanol product was estimated by ARDL method. According to studies, the variables of GDP and trade liberalization have a positive and significant effect on the supply of Iranian exports in the short and long term, but other variables have a negative and significant effect on the supply of Iranian exports in the short and long term.

The purpose of this article is to review and evaluate the financial stability in the Iranian economy for the period 2009-09-1991 under Monetary Policy and Macroprudential Policy. For this purpose, an attempt was made to address this issue at both micro and macro levels. At the micro level, using the Generalized method of moments (GMM), the effects of monetary and macroeconomic policies in four different modes on the risk-taking of the country's banking network were evaluated. At the macro level, a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model was used to investigate the effects of these two policies on housing prices and stock prices. The results confirm that, firstly; To regulate banks' risk-taking, monetary and macro-prudential policies contrary to the periodicity of business cycles should be used. Thus, the relationship between the rate of legal reserves as an indirect monetary instrument at the disposal of the country's monetary authority with the level of risk-taking of banks was positively and statistically significant. In this sense, with the increase of the legal reserve rate (apply a tight monetary policy), the interest rate will increase and this will increase the riskiness of banks. Also, increasing the deposit rate as a macro-prudential policy tool has been associated with reducing the riskiness of banks. Secondly; tight monetary policy has the potential to deter rising housing and stock prices, although the extent of this impact is not significant compared to other factors affecting the prices of both housing and equity assets.

Prior to the 2008 crisis, economists paid little attention to the role of the bubble and its detrimental effects on the real sector of the economy; But with the crisis, it became clear that the effect of the bubble in asset markets was not limited to nominal effects and could severely affect the real sector of the economy. Accordingly, the main purpose of this study is to investigate the existence of bubbles in the housing market and also to identify the exact time of its origination and collapse. In this regard, using the quarterly data of Tehran housing market in the period 1372: 1 to 1399: 3 and also using the new approach of Philips and Shi (2018), the existence of bubbles in this market was tested. The results of this study indicate that there is a price bubble in the housing market in some time periods in our sample. Examination of the real price as well as the price-to-earnings ratio indicates that there have been periods in our sample that have had very similar characteristics to bubble periods. The results obtained from the Phillips and Shi test also confirm this and indicate that the Tehran housing market has witnessed a price bubble in 1381, 1397, 1398 and 1399. Graphical analysis of bubble collapse periods also shows that after these periods, real prices in the housing market have decreased significantly. This is exactly in line with price behavior in bubble periods and confirms the results of previous tests.