نشریه جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی محیطی
سال سی و سوم شماره 2 (پیاپی 86، تابستان 1401)

Saffron is a very popular medicinal plant and the most expensive spice in the world. It is highly considered in traditional medicine for the treatment of varied diseases. From among Iranian agricultural crops, it is one of the most valuable products. Due to its special characteristics, its production and export can be developed. As the largest producer and exporter of saffron in the world, Iran accounts for more than 90% of global saffron production. In 2018, more than 71% of the global export of saffron belonged to Iran. Lorestan Province is becoming one of the important areas for cultivating this crop due to its natural conditions and farmers’ interest. This study tried to identify the factors affecting the sustainable development of this crop. For this purpose, during the two consecutive years of 2017 and 18, 3 regions in Kuhdasht, Kuhnani, and Khorramabad townships were selected, in which 5 sample farms were chosen based on the field research. The selected farms had a planting history of 1 to 5 years. Several quadrants were established in the farms and the phenological measurements were recorded based on them. The statistics of these farms were collected to determine the required yields. The means and ANOVA comparisons were applied to analyze the results. The studied parameter was farm age from 1 to 5 years in the 3 regions of Kuhdasht, Kuhnani, and Khorramabad townships. In this investigation, saffron flower characteristics and dry weights of stigma were determined simultaneously with daily phenological inspections of the farms. The results in both years revealed that age was the major factor in yield change in all the 3 regions in a way that saffron yield increased with increasing farm age up to 4 years and then decreased. The effects of farm age on saffron flower and stigma yields were statistically significant. It was found that the lowest and highest yields were respectively related to the 1-, 2-, and 5-year-old farms and 3-year-old farms with a peak yield for the 4-year-old farms. During the study of the role of temperature in the two consecutive years, it was observed that the average temperature had been higher in 2017 and thus the flowering duration had decreased. Accordingly, saffron yield in this year compared to 2018 showed a smaller value, which indicated the role of temperature in yield enhancement during the flowering period. Yield differences were significant in the 3 studied regions. The highest and lowest yields were related to Kuhnani and Khorramabad farms, respectively.

The purpose of the current study is to analyze the frequency of peak flood discharge with a 100-year return period in 206 Iran watersheds and to quantify it based on the most important factors. In this regard, flood frequency analysis was performed based on annual maximum discharge data and fitting of conventional continuous distributions in hydrology and fitting statistical tests. Then, for modeling, 8 parameters affecting the flood peak discharge including heavy daily rainfall, average vegetation, area, perimeter, average slope, average elevation, length of the main river, and the slope of the main river at the catchment area leading to the extraction of selected hydrometric stations. Also, the stepwise regression analysis technique was used to determine the factors affecting the production of flood peak discharge in the selected stations. The results of the study showed that the southwestern, southern, and southeastern basins of Iran with peak discharges of more than 4000 m3/s had the highest 100-year peak discharges among the study basins. The results of the stepwise regression model indicated that five parameters of area, heavy rainfall, elevation, vegetation, and slope of the basin with an adjusted coefficient of determination of 0.72, standard error of estimation of 132.7, Akaike's information criterion of 1.62, and variance inflation factor of 0.62 had the best performance in estimating the flood peak discharge. The results of this study, considering its large spatial scale, which includes the whole of Iran, can be used as a practical guide by the hydrologists and decision-makers in estimating the 100-year flood peak discharge in ungauged watersheds based on the most important factors affecting its generations.

The purpose of this study was to model and predict temporal and spatial patterns of land-use change in the Zayandehrud basin. In this research, the CA-Markov prediction model was used to simulate and predict land-use change. First, the land-use changes from 1996 to 2018 were studied and then the future changes for 2030 and 2050 were simulated. Afterward, the future land-use scenarios were designed. The model was validated by comparing the simulated map of 2018 with the real map, and the kappa coefficient of 94 % was utilized to evaluate the model. Based on the results, the Built-up land-use was altered from 13016 hectares in 1996 to 154194 hectares in 2050. This outcome necessitates the management of the future development of the city. Furthermore, the amount of agricultural land was varied from 177067 hectares in 1996 to 40,000 hectares in 2050. Among all the changes, agricultural lands attracted the most attention and concerns. The results indicated the land-use changes in the form of urban areas and reducing area of agricultural lands. Such alterations were taken place in two distinct stages: urban lands have been developing since 2013, with a direct impact on the reduction of vegetation due to the conversion of agricultural lands into other land-uses. The dynamic trend of changes has also been confirmed and intensified since 1996. In 2018, a significant area of agricultural lands was converted into urban and industrial areas. In addition, the agricultural and orchard lands were 74057 hectares in 2018 and can be reduced to 40,000 hectares by 2050. It revealed 34057 hectares lost as compared to the agricultural and orchard lands in 2018. The present study depicts that the expansion of urban and industrial activities and reducing the level of agricultural land in the region requires more attention and care in land management.

Community-based tourism is an approach to achieving sustainable tourism that focuses on community productivity. Being productive in the context of a society in the field of community-based tourism requires active participation, which is greatly influenced by the cultural atmosphere of the society. For this purpose, the present study has identified and prioritized the cultural challenges of tourism stakeholder participation in Iran. Initially, nine major challenges were extracted based on domestic and foreign literature and localized and prioritized using the SWARA method based on the integration of the opinions of seven tourism, urban, and academic affairs experts. Structural relationships between challenges were performed using interpretive structural modeling, in which challenges were balanced at five levels. The DEMATEL method was used to confirm the results. According to the findings of the present study, among the cultural challenges of community-based tourism, the inefficiency of mass media and lack of sense of belonging had the most impact and lack of trust and limited interactions, ambiguity, and indifference of individuals had the most interaction with other challenges, respectively.

The idea of ​​resilience of different social, economic, physical, and managerial orientations has entered urban and regional studies on a large scale. This resilient system can absorb temporary or permanent crises and adapt to rapidly changing conditions without losing its function. Among these, resilience against natural disasters can be explained by how social, economic, institutional, political, and executive capacities of societies affect the increase of resilience and understanding of its dimensions in the society. Environmental crises, such as earthquakes, floods, fires, and climate pollution, have caused environmental vulnerability in cities and consequently created threats to their securities, especially in District 20 of Tehran City. By recognizing the dimensions of vulnerability in District 20 of this city against environmental crises, management strategies can be developed to reduce vulnerability and risks and enhance resilience. For this reason, the main purpose of this study was to evaluate resilience of the neighborhoods in District 20 of Tehran City against environmental crises. To achieve this goal, the Fuzzy Multi-Criteria Decision Model (FMCDM) and K-mean method of classification were used.

To identify and assess the resilience of District 20 of Tehran against environmental crises, a database was created based on the crises and its spatial information was prepared in 4 criteria and 26 sub-criteria. After creating the spatial database of the mentioned district and compiling the criteria and sub-criteria, a layer of information was prepared in ArcGIS software and a distance map was drawn for each sub-criterion through Euclidean distance mapping in order to measure and manage the resilience. Then, fuzzy operators were applied to draw each fuzzy map (subscale) with a value between 0 and 1. Analytic Network Process (ANP) method was utilized to weight and evaluate the research criteria and sub-criteria. Next, the map of each criterion and sub-criterion was drawn by combining the Euclidean distance and fuzzy operators multiplied by their fuzzy weights obtained from the ANP model in ArcGIS software. Thus, the final map was prepared for each criterion and sub-criterion, which showed their values of resilience to the environmental crises. Then, fuzzy superimposing operators were applied to superimpose the fuzzy weighting maps and a superimposed map of 26 sub-criteria (4 criteria) was obtained for each fuzzy operator. To identify the best fuzzy operator by superimposing the research sub-criteria, analysis of spatial relationships between the independent variables and the dependent variable was done through the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression. Finally, the classical K-mean clustering method was employed to classify the neighborhoods from the perspective of resilience to environmental crises.

The results showed that the weights and values of the socio-economic criteria, road infrastructure, land use and accessibility in resilience measures were 0.49, 0.23, 0.16, and 0.11, respectively. In the socio-economic, road infrastructure, land use, and accessibility criteria, the sub-criteria of house strength, pedestrian bridge, access to social places, and access to medical centers with the weights of 0.33, 0.43, 0.32, and 0.29 had the highest values in resilience. Among the fuzzy superposition operators, the algebraic addition operator (SUM) had the highest correlation with the research criteria in identifying the resilience of the neighborhoods. The northeast and southeast neighborhoods, as well as the central neighborhoods of District 20 of Tehran, were the most resilient neighborhoods to environmental crises. In the final step of the current research, the classical K-mean method was used to cluster the existing neighborhoods in District 20 of Tehran City based on their resilience to environmental crises. The results revealed that the neighborhoods were divided into 3 clusters. In the first cluster showing a lot of patience, the neighborhoods of Javanmard Qassab, Mansouria and Mangal, Hamzehabad, Sartakht, Ibn Babavieh and Zahirabad, Taghiabad, and Abbasabad were located. In the second cluster indicating moderate tolerance, Dolatabad and Shahadat, Sadeghieh, Shahid Ghayuri, Deilman, Aqdasiyeh, Estakhr, and Alain neighborhoods were situated. Finally, the neighborhoods of Sizdeh Aban, Shahid Beheshti, Firoozabadi, Valiabad, and Hashemabad were located in the third cluster with poor productivity.

Environmental crises, such as earthquake, flood, drought, air and water pollution, and fire, have the potential to become harmful in areas where there are no crisis management and risk mitigation. In the 21st century, the world has been hit by such environmental crises as Asian tsunamis, Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, successive earthquakes, flash floods, desert dust storms, and widespread fires. Although predictive tools are able to predict some disasters, future crises cannot be forecast based on empirical evidence. Therefore, increasing the ability of a system called resilience is very important for responding to such crises; yet, its resilience must first be measured. In the present study, the resilience of District 20 of Tehran City to environmental crises was evaluated based on socio-economic, road infrastructure, land use, and accessibility criteria. The results of this modeling led to the extraction of 3 clusters for the resilience of the neighborhoods of District 20 of Tehran against environmental crises. The neighborhoods in the west region had the highest resilience compared to the urban areas.

Creative city theory is a new approach whose milestone is the emphasis on creativity and culture in the economy and social capital. Historical contexts, in addition to having the aesthetic and identifying values of cities, are still the livelihood of millions of citizens and are therefore a good place to apply the creative city approach. The present study was conducted to explain the model of the creative city approach in the historical context of the Hamadan city, which has been done by the survey technique and the analytical-interpretive method. Initially, the evaluation indicators of the creative city, which were extracted from reliable sources, were classified into five structures: ‘socio-cultural’, ‘economic’, ‘managerial’, ‘functional-spatial’, and ‘environmental’. Then, the opinions of people and experts were collected through a questionnaire. Next, the data of the questionnaire were entered into SPSS software and with the help of the exploratory factor analysis technique which was applied separately in each of the above structures, the explanatory factors were identified. Then, using the linear multivariate regression analysis technique, the relationship between the extracted factors and the creative city approach in the historical context of Hamadan was assessed. Finally, the indicators of ‘women’s participation in social activities’, ‘the importance of knowledge-based service centers’, ‘historical events of the city’, ‘people's participation in social activities’, ‘the need to use new and knowledge-based technologies’, and ‘supporting urban entrepreneurs’ were identified. The elements have had the greatest impact on the realization of the creative city approach in the historical context of Hamedan.